Temporal Trends in Noncardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Following Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Due to improved management, diagnosis, and care of myocardial infarction (MI), patients may now survive long enough to increasingly develop serious noncardiovascular conditions. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating the temporal trends in noncardiovascular morbidity and mortality following MI. METHODS: We conducted a registry-based nationwide cohort study of all Danish patients with MI during 2000 to 2017. Outcomes were cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality, incident cancer, incident renal disease, and severe infectious disease. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2017, 136,293 consecutive patients were identified (63.2% men, median age 69 years). The 1-year risk of cardiovascular mortality between 2000 to 2002 and 2015 to 2017 decreased from 18.4% to 7.6%, whereas noncardiovascular mortality decreased from 5.8% to 5.0%. This corresponded to an increase in the proportion of total 1-year mortality attributed to noncardiovascular causes from 24.1% to 39.5%. Furthermore, increases in 1-year risk of incident cancer (1.9%-2.4%), incident renal disease (1.0%-1.6%), and infectious disease (5.5%-9.1%) were observed (all P trend <0.01). In analyses standardized for changes in patient characteristics, the increased risk of cancer in 2015 to 2017 compared with 2000 to 2002 was no longer significant (standardized risk ratios for cancer: 0.99 [95% CI: 0.91-1.07]; renal disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.15-1.41]; infectious disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.23-1.34]). CONCLUSIONS: Although cardiovascular mortality following MI improved substantially during 2000 to 2017, the risk of noncardiovascular morbidity increased. Moreover, noncardiovascular causes constitute an increasing proportion of post-MI mortality. These findings suggest that further attention on noncardiovascular outcomes is warranted in guidelines and clinical practice and should be considered in the design of future clinical trials.

Frailty, Treatments, and Outcomes in Older Patients With Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Registry-Based Study.

Background Guidelines recommend that patients with myocardial infarction (MI) receive equal care regardless of age. However, withholding treatment may be justified in elderly and frail patients. This study aimed to investigate trends in treatments and outcomes of older patients with MI according to frailty. Methods and Results All patients aged ≥75 years with first-time MI during 2002 to 2021 were identified through Danish nationwide registries. Frailty was categorized using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score. One-year risk and hazard ratios (HRs) for days 0 to 28 and 29 to 365 were calculated for all-cause death. A total of 51 022 patients with MI were included (median, 82 years; 50.2% women). Intermediate/high frailty increased from 26.7% in 2002 to 2006 to 37.1% in 2017 to 2021. Use of treatment increased substantially regardless of frailty: for example, 28.1% to 48.0% (statins), 21.8% to 33.7% (dual antiplatelet therapy), and 7.6% to 28.0% (percutaneous coronary intervention) for high frailty (all P-trend <0.001). One-year death decreased for low frailty (35.1%-17.9%), intermediate frailty (49.8%-31.0%), and high frailty (62.8%-45.6%), all P-trend <0.001. Age- and sex-adjusted 29- to 365-day HRs (2017-2021 versus 2002-2006) were 0.53 (0.48-0.59), 0.62 (0.55-0.70), and 0.62 (0.46-0.83) for low, intermediate, and high frailty, respectively (P-interaction=0.23). When additionally adjusted for treatment, HRs attenuated to 0.74 (0.67-0.83), 0.83 (0.74-0.94), and 0.78 (0.58-1.05), respectively, indicating that increased use of treatment may account partially for the observed improvements. Conclusions Use of guideline-based treatments and outcomes improved concomitantly in older patients with MI, irrespective of frailty. These results indicate that guideline-based management of MI may be reasonable in the elderly and frail.

Risk and trajectory of premature ischaemic cardiovascular disease in women with a history of pre-eclampsia: a nationwide register-based study.

AIMS: Pre-eclampsia increases women's lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Little is known about the trajectory of CVD after pre-eclampsia, limiting the usefulness of this knowledge for informing screening, prevention, and interventions. We investigated when the risk of CVD increases after pre-eclampsia and how the risk changes over time since pregnancy. METHODS AND RESULTS: This register-based study included 1 157 666 women with >1 pregnancy between 1978 and 2017. Cumulative incidences of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and ischaemic stroke were estimated, as well as hazard ratios (HRs) by attained age and time since delivery. Up to 2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.46-2.82%] of women with pre-eclampsia in their first pregnancy had an AMI or stroke within two decades of delivery, compared with up to 1.2% (95% CI: 1.08-1.30%) of pre-eclampsia-free women; differences in cumulative incidences were evident 7 years after delivery. Ten years after delivery, women with pre-eclampsia had four- and three-fold higher rates of AMI (HR = 4.16, 95% CI: 3.16-5.49) and stroke (HR = 2.59, 95% CI 2.04-3.28) than women without pre-eclampsia; rates remained doubled >20 years later. Women with pre-eclampsia aged 30-39 years had five-fold and three-fold higher rates of AMI (HR = 4.88, 95% CI 3.55-6.71) and stroke (HR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.95-3.36) than women of similar age without pre-eclampsia. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of pre-eclampsia have high rates of AMI and stroke at early ages and within a decade after delivery. The findings suggest that pre-eclampsia history could be useful in identifying women at increased risk of CVD and that targeted interventions should be initiated soon after delivery.

Women with a history of pre-eclampsia constitute a high-risk subgroup of women who would benefit from additional clinical monitoring while still comparatively young. Up to twice as many women with a first pregnancy complicated by pre-eclampsia develop acute myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke within 20 years of delivery compared with women without pre-eclampsia in their first pregnancy (2 vs. 1.2%).Relative risks of acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke were greatest in women aged 30­39 years and within a decade of pre-eclampsia but remained substantial even <20 years later and in older women.

Incidence of myocardial infarction, heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality in patients with peripheral artery disease: trends between 1997 and 2016.

AIMS: Over the past decades, there have been improvements in the management of cardiovascular (CV) disease and risk factors. Long-term contemporary data on the population-level incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and CV mortality in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are sparse, which we aim to investigate in this study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Danish nationwide registers were used to identify all patients aged ≥18 years, with first diagnosis of PAD between 1997 and 2016. Age-standardized incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person-years were calculated to estimate trends of MI, HF, and CV mortality. The risk of MI, HF, and CV mortality was estimated by 1-year cumulative incidence with death as the competing risk. A total of 131 568 patients with PAD were identified [median age 70.67 (interquartile range, IQR, 61-78) years and 53.05% males]. The IRs showed increasing trends of MI until 2002, with an estimated annual percentage change (APC) of + 0.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.3-16.1, P-value 0.2]. After the year 2002, MI incidence persistently decreased until the study end with an estimated APC of -5.0 (95% CI 3.7-6.3, P < 0.0001), HF declined with an estimated APC of -3.3 (95% CI 2.0-4.6, P < 0.0001); and CV mortality declined, with an APC of -3.5 (95% CI 3.0-4.0, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The incidence of MI (since 2002) and HF in patients with PAD has significantly decreased over time, together with a decline in CV mortality. Our results suggest that preventive strategies have overall improved, most likely due to improvements in the application of guidelines in clinical care.

Long-term mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding in stable patients 1 year after myocardial infarction: a Danish nationwide study.

AIMS: Outcomes after myocardial infarction (MI) improved during recent decades alongside better risk factor management and implementation of guideline-recommended treatments. However, it is unknown whether this applies to stable patients who are event-free 1 year after MI. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with first-time MI during 2000-17 who survived 1 year free from bleeding and cardiovascular events (n = 82 108, median age 64 years, 68.2% male). Follow-up started 1 year after MI and continued through January 2022. Crude risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding were estimated in consecutive 3-year periods. Standardized risks were calculated with respect to the distribution of age, sex, comorbidities, and treatments in the latter period. Guideline-recommended treatment use increased during the study period: e.g. statins (68.6-92.5%) and percutaneous coronary intervention (23.9-68.2%). The crude 5-year risks of outcomes decreased (all P-trend <0.001): Mortality, 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-19.2) to 12.5% (CI: 11.9-13.1); Recurrent MI, 7.5% (CI: 7.1-8.0) to 5.5% (CI: 5.1-6.0); Bleeding, 3.9% (CI: 3.6-4.3) to 2.7% (CI: 2.4-3.0). Crude 5-year risk of mortality in 2015-17 was as low as 2.6% for patients aged <60 years. Use of guideline-recommended treatments was associated with improved outcomes: After standardization for changes in treatments, 5-year risk of mortality in 2000-02 was 15.5% (CI: 14.9-16.2). CONCLUSIONS: For patients who were event-free 1 year after MI, the long-term risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and bleeding decreased significantly, along with an improved use of guideline-recommended treatments between 2000 and 2017. In the most recent period, 1 year after MI, the risk of additional events was lower than previously reported.

Temporal trends in major cardiovascular events following first-time myocardial infarction in the reperfusion era - a Danish nationwide cohort study from 2000 to 2017.

AIM: We investigated temporal trends in major cardiovascular events following first-time myocardial infarction (MI) and trends in revascularization and pharmacotherapy from 2000 to 2017. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using nationwide registries, we identified 120 833 Danish patients with a first-time MI between 2000 and 2017. We investigated 30-day and 1-year mortality and the 1-year risk of first-time admission for heart failure (HF) and recurrent MI. Patients were younger with a higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in 2015-2017 compared with 2000-2002. The patients were predominantly male (65.6%), and the median age declined by 3 years through the periods. Percutaneous coronary interventions within 7 days after first-time MI increased significantly (2000: 11.4% vs. 2017: 68.6%; Ptrend < 0.001). Cardiovascular medication after first-time MI changed significantly in the same period. Absolute risks and adjusted rates of outcomes were significantly lower in 2015-2017 compared with 2000-2002: 30-day mortality: 6.5% vs. 14.1% [hazard ratio (HR) 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.48-0.55); 1-year mortality 10.7% vs. 21.8% (HR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.50-0.55); recurrent MI: 4.0% vs. 7.8% (HR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.51-0.62); and first-time admission for HF: 2.9% vs. 3.7% (HR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.73-0.92). The rates of 30-day/1-year mortality and recurrent MI showed significantly decreasing trends (Ptrend < 0.001). The rates of first-time admission for HF were borderline significant (Ptrend = 0.045). CONCLUSION: From 2000 to 2017, we observed a decreasing risk of recurrent MI, first-time admission for HF, and all-cause mortality in patients with a first-time MI. In the same period, we observed a high rate of guideline-recommended pharmacological treatment after first-time MI as well as increasing rate of early revascularization in Denmark. TRANSLATIONAL PERSPECTIVES: The results from the current study portrait the risk of all-cause mortality, recurrent MI, and first-time admission for HF in a real-life setting with a very high utilization of early revascularization and guideline-recommended pharmacological therapy. We observed a temporal trend of improved survival, reduced risk of recurrent MI, as well as reduced risk of first-time admission for HF after first-time MI from 2000 through 2017. We observed an increase in the overall use of revascularization, as well as early revascularization and use of guideline-recommended pharmacotherapy. Our study reveals important results from real-life, nationwide data, showing a reduced risk of cardiovascular outcomes after first-time MI during the past 20 years. Current guidelines are based on results from clinical trials. Our real-life results add additionally important knowledge on patients' prognosis after first-time MI and underline the importance of treating MI according to guideline recommendations.

Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among patients with cardiovascular disease in Denmark, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination protects against morbidity and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to describe influenza vaccine uptake in patients with CVD in a universal-access healthcare system. METHODS: Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with prevalent CVD, defined as heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), or stroke during three consecutive influenza seasons (October-December 2017-2019). The outcome was relative frequency of influenza vaccination across strata of patient characteristics. RESULTS: There was an average of 397 346 patients with CVD yearly during 2017-2019. Vaccine uptake was 45.6% for the whole population and ranged from 55.0% in AF to 61.8% in HF among patients aged ≥65 years. Among patients aged <65 years, uptake was 32.6% in HF, 19.0% in AF, 21.1% in IHD, and 18.3% in stroke. There was a lower uptake with decreasing age: 21.6% in HF, 5.5% in AF, 7.4% in IHD, and 6.3% in stroke among males aged <45 years, as opposed to 25.5% in HF, 11.5% in AF, 13.8% in IHD, and 12.1% in stroke for males aged 45-54 years. In the further stratified analyses, uptake ranged from a low of 2.5% for males <45 years with AF who were not vaccinated the previous season to a high of 87.0% for females ≥75 years with IHD who were vaccinated the previous season. CONCLUSION: Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake is suboptimal among patients with CVD, even in a universal-access healthcare system with free-of-charge vaccinations. Vaccine uptake was particularly low among young patients.

Age- and sex-specific trends in the incidence of myocardial infarction in Denmark, 2005 to 2021.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few studies have determined whether the declining incidence of myocardial infarction carries into the current decade, and how it is affected by age and sex. We aimed to determine age- and sex-specific changes in myocardial infarction incidence in Denmark from 2005 through 2021. METHODS: First-time myocardial infarction admissions in adults aged ≥18 years were identified through Danish nationwide registries. Incidence rates per 100,000 persons with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated across calendar year, sex, and age groups (≤49, 50-69, 70-84, ≥85 years). We also presented incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CIs for 2019-2021 compared to 2005-2007. RESULTS: From January 1, 2005, through August 4, 2021, there were 116,481 incident acute myocardial infarctions in approximately 4.5 million Danes aged ≥18 years. Overall incidence rate of myocardial infarction per 100,000 persons decreased in both sexes from 2005 through 2021 (females: 143 to 80; males: 243 to 174) and across all age groups. The steepest declines in incidence were observed for ages ≥85 years (males: 55%, IRR: 0.45 [0.41-0.49]; females: 58%, IRR: 0.42 [0.39-0.45]) and 70-84 years (males: 46%, IRR: 0.54 [0.52-0.57]; females: 52%, IRR: 0.48 [0.46-0.51]). Rates also declined significantly for ages 50-69 (males: 19%, IRR: 0.81 [0.79-0.84]; females: 17%, IRR: 0.83 [0.78-0.88]) and ≥49 years (males: 30%, IRR: 0.70 [0.64-0.76]; females: 37%, IRR: 0.63 [0.54-0.74]). CONCLUSIONS: Declines in the incidence of myocardial infarction continued into the current decade across age groups and sex. However, significantly steeper absolute and relative declines were observed among the oldest age groups (≥70 years).

Simple cardiovascular risk stratification by replacing total serum cholesterol with anthropometric measures: The MORGAM prospective cohort project.

To assess whether anthropometric measures (body mass index [BMI], waist-hip ratio [WHR], and estimated fat mass [EFM]) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and to assess their added prognostic value compared with serum total-cholesterol. The study population comprised 109,509 individuals (53% men) from the MORGAM-Project, aged 19-97 years, without established cardiovascular disease, and not on antihypertensive treatment. While BMI was reported in all, WHR and EFM were reported in âˆ¼52,000 participants. Prognostic importance of anthropometric measurements and total-cholesterol was evaluated using adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression, logistic regression, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUCROC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). The primary endpoint was MACE, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from coronary heart disease. Age interacted significantly with anthropometric measures and total-cholesterol on MACE (P ≤ 0.003), and therefore age-stratified analyses (<50 versus ≥ 50 years) were performed. BMI, WHR, EFM, and total-cholesterol were independently associated with MACE (P ≤ 0.003) and resulted in significantly positive NRI when added to age, sex, smoking status, and systolic blood pressure. Only total-cholesterol increased discrimination ability (AUCROC difference; P < 0.001). In subjects < 50 years, the prediction model with total-cholesterol was superior to the model including BMI, but not superior to models containing WHR or EFM, while in those ≥ 50 years, the model with total-cholesterol was superior to all models containing anthropometric variables, whether assessed individually or combined. We found a potential role for replacing total-cholesterol with anthropometric measures for MACE-prediction among individuals < 50 years when laboratory measurements are unavailable, but not among those ≥ 50 years.

Trends in Use of Cardioprotective Medication in Peripheral Artery Disease: A Nationwide Study.

Background Guideline-based cardioprotective medical therapy is intended to reduce the burden of adverse cardiovascular and limb outcomes in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, contemporary data describing trends in use of medication remains limited. The present study, therefore, aims to investigate changes in use of cardioprotective medication in PAD. Methods and Results By using Danish national healthcare registries, we identified all patients with first-time diagnosis of PAD (1997-2016) and classified them into two groups: (1) PAD+ that includes all patients with PAD with a history of cardiovascular disease, ie, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and stroke (n=162 627); and (2) PAD (n=87 935) that comprise patients without a history of cardiovascular disease. We determined the use of medication in the first 12 months after the incident diagnosis of PAD and estimated age standardized 1-year mortality rates. Our results showed increase in use of cardioprotective medication throughout the study period in both groups. However, PAD+ had a higher use of medication (acetylsalicylic acid, 3.5%-48.4%; Clopidogrel, 0%-17.6%; vitamin K antagonists, 0.9%-7.8%; new oral anticoagulants, 0.0%-10.1%; Statins, 1.9%-58.1%; angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, 1.2%-20.6%), compared with PAD (acetylsalicylic acid, 2.9%-54.4%; Clopidogrel, 0%-11.9%; vitamin K antagonists, 0.9%-2.4%; new oral anticoagulants, 0.0%-3.4%; Statins, 1.5%-56.9%; angiotensin-converting enzyme, 0.9%-17.2%), respectively. Furthermore, 1-year mortality rates in PAD declined with increased use of medications during study. Conclusions In this nationwide study, use of cardioprotective medication increased considerably with time, but compared to patients with other atherosclerotic diseases, there remains an underuse of guideline-based medical therapy in patients with PAD.

Does Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Add Prognostic Information?: MORGAM Prospective Cohort Project.

The Reference Values for Arterial Stiffness Collaboration has derived an equation using age and mean blood pressure to estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), which predicted cardiovascular events independently of Systematic COoronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and Framingham Risk Score. The study aim was to investigate the independent association between ePWV and clinical outcomes in 107 599 apparently healthy subjects (53% men) aged 19 to 97 years from the MORGAM Project who were included between 1982 and 2002 in 38 cohorts from 11 countries. Using multiple Cox-regression analyses, the predictive value of ePWV was calculated adjusting for country of inclusion and either SCORE, Framingham Risk Score, or traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index [BMI], total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Cardiovascular mortality consisted of fatal stroke, fatal myocardial infarction, or coronary death, and the composite cardiovascular end point consisted of stroke, myocardial infarction, or coronary death. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Adjusting for country and logSCORE or Framingham Risk Score, ePWV was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI 1.20-1.25] per m/s or 1.32 [1.29-1.34]), cardiovascular mortality (1.26 [1.21-1.32] or 1.35 [1.31-1.40]), and composite cardiovascular end point (1.19 [1.16-1.22] or 1.23 [1.20-1.25]; all P<0.001). However, after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, ePWV was only associated with all-cause mortality (1.15 [1.08-1.22], P<0.001) and not with cardiovascular mortality (0.97 [0.91-1.03]) nor composite cardiovascular end point (1.10 [0.97-1.26]). The areas under the last 3 receiver operator characteristic curves remained unchanged when adding ePWV. Elevated ePWV was associated with subsequent mortality and cardiovascular morbidity independently of systematic coronary risk evaluation and Framingham Risk Score but not independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Utilization and Outcomes of Measuring Fractional Flow Reserve in Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: The use and clinical outcomes of fractional flow reserve (FFR) measurement in patients with stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD) are uncertain, as prior studies have been based on selected populations. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate contemporary, real-world patterns of FFR use and its effect on outcomes among unselected patients with SIHD and angiographically intermediate stenoses. METHODS: The authors used data from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking (CART) Program to analyze patients who underwent coronary angiography between January 1, 2009, and September 30, 2017, and had SIHD with angiographically intermediate disease (40% to 69% diameter stenosis on visual inspection). The authors documented trends in FFR utilization and evaluated predictors using generalized mixed models. They applied Cox proportional hazards models to determine the association between an FFR-guided revascularization strategy and all-cause mortality at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 17,989 patients at 66 sites were included. The rate of FFR use gradually increased from 14.8% to 18.5% among all patients with intermediate lesions, and from 44% to 75% among patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. One-year mortality was 2.8% in the FFR group and 5.9% in the angiography-only group (p < 0.0001). After adjustment for patient, site-level, and procedural factors, FFR-guided revascularization was associated with a 43% lower risk of mortality at 1 year compared with angiography-only revascularization (hazard ratio: 0.57; 95% confidence interval: 0.45 to 0.71; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with SIHD and angiographically intermediate stenoses, use of FFR has slowly risen, and was associated with significantly lower 1-year mortality.

Diabetes and risk of peripheral artery disease in patients undergoing first-time coronary angiography between 2000 and 2012 - a nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of peripheral artery disease (PAD) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary artery disease (CAD) is an important and inadequately addressed issue. Our aim is to examine the impact of DM on risk of PAD in patients with different degrees of CAD characterized by coronary angiography (CAG). METHODS: Using nationwide registers we identified all patients aged ≥18 years, undergoing first time CAG between 2000 and 2012. Patients were categorized into DM/Non-DM group, and further classified into categories according to the degree of CAD i.e., no-vessel disease, single-vessel disease, double-vessel disease, triple-vessel disease, and diffuse disease. Risk of PAD was estimated by 5-year cumulative-incidence and adjusted multivariable Cox-regression models. RESULTS: We identified 116,491 patients undergoing first-time CAG. Among these, a total of 23.969 (20.58%) had DM. Cumulative-incidence of PAD among DM patients vs. non-DM were 8.8% vs. 4.9% for no-vessel disease, 8.2% vs. 4.8% for single-vessel disease, 10.2% vs. 6.0% for double-vessel disease, 13.0% vs. 8.4% for triple-vessel disease, and 6.8% vs. 6.1% for diffuse disease, respectively. For all patients with DM, the cox-regression analysis yielded significantly higher hazards of PAD compared with non-DM patients with HR 1.70 (no-vessel disease), 1.96 (single-vessel disease), 2.35 (double-vessel disease), 2.87 (triple-vessel disease), and 1.46 (diffuse disease), respectively (interaction-p 0.042). CONCLUSION: DM appears to be associated with increased risk of PAD in patients with and without established CAD, with increasing risk in more extensive CAD. This observation indicates awareness on PAD risk in patients with DM, especially among patients with advanced CAD.

Reduced risk of gastrointestinal bleeding associated with proton pump inhibitor therapy in patients treated with dual antiplatelet therapy after myocardial infarction.

AIMS: Guidelines differ in their recommendations on therapy to prevent gastrointestinal bleeding for patients treated with dual antiplatelet treatment (DAPT). We sought to investigate the effectiveness of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) to prevent upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding in patients using DAPT following myocardial infarction (MI) in relation to current European Society of Cardiology guidelines recommendations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked Danish nationwide registries to identify patients taking DAPT 7 days following hospital discharge for an acute MI, and excluded individuals on anticoagulation therapy. We used multiple Cox regression modelling, to compute average risk of UGI bleeding in relation to PPI use. The associated treatment efficacy was compared based on guideline risk assessment. We studied 46 301 patients on DAPT after MI. Only 35% of patients at higher risk of UGI bleeding received recommended treatment with a PPI based on the guideline criteria. The 1--year risk of UGI bleeding was 1.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-1.1%] and 1.7% (CI 1.5-2.0%) for high-risk patients. Overall PPI compared with no therapy, was associated with a risk ratio for UGI bleeding of 0.62 (CI 0.48-0.77) corresponding to an absolute risk difference of 0.44% (CI 0.39-0.48%). Proton pump inhibitor therapy was associated with a similar absolute risk difference [0.47% (CI 0.43-0.51%)] for high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: Proton pump inhibitor therapy is used less than suggested by guidelines in patients treated with DAPT following MI and was generally associated with reduced risk of UGI bleeding. Considering the overall low risk of bleeding, more focus should be on identifying patients benefiting the most from PPI therapy.

Cost-effectiveness of Canakinumab for Prevention of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events.

Importance: In the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial, the anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody canakinumab significantly reduced the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels of 2 mg/L or greater. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding canakinumab to standard of care for the secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events over a range of potential prices. Design, Setting, and Participants: A state-transition Markov model was constructed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon by projecting rates of recurrent MI, coronary revascularization, infection, and lung cancer with and without canakinumab treatment. We used a US health care sector perspective, and the base case used the current US market price of canakinumab of $73 000 per year. A hypothetical cohort of patients after MI aged 61 years with an hs-CRP level of 2 mg/L or greater was constructed. Interventions: Canakinumab, 150 mg, administered every 3 months plus standard of care compared with standard of care alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually. Results: Adding canakinumab to standard of care increased life expectancy from 11.31 to 11.36 years, QALYs from 9.37 to 9.50, and costs from $242 000 to $1 074 000, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6.4 million per QALY gained. The price would have to be reduced by more than 98% (to $1150 per year or less) to meet the $100 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. These results were generally robust across alternative assumptions, eg, substantially lower health-related quality of life after recurrent cardiovascular events, lower infection rates while receiving canakinumab, and reduced all-cause mortality while receiving canakinumab. Including a potential beneficial effect of canakinumab on lung cancer incidence improved the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to $3.5 million per QALY gained. A strategy of continuing canakinumab selectively in patients with reduction in hs-CRP levels to less than 2 mg/L would have a cost-effectiveness ratio of $819 000 per QALY gained. Conclusions and Relevance: Canakinumab is not cost-effective at current US prices for prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with a prior MI. Substantial price reductions would be needed for canakinumab to be considered cost-effective.

Trends in warfarin use and its associations with thromboembolic and bleeding rates in a population with atrial fibrillation between 1996 and 2011.

AIM: Warfarin is a cornerstone for the prevention of thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation (AF), and several efforts have been taken to increase its usage and safety, including risk stratification schemes. Our aim was to investigate the temporal trends in initiation of warfarin and its effects on incidence of bleeding and thromboembolism in patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation 1996-2011. METHODS: All patients with a first-time diagnosis of non-valvular atrial fibrillation were identified from nationwide administrative registries. Trends were determined by linear regression. RESULTS: In total 153,682 patients were included. Initiation of warfarin increased from 14% to 41% (p<0.0001). Events of thromboembolism decreased from 3.9% to 2.6% annually (p<0.0001). The greatest decline in thromboembolic events was observed for patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score >1, where the annual decline was -0.12% (95%CI: -0.161; -0.084)) for those treated with warfarin and -0.073% (95%CI: -0.116;-0.030)) for those not treated with warfarin. Bleeding increased from 3.3% to 3.9% (p = 0.043). For those with a CHA2DS2VASc score >1 annual bleeding rates increased by 0.095% (95%CI: -0.025; -0.165) in warfarin treated and by 0.056% (95%CI: -0.013; -0.100) in patients not treated with warfarin. CONCLUSION: Warfarin use increased by nearly a 3-fold between 1996 and 2011. During the same period, thromboembolic events declined by a third and bleeding increased by a fifth, suggesting a beneficial effect associated with higher warfarin use. Notably, a small decline in thromboembolic events and increase in bleeding events was observed for the untreated population, suggesting a changing risk profile of AF patients.

Identifying Drug-Drug Interactions by Data Mining: A Pilot Study of Warfarin-Associated Drug Interactions.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about drug-drug interactions commonly arises from preclinical trials, from adverse drug reports, or based on knowledge of mechanisms of action. Our aim was to investigate whether drug-drug interactions were discoverable without prior hypotheses using data mining. We focused on warfarin-drug interactions as the prototype. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed altered prothrombin time (measured as international normalized ratio [INR]) after initiation of a novel prescription in previously INR-stable warfarin-treated patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Data sets were retrieved from clinical work. Random forest (a machine-learning method) was set up to predict altered INR levels after novel prescriptions. The most important drug groups from the analysis were further investigated using logistic regression in a new data set. Two hundred and twenty drug groups were analyzed in 61 190 novel prescriptions. We rediscovered 2 drug groups having known interactions (ß-lactamase-resistant penicillins [dicloxacillin] and carboxamide derivatives) and 3 antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents (platelet aggregation inhibitors excluding heparin, direct thrombin inhibitors [dabigatran etexilate], and heparins) causing decreasing INR. Six drug groups with known interactions were rediscovered causing increasing INR (antiarrhythmics class III [amiodarone], other opioids [tramadol], glucocorticoids, triazole derivatives, and combinations of penicillins, including ß-lactamase inhibitors) and two had a known interaction in a closely related drug group (oripavine derivatives [buprenorphine] and natural opium alkaloids). Antipropulsives had an unknown signal of increasing INR. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to identify known warfarin-drug interactions without a prior hypothesis using clinical registries. Additionally, we discovered a few potentially novel interactions. This opens up for the use of data mining to discover unknown drug-drug interactions in cardiovascular medicine.

Adipocytokines, C-reactive protein, and cardiovascular disease: a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Being overweight or obese is associated with a greater risk of coronary heart disease and stroke compared with normal weight. The role of the specific adipose tissue-derived substances, called adipocytokines, in overweight- and obesity-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) is still unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of three adipose tissue-derived substances: adiponectin, leptin, and interleukin-6 with incident CVD in a longitudinal population-based study, including extensive adjustments for traditional and metabolic risk factors closely associated with overweight and obesity. C-reactive protein (CRP) was used as a proxy for interleukin-6. METHODS: Prospective population-based study of 6.502 participants, 51.9% women, aged 30-60 years, free of CVD at baseline, with a mean follow-up time of 11.4 years, equivalent to 74,123 person-years of follow-up. As outcome, we defined a composite outcome comprising of the first event of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease and fatal and nonfatal stroke. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 453 composite CV outcomes occurred among participants with complete datasets. In models, including gender, age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, diabetes, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, estimated glomerular filtration rate, adiponectin, leptin, and CRP, neither adiponectin (hazard ratio [HR] with 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97 [0.87-1.08] per SD increase, P = 0.60) nor leptin (0.97 [0.85-1.12] per SD increase, P = 0.70) predicted the composite outcome, whereas CRP was significantly associated with the composite outcome (1.19 [1.07-1.35] per SD increase, P = 0.002). Furthermore, in mediation analysis, adjusted for age and sex, CRP decreased the BMI-associated CV risk by 43% (95%CI 29-72). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, neither adiponectin nor leptin were independently associated with CVD, raising questions over their role in CVD. The finding that CRP was significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD and decreased the BMI-associated CVD risk substantially, could imply that interleukin-6-related pathways may play a role in mediating overweight- and obesity-related CVD.

Measures of overweight and obesity and risk of cardiovascular disease: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Although overweight and obesity are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is unclear which clinical measure of overweight and obesity is the strongest predictor of CVD, and it is unclear whether the various measures of overweight and obesity are indeed independent predictors of CVD. METHODS: This study was a prospective population-based study of 2493 Danish men and women, age 41-72 years, without major CVD at baseline. At baseline, body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and traditional and new risk factors were recorded. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years, the incidence of a combined CV event (CV death, nonfatal ischemic heart disease, and nonfatal stroke) amounted to 328 cases. Of the various measures of overweight and obesity, in Cox-proportional hazard models, adjusted for age, only WHR was significantly associated with incident CVD with a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) in women of 2.22 (1.31-3.77; P=0.0032) in the highest compared with the lowest quartile, and a hazard ratio in men of 1.73 (1.12-2.66; P=0.014) in the highest compared with the lowest quartile. However, when adjustments were made for the presence of diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, hyperinsulinemia, and inflammation, WHR was no longer significantly (P>0.41) associated with incident CVD. CONCLUSION: In this study, of the various measures of overweight and obesity, WHR was the only significant predictor of incident CVD, and the relationship between WHR and risk of CVD was mediated by well-known risk factors of CVD.