Modelling supply chain sustainability challenges in the food processing sector amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted most businesses and their supply chains. Due to the negative impacts of COVID-19, businesses have been facing numerous challenges. Among them, sustainability challenges are critical for any supply chain. In the literature, several studies have discussed the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains; however, there is a significant research gap in analysing supply chain sustainability challenges amid the COVID-19 outbreak in a particular context. To fill this research gap, this study aims to develop a systematic approach to identifying and analysing COVID-19 outbreak-related supply chain sustainability challenges in the context of the Australian food processing sector. To achieve the aims, this paper develops a mixed-method approach consisting of both qualitative and quantitative techniques, namely online survey and the Best-Worst method. From the online survey among experts from the Australian food processing sector, 22 sustainability challenges were finalised and categorised into four categories, namely, economic, environmental, social and ethical, and operational challenges. The empirical findings from the exploratory investigation reveal that increased food processing cost, lack of transparency and traceability, increase in price of raw materials, lack of capital and physical resources, and spread of fake information are the top five sustainability challenges to the Australian food processing sector due to the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings of this study will help decision-makers, practitioners, and policymakers by developing the policies, guidelines, and strategies to overcome the most impactful sustainability challenges to ensure sustainable recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Unboxing Deep Learning Model of Food Delivery Service Reviews Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Technique.

The demand for food delivery services (FDSs) during the COVID-19 crisis has been fuelled by consumers who prefer to order meals online and have it delivered to their door than to wait at a restaurant. Since many restaurants moved online and joined FDSs such as Uber Eats, Menulog, and Deliveroo, customer reviews on internet platforms have become a valuable source of information about a company's performance. FDS organisations strive to collect customer complaints and effectively utilise the information to identify improvements needed to enhance customer satisfaction. However, only a few customer opinions are addressed because of the large amount of customer feedback data and lack of customer service consultants. Organisations can use artificial intelligence (AI) instead of relying on customer service experts and find solutions on their own to save money as opposed to reading each review. Based on the literature, deep learning (DL) methods have shown remarkable results in obtaining better accuracy when working with large datasets in other domains, but lack explainability in their model. Rapid research on explainable AI (XAI) to explain predictions made by opaque models looks promising but remains to be explored in the FDS domain. This study conducted a sentiment analysis by comparing simple and hybrid DL techniques (LSTM, Bi-LSTM, Bi-GRU-LSTM-CNN) in the FDS domain and explained the predictions using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME). The DL models were trained and tested on the customer review dataset extracted from the ProductReview website. Results showed that the LSTM, Bi-LSTM and Bi-GRU-LSTM-CNN models achieved an accuracy of 96.07%, 95.85% and 96.33%, respectively. The model should exhibit fewer false negatives because FDS organisations aim to identify and address each and every customer complaint. The LSTM model was chosen over the other two DL models, Bi-LSTM and Bi-GRU-LSTM-CNN, due to its lower rate of false negatives. XAI techniques, such as SHAP and LIME, revealed the feature contribution of the words used towards positive and negative sentiments, which were used to validate the model.

Sentiment Analysis of Customer Reviews of Food Delivery Services Using Deep Learning and Explainable Artificial Intelligence: Systematic Review.

During the COVID-19 crisis, customers' preference in having food delivered to their doorstep instead of waiting in a restaurant has propelled the growth of food delivery services (FDSs). With all restaurants going online and bringing FDSs onboard, such as UberEATS, Menulog or Deliveroo, customer reviews on online platforms have become an important source of information about the company's performance. FDS organisations aim to gather complaints from customer feedback and effectively use the data to determine the areas for improvement to enhance customer satisfaction. This work aimed to review machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods to predict customer sentiments in the FDS domain. A literature review revealed the wide usage of lexicon-based and ML techniques for predicting sentiments through customer reviews in FDS. However, limited studies applying DL techniques were found due to the lack of the model interpretability and explainability of the decisions made. The key findings of this systematic review are as follows: 77% of the models are non-interpretable in nature, and organisations can argue for the explainability and trust in the system. DL models in other domains perform well in terms of accuracy but lack explainability, which can be achieved with XAI implementation. Future research should focus on implementing DL models for sentiment analysis in the FDS domain and incorporating XAI techniques to bring out the explainability of the models.

Managing panic buying-related instabilities in supply chains: A COVID-19 pandemic perspective.

Global supply chains (SCs) have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic on several levels. For example, SCs suffered from panic buying-related instabilities and multiple disruptions of supply, demand, and capacity during the pandemic. This study developed an agent-based model (ABM) to predict the effects of panic buying-related instabilities in SCs and offered strategies to improve them. The ABM model includes a simulation and optimization model of a typical SC of an essential product manufacturer (i.e., toilet paper SC) for the analysis of scenarios and strategies to observe improvements in SCs. Among the four strategies identified, the findings suggest boosting production capacity to the maximum and ensuring optimal reorder points, order sizes, and trucks helped the essential product manufacturers reduce panic buying-related instabilities in their SCs.

Integrated modeling of extended agro-food supply chains: A systems approach.

The current intense food production-consumption is one of the main sources of environmental pollution and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Organic farming is a potential way to reduce environmental impacts by excluding synthetic pesticides and fertilizers from the process. Despite ecological benefits, it is unlikely that conversion to organic can be financially viable for farmers, without additional support and incentives from consumers. This study models the interplay between consumer preferences and socio-environmental issues related to agriculture and food production. We operationalize the novel concept of extended agro-food supply chain and simulate adaptive behavior of farmers, food processors, retailers, and customers. Not only the operational factors (e.g., price, quantity, and lead time), but also the behavioral factors (e.g., attitude, perceived control, social norms, habits, and personal goals) of the food suppliers and consumers are considered in order to foster organic farming. We propose an integrated approach combining agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamics modeling for a case of wine supply chain. Findings demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model over the traditional sustainable supply chain models in incorporating the feedback between consumers and producers and analyzing management scenarios that can urge farmers to expand organic agriculture. Results further indicate that demand-side participation in transition pathways towards sustainable agriculture can become a time-consuming effort if not accompanied by the middle actors between consumers and farmers. In practice, our proposed model may serve as a decision-support tool to guide evidence-based policymaking in the food and agriculture sector.

An agent-based model for supply chain recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has hugely disrupted supply chains (SCs) in different sectors globally. The global demand for many essential items (e.g., facemasks, food products) has been phenomenal, resulting in supply failure. SCs could not keep up with the shortage of raw materials, and manufacturing firms could not ramp up their production capacity to meet these unparalleled demand levels. This study aimed to examine a set of congruent strategies and recovery plans to minimize the cost and maximize the availability of essential items to respond to global SC disruptions. We used facemask SCs as an example and simulated the current state of its supply and demand using the agent-based modeling method. We proposed two main recovery strategies relevant to building emergency supply and extra manufacturing capacity to mitigate SC disruptions. Our findings revealed that minimizing the risk response time and maximizing the production capacity helped essential item manufacturers meet consumers' skyrocketing demands and timely supply to consumers, reducing financial shocks to firms. Our study suggested that delayed implementation of the proposed recovery strategies could lead to supply, demand, and financial shocks for essential item manufacturers. This study scrutinized strategies to mitigate the demand-supply crisis of essential items. It further proposed congruent strategies and recovery plans to alleviate the problem in the exceptional disruptive event caused by COVID-19.

A Review of Models Used for Investigating Barriers to Healthcare Access in Australia.

Understanding barriers to healthcare access is a multifaceted challenge, which is often highly diverse depending on location and the prevalent surroundings. The barriers can range from transport accessibility to socio-economic conditions, ethnicity and various patient characteristics. Australia has one of the best healthcare systems in the world; however, there are several concerns surrounding its accessibility, primarily due to the vast geographical area it encompasses. This review study is an attempt to understand the various modeling approaches used by researchers to analyze diverse barriers related to specific disease types and the various areal distributions in the country. In terms of barriers, the most affected people are those living in rural and remote parts, and the situation is even worse for indigenous people. These models have mostly focused on the use of statistical models and spatial modeling. The review reveals that most of the focus has been on cancer-related studies and understanding accessibility among the rural and urban population. Future work should focus on further categorizing the population based on indigeneity, migration status and the use of advanced computational models. This article should not be considered an exhaustive review of every aspect as each section deserves a separate review of its own. However, it highlights all the key points, covered under several facets which can be used by researchers and policymakers to understand the current limitations and the steps that need to be taken to improve health accessibility.

COVID-19 Detection Through Transfer Learning Using Multimodal Imaging Data.

Detecting COVID-19 early may help in devising an appropriate treatment plan and disease containment decisions. In this study, we demonstrate how transfer learning from deep learning models can be used to perform COVID-19 detection using images from three most commonly used medical imaging modes X-Ray, Ultrasound, and CT scan. The aim is to provide over-stressed medical professionals a second pair of eyes through intelligent deep learning image classification models. We identify a suitable Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model through initial comparative study of several popular CNN models. We then optimize the selected VGG19 model for the image modalities to show how the models can be used for the highly scarce and challenging COVID-19 datasets. We highlight the challenges (including dataset size and quality) in utilizing current publicly available COVID-19 datasets for developing useful deep learning models and how it adversely impacts the trainability of complex models. We also propose an image pre-processing stage to create a trustworthy image dataset for developing and testing the deep learning models. The new approach is aimed to reduce unwanted noise from the images so that deep learning models can focus on detecting diseases with specific features from them. Our results indicate that Ultrasound images provide superior detection accuracy compared to X-Ray and CT scans. The experimental results highlight that with limited data, most of the deeper networks struggle to train well and provides less consistency over the three imaging modes we are using. The selected VGG19 model, which is then extensively tuned with appropriate parameters, performs in considerable levels of COVID-19 detection against pneumonia or normal for all three lung image modes with the precision of up to 86% for X-Ray, 100% for Ultrasound and 84% for CT scans.

Half a century of computer methods and programs in biomedicine: A bibliometric analysis from 1970 to 2017.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine (CMPB) is a leading international journal that presents developments about computing methods and their application in biomedical research. The journal published its first issue in 1970. In 2020, the journal celebrates the 50th anniversary. Motivated by this event, this article presents a bibliometric analysis of the publications of the journal during this period (1970-2017). METHODS: The objective is to identify the leading trends occurring in the journal by analysing the most cited papers, keywords, authors, institutions and countries. For doing so, the study uses the Web of Science Core Collection database. Additionally, the work presents a graphical mapping of the bibliographic information by using the visualization of similarities (VOS) viewer software. This is done to analyze bibliographic coupling, co-citation and co-occurrence of keywords. RESULTS: CMPB is identified as a leading and core journal for biomedical researchers. The journal is strongly connected to IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering and IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging. Paper from Wang, Jacques, Zheng (published in 1995) is its most cited document. The top author in this journal is James Geoffrey Chase and the top contributing institution is Uppsala U (Sweden). Most of the papers in CMPB are from the USA followed by the UK and Italy. China and Taiwan are the only Asian countries to appear in the top 10 publishing in CMPB. A keyword co-occurrences analysis revealed strong co-occurrences for classification, picture archiving and communication system (PACS), heart rate variability, survival analysis and simulation. Keywords analysis for the last decade revealed that machine learning for a variety of healthcare problems (including image processing and analysis) dominated other research fields in CMPB. CONCLUSIONS: It can be concluded that CMPB is a world-renowned publication outlet for biomedical researchers which has been growing in a number of publications since 1970. The analysis also conclude that the journal is very international with publications from all over the world although today European countries are the most productive ones.

Breast cancer data analysis for survivability studies and prediction.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting females worldwide. Breast cancer survivability prediction is challenging and a complex research task. Existing approaches engage statistical methods or supervised machine learning to assess/predict the survival prospects of patients. OBJECTIVE: The main objectives of this paper is to develop a robust data analytical model which can assist in (i) a better understanding of breast cancer survivability in presence of missing data, (ii) providing better insights into factors associated with patient survivability, and (iii) establishing cohorts of patients that share similar properties. METHODS: Unsupervised data mining methods viz. the self-organising map (SOM) and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is used to create patient cohort clusters. These clusters, with associated patterns, were used to train multilayer perceptron (MLP) model for improved patient survivability analysis. A large dataset available from SEER program is used in this study to identify patterns associated with the survivability of breast cancer patients. Information gain was computed for the purpose of variable selection. All of these methods are data-driven and require little (if any) input from users or experts. RESULTS: SOM consolidated patients into cohorts of patients with similar properties. From this, DBSCAN identified and extracted nine cohorts (clusters). It is found that patients in each of the nine clusters have different survivability time. The separation of patients into clusters improved the overall survival prediction accuracy based on MLP and revealed intricate conditions that affect the accuracy of a prediction. CONCLUSIONS: A new, entirely data driven approach based on unsupervised learning methods improves understanding and helps identify patterns associated with the survivability of patient. The results of the analysis can be used to segment the historical patient data into clusters or subsets, which share common variable values and survivability. The survivability prediction accuracy of a MLP is improved by using identified patient cohorts as opposed to using raw historical data. Analysis of variable values in each cohort provide better insights into survivability of a particular subgroup of breast cancer patients.

A systematic review of modelling approaches in economic evaluations of health interventions for drug and alcohol problems.

BACKGROUND: The overarching goal of health policies is to maximize health and societal benefits. Economic evaluations can play a vital role in assessing whether or not such benefits occur. This paper reviews the application of modelling techniques in economic evaluations of drug and alcohol interventions with regard to (i) modelling paradigms themselves; (ii) perspectives of costs and benefits and (iii) time frame. METHODS: Papers that use modelling approaches for economic evaluations of drug and alcohol interventions were identified by carrying out searches of major databases. RESULTS: Thirty eight papers met the inclusion criteria. Overall, the cohort Markov models remain the most popular approach, followed by decision trees, Individual based model and System dynamics model (SD). Most of the papers adopted a long term time frame to reflect the long term costs and benefits of health interventions. However, it was fairly common among the reviewed papers to adopt a narrow perspective that only takes into account costs and benefits borne by the health care sector. CONCLUSIONS: This review paper informs policy makers about the availability of modelling techniques that can be used to enhance the quality of economic evaluations for drug and alcohol treatment interventions.

An approach to plan and evaluate the location of radiotherapy services and its application in the New South Wales, Australia.

This paper proposes an integrated modelling approach for location planning of radiotherapy treatment services based on cancer incidence and road network-based accessibility. Previous research efforts have established travel distance/time barriers as a key factor affecting access to cancer treatment services, as well as epidemiological studies have shown that cancer incidence rates vary with population demography. Our study is built on the evidence that the travel distances to treatment centres and demographic profiles of the accessible regions greatly influence the uptake of cancer radiotherapy (RT) services. An integrated service planning approach that combines spatially-explicit cancer incidence projections, and the placement of new RT services based on road network based accessibility measures have never been attempted. This research presents a novel approach for the location planning of RT services, and demonstrates its viability by modelling cancer incidence rates for different age-sex groups in New South Wales, Australia based on observed cancer incidence trends; and estimations of the road network-based access to current NSW treatment centres. Using three indices (General Efficiency, Service Availability and Equity), we show how the best location for a new RT centre may be chosen when there are multiple competing locations.

Applying a novel combination of techniques to develop a predictive model for diabetes complications.

Among the many related issues of diabetes management, its complications constitute the main part of the heavy burden of this disease. The aim of this paper is to develop a risk advisor model to predict the chances of diabetes complications according to the changes in risk factors. As the starting point, an inclusive list of (k) diabetes complications and (n) their correlated predisposing factors are derived from the existing endocrinology text books. A type of data meta-analysis has been done to extract and combine the numeric value of the relationships between these two. The whole n (risk factors) - k (complications) model was broken down into k different (n-1) relationships and these (n-1) dependencies were broken into n (1-1) models. Applying regression analysis (seven patterns) and artificial neural networks (ANN), we created models to show the (1-1) correspondence between factors and complications. Then all 1-1 models related to an individual complication were integrated using the naïve Bayes theorem. Finally, a Bayesian belief network was developed to show the influence of all risk factors and complications on each other. We assessed the predictive power of the 1-1 models by R2, F-ratio and adjusted R2 equations; sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were calculated to evaluate the final model using real patient data. The results suggest that the best fitted regression models outperform the predictive ability of an ANN model, as well as six other regression patterns for all 1-1 models.

Improved workflow modelling using role activity diagram-based modelling with application to a radiology service case study.

The modelling of complex workflows is an important problem-solving technique within healthcare settings. However, currently most of the workflow models use a simplified flow chart of patient flow obtained using on-site observations, group-based debates and brainstorming sessions, together with historic patient data. This paper presents a systematic and semi-automatic methodology for knowledge acquisition with detailed process representation using sequential interviews of people in the key roles involved in the service delivery process. The proposed methodology allows the modelling of roles, interactions, actions, and decisions involved in the service delivery process. This approach is based on protocol generation and analysis techniques such as: (i) initial protocol generation based on qualitative interviews of radiology staff, (ii) extraction of key features of the service delivery process, (iii) discovering the relationships among the key features extracted, and, (iv) a graphical representation of the final structured model of the service delivery process. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study of a magnetic resonance (MR) scanning service-delivery process in the radiology department of a large hospital. A set of guidelines is also presented in this paper to visually analyze the resulting process model for identifying process vulnerabilities. A comparative analysis of different workflow models is also conducted.