A novel climate and health decision support platform: Approach, outputs, and policy considerations.

BACKGROUND: The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasingly apparent and the need for adaptation activities is pressing. Risks, drivers, and decision contexts vary significantly by location, and high-resolution, place-based information is needed to support decision analysis and risk reduction efforts at scale. METHODS: Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework, we developed a causal pathway linking heat with a composite outcome of heat-related morbidity and mortality. We used an existing systematic literature review to identify variables for inclusion and the authors' expert judgment to determine variable combinations in a hierarchical model. We parameterized the model for Washington state using observational (1991-2020 and June 2021 extreme heat event) and scenario-driven temperature projections (2036-2065), compared outputs against relevant existing indices, and analyzed sensitivity to model structure and variable parameterization. We used descriptive statistics, maps, visualizations and correlation analyses to present results. RESULTS: The Climate and Health Risk Tool (CHaRT) heat risk model contains 25 primary hazard, exposure, and vulnerability variables and multiple levels of variable combinations. The model estimates population-weighted and unweighted heat health risk for selected periods and displays estimates on an online visualization platform. Population-weighted risk is historically moderate and primarily limited by hazard, increasing significantly during extreme heat events. Unweighted risk is helpful in identifying lower population areas that have high vulnerability and hazard. Model vulnerability correlate well with existing vulnerability and environmental justice indices. DISCUSSION: The tool provides location-specific insights into risk drivers and prioritization of risk reduction interventions including population-specific behavioral interventions and built environment modifications. Insights from causal pathways linking climate-sensitive hazards and adverse health impacts can be used to generate hazard-specific models to support adaptation planning.

Attractive serial dependence overcomes repulsive neuronal adaptation.

Sensory responses and behavior are strongly shaped by stimulus history. For example, perceptual reports are sometimes biased toward previously viewed stimuli (serial dependence). While behavioral studies have pointed to both perceptual and postperceptual origins of this phenomenon, neural data that could elucidate where these biases emerge is limited. We recorded functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) responses while human participants (male and female) performed a delayed orientation discrimination task. While behavioral reports were attracted to the previous stimulus, response patterns in visual cortex were repelled. We reconciled these opposing neural and behavioral biases using a model where both sensory encoding and readout are shaped by stimulus history. First, neural adaptation reduces redundancy at encoding and leads to the repulsive biases that we observed in visual cortex. Second, our modeling work suggest that serial dependence is induced by readout mechanisms that account for adaptation in visual cortex. According to this account, the visual system can simultaneously improve efficiency via adaptation while still optimizing behavior based on the temporal structure of natural stimuli.

Redefining the oceanic distribution of Atlantic salmon.

Determining the mechanisms driving range-wide reductions in Atlantic salmon marine survival is hindered by an insufficient understanding of their oceanic ecology and distribution. We attached 204 pop-up satellite archival tags to post-spawned salmon when they migrated to the ocean from seven European areas and maiden North American salmon captured at sea at West Greenland. Individuals migrated further north and east than previously reported and displayed increased diving activity near oceanographic fronts, emphasizing the importance of these regions as feeding areas. The oceanic distribution differed among individuals and populations, but overlapped more between geographically proximate than distant populations. Dissimilarities in distribution likely contribute to variation in growth and survival within and among populations due to spatio-temporal differences in environmental conditions. Climate-induced changes in oceanographic conditions will alter the location of frontal areas and may have stock-specific effects on Atlantic salmon population dynamics, likely having the largest impacts on southern populations.

Date of marine annulus formation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and implications for retrospective growth analyses using scales.

Fish scales have increasingly been used to quantify annual and seasonal growth trends and in efforts to relate growth to environmental conditions. Understanding the timing of formation of an annulus (a group of narrowly spaced circuli) is critical when assessing the influence of marine ecosystem conditions on seasonal growth patterns of Atlantic salmon, yet the literature does not provide consistent answers regarding the timing or drivers of marine annulus formation. This study demonstrates a novel method for estimating stock-specific annulus formation timing based on marked individuals with known emigration and return/recovery dates. An equation was applied to estimate the date of annulus completion for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using known dates, number of circuli after the most recent annulus and marine circulus deposition rate. Five marine circulus deposition rate scenarios were tested, some of which accounted for individual, seasonal and age-related variability and others which use previously published marine circulus deposition rates. Based on these results, an argument is presented to reconsider the practice of assigning annulus formation dates to winter solstice in favour of dates estimated by a scenario that accounts for individual, seasonal and age-related variation in circulus deposition. This scenario suggests that annulus formation occurs between mid-February and late March. In this case, the annulus would be formed during the coldest part of the year in the primary overwintering area for North American Atlantic salmon.

Characterizing and predicting cortical evoked responses to direct electrical stimulation of the human brain.

BACKGROUND: Direct electrical stimulation of the human brain has been used to successfully treat several neurological disorders, but the precise effects of stimulation on neural activity are poorly understood. Characterizing the neural response to stimulation, however, could allow clinicians and researchers to more accurately predict neural responses, which could in turn lead to more effective stimulation for treatment and to fundamental knowledge regarding neural function. OBJECTIVE: Here we use a linear systems approach in order to characterize the response to electrical stimulation across cortical locations and then to predict the responses to novel inputs. METHODS: We use intracranial electrodes to directly stimulate the human brain with single pulses of stimulation using amplitudes drawn from a random distribution. Based on the evoked responses, we generate a simple model capturing the characteristic response to stimulation at each cortical site. RESULTS: We find that the variable dynamics of the evoked response across cortical locations can be captured using the same simple architecture, a linear time-invariant system that operates separately on positive and negative input pulses of stimulation. We demonstrate that characterizing the response to stimulation using this simple and tractable model of evoked responses enables us to predict the responses to subsequent stimulation with single pulses with novel amplitudes, and the compound response to stimulation with multiple pulses. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that characterizing the response to stimulation in an approximately linear manner can provide a powerful and principled approach for predicting the response to direct electrical stimulation.

Attention and executive function are impaired during active standing in postural tachycardia syndrome.

Postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is a chronic form of orthostatic intolerance associated with cognitive dysfunction. We hypothesized executive function and attention is impaired in POTS during active standing. Eighty-seven POTS participants and 39 healthy controls of similar age, sex, and education level completed executive function (Stroop word-color) and attention (CogState Identification) tests in supine and standing postures in a cross-sectional study. POTS participants had lower executive function (t-score: 48 ± 11 vs. 55 ± 10 control; p = 0.009) and worse attention (reaction speed: 2.78 ± 0.11 vs. 2.69 ± 0.06 control; p < 0.001) during standing. These data provide new evidence that active standing impairs attention and executive functioning in POTS.

Arterial Elasticity in Ehlers-Danlos Syndromes.

Ehlers-Danlos Syndromes (EDS) are a group of heritable disorders of connective tissue (HDCT) characterized by joint hypermobility, skin hyperextensibility, and tissue fragility. Orthostatic intolerance (OI) is highly prevalent in EDS however mechanisms linking OI to EDS remain poorly understood. We hypothesize that impaired blood pressure (BP) and heart rate control is associated with lower arterial stiffness in people with EDS. Orthostatic vital signs and arterial stiffness were assessed in a cohort of 60 people with EDS (49 female, 36 ± 16 years). Arterial elasticity was assessed by central and peripheral pulse wave velocity (PWV). Central PWV was lower in people with EDS compared to reference values in healthy subjects. In participants with EDS, central PWV was correlated to supine systolic BP (r = 0.387, p = 0.002), supine diastolic BP (r = 0.400, p = 0.002), and seated systolic BP (r = 0.399, p = 0.002). There were no significant correlations between PWV and changes in BP or heart rate with standing (p > 0.05). Between EDS types, there were no differences in supine hemodynamics or PWV measures (p > 0.05). These data demonstrate that increased arterial elasticity is associated with lower BP in people with EDS which may contribute to orthostatic symptoms and potentially provides a quantitative clinical measure for future genotype-phenotype investigations.

Prevalence of hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome in postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome.

Despite well-established clinical associations between Hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (hEDS) and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), the precise prevalence is unknown. We therefore evaluated for hEDS in 91 POTS participants using the 2017 hEDS diagnostic checklist, which has three major criteria: 1) generalized joint hypermobility (Beighton score), 2) systemic features, family history, and 3) absence of exclusion criteria. Overall, 28 out of 91 POTS participants (31%) met clinical criteria for hEDS. An additional 24% of participants had generalized joint hypermobility without meeting hEDS criteria. Identifying the prevalence of hEDS in POTS is important for understanding possible mechanisms connecting these two syndromes.

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean.

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.

Presence and genetic variability of Piscine orthoreovirus genotype 1 (PRV-1) in wild salmonids in Northern Europe and North Atlantic Ocean.

Piscine orthoreovirus genotype 1 (PRV-1) is widespread in farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) populations in northern Europe, Canada and Chile. PRV-1 occurs in wild fish in Norway and Canada; however, little information of its geographical distribution in wild populations is currently available, and the effect of PRV-1 infection in wild populations is currently unknown. In this study, we present the findings of a survey conducted on 1,130 wild salmonids sampled in Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Faroe Islands, France, Belgium and Greenland between 2008 and 2017. PRV-1 is reported for the first time in wild salmonids in Denmark, Sweden, Faroe Island and Ireland. The annual PRV-1 prevalence ranged from 0% in France, Belgium and Greenland to 43% in Faroe Islands. In total, 66 samples tested positive for PRV-1, including Atlantic salmon broodfish returning to spawn and Atlantic salmon collected at the feeding ground north of Faroe Islands. The phylogenetic analysis of S1 sequences of the PRV-1 isolates obtained in this survey did not show systematic geographical distribution. This study sheds light on the spread and genetic diversity of the virus identified in populations of free-living fish and provides rationale for screening wild broodfish used in restocking programmes.

Changing temporal context in human temporal lobe promotes memory of distinct episodes.

Memories of experiences that occur around the same time are linked together by a shared temporal context, represented by shared patterns of neural activity. However, shared temporal context may be problematic for selective retrieval of specific memories. Here, we examine intracranial EEG (iEEG) in the human temporal lobe as participants perform a verbal paired associates memory task that requires the encoding of distinct word pairs in memory. We find that the rate of change in patterns of low frequency (3-12 Hz) power distributed across the temporal lobe is significantly related to memory performance. We also find that exogenous electrical stimulation affects how quickly these neural representations of temporal context change with time, which directly affects the ability to successfully form memories for distinct items. Our results indicate that the ability to retrieve distinct episodic memories is related to how quickly neural representations of temporal context change over time during encoding.

Demographic and genetic description of Greenland's only indigenous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population.

A survey of the Kapisillit River system was conducted in 2005 and 2012 to study the only indigenous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population in Greenland. Little is known about its characteristics or its relationship with other S. salar populations across the species range. Juvenile S. salar were captured in all stations surveyed within the lower river with the highest densities lower in the river and decreasing densities with increasing distance from the river mouth. Captured juveniles ranged from 0+ to 7+ years old and the predominant smolt age was between 4 and 6 years. Median length of 0+ and 1+ juveniles in August-September was 38.8 and 70.4 mm, respectively. The proportion of mature male parr increased from 4% for 1+ year old fish to 95% for fish greater than 2 years old. Genetic analysis using 96 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) revealed a high degree of genetic similarity between collections, extremely low genetic diversity and low estimates of effective population size (Ne = 28.7; 95% CI = 19.7-42.4). Genetic comparison to range-wide S. salar populations demonstrated that the Kapisillit River S. salar is an outgroup of the eastern Atlantic stock complex, which is consistent with the hypothesised colonisation from the east. River morphology and the absence of glacier runoff are hypothesised to be the main reasons for the relatively high river temperatures supporting this self-sustaining population of S. salar. Given its uniqueness and persistence, this population represents an important part of range-wide biodiversity of S. salar.

A neural data structure for novelty detection.

Novelty detection is a fundamental biological problem that organisms must solve to determine whether a given stimulus departs from those previously experienced. In computer science, this problem is solved efficiently using a data structure called a Bloom filter. We found that the fruit fly olfactory circuit evolved a variant of a Bloom filter to assess the novelty of odors. Compared with a traditional Bloom filter, the fly adjusts novelty responses based on two additional features: the similarity of an odor to previously experienced odors and the time elapsed since the odor was last experienced. We elaborate and validate a framework to predict novelty responses of fruit flies to given pairs of odors. We also translate insights from the fly circuit to develop a class of distance- and time-sensitive Bloom filters that outperform prior filters when evaluated on several biological and computational datasets. Overall, our work illuminates the algorithmic basis of an important neurobiological problem and offers strategies for novelty detection in computational systems.

Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?

Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as predictor variables. We therefore assessed the sensitivity of future fire projections to different combinations of vegetation maps used as explanatory variables in a statistically based fire modeling framework. We compared models without vegetation to models that incorporated static vegetation maps and that included output from a dynamic vegetation model that imposed three scenarios of fire and one scenario of land use change. We mapped projected future probability of all and large fires (> = 40 ha) under two climate scenarios in a heterogeneous study area spanning a large elevational gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Results showed high model sensitivity to the treatment of vegetation as a predictor variable, particularly for models of large fire probability and for models accounting for wildfire effects on vegetation, which lowered future fire probability. Some scenarios resulted in opposite directional trends in the extent and probability of future fire, which could have serious implications for policy and management resource allocation. Model sensitivity resulted from high relative importance of vegetation variables in the baseline models and from large predicted changes in vegetation, particularly when simulating wildfire. Although statistical fire models often omit vegetation due to uncertainty, model sensitivity demonstrated here suggests a need to account for that uncertainty. Coupling statistical and processed based models may be a promising approach to reflect a more plausible range of scenarios.

Signal Complexity of Human Intracranial EEG Tracks Successful Associative-Memory Formation across Individuals.

Memory performance is highly variable among individuals. Most studies examining human memory, however, have largely focused on the neural correlates of successful memory formation within individuals, rather than the differences among them. As such, what gives rise to this variability is poorly understood. Here, we examined intracranial EEG (iEEG) recordings captured from 43 participants (23 male) implanted with subdural electrodes for seizure monitoring as they performed a paired-associates verbal memory task. We identified three separate but related signatures of neural activity that tracked differences in successful memory formation across individuals. High-performing individuals consistently exhibited less broadband power, flatter power spectral density slopes, and greater complexity in their iEEG signals. Furthermore, within individuals across three separate time scales ranging from seconds to days, successful recall was positively associated with these same metrics. Our data therefore suggest that memory ability across individuals can be indexed by increased neural signal complexity.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT We show that participants whose intracranial EEG exhibits less low-frequency power, flatter power spectrums, and greater sample entropy overall are better able to memorize associations, and that the same metrics track fluctuations in memory performance across time within individuals. These metrics together signify greater neural signal complexity, which may index the brain's ability to flexibly engage with information and generate separable memory representations. Critically, the current set of results provides a unique window into the neural markers of individual differences in memory performance, which have hitherto been underexplored.

Principled Approaches to Direct Brain Stimulation for Cognitive Enhancement.

In this brief review, we identify key areas of research that inform a systematic and targeted approach for invasive brain stimulation with the goal of modulating higher cognitive functions such as memory. We outline several specific challenges that must be successfully navigated in order to achieve this goal. Specifically, using direct brain stimulation to support memory requires demonstrating that (1) there are reliable neural patterns corresponding to different events and memory states, (2) stimulation can be used to induce these target activity patterns, and (3) inducing such patterns modulates memory in the expected directions. Invasive stimulation studies typically have not taken into account intrinsic brain states and dynamics, nor have they a priori targeted specific neural patterns that have previously been identified as playing an important role in memory. Moreover, the effects of stimulation on neural activity are poorly understood and are sensitive to multiple factors including the specific stimulation parameters, the processing state of the brain at the time of stimulation, and neuroanatomy of the stimulated region. As a result, several studies have reported conflicting results regarding the use of direct stimulation for memory modulation. Here, we review the latest findings relevant to these issues and discuss how we can gain better control over the effects of direct brain stimulation for modulating human memory and cognition.

Near-infrared spectroscopic photoacoustic microscopy using a multi-color fiber laser source.

We demonstrate a simple multi-wavelength optical source suitable for spectroscopic optical resolution photoacoustic microscopy (OR-PAM) of lipid-rich tissue. 1064 nm laser pulses are converted to multiple wavelengths beyond 1300 nm via nonlinear optical propagation in a birefringent optical fiber. OR-PAM experiments with lipid phantoms clearly show the expected absorption peak near 1210 nm. We believe this simple multi-color technique is a promising cost-effective approach to spectroscopic OR-PAM of lipid-rich tissue.

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes.

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.

Microbial ecology of the hive and pollination landscape: bacterial associates from floral nectar, the alimentary tract and stored food of honey bees (Apis mellifera).

Nearly all eukaryotes are host to beneficial or benign bacteria in their gut lumen, either vertically inherited, or acquired from the environment. While bacteria core to the honey bee gut are becoming evident, the influence of the hive and pollination environment on honey bee microbial health is largely unexplored. Here we compare bacteria from floral nectar in the immediate pollination environment, different segments of the honey bee (Apis mellifera) alimentary tract, and food stored in the hive (honey and packed pollen or "beebread"). We used cultivation and sequencing to explore bacterial communities in all sample types, coupled with culture-independent analysis of beebread. We compare our results from the alimentary tract with both culture-dependent and culture-independent analyses from previous studies. Culturing the foregut (crop), midgut and hindgut with standard media produced many identical or highly similar 16S rDNA sequences found with 16S rDNA clone libraries and next generation sequencing of 16S rDNA amplicons. Despite extensive culturing with identical media, our results do not support the core crop bacterial community hypothesized by recent studies. We cultured a wide variety of bacterial strains from 6 of 7 phylogenetic groups considered core to the honey bee hindgut. Our results reveal that many bacteria prevalent in beebread and the crop are also found in floral nectar, suggesting frequent horizontal transmission. From beebread we uncovered a variety of bacterial phylotypes, including many possible pathogens and food spoilage organisms, and potentially beneficial bacteria including Lactobacillus kunkeei, Acetobacteraceae and many different groups of Actinobacteria. Contributions of these bacteria to colony health may include general hygiene, fungal and pathogen inhibition and beebread preservation. Our results are important for understanding the contribution to pollinator health of both environmentally vectored and core microbiota, and the identification of factors that may affect bacterial detection and transmission, colony food storage and disease susceptibility.

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.