Predicting Inadequate Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery: Derivation and Validation of a Four Factor Model.

INTRODUCTION: Weight loss following bariatric surgery is variable and predicting inadequate weight loss is required to help select patients for bariatric surgery. The aim of the present study was to determine variables associated with inadequate weight loss and to derive and validate a predictive model. METHODS: All patients who underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastrectomy (2008-2022) in a tertiary referral centre were followed up prospectively. Inadequate weight loss was defined as excess weight loss (EWL) < 50% by 24 months. A top-down approach was performed using multivariate logistic regression and then internally validated using bootstrapping. Patients were categorised into risk groups. RESULTS: A total of 280 patients (median age, 49 years; M:F, 69:211) were included (146 LSG; 134 LRYGB). At 24 months, the median total weight loss was 30.9% and 80.0% achieved EWL ≥ 50% by 24 months. Variables associated with inadequate weight loss were T2DM (OR 2.42; p = 0.042), age 51-60 (OR 1.93, p = 0.006), age > 60 (OR 4.93, p < 0.001), starting BMI > 50 kg/m² (OR 1.93, p = 0.037) and pre-operative weight loss (OR 3.51; p = 0.036). The validation C-index was 0.75 (slope = 0.89). Low, medium and high-risk groups had a 4.9%, 16.7% and 44.6% risk of inadequate weight loss, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate weight loss can be predicted using a four factor model which could help patients and clinicians in decision-making for bariatric surgery.

Prevalence of gestational diabetes in the United States and Canada: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: An understanding of the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus among pregnant women is essential at local, national and international level so that appropriate health care interventions can be planned, financed and delivered. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of primary research reporting the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus in Canada or the United States were carried out according to Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines. Four electronic databases were systematically searched in June 2023 to identify articles that reported gestational diabetes mellitus prevalence using universal screening in pregnant women from eligible general population samples. Estimates were combined using a random effects model, and the effects of moderator variables analysed. RESULTS: There were 36 separate samples of women or deliveries (total sample size 1,550,917). Overall mean prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus was 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.3); 13.7% (95% CI: 10.7-17.3) in studies using a one-step screening strategy, and 5.2% (95% CI: 4.4-6.1) in those using a two-step strategy. Heterogeneity in technical methods between studies produced differences in estimates, as did different diagnostic thresholds used. CONCLUSIONS: The meta-analysis suggests a slightly higher prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus in Canada and the United States, compared to Europe, but highlights the need for standardised protocols for estimating gestational diabetes mellitus prevalence.

Intensive pre-operative information course (IPIC) and pre-operative weight loss results in long-term sustained weight loss following bariatric surgery: 11 years results from a tertiary referral centre.

INTRODUCTION: Outcomes of long-term (5-10-year) weight loss have not been investigated thoroughly and the role of pre-operative weight loss on long-term weight loss, among other factors, are unknown. Our regional bariatric service introduced a 12 week intensive pre-operative information course (IPIC) to optimise pre-operative weight loss and provide education prior to bariatric surgery. The present study determines the effect of pre-operative weight loss and an intense pre-operative information course (IPIC), on long-term weight outcomes and sustained weight loss post-bariatric surgery. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively from a bariatric center (2008-2022). Excess weight loss (EWL) ≥ 50% and ≥ 70% were considered outcome measures. Survival analysis and logistic regression identified variables associated with overall and sustained EWL ≥ 50% and ≥ 70%. RESULTS: Three hundred thirty-nine patients (median age, 49 years; median follow-up, 7 years [0.5-11 years]; median EWL%, 49.6%.) were evaluated, including 158 gastric sleeve and 161 gastric bypass. During follow-up 273 patients (80.5%) and 196 patients (53.1%) achieved EWL ≥ 50% and ≥ 70%, respectively. In multivariate survival analyses, pre-operative weight loss through IPIC, both < 10.5% and > 10.5% EWL, were positively associated with EWL ≥ 50% (HR 2.23, p < 0.001) and EWL ≥ 70% (HR 3.24, p < 0.001), respectively. After a median of 6.5 years after achieving EWL50% or EWL70%, 56.8% (154/271) had sustained EWL50% and 50.6% (85/168) sustained EWL70%. Higher pre-operative weight loss through IPIC increased the likelihood of sustained EWL ≥ 50% (OR, 2.36; p = 0.013) and EWL ≥ 70% (OR, 2.03; p = 0.011) at the end of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: IPIC and higher pre-operative weight loss improve weight loss post-bariatric surgery and reduce the likelihood of weight regain during long-term follow-up.

The global burden of hospitalisation due to pneumonia caused by Staphylococcus aureus in the under-5 years children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate the global hospitalisation due to Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia in under-5 children. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of primary studies following the PRISMA-P guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Global Index Medicus, Scopus, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, and CQvip. We included studies reporting data on Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia, confirmed by detection of the pathogen in sterile-site samples in under-5 hospitalised children, published in English or Chinese language and conducted between 1st January 1990 and 4th November 2021 and between 1st January 1990 and 30th September 2020, respectively. We excluded those testing upper respiratory tract samples and not reporting data on samples with other bacteria or absence of bacteria. We screened papers against pre-specified criteria, extracted data and assessed the bacteriological quality, and combined epidemiological and microbiological quality of studies using two self-designed checklists. Pooled proportions of hospitalisation episodes for Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia amongst all-cause pneumonia and the 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the random-effects model. The review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021236606). FINDINGS: Of 26,218 studies identified, thirty-five studies enroling 20,708 hospitalised pneumonia episodes were included. Out of the total hospitalised pneumonia cases in this population, the pooled proportion of Staphylococcal pneumonia cases was 3% (95% CI 2% to 4%; I2=96%). amongst 12 studies with higher microbiological quality, the pooled estimate was 6% (95% CI 2% to 10%; I2= 98%). Based on the recent global estimates of hospitalised pneumonia in this age group, the 3% and 6% estimates represent 738 thousand and 1.48 million hospitalisations in 2019, respectively. Based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE), the overall quality of evidence was considered to be moderate. INTERPRETATION: Our findings are probably an underestimate because of the unknown and the likely limited sensitivity of current testing methods for Staphylococcal pneumonia diagnosis and widespread reported use of antibiotics before recruitment (in 46% of cases). Staphylococcus aureus is an important cause of hospitalisation for pneumonia in young children globally. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP 1,172,551) through a prime award to John Hopkins University.