Limitations of trait-based approaches for stressor assessment: The case of freshwater invertebrates and climate drivers.

The appeal of trait-based approaches for assessing environmental vulnerabilities arises from the potential insight they provide into the mechanisms underlying the changes in populations and community structure. Traits can provide ecologically based explanations for observed responses to environmental changes, along with predictive power gained by developing relationships between traits and environmental variables. Despite these potential benefits, questions remain regarding the utility and limitations of these approaches, which we explore focusing on the following questions: (a) How reliable are predictions of biotic responses to changing conditions based on single trait-environment relationships? (b) What factors constrain detection of single trait-environment relationships, and how can they be addressed? (c) Can we use information on meta-community processes to reveal conditions when assumptions underlying trait-based studies are not met? We address these questions by reviewing published literature on aquatic invertebrate communities from stream ecosystems. Our findings help to define factors that influence the successful application of trait-based approaches in addressing the complex, multifaceted effects of changing climate conditions on hydrologic and thermal regimes in stream ecosystems. Key conclusions are that observed relationships between traits and environmental stressors are often inconsistent with predefined hypotheses derived from current trait-based thinking, particularly related to single trait-environment relationships. Factors that can influence findings of trait-based assessments include intercorrelations of among traits and among environmental variables, spatial scale, strength of biotic interactions, intensity of habitat disturbance, degree of abiotic stress, and methods of trait characterization. Several recommendations are made for practice and further study to address these concerns, including using phylogenetic relatedness to address intercorrelation. With proper consideration of these issues, trait-based assessment of organismal vulnerability to environmental changes can become a useful tool to conserve threatened populations into the future.

Effects of extreme high flow events on macroinvertebrate communities in Vermont streams.

Heavy precipitation events and subsequent high flows are occurring with greater frequency and intensity, which could have substantial implications for biomonitoring programs that typically evaluate changes in biological condition due to stressors at local and watershed scales. In this study we evaluated response and recovery of macroinvertebrate communities at nine reference quality streams located in multiple watersheds throughout Vermont to flooding from Tropical Storm (TS) Irene in 2011. At each site, the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation (VT DEC) had collected macroinvertebrate data on an annual basis from 2009-2013. We compared the data collected in the days and weeks following TS Irene (2011) to samples collected for 2 years prior to the event (2009-2010) and 2 years after (2012-2013). While most metrics used in Vermont's biocriteria did not demonstrate a response to TS Irene, density showed a significant reduction in 2011 (across sites, percent change ranged from -24 to -91%; mean -66%). The percent change in density at each site was significantly correlated with the amount of localized rainfall during the storm (r s = -0.79, p = .02) and was most evident at small to medium-sized, high gradient streams. Reduced density caused several of these sites to fail to meet minimum criteria for biological integrity, though densities rebounded the following year. While the quick recovery indicated resiliency at these reference streams, the timing and magnitude of flood events may decrease the ability of biomonitoring programs to accurately evaluate the effect of watershed stressors.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 1: FLOW, WATER TEMPERATURE, SALTWATER INTRUSION.

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on U.S. water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al. (2019), we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 2: NUTRIENTS, ALGAL BLOOMS, SEDIMENT, PATHOGENS.

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many U.S. locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.