Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient.

Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests.

An ephemeral sexual population of Phytophthora infestans in the Northeastern United States and Canada.

Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of late blight disease, has been reported in North America since the mid-nineteenth century. In the United States the lack of or very limited sexual reproduction has resulted in largely clonal populations of P. infestans. In 2010 and 2011, but not in 2012 or 2013, 20 rare and diverse genotypes of P. infestans were detected in a region that centered around central New York State. The ratio of A1 to A2 mating types among these genotypes was close to the 50∶50 ratio expected for sexual recombination. These genotypes were diverse at the glucose-6-phosphate isomerase locus, differed in their microsatellite profiles, showed different banding patterns in a restriction fragment length polymorphism assay using a moderately repetitive and highly polymorphic probe (RG57), were polymorphic for four different nuclear genes and differed in their sensitivity to the systemic fungicide mefenoxam. The null hypothesis of linkage equilibrium was not rejected, which suggests the population could be sexual. These new genotypes were monomorphic in their mitochondrial haplotype that was the same as US-22. Through parentage exclusion testing using microsatellite data and sequences of four nuclear genes, recent dominant lineages US-8, US-11, US-23, and US-24 were excluded as possible parents for these genotypes. Further analyses indicated that US-22 could not be eliminated as a possible parent for 14 of the 20 genotypes. We conclude that US-22 could be a parent of some, but not all, of the new genotypes found in 2010 and 2011. There were at least two other parents for this population and the genotypic characteristics of the other parents were identified.

Components of reproductive isolation between North American pheromone strains of the European corn borer.

Of 12 potential reproductive isolating barriers between closely related Z- and E-pheromone strains of the European corn borer moth (Ostrinia nubilalis), seven significantly reduced gene flow but none were complete, suggesting that speciation in this lineage is a gradual process in which multiple barriers of intermediate strength accumulate. Estimation of the cumulative effect of all barriers resulted in nearly complete isolation (>99%), but geographic variation in seasonal isolation allowed as much as approximately 10% gene flow. With the strongest barriers arising from mate-selection behavior or ecologically relevant traits, sexual and natural selection are the most likely evolutionary processes driving population divergence. A recent multilocus genealogical study corroborates the roles of selection and gene flow (Dopman et al. 2005), because introgression is supported at all loci besides Tpi, a sex-linked gene. Tpi reveals strains as exclusive groups, possesses signatures of selection, and is tightly linked to a QTL that contributes to seasonal isolation. With more than 98% of total cumulative isolation consisting of prezygotic barriers, Z and E strains of ECB join a growing list of taxa in which species boundaries are primarily maintained by the prevention of hybridization, possibly because premating barriers evolve during early stages of population divergence.