Complement factor I: Regulatory nexus, driver of immunopathology, and therapeutic.

Complement factor I (FI) is the nexus for classical, lectin and alternative pathway complement regulation. FI is an 88 kDa plasma protein that circulates in an inactive configuration until it forms a trimolecular complex with its cofactor and substrate whereupon a structural reorganization allows the catalytic triad to cleave its substrates, C3b and C4b. In keeping with its role as the master complement regulatory enzyme, deficiency has been linked to immunopathology. In the setting of complete FI deficiency, a consumptive C3 deficiency results in recurrent infections with encapsulated microorganisms. Aseptic cerebral inflammation and vasculitic presentations are also less commonly observed. Heterozygous mutations in the factor I gene (CFI) have been demonstrated to be enriched in atypical haemolytic uraemic syndrome, albeit with a very low penetrance. Haploinsufficiency of CFI has also been associated with decreased retinal thickness and is a strong risk factor for the development of age-related macular degeneration. Supplementation of FI using plasma purified or recombinant protein has long been postulated, however, technical difficulties prevented progression into clinical trials. It is only using gene therapy that CFI supplementation has reached the clinic with GT005 in phase I/II clinical trials for geographic atrophy.

Experiences that matter in bipolar disorder: a qualitative study using the capability, comfort and calm framework.

BACKGROUND: When assessing the value of an intervention in bipolar disorder, researchers and clinicians often focus on metrics that quantify improvements to core diagnostic symptoms (e.g., mania). Providers often overlook or misunderstand the impact of treatment on life quality and function. We wanted to better characterize the shared experiences and obstacles of bipolar disorder within the United States from the patient's perspective. METHODS: We recruited 24 individuals diagnosed with bipolar disorder and six caretakers supporting someone with the condition. Participants were involved in treatment or support services for bipolar disorder in central Texas. As part of this qualitative study, participants discussed their everyday successes and obstacles related to living with bipolar disorder during personalized, open-ended interviews. Audio files were transcribed, and Nvivo software processed an initial thematic analysis. We then categorized themes into bipolar disorder-related obstacles that limit the patient's capability (i.e., function), comfort (i.e., relief from suffering) and calm (i.e., life disruption) (Liu et al., FebClin Orthop 475:315-317, 2017; Teisberg et al., MayAcad Med 95:682-685, 2020). We then discuss themes and suggest practical strategies that might improve the value of care for patients and their families. RESULTS: Issues regarding capability included the struggle to maintain identity, disruptions to meaningful employment, relationship loss and the unpredictable nature of bipolar disorder. Comfort related themes included the personal perception of diagnosis, social stigma and medication issues. Calm themes included managing dismissive doctors, finding the right psychotherapist and navigating financial burdens. CONCLUSIONS: Qualitative data from patients with bipolar disorder helps identify gaps in care or practical limitations to treatment. When we listen to these individuals, it is clear that treatments must also address the unmet psychosocial impacts of the condition to improve patient care, capability and calm.

An investigation of factors affecting changes in health behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in a UK population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to changes in behaviours, which may have different health effects in population subgroups. We investigated whether within-individual changes in health behaviours from before to during the pandemic differ by socio-economic deprivation, age or sex. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the existing UK Fenland cohort study with measurements of health behaviours twice prepandemic (2005 to February 2020) and three times during the pandemic (July 2020 to April 2021). Health behaviours included daily servings of fruit and vegetables, units of alcohol consumed per week, smoking status, sleep duration and total and domain-specific physical activity energy expenditure. Sociodemographic information (English indices of multiple deprivation, education, occupation and ethnicity) and COVID-19 antibody status were also collected. Participants were grouped into three categories based on their English indices of multiple deprivation score: most, middle and least deprived. RESULTS: Participants were included if they had completed at least one measurement during the pandemic and one prepandemic (n = 3212). Fruit and vegetable consumption, total physical activity energy expenditure and smoking prevalence decreased during the pandemic compared with prepandemic, whereas average sleep duration increased and alcohol consumption did not change. Decreases in fruit and vegetable intake and physical activity energy expenditure were most pronounced in the most deprived group compared with the least deprived group and were greater in women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-economic inequalities in health behaviours have worsened during the pandemic. As the country emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, strategies to reduce health inequalities need to be put at the forefront of recovery plans.

Validity and severity thresholds for the depression subscale of the affective self rating scale: An equipercentile equating study using classical test theory.

BACKGROUND: The Affective Symptoms Scale (ASRS) is a unique instrument designed to separately measure depressive and manic symptoms in mood disorders. We validated the ASRS against the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (QIDS-16). METHODS: A retrospective study of 258 patients who completed the PHQ-9, QIDS-16 and ASRS as part of routine clinical care. To establish meaningful clinical thresholds for the depression subscale of the ASRS, it was equated with the QIDS and the PHQ-9. RESULTS: The depression subscale of the ASRS had significant positive correlations with the QIDS-16 and the PHQ-9 (respectively, r= 0.8, t[253] = 19.8, p < 0.001, and r= 0.8, t[245] = 28.2, p < 0.001). The equipercentile equating method with the PHQ-9 indicated that the thresholds corresponded to ASRS depression subscale scores of 5.4, 10.6, 16.1, and 23. Equating with the QIDS indicated that thresholds corresponded to ASRS depression subscale scores of 5.1, 11, 18.4, and 27.5. LIMITATIONS: Limitations include a small sample size that did not allow more detailed statistical analysis, such as Item Response Theory. The population is a heterogenous population at a university outpatient setting. CONCLUSIONS: The ASRS depression subscale significantly correlated with the PHQ-9 and QIDS-16. Our proposed threshold scores for the ASRS are 5, 11, 16 and 23 to indicated mild, moderate, severe and very severe depression respectively.

Correction: External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer (CRC) that include variables routinely available or easily obtainable via self-completed questionnaire. METHODS: External validation of fourteen risk models from a previous systematic review in 373 112 men and women within the UK Biobank cohort with 5-year follow-up, no prior history of CRC and data for incidence of CRC through linkage to national cancer registries. RESULTS: There were 1719 (0.46%) cases of incident CRC. The performance of the risk models varied substantially. In men, the QCancer10 model and models by Tao, Driver and Ma all had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.67 and 0.70. Discrimination was lower in women: the QCancer10, Wells, Tao, Guesmi and Ma models were the best performing with AUCs between 0.63 and 0.66. Assessment of calibration was possible for six models in men and women. All would require country-specific recalibration if estimates of absolute risks were to be given to individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk models based on easily obtainable data have relatively good discrimination in a UK population. Modelling studies are now required to estimate the potential health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing stratified risk-based CRC screening.

A two-step method for variable selection in the analysis of a case-cohort study.

Background: Accurate detection and estimation of true exposure-outcome associations is important in aetiological analysis; when there are multiple potential exposure variables of interest, methods for detecting the subset of variables most likely to have true associations with the outcome of interest are required. Case-cohort studies often collect data on a large number of variables which have not been measured in the entire cohort (e.g. panels of biomarkers). There is a lack of guidance on methods for variable selection in case-cohort studies. Methods: We describe and explore the application of three variable selection methods to data from a case-cohort study. These are: (i) selecting variables based on their level of significance in univariable (i.e. one-at-a-time) Prentice-weighted Cox regression models; (ii) stepwise selection applied to Prentice-weighted Cox regression; and (iii) a two-step method which applies a Bayesian variable selection algorithm to obtain posterior probabilities of selection for each variable using multivariable logistic regression followed by effect estimation using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Results: Across nine different simulation scenarios, the two-step method demonstrated higher sensitivity and lower false discovery rate than the one-at-a-time and stepwise methods. In an application of the methods to data from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study, the two-step method identified an additional two fatty acids as being associated with incident type 2 diabetes, compared with the one-at-a-time and stepwise methods. Conclusions: The two-step method enables more powerful and accurate detection of exposure-outcome associations in case-cohort studies. An R package is available to enable researchers to apply this method.

Adiposity and grip strength as long-term predictors of objectively measured physical activity in 93 015 adults: the UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Fatness and fitness are associated with physical activity (PA) but less is known about the prospective associations of adiposity and muscle strength with PA. This study aimed to determine longitudinal associations of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and grip strength (GS) with objectively measured PA. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data are from the UK Biobank study. At baseline (2006-2010), BMI, WC and GS were objectively measured. At follow-up (2013-2015), a sub-sample of 93 015 participants (52 161 women) wore a tri-axial accelerometer on the dominant wrist for 7 days. Linear regression was performed to investigate longitudinal associations of standardised BMI, WC and GS at baseline with moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and acceleration after a median 5.7-years follow-up (interquartile range: 4.9-6.5 years). RESULTS: Linear regression revealed strong inverse associations for BMI and WC, and positive associations for GS with follow-up PA; in women, MVPA ranges from lowest to highest quintiles of GS were 42-48 min day-1 in severely obese (BMI⩾35 kg m-2), 52-57 min day-1 in obese (30⩽BMI<35 kg m-2), 61-65 min day-1 in overweight (25⩽BMI<30 kg m-2) and 69-75 min day-1 in normal weight (18.5⩽BMI<25 kg m-2). Follow-up MVPA was also lower in the lowest GS quintile (42-69 min day-1) compared with the highest GS quintile (48-75 min day-1) across BMI categories in women. The pattern of these associations was generally consistent for men, and in analyses using WC and mean acceleration as exposure and outcome, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: More pronounced obesity and poor strength at baseline independently predict lower activity levels at follow-up. Interventions and policies should aim to improve body composition and muscle strength to promote active living.

Premenopausal abnormal uterine bleeding and risk of endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Endometrial biopsies are undertaken in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding but the risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic literature review to establish the risk of endometrial cancer and atypical hyperplasia in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding. SEARCH STRATEGY: Search of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from database inception to August 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies reporting rates of endometrial cancer and/or atypical hyperplasia in women with premenopausal abnormal uterine bleeding. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were independently extracted by two reviewers and cross-checked. For each outcome, the risk and a 95% CI were estimated using logistic regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering by study. MAIN RESULTS: Sixty-five articles contributed to the analysis. Risk of endometrial cancer was 0.33% (95% CI 0.23-0.48%, n = 29 059; 97 cases) and risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia was 1.31% (95% CI 0.96-1.80, n = 15 772; 207 cases). Risk of endometrial cancer was lower in women with heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) (0.11%, 95% CI 0.04-0.32%, n = 8352; 9 cases) compared with inter-menstrual bleeding (IMB) (0.52%, 95% CI 0.23-1.16%, n = 3109; 14 cases). Of five studies reporting the rate of atypical hyperplasia in women with HMB, none identified any cases. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding is low. Premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding should first undergo conventional medical management. Where this fails, the presence of IMB and older age may be indicators for further investigation. Further research into the risks associated with age and the cumulative risk of co-morbidities is needed. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Contrary to practice, premenopausal women with heavy periods or inter-menstrual bleeding rarely require biopsy.

Fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular risk factors in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The cardiovascular benefit of increasing fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake following diagnosis of diabetes remains unknown. We aimed to describe how quantity and variety of F&V intake, and plasma vitamin C, change after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and examine whether these changes are associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 401 individuals with screen-detected diabetes from the ADDITION-Cambridge study were followed up over 5 years. F&V intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and plasma vitamin C at baseline, at 1 year and at 5 years. Linear mixed models were used to estimate associations of changes in quantity and variety of F&V intake, and plasma vitamin C, with cardiovascular risk factors and a clustered cardiometabolic risk score (CCMR), where a higher score indicates higher risk. RESULTS: F&V intake increased in year 1 but decreased by year 5, whereas variety remained unchanged. Plasma vitamin C increased at 1 year and at 5 years. Each s.d. increase (250g between baseline and 1 year and 270g between 1 and 5 years) in F&V intake was associated with lower waist circumference (-0.92 (95% CI: -1.57, -0.27) cm), HbA1c (-0.11 (-0.20, -0.03) %) and CCMR (-0.04 (-0.08, -0.01)) at 1 year and higher high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (0.04 (0.01, 0.06) mmol/l) at 5 years. Increased plasma vitamin C (per s.d., 22.5 µmol/l) was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (0.04 (0.01, 0.06) mmol/l) and lower CCMR (-0.07 (-0.12, -0.03)) between 1 and 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in F&V quantity following diagnosis of diabetes are associated with lower cardiovascular risk factors. Health promotion interventions might highlight the importance of increasing, and maintaining increases in, F&V intake for improved cardiometabolic health in patients with diabetes.

Bidirectional association between physical activity and muscular strength in older adults: Results from the UK Biobank study.

Background: The relationship between physical activity and muscular strength has not been examined in detail among older adults. The objective of this study was to examine the associations between physical activity and hand grip strength among adults aged ≥ 60 years. Methods: Using data from the UK Biobank study, we included 66 582 men and women with complete baseline data and 6599 with 4.5 years of follow-up data. We used multiple linear regression models to examine the cross-sectional, longitudinal and bidirectional associations between moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and grip strength, adjusting for potential confounding by age, sex, height, weight, health status, education level, smoking status, Townsend deprivation index and retirement status. Results: In cross-sectional analyses, grip strength and MVPA were linearly and positively associated with each other. Longitudinally, baseline MVPA was not associated with grip strength at follow-up {difference between quintile [Q] 5 and Q1 = 0.40 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.14, 0.94]kg}, whereas baseline grip strength was associated with MVPA at follow-up [Q5 vs Q1 = 7.15 (1.18, 13.12) min/day]. People who maintained/increased time spent in MVPA did not experience any benefit in grip strength [0.08 (-0.20, 0.37) kg] whereas those who increased their grip strength spent 3.69 (0.20, 7.17) min/day extra in MVPA. Conclusion: Promotion of strength-training activities may enable and maintain participation in regular physical activity among older adults.

Glucocorticoid-induced hyperglycaemia in respiratory disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The relative risk of glucocorticoid-induced hyperglycaemia is poorly quantified. We undertook a meta-analysis to estimate the association between glucocorticoid treatment and hyperglycaemia, overall and separately in individuals with and without diabetes and underlying respiratory disease. We searched electronic databases for clinical trials of adults randomized to either glucocorticoid treatment or placebo. Eight articles comprising 2121 participants were identified. We performed a random effects meta-analysis to determine relative risks for the associations between glucocorticoid use and both hyperglycaemia and starting hypoglycaemic therapy. In all individuals, the relative risk of hyperglycaemia comparing glucocorticoid treatment with placebo was 1.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-2.04; p < .001]. The relative risks in individuals with and those without diabetes were 2.10 (95% CI 0.92-5.02; p = .079) and 1.50 (95% CI 0.79-2.86; p = .22), respectively. In all individuals, the relative risk of hyperglycaemia requiring initiation of hypoglycaemic therapy, comparing glucocorticoid treatment with placebo, was 1.73 (95% CI 1.40-2.14; p < .001). In conclusion, glucocorticoid therapy increases the risk of hyperglycaemia in all individuals with underlying respiratory disease but not when diabetic status is analysed separately.

Effects of vitamin D2 or D3 supplementation on glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk among people at risk of type 2 diabetes: results of a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

AIMS: To investigate the effect of short-term vitamin D supplementation on cardiometabolic outcomes among individuals with an elevated risk of diabetes. METHODS: In a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial, 340 adults who had an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or positive diabetes risk score) were randomized to either placebo, 100,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) or 100,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol), orally administered monthly for 4 months. The primary outcome was change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between baseline and 4 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included: blood pressure; lipid levels; apolipoprotein levels; C-reactive protein levels; pulse wave velocity (PWV); anthropometric measures; and safety of the supplementation. RESULTS: The mean [standard deviation (s.d.)] 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]2 concentration increased from 5.2 (4.1) to 53.9 (18.5) nmol/l in the D2 group, and the mean (s.d.) 25(OH)D3 concentration increased from 45.8 (22.6) to 83.8 (22.7) nmol/l in the D3 group. There was no effect of vitamin D supplementation on HbA1c: D2 versus placebo: -0.05% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.11, 0.02] or -0.51 mmol/mol (95% CI -1.16, 0.14; p = 0.13); D3 versus placebo: 0.02% (95% CI -0.04, 0.08) or 0.19 mmol/mol (95% CI -0.46, 0.83; p = 0.57). There were no clinically meaningful effects on secondary outcomes, except PWV [D2 versus placebo: -0.68 m/s (95% CI -1.31, -0.05); D3 versus placebo -0.73 m/s (95% CI -1.42, -0.03)]. No important safety issues were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term supplementation with vitamin D2 or D3 had no effect on HbA1c. The modest reduction in PWV with both D2 and D3 relative to placebo suggests that vitamin D supplementation has a beneficial effect on arterial stiffness.

Objectively measured physical activity and longitudinal changes in adolescent body fatness: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The data regarding prospective associations between physical activity (PA) and adiposity in youth are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate associations between baseline levels of objectively measured PA and changes in adiposity over 2.5 years from mid-to-late adolescence. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study in 728 school students (43% boys) from Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom. Fat mass index (FMI, kg m(-2) ) was estimated at baseline (mean ± standard deviation age: 15 ± 0.3 years) and follow-up (17.5 ± 0.3 years) by anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance. Habitual PA was assessed at baseline by ≥3 d combined heart rate and movement sensing. Average daily PA energy expenditure (PAEE) and the time (min d(-1) ) spent in light, moderate and vigorous intensity PA (LPA, MPA and VPA, respectively) was estimated. Multilevel models were used to investigate associations between baseline PA and change in FMI (ΔFMI). Adjustment for baseline age, sex, follow-up duration, area-level socioeconomic status, season of PA assessment, sedentary time, energy intake and sleep duration was made; baseline FMI was also added in a second model. RESULTS: FMI increased significantly over follow-up (0.6 ± 1.2 kg m(-2) , P < 0.001). Baseline PAEE and LPA positively predicted ΔFMI in overfat participants (P ≤ 0.030), as did VPA in initially normal fat participants (P ≤ 0.044). There were further positive associations between PAEE and ΔFMI in normal fat participants, and between MPA and ΔFMI in both fat groups, when adjusted for baseline FMI (P ≤ 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline PAEE and its subcomponents were positively associated with small and unlikely clinically relevant increases in ΔFMI. These counter-intuitive findings may be explained by behavioural changes during the course of study follow-up.

Change in cardio-protective medication and health-related quality of life after diagnosis of screen-detected diabetes: Results from the ADDITION-Cambridge cohort.

AIMS: Establishing a balance between the benefits and harms of treatment is important among individuals with screen-detected diabetes, for whom the burden of treatment might be higher than the burden of the disease. We described the association between cardio-protective medication and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among individuals with screen-detected diabetes. METHODS: 867 participants with screen-detected diabetes underwent clinical measurements at diagnosis, one and five years. General HRQoL (EQ5D) was measured at baseline, one- and five-years, and diabetes-specific HRQoL (ADDQoL-AWI) and health status (SF-36) at one and five years. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in HRQoL and change in cardio-protective medication. RESULTS: The median (IQR) number of prescribed cardio-protective agents was 2 (1 to 3) at diagnosis, 3 (2 to 4) at one year and 4 (3 to 5) at five years. Change in cardio-protective medication was not associated with change in HRQoL from diagnosis to one year. From one year to five years, change in cardio-protective agents was not associated with change in the SF-36 mental health score. One additional agent was associated with an increase in the SF-36 physical health score (2.1; 95%CI 0.4, 3.8) and an increase in the EQ-5D (0.05; 95%CI 0.02, 0.08). Conversely, one additional agent was associated with a decrease in the ADDQoL-AWI (-0.32; 95%CI -0.51, -0.13), compared to no change. CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence that increases in the number of cardio-protective medications impacted negatively on HRQoL among individuals with screen-detected diabetes over five years.

Consumption of fatty foods and incident type 2 diabetes in populations from eight European countries.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.

The association between a biomarker score for fruit and vegetable intake and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Norfolk study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Biomarkers for a mixed fruit and vegetable (FV) diet are needed to provide a better understanding of the association between FV intake and type 2 diabetes. We aimed to examine the prospective association between a composite score comprised of three biomarkers of FV intake in free-living populations and incident diabetes. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 318 incident diabetes cases and 926 controls from the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk study aged 40-79 years at baseline (1993-1997), completed 7-day prospective food diary and had plasma vitamin C and carotenoid measures. A composite biomarker score (CB-score) comprising the sum of plasma vitamin C, beta-carotene and lutein was derived. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A strong inverse association was found between the CB-score and incident diabetes. The ORs (95% CI) of diabetes comparing quartiles Q2, Q3 and Q4 of the CB-score with Q1 (reference category) were 0.70 (0.49, 1.00), 0.34 (0.23, 0.52) and 0.19 (0.12, 0.32), respectively, and 0.49 (0.40, 0.58) per s.d. change in CB-score in a model adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors. The association was marginally attenuated after additionally adjusting for body mass index and waist circumference (0.60 (0.49 and 0.74) per s.d. change in CB-score). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of biomarkers representing the intake of a mixed FV diet was strongly inversely associated with incident diabetes. These findings provide further support for measuring dietary biomarkers in studies of diet-disease associations and highlight the importance of consuming FV for the prevention of diabetes.

Physical activity, sedentary time and gain in overall and central body fat: 7-year follow-up of the ProActive trial cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine the independent associations of time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary (SED-time), with total and abdominal body fat (BF), and the bidirectionality of these associations in adults at high risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: We measured MVPA (min per day) and SED-time (h per day) by accelerometry, and indices of total (body weight, fat mass (FM), BF% and FM index) and abdominal BF (waist circumference (WC)) using standard procedures in 231 adults (41.3 ± 6.4 years) with parental history of type 2 diabetes (ProActive UK) at baseline, 1-year and 7-year follow-up. Mixed effects models were used to quantify the independent associations (expressed as standardised ß-coefficients (95% confidence interval (CI))) of MVPA and SED-time with fat indices, using data from all three time points. All models were adjusted for age, sex, intervention arm, monitor wear time, follow-up time, smoking status, socioeconomic status and MVPA/SED-time. RESULTS: MVPA was inversely and independently associated with all indices of total BF (for example, 1 s.d. higher MVPA was associated with a reduction in FM, ß = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.14, -0.04) s.d.) and abdominal BF (for example, WC: ß = -0.07 (-0.12, -0.02)). Similarly, higher fat indices were independently associated with a reduction in MVPA (for example, WC: ß = -0.25 (-0.36, -0.15); FM: ß = -0.27 (-0.36, -0.18)). SED-time was positively and independently associated with most fat indices (for example, WC: ß = 0.03 (-0.04, 0.09); FM: ß = 0.10 (0.03, 0.17)). Higher values of all fat indices independently predicted longer SED-time (for example, WC: ß = 0.10 (0.02, 0.18), FM: ß = 0.15 (0.07, 0.22)). CONCLUSIONS: The associations of MVPA and SED-time with total and abdominal BF are bidirectional and independent among individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes. The association between BF and MVPA is stronger than the reciprocal association, highlighting the importance of considering BF as a determinant of decreasing activity and a potential consequence. Promoting more MVPA and less SED-time may reduce total and abdominal BF.

Does early intensive multifactorial therapy reduce modelled cardiovascular risk in individuals with screen-detected diabetes? Results from the ADDITION-Europe cluster randomized trial.

AIMS: Little is known about the long-term effects of intensive multifactorial treatment early in the diabetes disease trajectory. In the absence of long-term data on hard outcomes, we described change in 10-year modelled cardiovascular risk in the 5 years following diagnosis, and quantified the impact of intensive treatment on 10-year modelled cardiovascular risk at 5 years. METHODS: In a pragmatic, cluster-randomized, parallel-group trial in Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK, 3057 people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes were randomized by general practice to receive (1) routine care of diabetes according to national guidelines (1379 patients) or (2) intensive multifactorial target-driven management (1678 patients). Ten-year modelled cardiovascular disease risk was calculated at baseline and 5 years using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine (version 3ß). RESULTS: Among 2101 individuals with complete data at follow up (73.4%), 10-year modelled cardiovascular disease risk was 27.3% (sd 13.9) at baseline and 21.3% (sd 13.8) at 5-year follow-up (intensive treatment group difference -6.9, sd 9.0; routine care group difference -5.0, sd 12.2). Modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was lower in the intensive treatment group compared with the routine care group at 5 years, after adjustment for baseline cardiovascular disease risk and clustering (-2.0; 95% CI -3.1 to -0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Despite increasing age and diabetes duration, there was a decline in modelled cardiovascular disease risk in the 5 years following diagnosis. Compared with routine care, 10-year modelled cardiovascular disease risk was lower in the intensive treatment group at 5 years. Our results suggest that patients benefit from intensive treatment early in the diabetes disease trajectory, where the rate of cardiovascular disease risk progression may be slowed.

Dietary vitamin D intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition: the EPIC-InterAct study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Prospective cohort studies have indicated that serum vitamin D levels are inversely related to risk of type 2 diabetes. However, such studies cannot determine the source of vitamin D. Therefore, we examined the association of dietary vitamin D intake with incident type 2 diabetes within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct study in a heterogeneous European population including eight countries with large geographical variation. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using a case-cohort design, 11,245 incident cases of type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort (N=15,798) were included in the analyses. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type 2 diabetes were calculated using a Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusted for potential confounders. Twenty-four-hour diet-recall data from a subsample (N=2347) were used to calibrate habitual intake data derived from dietary questionnaires. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 10.8 years. Dietary vitamin D intake was not significantly associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. HR and 95% CIs for the highest compared to the lowest quintile of uncalibrated vitamin D intake was 1.09 (0.97-1.22) (Ptrend=0.17). No associations were observed in a sex-specific analysis. The overall pooled effect (HR (95% CI)) using the continuous calibrated variable was 1.00 (0.97-1.03) per increase of 1 µg/day dietary vitamin D. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study does not support an association between higher dietary vitamin D intake and type 2 diabetes incidence. This result has to be interpreted in light of the limited contribution of dietary vitamin D on the overall vitamin D status of a person.