Science and environmental policy establishment: the case of the Forest Act in the State of São Paulo, Brazil / Ciência e implementação de política ambiental: o caso do Código Florestal no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil

Abstract Natural ecosystems are under severe threat worldwide and environmental policies are essential to minimize present and future impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change. The New Forest Act in Brazil is the main policy to protect native vegetation in private lands, which comprise 54% of the remaining Brazilian native vegetation. However, conflicts between environmental and agricultural concerns in its implementation demand for balanced solutions based on scientific evidence. To face the challenge of applying science in environmental policy establishment, we developed a scientific project funded by the São Paulo State Research Foundation (FAPESP) to support the implementation of the New Forest Act in São Paulo State, as part of the Biota/FAPESP Program. The project was conducted differently from a regular research project: the broad objective was to provide scientific support to the State's implementation of the New Forest Act, based on a participatory interaction among stakeholders to build specific objectives, methods, and discussion of results, within an interdisciplinary and intersectoral research team. Here, we present the lessons learned during and after the four years of the research project development to evaluate how scientific knowledge can be produced and adopted in the implementation of a specific environmental policy. We present the main outcomes and the challenges faced in trying to include scientific data in the decision-making process. We also present current and future challenges in the New Forest Act implementation that could be solved with scientific evidence. The lessons learned showed that even designing the project in order to meet the needs to support the implementation of the environmental policy, avoiding difficulties normally pointed out by similar projects, there was a great difficulty for scientific contributions to be adopted in the decision-making process. Most of the scientific information and advice, even after discussion and common understanding among a diverse stakeholder group, were ignored or over-ruled in the final decision-making phases.

Resumo Os ecossistemas naturais estão sob grave ameaça em todo o mundo e as políticas ambientais são essenciais para minimizar os impactos presentes e futuros na biodiversidade, nos serviços ecossistêmicos e nas mudanças climáticas. O Novo Código Florestal no Brasil é a principal política de proteção da vegetação nativa em terras privadas, que compreende 54% da vegetação nativa remanescente brasileira. No entanto, os conflitos entre as preocupações ambientais e agrícolas na sua implementação exigem soluções equilibradas e baseadas em evidências científicas. Para enfrentar o desafio de aplicar a ciência no estabelecimento de políticas ambientais, desenvolvemos um projeto científico financiado pela Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) para apoiar a implementação do Novo Código Florestal no Estado de São Paulo, como parte do Programa Biota/FAPESP. O projeto foi conduzido de forma diferente de um projeto de pesquisa regular: o objetivo amplo foi fornecer suporte científico para a implementação do Novo Código Florestal pelo Estado, a partir de uma interação participativa entre as partes interessadas para construir objetivos específicos, métodos e discussão de resultados, dentro de uma equipe de pesquisa interdisciplinar e intersetorial. Aqui, apresentamos as lições aprendidas durante e após os quatro anos de desenvolvimento do projeto de pesquisa para avaliar como o conhecimento científico pode ser produzido e adotado na implementação de uma política ambiental específica. Apresentamos os principais resultados e os desafios enfrentados na tentativa de incluir dados científicos no processo decisório. Apresentamos também desafios atuais e futuros na implementação do Novo Código Florestal que podem ser resolvidos com evidências científicas. As lições aprendidas mostraram que mesmo concebendo o projeto de forma a atender as necessidades de apoio à implementação da política ambiental, evitando dificuldades normalmente apontadas por projetos semelhantes, houve uma grande dificuldade para que contribuições científicas fossem adotadas no processo decisório. A maioria das informações e conselhos científicos, mesmo após discussão e entendimento comum entre um grupo diversificado de partes interessadas, foi ignorada nas fases finais de tomada de decisão.

Disclosing contrasting scenarios for future land cover in Brazil: Results from a high-resolution spatiotemporal model.

Gaining information on the dynamics of land cover changes is a valuable step towards improving practical conservation actions. In recent years, the Brazilian presidential elections in 2018 and the recovery from one of the nation's worst economic recessions defined a political scenario that has been causing shifts in the patterns of land cover change. A variety of national plans for the near-future exist and include the construction of new roads connecting remote Amazonian areas and large dams that could flood up to 10 million hectares. These development plans threaten environmental conservation, but the potential effects on the local or regional land cover are mostly unknown. In this work, we construct a model to evaluate the possible consequences of policy actions on land cover dynamics in the near-future at a high-resolution scale. The regression model extracts the historical relationships between land cover and spatial drivers of change, and its extrapolation for the future enables the simulation of scenarios for the national plans currently discussed in Brazil. We also simulate three scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which makes contrasting management assumptions. The resulting maps indicate that considerable changes in land cover composition and configuration may occur even in a short period. The historical Brazilian economic forces make the decrease in natural vegetation probabilities challenging to stop even in an environmentally oriented scenario, where plans for the construction of new infrastructure are abruptly interrupted. Our results also indicate that environmental degradation cannot be prevented without coordinated efforts between public agencies with a broad diversity of development viewpoints.

Unfolding additional massive cutback effects of the Native Vegetation Protection Law on Legal Reserves, Brazil / Revelando reduções adicionais de Reserva Legal da Lei de Proteção da Vegetação Nativa, Brasil

Abstract: The Native Vegetation Protection Law - 2012 - (NVPL) is the main Brazilian regulation for protecting native vegetation (NV) on private land. The NVPL, currently in the implementation phase, reduced Legal Reserves (LR) requirements compared to its previous version, the 1965's Forest Act (FA), through several legal mechanisms. Among them, Article 68 (Art.68) exempts landholders from LR obligations if NV was converted without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion. The technical implementation of Art. 68 is controversial and its effects are still unknown. We developed a model to estimate the effects of Art.68 on LR using São Paulo State (Brazil) as case study. We analyzed former environmental laws to identify key periods in which NV preservation requirements had changed. After, we searched for past spatial data on NV cover with sufficient accuracy for each legal benchmark. Combining legal benchmarks with spatial data, we created two scenarios for Art.68 effects, plus a baseline scenario. The first scenario considered a single legal benchmark, the 1965's FA (scenario "1965"), while the other included the 1989 Cerrado's protection Federal Law as a second benchmark (scenario "1965/89"). The baseline scenario did not include Art.68 effects. Scenario "1965" reduced LR deficits in 49% compared to the baseline scenario, waiving landholders from restoration or offsetting needs in 423 thousand hectares (kha) of NV. Scenario "1965/89" waved 507 kha of NV from restoration needs and represented a 59% reduction in LR deficit compared to the baseline scenario. The LR reduction by scenario "1965/89" assumed particular importance considering that the additional cutback was concentrated on Cerrado, an already very fragmented and impacted region. Together with reductions from other NVPL rules, the additional effects of Art. 68 unfolded great concerns about the role of LR as a tool for NV preservation on private land, threating governmental restoration commitments, and pointing that conservation command and control approaches should be complemented with incentive policies to achieve the desired and committed standards.

Resumo: A Lei de Proteção da Vegetação Nativa - 2012 - (LPVN) é a principal lei brasileira para proteção da vegetação nativa (VN) em terras privadas. A LPVN, atualmente em fase de implementação, reduziu os requerimentos de Reserva Legal (RL) presentes no Código Florestal (CF) de 1965 através de uma série de mecanismos legais. Entre eles, o Artigo 68 (Art.68) elimina a obrigação de recomposição ou restauração da VN convertida sem violação da lei vigente à época da conversão. O Art.68 é um dos mais controversos mecanismos da LPVN e cujos efeitos ainda não são conhecidos. Nós desenvolvemos um modelo para estimar os efeitos do Art.68 utilizando o estado de São Paulo, Brasil, como estudo de caso. Para isso, levantamos marcos legais nos quais os requerimentos mínimos de preservação da VN foram alterados. Em seguida, levantamos a existência de dados espaciais da cobertura de VN com a precisão necessária para cada marco legal. Combinando os marcos legais com os dados espaciais encontrados, criamos dois cenários incluindo os efeitos do Art.68 e um cenário linha de base para controlar tais efeitos. O primeiro cenário considerou apenas um marco legal, o CF de 1965 (cenário "1965"), enquanto o segundo incluiu a Lei Federal de proteção ao Cerrado de 1989 (cenário "1965/89"). O cenário "1965" reduz os déficits de RL em 49% quando comparado ao cenário de base, dispensando os proprietários de terra da obrigação de restaurar ou recompor 423 mil hectares (kha) de VN. O cenário "1989/65" dispensa da obrigação de restauração ou recomposição 507 kha de VN, representando uma redução de 59% do déficit de RL em comparação ao cenário base. A redução apresentada pelo cenário "1965/89" assume grande importância uma vez que se concentra em áreas de Cerrado, bioma já extremamente fragmentado e impactado. Em conjunto com as reduções promovidas por outros Artigos da LPVN, estes efeitos revelam grande preocupação sobre o papel das RL como uma ferramenta para a conservação de VN em terras privadas, ameaçando compromissos governamentais de restauração e indicando que estratégias de comando e controle deverão ser complementadas por políticas de incentivo para atingir os objetivos de conservação desejados.

Who owns the Brazilian carbon?

Brazil is one of the major contributors to land-use change emissions, mostly driven by agricultural expansion for food, feed, and bioenergy feedstock. Policies to avoid deforestation related to private commitments, economic incentives, and other support schemes are expected to improve the effectiveness of current command and control mechanisms increasingly. However, until recently, land tenure was unknown for much of the Brazilian territory, which has undermined the governance of native vegetation and challenged support and incentive mechanisms for avoiding deforestation. We assess the total extent of public governance mechanisms protecting aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks. We constructed a land tenure dataset for the entire nation and modeled the effects and uncertainties of major land-use acts on protecting AGC stocks. Roughly 70% of the AGC stock in Brazil is estimated to be under legal protection, and an additional 20% is expected to be protected after areas in the Amazon with currently undesignated land undergo a tenure regularization. About 30% of the AGC stock is on private land, of which roughly two-thirds are protected. The Cerrado, Amazon, and Caatinga biomes hold about 40%, 30%, and 20% of the unprotected AGC, respectively. Effective conservation of protected and unprotected carbon will depend on successful implementation of the Forest Act, and regularization of land tenure in the Amazon. Policy development that prioritizes unprotected AGC stocks is warranted to promote conservation of native vegetation beyond the legal requirements. However, different biomes and land tenure structures may require different policy settings considering local and regional specifics. Finally, the fate of current AGC stocks relies upon effective implementation of command and control mechanisms, considering that unprotected AGC in native vegetation on private land only accounts for 6.5% of the total AGC stock.

Effects of Governance on Availability of Land for Agriculture and Conservation in Brazil.

The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and public governance for nature conservation and agricultural production. We present a spatially explicit land-use model for Brazilian agricultural production and nature conservation that considers the spatial distribution of agricultural land suitability, technological and management options, legal command, and control frameworks including the Atlantic Forest Law, the revised Forest Act, and the Amazonian land-titling, "Terra Legal," and also market-driven land use regulations. The model is used to analyze land use allocation under three scenarios with varying priorities among agricultural production and environmental protection objectives. In all scenarios, the legal command and control frameworks were the most important determinants of conservation outcomes, protecting at least 80% of the existing natural vegetation. Situations where such frameworks are not expected to be effective can be identified and targeted for additional conservation (beyond legal requirements) through voluntary actions or self-regulation in response to markets. All scenarios allow for a substantial increase in crop production, using an area 1.5-2.7 times the current cropland area, with much of new cropland occurring on current pastureland. Current public arrangements that promote conservation can, in conjunction with voluntary schemes on private lands where conversion to agriculture is favored, provide important additional nature conservation without conflicting with national agricultural production objectives.

Bioenergy and Biodiversity: Key Lessons from the Pan American Region.

Understanding how large-scale bioenergy production can affect biodiversity and ecosystems is important if society is to meet current and future sustainable development goals. A variety of bioenergy production systems have been established within different contexts throughout the Pan American region, with wide-ranging results in terms of documented and projected effects on biodiversity and ecosystems. The Pan American region is home to the majority of commercial bioenergy production and therefore the region offers a broad set of experiences and insights on both conflicts and opportunities for biodiversity and bioenergy. This paper synthesizes lessons learned focusing on experiences in Canada, the United States, and Brazil regarding the conflicts that can arise between bioenergy production and ecological conservation, and benefits that can be derived when bioenergy policies promote planning and more sustainable land-management systems. We propose a research agenda to address priority information gaps that are relevant to biodiversity concerns and related policy challenges in the Pan American region.

Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: an analysis of the 1975-2006 period.

Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975-1996 and 1996-2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium-resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land-use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960-2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land-use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land-use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land-use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center-western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.

A falsa dicotomia entre a preservação da vegetação natural e a produção agropecuária / The false dichotomy between preservation of the natural vegetation and food production in Brazil

Este artigo mostra através da análise de dados censitários sobre uso da terra no Brasil que a possível dicotomia entre a preservação da vegetação natural e a produção de alimentos na realidade não existe. Demonstramos que o Brasil já tem uma área desprovida de vegetação natural suficientemente grande para acomodar a expansão da produção agrícola. Demonstramos também que a maior expansão se dá nas áreas ocupadas pelas chamadas culturas de exportação - soja e cana-de-açúcar - e não propriamente nas áreas ocupadas por arroz, feijão e mandioca, que são consumidos de forma direta pelo mercado nacional. Pelo contrário, a área colhida de arroz e feijão tem inclusive decrescido nas últimas décadas, enquanto a área colhida de mandioca encontra-se praticamente constante há quatro décadas. Os maiores entraves para a produção de alimentos no Brasil não se devem a restrições supostamente impostas pelo Código Florestal, mas, sim, à enorme desigualdade na distribuição de terras, a restrição de crédito agrícola ao agricultor que produz alimentos de consumo direto, a falta de assistência técnica que o ajude a aumentar a sua produtividade, a falta de investimentos em infraestrutura para armazenamento e escoamento da produção agrícola, a restrições de financiamento e priorização do desenvolvimento e tecnologia que permita um aumento expressivo na lotação de nossas pastagens,.

Through the analysis of census data on land use in Brazil this article shows that the dichotomy between food production and preservation of natural vegetation used as the main driver to change the Forest Code is false. We showed here that Brazil has already cleared an area large enough that support the production of food, fiber and bioenergy to meet the requirements of the country and global markets. We also showed the area of export-oriented crops like soybean and sugar cane have been expanded significantly in the last decades, while staple crops like rice and bean have decreased and the area planted with cassava has been stable for the last four decades. At the same time we show that the productivity of export-oriented crops has increased in a much more significant rate than staple crops or cattle stocking rate, which in average is extremely low in Brazil. We concluded by stating that the real constraint for food production in Brazil does not rely on the Forest Code environmental restrictions but instead in inequalities in land distribution and income, coupled with lack of credit to small producers and investment in research and development in the staples crops of the country.

Brazilian agriculture and environmental legislation: status and future challenges.

Brazilian agriculture covers about one-third of the land area and is expected to expand further. We assessed the compliance of present Brazilian agriculture with environmental legislation and identified challenges for agricultural development connected to this legislation. We found (i) minor illegal land use in protected areas under public administration, (ii) a large deficit in legal reserves and protected riparian zones on private farmland, and (iii) large areas of unprotected natural vegetation in regions experiencing agriculture expansion. Achieving full compliance with the environmental laws as they presently stand would require drastic changes in agricultural land use, where large agricultural areas are taken out of production and converted back to natural vegetation. The outcome of a full compliance with environmental legislation might not be satisfactory due to leakage, where pristine unprotected areas become converted to compensate for lost production as current agricultural areas are reconverted to protected natural vegetation. Realizing the desired protection of biodiversity and natural vegetation, while expanding agriculture to meet food and biofuel demand, may require a new approach to environmental protection. New legal and regulatory instruments and the establishment of alternative development models should be considered.