Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the factors influencing the decline in the birth rates observed in higher-income countries in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic? SUMMARY ANSWER: Our results suggest that economic uncertainty, non-pharmaceutical policy interventions, and the first wave of the population-wide vaccination campaign were associated with the decline in birth rates during 2022. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: During the COVID-19 pandemic, birth rates in most higher-income countries first briefly declined and then shortly recovered, showing no common trends afterwards until early 2022, when they unexpectedly dropped. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: This study uses population-wide data on monthly total fertility rates (TFRs) adjusted for seasonality and calendar effects provided in the Human Fertility Database (HFD). Births taking place between November 2020 and October 2022 correspond to conceptions occurring between February 2020 and January 2022, i.e. after the onset of the pandemic but prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The data cover 26 countries, including 21 countries in Europe, the USA, Canada, Israel, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: First, we provided a descriptive analysis of the monthly changes in the TFR. Second, we employed linear fixed effects regression models to estimate the association of explanatory factors with the observed seasonally adjusted TFRs. Our analysis considered three broader sets of explanatory factors: economic uncertainty, policy interventions restricting mobility and social activities outside the home, and the progression of vaccination programmes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We found that birth trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with economic uncertainty, as measured by increased inflation (P < 0.001), whereas unemployment did not show any link to births during the pandemic (P = 0.677). The stringency of pandemic policy interventions was linked to a postponement of births, but only in countries with lower institutional trust and only in the early phase of the pandemic (P = 0.003). In countries with higher trust, stricter containment measures were positively associated with birth rates, both for conceptions in the first year of the pandemic (P = 0.019) and, albeit only weakly significant, for conceptions later in the pandemic (P = 0.057). Furthermore, we found a negative association between the share of the population having received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccination and TFRs (P < 0.001), whereas the share of the population having completed the primary vaccination course (usually consisting of two doses) was linked to a recovery of birth rates (P < 0.001). LARGE SCALE DATA: N/A. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our research is restricted to higher-income countries with relatively strong social support policies provided by the government as well as wide access to modern contraception. Our data did not allow analyses of birth trends by key characteristics, such as age, birth order, and social status. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This is the first multi-country study of the drivers of birth trends in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the past, periods following epidemics and health crises were typically associated with a recovery in births. In contrast, our results show that the gradual phasing out of pandemic containment measures, allowing increased mobility and a return to more normal work and social life, contributed to declining birth rates in some countries. In addition, our analysis indicates that some women avoided pregnancy until completion of the primary vaccination protocol. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study did not use any external funding. The authors acknowledge funding from their home institution, the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, and from the Open-Access Fund of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript versions arising from this submission. All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

A pronatalist turn in population policies in Iran and its likely adverse impacts on reproductive rights, health and inequality: a critical narrative review.

Iran has witnessed three major reversals of population policies since their inception in the 1960s. In response to a rapid decline in fertility to very low levels, the latest policy shift has led to the development of legislation that aims to encourage marriage and fertility, particularly the "Youthful Population and Protection of the Family" law approved in 2021. This study reviews the changes in population policy and their interrelations with fertility trends, focusing mainly on the shift towards pronatalist policies since 2005, and accompanying restriction of reproductive health and family planning services. Combining international and national sources, we position the new pronatalist drive in the country within the broader trend of government attempts to reverse fertility decline and promote conservative family values. Our study has three main aims. (1) We provide an overview of fertility trends, policy discourses and policy shifts in the context of the changes in the societal and political structures of Iran during the last half a century. (2) We highlight and discuss the most problematic features of the new Family Law, especially the legislation pertaining to maternal and reproductive health, access to abortion and contraception, and incentives supporting earlier marriage and higher fertility. (3) We discuss the likely consequences of the new legislation for maternal and child health and sexual and reproductive rights, for women in general, and the country's socio-economic disparities. As well as violating reproductive rights, the new policy is unlikely to achieve its aim of initiating a sustained rise in fertility in Iran.

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility.

Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasingly influencing the fertility trends of high-income countries characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing. However, research on the impact of ART on completed fertility is limited and the extent to which delayed births are realized later in life through ART is not well understood. This study uses data from Australian fertility clinics and national birth registries to project the contribution of ART for cohorts of women that have not yet completed their reproductive life and estimate the role played by ART in the fertility 'recuperation' process. Assuming that the increasing trends in ART success rates and treatment rates continue, the projection shows that the contribution of ART-conceived births to completed fertility will increase from 2.1% among women born in 1968 to 5.7% among women born in 1986. ART is projected to substantially affect the extent to which childbearing delay will be compensated at older ages, suggesting that its availability may become an important factor in helping women to achieve their reproductive plans later in life. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3.

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis.

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age? SUMMARY ANSWER: For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive intentions decreased steeply from age 35: the effect of age was weak and not significant for men. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Men and women are postponing childbearing until later ages. For women, this trend is associated with a higher risk that childbearing plans will not be realised due to increased levels of infertility and pregnancy complications. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study analyses two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The analytical sample interviewed in 2011 included 447 men aged 18-45 and 528 women aged 18-41. These respondents expressed a strong intention to have a child in the next 3 years. We followed them up in 2015 to track whether their reproductive intention was achieved or revised. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS: Multinomial logistic regression is used to account for the three possible outcomes: (i) having a child, (ii) not having a child but still intending to have one in the future and (iii) not having a child and no longer intending to have one. We analyse how age, parity, partnership status, education, perceived ability to conceive, self-rated health, BMI and smoking status are related to realising or changing reproductive intentions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Almost two-thirds of men and women realised their strong short-term fertility plans within 4 years. There was a steep age-related decline in realising reproductive intentions for women in their mid- and late-30s, whereas men maintained a relatively high probability of having the child they intended until age 45. Women aged 38-41 who planned to have a child were the most likely to change their plan within 4 years. The probability of realising reproductive intention was highest for married and highly educated men and women and for those with one child. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study cannot separate biological, social and cultural reasons for not realising reproductive intentions. Men and women adjust their intentions in response to their actual circumstances, but also in line with their perceived ability to have a child or under the influence of broader social norms on reproductive age. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results give a new perspective on the ability of men and women to realise their reproductive plans in the context of childbearing postponement. They confirm the inequality in the individual consequences of delayed reproduction between men and women. They inform medical practitioners and counsellors about the complex biological, social and normative barriers to reproduction among women at higher childbearing ages. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was partly supported by a Research School of Social Sciences Visiting Fellowship at the Australian National University and an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP150104248). Éva Beaujouan's work was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project 'Later Fertility in Europe' (Grant agreement no. P31171-G29). This paper uses unit record data from the HILDA Survey. The HILDA Project was initiated and is funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (Melbourne Institute). The findings and views reported in this paper, however, are those of the authors and should not be attributed to either DSS or the Melbourne Institute. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Seeding the gender revolution: Women's education and cohort fertility among the baby boom generations.

In Europe and the United States, women's educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We analyse trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women's education. Over the 1901-45 cohorts, the proportion of parents with exactly two children rose steadily and homogeneity in family sizes increased. Progression to a third child and beyond declined in all the countries, continuing the ongoing trends of the fertility transition. In countries with a baby boom, and especially among women with post-primary education, this was compensated for by decreasing childlessness and increasing progression to a second child. These changes, linked to earlier stages of the fertility transition, laid the foundations for later fertility patterns associated with the gender revolution.

POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS.

This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

Test data sets for calibration of stochastic and fractional stochastic volatility models.

Data for calibration and out-of-sample error testing of option pricing models are provided alongside data obtained from optimization procedures in "On calibration of stochastic and fractional stochastic volatility models" [1]. Firstly we describe testing data sets, further calibration data obtained from combined optimizers is visually depicted - interactive 3d bar plots are provided. The data is suitable for a further comparison of other optimization routines and also to benchmark different pricing models.

A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility.

Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent-wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjusted total fertility rate proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney also controls for the parity composition of the female population and provides more stable values than the indicators proposed in the past. Finally, we estimate levels and trends in tempo and parity distribution distortions in selected countries in Europe. Our analysis of period and cohort fertility indicators in the Czech Republic, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden shows that the new adjusted measure gives a remarkable fit with the completed fertility of women in prime childbearing years in a given period, which suggests that it provides an accurate adjustment for tempo and parity composition distortions. Using an expanded dataset for ten countries, we demonstrate that adjusted fertility as measured by TFRp* remained nearly stable since the late 1990s. This finding implies that the recent upturns in the period TFR in Europe are largely explained by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement. Other tempo-adjusted fertility indicators have not indicated such a large role for the diminishing tempo effect in these TFR upturns. As countries proceed through their postponement transitions, tempo effects will decline further and eventually disappear, thus putting continued upward pressure on period fertility. However, such an upward trend may be obscured for a few years by the effects of economic recession.

Trends in rates of natural conceptions among Danish women born during 1960-1984.

STUDY QUESTION: The aim of the study was to analyse trends in the rate of natural conceptions (RNC) among birth cohorts of women born during the period 1960-1984. SUMMARY ANSWER: In this nationwide study of Danish-born female cohorts born during the period 1960-1984, we found a gradual decline in the RNC with successive birth cohorts. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Our results confirm the findings from a previous study on trends in RNC among native Danish women. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is a register-based cohort study. Our data set included 803 435 native Danish women born in 1960-1984, of whom 68.2% had conceived at least one child as of 1 January 2008, by which time the follow-up was terminated. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Data from Danish national registers were linked at the individual level using unique personal numbers assigned at birth to each resident. We analysed the data for the cohorts of native Danish women born in 1960-1984 and resident in Denmark in 2008. For these cohorts, we estimated the RNC per woman, defined as the mean number of live births minus live births after assisted reproductive technology (ART) plus the mean number of induced abortions. Births, abortions and births after ART were partly projected for the younger cohorts who had not finished their reproductive years before 2008. In addition, we looked at trends in hormonal contraception use. MAIN RESULTS: In the main projection scenario, the RNC gradually declined with successive cohorts from 2.39 among women born in 1960 to 2.15 among women born in 1984, with stable values of 2.15-2.16 projected in the youngest cohorts analysed, 1979-1984. The projected decline was a consequence of a decrease in induced abortion rates and an increase in the use of ART among the younger cohorts. Furthermore, we projected a cohort increase in the share of women without natural conceptions. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: A considerable portion of the results was based on projections, which involve uncertainty, especially concerning the results for women born in 1980 and later. In addition, information on IUI could not be included, which led to underestimation of the frequency of births after ART treatment. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The results of our study contribute new insights to the research field of declining fertility rates in Europe and many other parts of the world.

Economic recession and fertility in the developed world.

This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession­including the fertility declines before and during the Great Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.

Declining trends in conception rates in recent birth cohorts of native Danish women: a possible role of deteriorating male reproductive health.

Recent findings of poor semen quality among at least 20% of normal young men in Denmark prompted us to use unique Danish registers on births and induced abortions to evaluate a possible effect of the poor male fecundity on pregnancy rates among their presumed partners--the younger cohorts of women. We have analysed data from the Danish birth and abortion registries as well as the Danish registry for assisted reproduction (ART) and defined a total natural conception rate (TNCR), which is equal to fertility rate plus induced abortion rate minus ART conception rate. A unique personal identification number allowed the linkage of these databases. Our database included 706,270 native Danish women born between 1960 and 1980. We used projections to estimate the fertility of the later cohorts of women who had not yet finished their reproduction. We found that younger cohorts had progressively lower TNCR and that in terms of their total fertility rate, the declining TNCR is compensated by an increasing use of ART. Our hypothesis of an ongoing birth cohort-related decline in fecundity was also supported by our finding of increasing and substantial use of ART in the management of infertility of relatively young couples in the later cohorts. Furthermore, the lower rates of induced abortion among the younger birth cohorts, often viewed as a success of health education programs, may not be fully explained by improved use of contraception. It seems more likely that decreased fecundity because of widespread poor semen quality among younger cohorts of otherwise normal men may explain some of the observed decline in conception rates. This may imply increasing reproductive health problems and lower fertility in the future, which is difficult to reverse in the short term. The current and projected widespread use of ART in Denmark may be a sign of such an emerging public health problem.