Development and Validation of Algorithms to Identify COVID-19 Patients Using a US Electronic Health Records Database: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Introduction: In order to identify and evaluate candidate algorithms to detect COVID-19 cases in an electronic health record (EHR) database, this study examined and compared the utilization of acute respiratory disease codes from February to August 2020 versus the corresponding time period in the 3 years preceding. Methods: De-identified EHR data were used to identify codes of interest for candidate algorithms to identify COVID-19 patients. The number and proportion of patients who received a SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) within ±10 days of the occurrence of the diagnosis code and patients who tested positive among those with a test result were calculated, resulting in 11 candidate algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios assessed the candidate algorithms by clinical setting and time period. We adjusted for potential verification bias by weighting by the reciprocal of the estimated probability of verification. Results: From January to March 2020, the most commonly used diagnosis codes related to COVID-19 diagnosis were R06 (dyspnea) and R05 (cough). On or after April 1, 2020, the code with highest sensitivity for COVID-19, U07.1, had near perfect adjusted sensitivity (1.00 [95% CI 1.00, 1.00]) but low adjusted specificity (0.32 [95% CI 0.31, 0.33]) in hospitalized patients. Discussion: Algorithms based on the U07.1 code had high sensitivity among hospitalized patients, but low specificity, especially after April 2020. None of the combinations of ICD-10-CM codes assessed performed with a satisfactory combination of high sensitivity and high specificity when using the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR as the reference standard.

Trends in characteristics and outcomes among US adults hospitalised with COVID-19 throughout 2020: an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the temporal patterns of patient characteristics, treatments used and outcomes associated with COVID-19 in patients who were hospitalised for the disease between January and 15 November 2020. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: COVID-19 subset of the Optum deidentified electronic health records, including more than 1.8 million patients from across the USA. PARTICIPANTS: There were 51 510 hospitalised patients who met the COVID-19 definition, with 37 617 in the laboratory positive cohort and 13 893 in the clinical cohort. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident acute clinical outcomes, including in-hospital all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Respectively, 48% and 49% of the laboratory positive and clinical cohorts were women. The 50- 65 age group was the median age group for both cohorts. The use of antivirals and dexamethasone increased over time, fivefold and twofold, respectively, while the use of hydroxychloroquine declined by 98%. Among adult patients in the laboratory positive cohort, absolute age/sex standardised incidence proportion for in-hospital death changed by -0.036 per month (95% CI -0.042 to -0.031) from March to June 2020, but remained fairly flat from June to November, 2020 (0.001 (95% CI -0.001 to 0.003), 17.5% (660 deaths /3986 persons) in March and 10.2% (580/5137) in October); in the clinical cohort, the corresponding changes were -0.024 (95% CI -0.032 to -0.015) and 0.011 (95% CI 0.007 0.014), respectively (14.8% (175/1252) in March, 15.3% (189/1203) in October). Declines in the cumulative incidence of most acute clinical outcomes were observed in the laboratory positive cohort, but not for the clinical cohort. CONCLUSION: The incidence of adverse clinical outcomes remains high among COVID-19 patients with clinical diagnosis only. Patients with COVID-19 entering the hospital are at elevated risk of adverse outcomes.

Cinacalcet and gastrointestinal bleeding risk in patients receiving hemodialysis.

PURPOSE: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) is common among dialysis patients, and calcimimetics are a mainstay of treatment. This study assessed whether cinacalcet use is associated with gastrointestinal bleeding in a large hemodialysis cohort. METHODS: A linked database of clinical records and medical claims for patients receiving hemodialysis in a large dialysis organization, 2007-2010, was used. A nested case-control study was performed among patients aged ≥18 years who had received hemodialysis for ≥90 days, had Medicare Parts A, B, and D coverage for ≥1 year, and had clinical evidence of SHPT (parathyroid hormone >300 pg/mL). Cases were those who experienced death or hospitalization caused by gastrointestinal bleeding. Each case was matched to up to four controls. Exposure was measured by any cinacalcet use, current use, past use, cumulative exposure days, and cumulative dosage. Conditional logistic models were used to assess the association. RESULTS: Of 48 437 patients included, 2570 experienced gastrointestinal bleeding events (2498 non-fatal, 72 fatal), and 2465 (2397 non-fatal, 68 fatal) were matched to 9500 controls; 17.2% of cases and 15.8% of controls had cinacalcet exposure and 11.1% of both cases and controls had current use. The adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) of gastrointestinal bleeding for any use, current use, and past use of cinacalcet were 1.04 (0.91-1.19), 0.97 (0.83-1.13), and 1.22 (0.99-1.50), respectively, with no use as the reference. CONCLUSION: The results do not suggest an elevated risk of gastrointestinal bleeding resulting in hospitalization or death for hemodialysis patients exposed to cinacalcet.

Patient out-of-pocket costs for suspicious pulmonary nodule biopsy in lung cancer patients.

AIMS: Dynamic changes in the payer landscape have resulted in increasing out-of-pocket costs (OOPCs). Little is known about OOPC for patients undergoing biopsy for suspicious pulmonary nodules in the United States. This study seeks to describe the spectrum of OOPC for diagnostic tissue sampling for suspicious pulmonary nodule with an ultimate diagnosis of lung cancer. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adult patients with a primary lung cancer diagnosis and treatment who underwent diagnostic biopsy for suspicious pulmonary nodule utilizing IBM Marketscan Databases (2013-2017). Claims data included both total hospital and physician billed costs, insurer reimbursement and OOPC. OOPCs were further stratified by type of biopsy, whether the patient underwent a single or multiple biopsies, and year of biopsy. RESULTS: A total of 22,870 patients aged 18-95 who underwent diagnostic lung biopsy were identified. The gender ratio was 49:51 for female:male and 50% of patients were aged 65 or above. 78% of patients had a co-morbidity. The median OOPC for a patient receiving a single biopsy (any type) was $600, two biopsies: $706, three biopsies: $811, and four biopsies: $1,177. By biopsy type, the median OOPC for a patient requiring a single biopsy was $604 for percutaneous biopsy, $316 for surgical biopsy, $674 for bronchoscopic biopsy, and $545 for mediastinoscopic biopsy. LIMITATIONS: Under-estimation of OOP expenses from costs of transportation, job loss, and loss of productivity. Over-estimation of OOPC from lack of individual claims adjudication. CONCLUSIONS: The median OOPC for lung cancer patient requiring a single diagnostic lung biopsy is $600. Prior research indicates that almost 50% of the lung cancer patient population undergoes multiple biopsies increasing costs anywhere between 20% and 100% resulting in further patient financial burden for each episodic biopsy attempt. Further cost-effectiveness research is needed to differentiate various diagnostic technologies for lung biopsy.

Pediatric BMI changes during COVID-19 pandemic: An electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Beginning March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted different aspects of life. The impact on children's rate of weight gain has not been analysed. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used United States (US) Electronic Health Record (EHR) data from Optum® to calculate the age- and sex- adjusted change in BMI (∆BMIadj) in individual 6-to-17-year-old children between two well child checks (WCCs). The mean of individual ∆BMIadj during 2017-2020 was calculated by month. For September-December WCCs, the mean of individual ∆BMIadj (overall and by subgroup) was reported for 2020 and 2017-2019, and the impact of 2020 vs 2017-2019 was tested by multivariable linear regression. FINDINGS: The mean [95% Confidence Interval - CI] ∆BMIadj in September-December of 2020 was 0·62 [0·59,0·64] kg/m2, compared to 0·31 [0·29, 0·32] kg/m2 in previous years. The increase was most prominent in children with pre-existing obesity (1·16 [1·07,1·24] kg/m2 in 2020 versus 0·56 [0·52,0·61] kg/m2 in previous years), Hispanic children (0·93 [0·84,1·02] kg/m2 in 2020 versus 0·41 [0·36,0·46] kg/m2 in previous years), and children who lack commercial insurance (0·88 [0·81,0·95] kg/m2 in 2020 compared to 0·43 [0·39,0·47] kg/m2 in previous years). ∆BMIadj accelerated most in ages 8-12 and least in ages 15-17. INTERPRETATION: Children's rate of unhealthy weight gain increased notably during the COVID-19 pandemic across demographic groups, and most prominently in children already vulnerable to unhealthy weight gain. This data can inform policy decisions critical to child development and health as the pandemic continues to unfold. FUNDING: Amgen, Inc.

Real-world effectiveness of osteoporosis therapies for fracture reduction in post-menopausal women.

Studies examining real-world effectiveness of osteoporosis therapies are beset by limitations due to confounding by indication. By evaluating longitudinal changes in fracture incidence, we demonstrated that osteoporosis therapies are effective in reducing fracture risk in real-world practice settings. INTRODUCTION: Osteoporosis therapies have been shown to reduce incidence of vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. However, information on the real-world effectiveness of these therapies is limited. METHODS: We examined fracture risk reduction in older, post-menopausal women treated with osteoporosis therapies. Using Medicare claims, we identified 1,278,296 women age ≥ 65 years treated with zoledronic acid, oral bisphosphonates, denosumab, teriparatide, or raloxifene. Fracture incidence rates before and after treatment initiation were described to understand patients' fracture risk profile, and fracture reduction effectiveness of each therapy was evaluated as a longitudinal change in incidence rates. RESULTS: Fracture incidence rates increased during the period leading up to treatment initiation and were highest in the 3-month period most proximal to treatment initiation. Fracture incidence rates following treatment initiation were significantly lower than before treatment initiation. Compared with the 12-month pre-index period, there were reductions in clinical vertebral fractures for denosumab (45%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 39-51%), zoledronic acid (50%; 95% CI 47-52%), oral bisphosphonates (24%; 95% CI 22-26%), and teriparatide (72%; 95% CI 69-75%) during the subsequent 12 months. Relative to the first 3 months after initiation, clinical vertebral fractures were reduced for denosumab (51%; 95% CI 42-59%), zoledronic acid (25%; 95% CI 17-32%), oral bisphosphonates (23%; 95% CI 20-26%), and teriparatide (64%; 95% CI 58-69%) during the subsequent 12 months. CONCLUSION: In summary, reductions in fracture incidence over time were observed in cohorts of patients treated with osteoporosis therapies.

Active and passive surveillance of enoxaparin generics: a case study relevant to biosimilars.

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective analysis assessed the capability of active and passive safety surveillance systems to track product-specific safety events in the USA for branded and generic enoxaparin, a complex injectable subject to immune-related and other adverse events (AEs). METHODS: Analysis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) incidence was performed on benefit claims for commercial and Medicare supplemental-insured individuals newly treated with enoxaparin under pharmacy benefit (1 January 2009 - 30 June 2012). Additionally, spontaneous reports from the FDA AE Reporting System were reviewed to identify incidence and attribution of enoxaparin-related reports to specific manufacturers. RESULTS: Specific, dispensed products were identifiable from National Drug Codes only in pharmacy-benefit databases, permitting sensitive comparison of HIT incidence in nearly a third of patients treated with brand or generic enoxaparin. After originator medicine's loss of exclusivity, only 5% of spontaneous reports were processed by generic manufacturers; reports attributable to specific generics were approximately ninefold lower than expected based on market share. CONCLUSIONS: Claims data were useful for active surveillance of enoxaparin generics dispensed under pharmacy benefits but not for products administered under medical benefits. These findings suggest that the current spontaneous reporting system will not distinguish product-specific safety signals for products distributed by multiple manufacturers, including biosimilars.

Selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors and breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiologic and laboratory studies have suggested that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may reduce the risk of breast cancer through inhibition of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2). METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to measure the association between selective cox-2 inhibitors, particularly celecoxib, rofecoxib, valdecoxib and non-specific NSAID subgroups, and breast cancer risk. Between 2003 and 2006, a total of 18,368 incident breast cancer cases were identified in the Ingenix/Lab Rx insurance database, which contains clinical encounter and drug prescription data. Four controls per case were randomly selected, matched on age and time in database. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Breast cancer risk was inversely associated with both non-specific NSAID and selective COX-2 inhibitor use. Greater than 12 months' duration of use of Celecoxib at a standard dose (200mg/day) was associated with a 16% decrease in breast cancer risk (OR=0.84, 95% CI=0.73, 0.97). We observed the greatest risk reduction in association with >2 years of rofecoxib exposure (OR=0.54, 95% CI=0.37, 0.80). Acetaminophen, a compound with less biological plausibility for chemoprevention, showed no significant association with the risk of developing breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Consistent with animal models and laboratory investigations, higher doses of selective COX-2 inhibitors were more protective against breast cancer than non-specific NSAIDs. With exposure to rofecoxib, a selective COX-2 inhibitor, breast cancer risk reduction was appreciable (46%), suggesting a possible role for selective COX-2 inhibitors in breast cancer prophylaxis.

Evaluating emerging issues in epidemiology.

Industry and government institutions need a credible approach for evaluating and responding to emerging public health issues. Representatives of industry, government, and academia met under the auspices of the International Life Sciences Institute's Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) to develop successful strategies for dealing with emerging issues based on historical case studies. The case studies chosen for evaluation were (1) tampon use and toxic shock syndrome; (2) hazardous waste and childhood cancer risk in Toms River, New Jersey; (3) fenfluramine and phentermine use and valvular heart disease; (4) silicone breast implants and cancer and auto-immune disease; and (5) progestational drugs and birth defects. We identified eight lessons from these case studies. Foremost, we recommend that public and private institutions not defer action until an issue is scientifically resolved and stress that cooperation among issue stakeholders is critical for effective issue resolution. We suggest establishing a research program as an effective way to assure that good science is included in resolution of the issue. We further recommend frequent and timely communication with all stakeholders, and the development of research approaches to fill gaps when the scientific data on an issue are limited.