Diagnostic accuracy of carotid plaque instability by noninvasive imaging: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: There is increasing evidence that plaque instability in the extracranial carotid artery may lead to an increased stroke risk independently of the degree of stenosis. We aimed to determine diagnostic accuracy of vulnerable and stable plaque using noninvasive imaging modalities when compared to histology in patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Medline Ovid, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched for diagnostic accuracy of noninvasive imaging modalities (CT, MRI, US) in the detection of 1) vulnerable/stable plaque, and 2) vulnerable/stable plaque characteristics, compared to histology. The quality of included studies was assessed by QUADAS-2 and univariate and bivariate random-effect meta-analyses were performed. We included 36 vulnerable and 5 stable plaque studies in the meta-analysis, and out of 211 plaque characteristics from remaining studies, we classified 169 as vulnerable and 42 as stable characteristics (28 CT, 120 MRI, 104 US characteristics). We found that MRI had high accuracy [90% (95% CI: 82-95%)] in the detection of vulnerable plaque, similar to CT [86% (95% CI: 76-92%); P > 0.05], whereas US showed less accuracy [80% (95% CI: 75-84%); P = 0.013]. CT showed high diagnostic accuracy in visualizing characteristics of vulnerable or stable plaques (89% and 90%) similar to MRI (86% and 89%; P > 0.05); however, US had lower accuracy (77%, P < 0.001 and 82%, P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: CT and MRI have a similar, high performance in detecting vulnerable carotid plaques, whereas US showed significantly less diagnostic accuracy. Moreover, MRI visualized all vulnerable plaque characteristics allowing for a better stroke risk assessment. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID CRD42022329690.

Diagnostics Accuracy of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Detection of Atherosclerotic Plaque Characteristics in Carotid Arteries Compared to Histology: A Systematic Review.

Carotid plaque composition represents one of the main risk factors of future ischemic stroke. MRI provides excellent soft tissue contrast that can distinguish plaque characteristics. Our objective was to analyze the diagnostic accuracy of MRI imaging in the detection of carotid plaque characteristics compared to histology in patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis through a systematic review. After prospective registration in PROSPERO (ID CRD42022329690), Medline Ovid, Embase.com, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science Core were searched without any search limitation up to May 27, 2022 to identify eligible articles. Of the 8168 studies, 53 (37 × 1.5 T MRI, 17 × 3 T MRI) evaluated MRI accuracy in the detection of 13 specific carotid plaque characteristics in 169 comparisons. MRI demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy for detection of calcification (3 T MRI: mean sensitivity 92%/mean specificity 90%; 1.5 T MRI: mean sensitivity 81%/mean specificity 91%), fibrous cap (1.5 T: 89%/87%), unstable plaque (1.5 T: 89%/87%), intraplaque hemorrhage (1.5 T: 86%/88%), and lipid-rich necrotic core (1.5 T: 89%/79%). MRI also proved to have a high level of tissue discrimination for the carotid plaque characteristics investigated, allowing potentially for a better risk assessment and follow-up of patients who may benefit from more aggressive treatments. These results emphasize the role of MRI as the first-line imaging modality for comprehensive assessment of carotid plaque morphology, particularly for unstable plaque. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 2 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Predicting Penumbra Salvage and Infarct Growth in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Multifactor Survival Game.

BACKGROUND: Effective treatment of acute ischemic stroke requires reperfusion of salvageable tissue. We investigated the predictors of penumbra salvage (PS) and infarct growth (IG) in a large cohort of stroke patients. METHODS: In the ASTRAL registry from 2003 to 2016, we selected middle cerebral artery strokes <24 h with a high-quality CT angiography and CT perfusion. PS and IG were correlated in multivariate analyses with clinical, biochemical and radiological variables, and with clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Among 4090 patients, 551 were included in the study, 50.8% male, mean age (±SD) 66.3 ± 14.7 years, mean admission NIHSS (±SD 13.3 ± 7.1) and median onset-to-imaging-time (IQR) 170 (102 to 385) minutes. Increased PS was associated with the following: higher BMI and lower WBC; neglect; larger penumbra; absence of early ischemic changes, leukoaraiosis and other territory involvement; and higher clot burden score. Reduced IG was associated with the following: non-smokers; lower glycemia; larger infarct core; absence of early ischemic changes, chronic vascular brain lesions, other territory involvement, extracranial arterial pathology and hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign; and higher clot burden score. When adding subacute variables, recanalization was associated with increased PS and reduced IG, and the absence of haemorrhage with reduced IG. Collateral status was not significantly associated with IG nor with PS. Increased PS and reduced IG correlated with better 3- and 12-month outcomes. CONCLUSION: In our comprehensive analysis, multiple factors were found to be responsible for PS or IG, the strongest being radiological features. These findings may help to better select patients, particularly for more aggressive or late acute stroke treatment.

Rare stroke mechanisms in 4154 consecutive patients: causes, predictors, treatment, and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Rare mechanisms of stroke (RMS) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) have rarely been studied applying a systematic approach. Our aim was to define the frequency, etiologies, predictors, and outcomes of RMS in a consecutive series of AIS. METHODS: Data from consecutive patients from 2003 to 2016 were derived from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL). Frequency of subcategories of RMS was calculated. In a case-control design, RMS were compared to strokes of all other mechanisms. Outcome was assessed with 3-month Rankin-shift and 12-month mortality and recurrence rates. RESULTS: Out of 4154 AISs, 222 (5.3%) were found to have a RMS (42.0% female, median age 66 years). The most frequent RMS etiologies were medical interventions (25.6%), active oncological disease (22.5%), and vasculitis (11.7%). In multivariate analysis, RMS patients were younger, had more preceding and bilateral strokes, and a higher admission temperature. They were associated with less traditional risk factors and more systemic disease (such as AIDS, coagulopathy, and cancer). RMS also had more early ischemic changes on plain CT, less revascularization treatments, and more symptomatic hemorrhagic transformations. They presented significantly higher 3-month disability (Rankin-shift-ORadj 1.74), 12-month recurrence (ORadj 1.99), and mortality rates (ORadj 2.41). CONCLUSIONS: RMS occurred in 5.3% of a large population of consecutive AISs and are most frequently related to medical interventions, cancer, and vasculitis. RMS patients have less traditional risk factors but more systemic comorbidities, hemorrhagic transformations, recurrences, and a worse long-term outcome. Identification of RMS has direct implications for early treatment and long-term outcome.

Aspirin versus anticoagulation in cervical artery dissection (TREAT-CAD): an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Cervical artery dissection is a major cause of stroke in young people (aged <50 years). Historically, clinicians have preferred using oral anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists for patients with cervical artery dissection, although some current guidelines-based on available evidence from mostly observational studies-suggest using aspirin. If proven to be non-inferior to vitamin K antagonists, aspirin might be preferable, due to its ease of use and lower cost. We aimed to test the non-inferiority of aspirin to vitamin K antagonists in patients with cervical artery dissection. METHODS: We did a multicentre, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial in ten stroke centres across Switzerland, Germany, and Denmark. We randomly assigned (1:1) patients aged older than 18 years who had symptomatic, MRI-verified, cervical artery dissection within 2 weeks before enrolment, to receive either aspirin 300 mg once daily or a vitamin K antagonist (phenprocoumon, acenocoumarol, or warfarin; target international normalised ratio [INR] 2·0-3·0) for 90 days. Randomisation was computer-generated using an interactive web response system, with stratification according to participating site. Independent imaging core laboratory adjudicators were masked to treatment allocation, but investigators, patients, and clinical event adjudicators were aware of treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was a composite of clinical outcomes (stroke, major haemorrhage, or death) and MRI outcomes (new ischaemic or haemorrhagic brain lesions) in the per-protocol population, assessed at 14 days (clinical and MRI outcomes) and 90 days (clinical outcomes only) after commencing treatment. Non-inferiority of aspirin would be shown if the upper limit of the two-sided 95% CI of the absolute risk difference between groups was less than 12% (non-inferiority margin). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02046460. FINDINGS: Between Sept 11, 2013, and Dec 21, 2018, we enrolled 194 patients; 100 (52%) were assigned to the aspirin group and 94 (48%) were assigned to the vitamin K antagonist group. The per-protocol population included 173 patients; 91 (53%) in the aspirin group and 82 (47%) in the vitamin K antagonist group. The primary endpoint occurred in 21 (23%) of 91 patients in the aspirin group and in 12 (15%) of 82 patients in the vitamin K antagonist group (absolute difference 8% [95% CI -4 to 21], non-inferiority p=0·55). Thus, non-inferiority of aspirin was not shown. Seven patients (8%) in the aspirin group and none in the vitamin K antagonist group had ischaemic strokes. One patient (1%) in the vitamin K antagonist group and none in the aspirin group had major extracranial haemorrhage. There were no deaths. Subclinical MRI outcomes were recorded in 14 patients (15%) in the aspirin group and in 11 patients (13%) in the vitamin K antagonist group. There were 19 adverse events in the aspirin group, and 26 in the vitamin K antagonist group. INTERPRETATION: Our findings did not show that aspirin was non-inferior to vitamin K antagonists in the treatment of cervical artery dissection. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, Stroke Funds Basel, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Academic Society Basel.

Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source and Patent Foramen Ovale: Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Score Validation and Atrial Fibrillation Prediction.

Background and Purpose: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score stratifies patients with stroke according to the probability of having a patent foramen ovale (PFO), which (through Bayes theorem and simple assumptions) can be used to estimate the probability that a PFO is pathogenic in a given subgroup of patients with specific features (ie, a given RoPE score value): a higher PFO prevalence corresponds to a higher probability that a PFO is pathogenic. Among alternative mechanisms in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS), the actual stroke cause may be covert atrial fibrillation. We aimed to validate the RoPE score in a large ESUS population and investigate the rate of stroke recurrence and new incident atrial fibrillation during follow-up according to PFO status and RoPE score. Methods: We pooled data of consecutive patients with ESUS from 3 prospective stroke registries. We assessed RoPE score's calibration and discrimination for the presence of PFO (and consequently for the probability that it is pathogenic). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with PFO. Results: Among 455 patients with ESUS (median age 59 years), 184 (40%) had PFO. The RoPE score's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75. In addition to RoPE score variables, absence of left ventricular hypertrophy, absence of atherosclerosis, and infratentorial lesions were independently associated with PFO. In patients with PFO and RoPE 7 to 10, PFO and RoPE 0 to 6, and without PFO, new incident atrial fibrillation rate was 3.1%, 20.5%, and 31.8%, respectively (log-rank test=6.28, P=0.04). Stroke recurrences in patients with likely pathogenic PFO were not statistically different from other patients. Conclusions: This multicenter study validates the RoPE score to predict the presence/absence of PFO in patients with ESUS, which strongly suggests that RoPE score is helpful in identifying patients with ESUS with pathogenic versus incidental PFOs. Left ventricular hypertrophy, atherosclerosis, and infratentorial stroke may further improve the score. Low RoPE scores were associated with more incidental atrial fibrillation during 10-year follow-up.

Association of Time of Day When Endovascular Therapy for Stroke Starts and Functional Outcome.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between EVT start time in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and mid-term functional outcome. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all AIS cases treated with EVT from two stroke center registries from January 2012 to December 2018. The primary outcome was the score on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and the utility-weighted mRS (uw-mRS) at 90 days. A proportional odds model was used to calculate the common odds ratio as a measure of the likelihood that the intervention at a given EVT start time would lead to lower scores on the mRS (shift analysis). RESULTS: One thousand five hundred fifty-eight cases were equally allotted into twelve EVT-start-time periods. The primary outcome favored EVT start times in the morning at 08:00-10:20 and 10:20-11:34 (common odds ratio (OR), 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.38 to 0.75; P<0.001; OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.87; P=0.006, respectively), while it disfavored EVT start times at the end of the working day at 15:55-17:15 and 18:55-20:55 (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.09; P=0.034; OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.15; P=0.033). Symptom onset-to-EVT start time was significantly higher and use of IV t-PA significantly lower between 10:20-11:34 (P<0.004 and P=0.012, respectively). CONSLUSION: EVT for AIS in the morning leads to better mid-term functional outcome, while EVT at the end of the work day leads to poorer mid-term functional outcome. Neither difference in baseline factors, standard workflow and technical efficacy metrics could be identified as potential mediators of this effect.

Identification of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and low risk of new incident atrial fibrillation: The AF-ESUS score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. METHODS: We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system. RESULTS: Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; -1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; -3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; -2 points for subcortical infarct; -3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

Atrial Cardiopathy and Likely Pathogenic Patent Foramen Ovale in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

BACKGROUND: Atrial cardiopathy and likely pathogenic patent foramen ovale (PFO) are two potential embolic sources in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between these two mechanisms among ESUS patients remains unclear. METHODS: Atrial cardiopathy was defined as increased left atrial diameter index (> 23 mm/m2) or left atrial volume index (> 34 mL/m2), or PR prolongation (≥ 200 ms), or presence of supraventricular extrasystoles in the electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the index stoke. The presence of PFO was assessed by transthoracic echocardiography with microbubble test or by transesophageal echocardiography. The presence of PFO was considered as likely pathogenic if the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score was 7 to 10. RESULTS: Among 367 ESUS patients with available information about the presence of PFO and the presence of atrial cardiopathy (median age: 61 years, 40.6% women), likely pathogenic PFO was diagnosed in 62 (16.9%) and atrial cardiopathy in 122 (33.2%). Only 4 patients (1.1%) had both likely pathogenic PFO and atrial cardiopathy. The prevalence of atrial cardiopathy was lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO (6.5%) compared with patients with likely incidental PFO (31.2%) or without PFO (40.6%) (Pearson's chi-square test: 26.08, p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.09-0.86). The prevalence of likely pathogenic PFO was lower in patients with atrial cardiopathy compared with patients without atrial cardiopathy (3.3% vs. 23.7%, respectively [Pearson's chi-square test: 24.13, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.02-0.6]). CONCLUSION: The presence of atrial cardiopathy is inversely related to the presence of likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS.

A score to predict one-year risk of recurrence after acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: An acute ischemic stroke carries a substantial risk of further recurrences. We aimed at developing and validating a prognostic tool to predict one-year stroke recurrence after acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: An integer score was derived by Cox regression analysis on a hospital-referred cohort of 3246 acute ischemic stroke patients from Switzerland, and tested for external validity in three similar independent cohorts from Athens (n = 2495), Milan (n = 1279), and Helsinki (n = 714) by means of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the recurrence rate was 7% (n = 228/3246). We developed a nine-point score comprising: previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (1-point), stroke mechanism (small vessel disease and unknown mechanism: 0-points; rare stroke mechanism: 3-points; other mechanisms: 1-point), pre-stroke antiplatelets (1-point), active malignancy (2-points), chronic cerebrovascular lesions on imaging (1-point) and absence of early ischemic changes on first imaging (1-point). In the derivation cohort, the one-year risk of re-stroke was 3.0% (95%CI 1.9-4.1) in 932 (29%) patients with a score 0-1, 7.2% (6.1-8.3) in 2038 (63%) with a score 2-4, and 19.2% (14.6-23.9) in 276 (8%) with a score ≥ 5. The score calibrated well in the Athens (recurrences = 208/2495), but not in the Helsinki (recurrences = 15/714) or Milan (recurrences = 65/1279) cohorts. The AUC was 0.67 in the derivation cohort, and 0.56, 0.70, and 0.63 in the Athens, Helsinki, and Milan cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed a score to predict one-year stroke recurrence risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Since the score was not completely validated when applied to external datasets where it displayed poor to fair calibration and discrimination, additional efforts are required to ameliorate our accuracy for predicting stroke recurrence, by better refining this prognostic tool or developing new ones. Clinical and radiological markers of established cerebrovascular disease and stroke etiology were better predictors than the usual demographic vascular risk factors.

Carotid Atherosclerosis and Patent Foramen Ovale in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

BACKGROUND: Carotid atherosclerosis and likely pathogenic patent foramen ovale (PFO) are two potential embolic sources in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The relationship between these two mechanisms among ESUS patients remains unclear. AIM: To investigate the relation between carotid atherosclerosis and likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS. We hypothesized that ipsilateral carotid atherosclerotic plaques are less prevalent in ESUS with likely pathogenic PFO compared to patients with likely incidental PFO or without PFO. METHODS: The presence of PFO was assessed with transthoracic echocardiography with microbubble test and, when deemed necessary, through trans-oesophageal echocardiography. The presence of PFO was considered as likely incidental if the RoPE (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism) score was 0-6 and likely pathogenic if 7-10. RESULTS: Among 374 ESUS patients (median age: 61years, 40.4% women), there were 63 (49.6%) with likely incidental PFO, 64 (50.4%) with likely pathogenic PFO and 165 (44.1%) with ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis. The prevalence of ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis was lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO (7.8%) compared to patients with likely incidental PFO (46.0%) or patients without PFO (53.0%) (p<0.001). After adjustment for multiple confounders, the prevalence of ipsilateral carotid atherosclerosis remained lower in patients with likely pathogenic PFO compared to patients with likely incidental PFO or without PFO (adjusted OR=0.32, 95%CI:0.104-0.994, p=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of carotid atherosclerosis is inversely related to the presence of likely pathogenic PFO in patients with ESUS.

Characteristics and outcomes of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source according to stroke severity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS) usually present with mild symptoms. We aimed to compare the baseline characteristics between mild and severe ESUS, identify predictors for severe ESUS, and assess outcomes of patients with severe ESUS. METHODS: In the AF-ESUS (AF-ESUS) dataset, we stratified ESUS severity using the median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score on admission as cut-off. We performed multivariable stepwise regression analyses to identify independent predictors of severe ESUS and to assess the association between ESUS severity and stroke recurrence, death, and new incident atrial fibrillation (AF) on follow-up. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of outcome incidence were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. RESULTS: In 772 patients (median NIHSS: 6 (interquartile range: 3-12)), 414 (53.6%) patients had severe ESUS (i.e. NIHSS ≥6). Female sex was the only independent predictor for severe ESUS (odds ratio: 1.72 (1.27-2.33)). The rates of recurrence (3.3%/year vs. 3.4%/year, adjusted-hazard ratio: 1.09 (0.73-1.62)) and new incident AF (13.5% vs. 17.0%, adjusted odds ratio: 0.67 (0.44-1.03)) were similar between severe and mild ESUS, but mortality was higher (5.4%/year vs. 3.7%/year, adjusted-hazard ratio: 1.51 (1.05-2.16)) in severe ESUS. The 10-year cumulative probability for stroke recurrence was similar between severe and mild ESUS (38.1% (29.2-48.6) vs. 36.6% (27.8-47.0), log-rank test: 0.01, p = 0.920). The 10-year cumulative probability of death was higher in patients with severe ESUS compared with mild ESUS (40.5% (32.5-50.0) vs. 34.0% (26.0-43.6) respectively; log-rank test: 4.54, p = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Women have more severe ESUS compared with men. Patients with severe ESUS have similar rates of stroke recurrence and new incident AF, but higher mortality compared with mild ESUS.

Left atrial diameter thresholds and new incident atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We analyzed consecutive patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) from three prospective stroke registries to compare the prognostic performance of different LAD thresholds for the prediction of new incident AF. METHODS: We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive prognostic value (PPV), negative prognostic value (NPV) and Youden's J-statistic of different LAD thresholds to predict new incident AF. We performed multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates to assess the association between the LAD threshold with the highest Youden's J-statistic and AF detection. RESULTS: Among 675 patients followed for 2437 patient-years, the mean LAD was 38.5 ± 6.8 mm. New incident AF was diagnosed in 115 (17.0%) patients. The LAD threshold of 40mm yielded the highest Youden's J-statistic of 0.35 with sensitivity 0.69, specificity 0.66, PPV 0.27 and NPV 0.92. The likelihood of new incident AF was nearly twice in patients with LAD > 40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (HR:1.92, 95%CI:1.24-2.97, p = 0.004). The 10-year cumulative probability of new incident AF was higher in patients with LAD>40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (53.5% and 22.4% respectively, log-rank-test: 28.2, p < 0.001). The annualized rate of stroke recurrence of 4.0% in the overall population did not differ significantly in patient above vs. below this LAD threshold (HR:0.96, 95%CI:0.62-1.48, p = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The LAD threshold of 40 mm has the best prognostic performance among other LAD values to predict new incident AF after ESUS. The diagnostic yield of prolonged cardiac rhythm monitoring in patients with LAD ≤ 40 mm seems low; therefore, such patients may have lower priority for prolonged cardiac monitoring.

Supraventricular Extrasystoles on Standard 12-lead Electrocardiogram Predict New Incident Atrial Fibrillation after Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: The AF-ESUS Study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of covert atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a major challenge to guide secondary prevention of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). AIMS: We analyzed consecutive ESUS patients from 3 prospective stroke registries to assess whether the presence of supraventricular extrasystoles (SVE) on standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is associated with the detection of AF (primary outcome), stroke recurrence and death (secondary outcomes) during follow-up. METHODS: We measured the number of SVEs in all available ECGs of patients hospitalized for ESUS. Multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates assessed the association between SVE (classified in 4 groups according to their number per 10 seconds of ECG: no SVE, >0-1SVEs, >1-2SVEs, and >2SVEs) and outcomes during follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method estimated the 10-year cumulative probabilities of outcomes in each SVE group. We calculated the negative prognostic value (NPV) of the presence of any SVE to predict new AF, defined as the probability that AF will not be detected during follow-up if there is no SVE. RESULTS: Among 853 ESUS patients followed for 2857 patient-years (median age: 67 years, 43.0% women), 226 (26.5%) patients had at least 1 SVE at the standard 12-lead ECGs performed during hospitalization. AF was detected in 125 (14.7%) of patients in the overall population during follow-up: 8.9%, 22.5%, 28.1%, and 48.3% in patients with no SVE, greater than 0-1SVE, greater than 1-2SVE and greater than 2SVE respectively. In multivariate regression analysis, compared to patients with no SVEs, the corresponding hazard-ratios were 1.80 [95% confidence intervals (95%CI):1.06-3.05], 2.26 (95%CI:1.28-4.01) and 3.19 (95%CI:1.93-5.27). The NPV of the presence of any SVE for the prediction of new AF was 91.4%. There was no statistically significant association of SVE with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence and death. CONCLUSIONS: In ESUS patients without SVEs during hospitalization, the probability that AF will not be detected during a follow-up of 3.4 years is more than 91%.

External Performance of the HAVOC Score for the Prediction of New Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

Background and Purpose- The HAVOC score (hypertension, age, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease) was proposed for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) after cryptogenic stroke. It showed good model discrimination (area under the curve, 0.77). Only 2.5% of patients with a low-risk HAVOC score (ie, 0-4) were diagnosed with new incident AF. We aimed to assess its performance in an external cohort of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Methods- In the AF-embolic stroke of undetermined source dataset, we assessed the discriminatory power, calibration, specificity, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the HAVOC score to predict new incident AF. Patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 were considered as low-risk, as proposed in its original publication. Results- In 658 embolic stroke of undetermined source patients (median age, 67 years; 44% women), the median HAVOC score was 2 (interquartile range, 3). There were 540 (82%) patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 and 118 (18%) with a score of ≥5. New incident AF was diagnosed in 95 (14.4%) patients (28.8% among patients with HAVOC score ≥5 and 11.3% among patients with HAVOC score 0-4 [age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio, 2.29 (95% CI, 1.37-3.82)]). The specificity of low-risk HAVOC score to identify patients without new incident AF was 88.7%. The negative predictive value of low-risk HAVOC score was 85.1%. The accuracy was 78.0%, and the area under the curve was 68.7% (95% CI, 62.1%-73.3%). Conclusions- The previously reported low rate of AF among embolic stroke of undetermined source patients with low-risk HAVOC score was not confirmed in our cohort. Further assessment of the HAVOC score is warranted before it is routinely implemented in clinical practice.

Eligibility for late endovascular treatment using DAWN, DEFUSE-3, and more liberal selection criteria in a stroke center.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The real-life application of DAWN and DEFUSE-3 trials has been poorly investigated. We aimed to identify the proportion of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) eligible for late endovascular treatment (EVT) in our stroke center based on trial and more liberal selection criteria. METHODS: All consecutive patients in our stroke registry (2003-2017) admitted within 5-23 hours of last proof of good health were selected if they had complete clinical and radiological datasets. We calculated the proportion of patients eligible for late EVT according to trial (DAWN and/or DEFUSE-3) and more liberal clinical/imaging mismatch criteria (including lower admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score for core estimation). RESULTS: Of 1705 patients with AIS admitted to our comprehensive stroke center in the late time window, we identified 925 patients with complete clinical and radiological data. Among them, the proportions of late EVT eligibility were 2.5% (n=23) with DAWN, 5.1% (n=47) with DEFUSE-3, and 11.1% (n=103) with more liberal criteria. Considering late-arriving patients with large vessel occlusion (n=221), the percentages of eligible patients were 10.4%, 21.3%, and 46.6%, respectively. A favorable outcome was observed at comparable rates in treated patients selected by trial or liberal criteria (67% vs 58%, p=0.49). CONCLUSIONS: In a long-term stroke registry, the proportion of late EVT eligibility varied greatly according to selection criteria and referral pattern. Among late-arriving patients referred to our comprehensive stroke center, we found 5.6% eligible according to trial (DAWN/DEFUSE-3) and 11.1% according to liberal criteria. These data indicate that late EVT could be offered to a larger population of patients if more liberal criteria are applied.

Thrombectomy and Thrombolysis of Isolated Posterior Cerebral Artery Occlusion: Cognitive, Visual, and Disability Outcomes.

Background and Purpose- We investigated efficacy and safety of acute revascularization with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and endovascular treatment (EVT) in ischemic stroke from isolated posterior cerebral artery occlusion, by assessing recanalization, disability, visual, cognitive outcomes, and hemorrhagic complications. Methods- For this retrospective single-center cohort study, we selected all consecutive patients with stroke with isolated posterior cerebral artery occlusion from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne registry between January 2003 and July 2018, and compared (1) IVT with conservative treatment (CTr) and (2) EVT to best medical therapy (BMT, ie, CTr or IVT) in terms of 3-month disability and visual field defect, and cognitive domains impaired after stroke. Unadjusted analysis, multivariable logistic regression, and propensity score matched analyses were performed. Results- Among 106 patients with isolated posterior cerebral artery occlusion, 21 received EVT (13 bridging), 34 IVT alone, and 51 CTr. Median age was 76 years, 47% were female and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 7. Complete 24-hour recanalization was more frequent with IVT than CTr (51% versus 9%; OR [95% CI]=10.62 [2.13-52.92]) and with EVT compared with BMT (68% versus 34%; OR [95% CI]=4.11 [1.35-12.53]). Higher proportions of good disability, visual and cognitive outcomes were observed in IVT versus CTr, adjORs (95% CI)=1.65 (0.60-4.52), 2.01 (0.58-7.01), 2.94 (0.35-24.4), respectively, and in EVT versus BMT, adjORs (95% CI)=1.44 (0.51-4.10), 4.28 (1.00-18.29), 4.37 (0.72-26.53), respectively. Hemorrhagic complications and mortality did not increase with IVT or EVT. Conclusion s-We show increased odds of recanalization following IVT and even higher after EVT. We observed a trend for a positive effect on disability, visual, and cognitive outcomes with IVT over CTr and with EVT over BMT.

A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk.

OBJECTIVE: A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence. METHODS: We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.06) in patients with a score of 0-4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77-5.04) in patients with a score of 5-6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99-11.3) in patients with a score of 7-12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1-2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83-7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ2: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.66), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

Twenty-Four-Hour Reocclusion After Successful Mechanical Thrombectomy: Associated Factors and Long-Term Prognosis.

Background and Purpose- Early arterial recanalization is a strong determinant of prognosis in acute ischemic stroke. Nevertheless, reocclusion can occur after initial recanalization. We assessed associated factors and long-term prognosis of reocclusion after successful mechanical thrombectomy (MT). Methods- From the prospectively constructed Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne cohort, we included consecutive patients with anterior and posterior circulation strokes treated by successful MT (modified treatment in cerebral infarction 2b-3) and with 24-hour vascular imaging available. Reocclusion at this time-point was defined as new intracranial occlusion within an arterial segment recanalized at the end of MT. Through multivariate logistic regression, we investigated associated factors and 3-months outcome. In a 4:1 matched-cohort, we also assessed the role of residual thrombus or stenosis on post-recanalization angiographic images as potential predictor of reocclusion. Results- Among 473 patients with successful recanalization, 423 (89%) were included. Of these, 28 (6.6%) had 24-hour reocclusion. Preadmission statin therapy (aOR [adjusted odds ratio], 0.27; 95% CI, 0.08-0.94), intracranial internal carotid artery occlusion (aOR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.50-8.32), number of passes (aOR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.06-1.62), transient reocclusion during MT (aOR, 8.55; 95% CI, 2.14-34.09), and atherosclerotic cause (aOR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.34-7.37) were independently associated with reocclusion. In the matched-cohort analysis, residual thrombus or stenosis was associated with reocclusion (aOR, 15.6; 95% CI, 4.6-52.8). Patients experiencing reocclusion had worse outcome (aOR, 5.0; 95% CI, 1.2-20.0). Conclusions- Reocclusion within 24-hours of successful MT was independently associated with statin pretreatment, occlusion site, more complex procedures, atherosclerotic cause, and residual thrombus or stenosis after recanalization. Reocclusion impact on long-term outcome highlights the need to monitor and prevent this early complication.

Prevalence and Overlap of Potential Embolic Sources in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

Background We aimed to assess the prevalence and degree of overlap of potential embolic sources (PES) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods and Results In a pooled data set derived from 3 prospective stroke registries, patients were categorized in ≥1 groups according to the PES that was/were identified. We categorized PES as follows: atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation diagnosed during follow-up, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvular disease, patent foramen ovale, and cancer. In 800 patients with ESUS (43.1% women; median age, 67.0 years), 3 most prevalent PES were left ventricular disease, arterial disease, and atrial cardiopathy, which were present in 54.4%, 48.5%, and 45.0% of patients, respectively. Most patients (65.5%) had >1 PES, whereas only 29.7% and 4.8% of patients had a single or no PES, respectively. In 31.1% of patients, there were ≥3 PES present. On average, each patient had 2 PES (median, 2). During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, stroke recurrence occurred in 101 (12.6%) of patients (23.3 recurrences per 100 patient-years). In multivariate analysis, the risk of stroke recurrence was higher in the atrial fibrillation group compared with other PES, but not statistically different between patients with 0 to 1, 2, or ≥3 PES. Conclusions There is major overlap of PES in patients with ESUS. This may possibly explain the negative results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of secondary prevention in patients with ESUS and offer a rationale for a randomized controlled trial of combination of anticoagulation and aspirin for the prevention of stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02766205.