RESUMEN
Background: Maternal and neonatal health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have improved over the last two decades. However, many pregnant women still deliver at home, which increases the health risks for both the mother and the child. Community health worker programs have been broadly employed in LMICs to connect women to antenatal care and delivery locations. More recently, employment of digital tools in maternal health programs have resulted in better care delivery and served as a routine mode of data collection. Despite the availability of rich, patient-level data within these digital tools, there has been limited utilization of this type of data to inform program delivery in LMICs. Methods: We use program data from 38,787 women enrolled in Safer Deliveries, a community health worker program in Zanzibar, to build a generalizable prediction model that accurately predicts whether a newly enrolled pregnant woman will deliver in a health facility. We use information collected during the enrollment visit, including demographic data, health characteristics and current pregnancy information. We apply four machine learning methods: logistic regression, LASSO regularized logistic regression, random forest and an artificial neural network; and three sampling techniques to address the imbalanced data: undersampling of facility deliveries, oversampling of home deliveries and addition of synthetic home deliveries using SMOTE. Results: Our models correctly predicted the delivery location for 68%-77% of the women in the test set, with slightly higher accuracy when predicting facility delivery versus home delivery. A random forest model with a balanced training set created using undersampling of existing facility deliveries accurately identified 74.4% of women delivering at home. Conclusions: This model can provide a "real-time" prediction of the delivery location for new maternal health program enrollees and may enable early provision of extra support for individuals at risk of not delivering in a health facility, which has potential to improve health outcomes for both mothers and their newborns. The framework presented here is applicable in other contexts and the selection of input features can easily be adapted to match data availability and other outcomes, both within and beyond maternal health.
RESUMEN
The utilization of community health worker (CHW) programmes to improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes has become widely applied in low- and middle-income countries. While current research has focused on discerning the effect of these interventions, documenting the process of implementing, scaling and sustaining these programmes has been largely ignored. Here, we focused on the implementation of the Safer Deliveries CHW programme in Zanzibar, a programme designed to address high rates of maternal and neonatal mortality by increasing rates of health facility delivery and postnatal care visits. The programme was implemented and brought to scale in 10 of 11 districts in Zanzibar over the course of 3 years by D-tree International and the Zanzibar Ministry of Health. As the programme utilized a mobile app to support CHWs during their visits, a rich data resource comprised of 133 481 pregnancy and postpartum home visits from 41 653 women and 436 CHWs was collected, enabling the evaluation of numerous measures related to intervention fidelity and health outcomes. Utilizing the framework of Steckler et al., we completed a formal process evaluation of the primary intervention, CHW home visits to women during their pregnancy and postpartum period. Our in-depth analysis and discussion will serve as a model for process evaluations of similar CHW programmes and will hopefully encourage future implementers to report analogous measures of programme performance.
