Adjustment for unmeasured confounding through informative priors for the confounder-outcome relation.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies of medical interventions or risk factors are potentially biased by unmeasured confounding. In this paper we propose a Bayesian approach by defining an informative prior for the confounder-outcome relation, to reduce bias due to unmeasured confounding. This approach was motivated by the phenomenon that the presence of unmeasured confounding may be reflected in observed confounder-outcome relations being unexpected in terms of direction or magnitude. METHODS: The approach was tested using simulation studies and was illustrated in an empirical example of the relation between LDL cholesterol levels and systolic blood pressure. In simulated data, a comparison of the estimated exposure-outcome relation was made between two frequentist multivariable linear regression models and three Bayesian multivariable linear regression models, which varied in the precision of the prior distributions. Simulated data contained information on a continuous exposure, a continuous outcome, and two continuous confounders (one considered measured one unmeasured), under various scenarios. RESULTS: In various scenarios the proposed Bayesian analysis with an correctly specified informative prior for the confounder-outcome relation substantially reduced bias due to unmeasured confounding and was less biased than the frequentist model with covariate adjustment for one of the two confounding variables. Also, in general the MSE was smaller for the Bayesian model with informative prior, compared to the other models. CONCLUSIONS: As incorporating (informative) prior information for the confounder-outcome relation may reduce the bias due to unmeasured confounding, we consider this approach one of many possible sensitivity analyses of unmeasured confounding.

Endogenous temporal and spatial orienting: Evidence for two distinct attentional mechanisms.

The requirement to orient attention in space and time usually occurs simultaneously. Previous reports were indecisive regarding possible interactions between temporal and spatial orienting. The present study examined whether temporal and spatial orienting can operate simultaneously and independently in the framework of a detection task. Participants completed three consecutive target detection tasks: in the first two tasks a central cue provided predictive information regarding either the temporal delay of the target or its spatial location. In a third task the temporal and spatial cues from the first two tasks were combined into a single cue. Temporal and spatial information provided by the combined cue could be valid or invalid for each type of information separately. Results from the combined temporal-spatial task revealed that at a short cue-to-target interval temporal validity effects were significant at the attended and unattended spatial locations and were not modulated by spatial validity conditions. Spatial validity effects were also significant and comparable between the valid and invalid temporal conditions. Moreover, temporal and spatial validity effects in the combined task were equivalent to those attained in the separate tasks. At a long cue-to-target delay, spatial validity effects were significant and were not modulated by temporal validity but there were no temporal validity effects. Overall, the results suggest that participants were able to extract temporal and spatial information provided by a single cue simultaneously and independently. We conclude that temporal and spatial endogenous orienting function orthogonally in a task that does not require demanding perceptual discrimination.