Frailty, multimorbidity and polypharmacy: exploratory analyses of the effects of empagliflozin from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are recommended treatment for adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but uncertainty exists regarding their use in patients with frailty and/or multimorbidity, among whom polypharmacy is common. We derived a multivariable logistic regression model to predict hospitalization (reflecting frailty) and assessed empagliflozin's risk-benefit profile in a post-hoc analysis of the double-blind, placebo-controlled EMPA-KIDNEY trial. METHODS: The EMPA-KIDNEY trial randomized 6609 patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥20<45 mL/min/1.73m2, or ≥45<90 mL/min/1.73m2 with urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥200 mg/g) to receive either empagliflozin 10 mg daily or matching placebo and followed for two years (median). Additional characteristics analysed in subgroups were multimorbidity, polypharmacy and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at baseline. Cox regression analyses were performed with subgroups defined by approximate thirds of each variable. RESULTS: The strongest predictors of hospitalization were N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide, poor mobility and diabetes; then eGFR and other comorbidities. Empagliflozin was generally well-tolerated independent of predicted risk of hospitalization. In relative terms, allocation to empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death by 28% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.82); and all-cause hospitalization by 14% (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95); with broadly consistent effects across subgroups of predicted risk of hospitalization, multimorbidity, polypharmacy or HRQoL. In absolute terms, the estimated benefits of empagliflozin were greater in those at highest predicted risk of hospitalization (reflecting frailty) and outweighed potential serious harms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the use of SGLT2 inhibitors in CKD, irrespective of frailty, multimorbidity or polypharmacy.

Efficacy and safety of SGLT2 inhibitors with and without glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists: a SMART-C collaborative meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists both improve cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. We sought to evaluate whether the benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors are consistent in patients receiving and not receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists. METHODS: We conducted a collaborative meta-analysis of trials included in the SGLT2 Inhibitor Meta-Analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists' Consortium, restricted to participants with diabetes. Treatment effects from individual trials were obtained from Cox regression models and pooled using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. The two main cardiovascular outcomes assessed included major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death), and hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death. The main kidney outcomes assessed were chronic kidney disease progression (≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], kidney failure [eGFR <15 mL/min/1·73 m2, chronic dialysis, or kidney transplantation], or death due to kidney failure), and the rate of change in eGFR over time. Safety outcomes were also assessed. FINDINGS: Across 12 randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, 3065 (4·2%) of 73 238 participants with diabetes were using GLP-1 receptor agonists at baseline. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in participants both receiving and not receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists (hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·63-1·03 vs 0·90, 0·86-0·94; p-heterogeneity=0·31). Effects on hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death (0·76, 0·57-1·01 vs 0·78, 0·74-0·82; p-heterogeneity=0·90) and chronic kidney disease progression (0·65, 0·46-0·94 vs 0·67, 0·62-0·72; p-heterogeneity=0·81) were also consistent regardless of GLP-1 receptor agonist use, as was the effect on the chronic rate of change in eGFR over time (heterogeneity=0·92). Fewer serious adverse events occurred with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo, irrespective of GLP-1 receptor agonist use (relative risk 0·87, 95% CI 0·79-0·96 vs 0·91, 0·89-0·93; p-heterogeneity=0·41). INTERPRETATION: The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on cardiovascular and kidney outcomes are consistent regardless of the background use of GLP-1 receptor agonists. These findings suggest independent effects of these evidence-based therapies and support clinical practice guidelines recommending the use of these agents in combination to improve cardiovascular and kidney metabolic outcomes. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Ramaciotti Foundation.

Office measurement vs. ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: associations with mortality in patients with or without diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Guidelines suggest similar blood pressure (BP) targets in patients with and without diabetes and recommend ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) to diagnose and classify hypertension. It was explored whether different levels of ambulatory and office BP and different hypertension phenotypes associate with differences of risk in diabetes and no diabetes. METHODS: This analysis assessed outcome data from the Spanish ABPM Registry in 59 124 patients with complete available data. The associations between office, mean, daytime, and nighttime ambulatory BP with the risk in patients with or without diabetes were explored. The effects of diabetes on mortality in different hypertension phenotypes, i.e. sustained hypertension, white-coat hypertension, and masked hypertension, compared with normotension were studied. Analyses were done with Cox regression analyses and adjusted for demographic and clinical confounders. RESULTS: A total of 59 124 patients were recruited from 223 primary care centres in Spain. The majority had an office systolic BP >140 mmHg (36 700 patients), and 23 128 (40.6%) patients were untreated. Diabetes was diagnosed in 11 391 patients (19.2%). Concomitant cardiovascular (CV) disease was present in 2521 patients (23.1%) with diabetes and 4616 (10.0%) without diabetes. Twenty-four-hour mean, daytime, and nighttime ambulatory BP were associated with increased risk in diabetes and no diabetes, while in office BP, there was no clear association with no differences with and without diabetes. While the relative association of BP to CV death risk was similar in diabetes compared with no diabetes (mean interaction P = .80, daytime interaction P = .97, and nighttime interaction P = .32), increased event rates occurred in diabetes for all ABPM parameters for CV death and all-cause death. White-coat hypertension was not associated with risk for CV death (hazard ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.72-1.03) and slightly reduced risk for all-cause death in no diabetes (hazard ratio 0.89; confidence interval 0.81-0.98) but without significant interaction between diabetes and no diabetes. Sustained hypertension and masked hypertension in diabetes and no diabetes were associated with even higher risk. There were no significant interactions in hypertensive phenotypes between diabetes and no diabetes and CV death risk (interaction P = .26), while some interaction was present for all-cause death (interaction P = .043) and non-CV death (interaction P = .053). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes increased the risk for all-cause death, CV, and non-CV death at every level of office and ambulatory BP. Masked and sustained hypertension confer to the highest risk, while white-coat hypertension appears grossly neutral without interaction of relative risk between diabetes and no diabetes. These results support recommendations of international guidelines for strict BP control and using ABPM for classification and assessment of risk and control of hypertension, particularly in patients with diabetes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A SMART-C Collaborative Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) consistently improve heart failure and kidney-related outcomes; however, effects on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) across different patient populations are less clear. METHODS: This was a collaborative trial-level meta-analysis from the SGLT2i Meta-analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists Consortium, which includes all phase 3, placebo-controlled, outcomes trials of SGLT2i across 3 patient populations (patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure [HF], or chronic kidney disease). The outcomes of interest were MACE (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction , or stroke), individual components of MACE (inclusive of fatal and nonfatal events), all-cause mortality, and death subtypes. Effect estimates for SGLT2i versus placebo were meta-analyzed across trials and examined across key subgroups (established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, previous HF, albuminuria, chronic kidney disease stages, and risk groups). RESULTS: A total of 78 607 patients across 11 trials were included: 42 568 (54.2%), 20 725 (26.4%), and 15 314 (19.5%) were included from trials of patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, HF, or chronic kidney disease, respectively. SGLT2i reduced the rate of MACE by 9% (hazard ration [HR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96], P<0.0001) with a consistent effect across all 3 patient populations (I2=0%) and across all key subgroups. This effect was primarily driven by a reduction in cardiovascular death (HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92], P<0.0001), with no significant effect for myocardial infarction in the overall population (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.87-1.04], P=0.29), and no effect on stroke (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.91-1.07], P=0.77). The benefit for cardiovascular death was driven primarily by reductions in HF death and sudden cardiac death (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.46-1.02] and HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95], respectively) and was generally consistent across subgroups, with the possible exception of being more apparent in those with albuminuria (Pinteraction=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i reduce the risk of MACE across a broad range of patients irrespective of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney function, or other major clinical characteristics at baseline. This effect is driven primarily by a reduction of cardiovascular death, particularly HF death and sudden cardiac death, without a significant effect on myocardial infarction in the overall population, and no effect on stroke. These data may help inform selection for SGLT2i therapies across the spectrum of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic disease.

Artificial Intelligence-Derived Risk Prediction: A Novel Risk Calculator Using Office and Ambulatory Blood Pressure.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of total cardiovascular risk is essential for individualizing hypertension treatment. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel, machine-learning-derived model to predict cardiovascular mortality risk using office blood pressure (OBP) and ambulatory blood pressure (ABP). METHODS: The performance of the novel risk score was compared with existing risk scores, and the possibility of predicting ABP phenotypes utilizing clinical variables was assessed. Using data from 59 124 patients enrolled in the Spanish ABP Monitoring registry, machine-learning approaches (logistic regression, gradient-boosted decision trees, and deep neural networks) and stepwise forward feature selection were used. RESULTS: For the prediction of cardiovascular mortality, deep neural networks yielded the highest clinical performance. The novel mortality prediction models using OBP and ABP outperformed other risk scores. The area under the curve achieved by the novel approach, already when using OBP variables, was significantly higher when compared with the area under the curve of the Framingham risk score, Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation 2, and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease score. However, the prediction of cardiovascular mortality with ABP instead of OBP data significantly increased the area under the curve (0.870 versus 0.865; P=3.61×10-28), accuracy, and specificity, respectively. The prediction of ABP phenotypes (ie, white-coat, ambulatory, and masked hypertension) using clinical characteristics was limited. CONCLUSIONS: The receiver operating characteristic curves for cardiovascular mortality using ABP and OBP with deep neural network models outperformed all other risk metrics, indicating the potential for improving current risk scores by applying state-of-the-art machine learning approaches. The prediction of cardiovascular mortality using ABP data led to a significant increase in area under the curve and performance metrics.

Effects of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Death in Patients with CKD: A Meta-Analysis of CKD Progression Trials.

Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT02065791 (CREDENCE), NCT03036150 (DAPA-CKD), NCT03594110 (EMPA-KIDNEY).

A blunted nocturnal blood pressure decline is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

OBJECTIVE: It has been suggested that a blunted nocturnal blood pressure (BP) decline is associated with a poor prognosis. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if an abnormal dipping is deleterious per se or it merely reflects an elevated BP during sleep. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of nocturnal BP decline, with or without concomitant elevated nocturnal BP. METHODS: Vital status and cause of death were obtained from death certificates in 59 124 patients, enrolled in the Spanish ABPM Registry between 2004 and 2014 (median follow-up: 10 years). The association between night-to-day ratio (NDR) and dipping patterns (extreme dippers, dippers, reduced dippers, and risers) with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated by Cox-proportional models adjusted for clinical confounders and 24 h blood pressure. RESULTS: NDR was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio for 1SD change: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.17]. Reduced dippers (1.13; 1.06-1.20) and risers (1.41; 1.32-1.51) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause death, whereas extreme dippers (0.90; 0.79-1.02) were not. Elevated NDR (≥0.9) in the absence of elevated night SBP (<120 mmHg) was associated with an increased risk of death (1.13; 1.04-1.22), as well as elevated night SBP but normal NDR (1.38; 1.26-1.50), and the combination of both abnormalities (1.56; 1.46-1.66). Similar results were obtained for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: Abnormalities in the circadian pattern are associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. This is maintained even in the absence of nocturnal BP elevation.

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial.

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome.

Effects of Empagliflozin on Fluid Overload, Weight, and Blood Pressure in CKD.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: SGLT2 inhibitors reduce risk of kidney progression, AKI, and cardiovascular disease, but the mechanisms of benefit are incompletely understood. Bioimpedance spectroscopy can estimate body water and fat mass. One quarter of the EMPA-KIDNEY bioimpedance substudy CKD population had clinically significant levels of bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" at recruitment. Empagliflozin induced a prompt and sustained reduction in "Fluid Overload," irrespective of sex, diabetes, and baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or eGFR. No significant effect on bioimpedance-derived fat mass was observed. The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on body water may be one of the contributing mechanisms by which they mediate effects on cardiovascular risk. BACKGROUND: CKD is associated with fluid excess that can be estimated by bioimpedance spectroscopy. We aimed to assess effects of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition on bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" and adiposity in a CKD population. METHODS: EMPA-KIDNEY was a double-blind placebo-controlled trial of empagliflozin 10 mg once daily in patients with CKD at risk of progression. In a substudy, bioimpedance measurements were added to the main trial procedures at randomization and at 2- and 18-month follow-up visits. The substudy's primary outcome was the study-average difference in absolute "Fluid Overload" (an estimate of excess extracellular water) analyzed using a mixed model repeated measures approach. RESULTS: The 660 substudy participants were broadly representative of the 6609-participant trial population. Substudy mean baseline absolute "Fluid Overload" was 0.4±1.7 L. Compared with placebo, the overall mean absolute "Fluid Overload" difference among those allocated empagliflozin was -0.24 L (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.38 to -0.11), with similar sized differences at 2 and 18 months, and in prespecified subgroups. Total body water differences comprised between-group differences in extracellular water of -0.49 L (95% CI, -0.69 to -0.30, including the -0.24 L "Fluid Overload" difference) and a -0.30 L (95% CI, -0.57 to -0.03) difference in intracellular water. There was no significant effect of empagliflozin on bioimpedance-derived adipose tissue mass (-0.28 kg [95% CI, -1.41 to 0.85]). The between-group difference in weight was -0.7 kg (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In a broad range of patients with CKD, empagliflozin resulted in a sustained reduction in a bioimpedance-derived estimate of fluid overload, with no statistically significant effect on fat mass. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03594110 ; EuDRACT: 2017-002971-24 ( https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/ ).

Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity.

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.

UK Kidney Association Clinical Practice Guideline: Sodium-Glucose Co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) Inhibition in Adults with Kidney Disease 2023 UPDATE.

Large placebo-controlled trials have demonstrated kidney and cardiovascular clinical benefits of SGLT-2 inhibitors. Data from the EMPA-KIDNEY and DELIVER trials and associated meta-analyses triggered an update to the UK Kidney Association Clinical Practice Guideline on Sodium-Glucose Co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) Inhibition in Adults with Kidney Disease. We provide a summary of the full guideline and highlight the rationale for recent updates. The use of SGLT-2 inhibitors in people with specific medical conditions, including type 1 diabetes, kidney transplants, and people admitted to hospital with heart failure is also considered, along with Recommendations for future research and Recommendations for implementation. A full "lay" summary of the guidelines is provided as an appendix to ensure that these guidelines are accessible and understandable to people who are not medical professionals.

Impact of outcome adjudication in kidney disease trials: observations from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP).

Introduction: We aimed to assess opportunities for trial streamlining and the scientific impact of adjudication on kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in CKD. Methods: We analysed the effects of adjudication of ~2100 maintenance kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and ~1300 major atherosclerotic events (MAEs) recorded in SHARP. We first compared outcome classification before versus after adjudication, and then re-ran randomised comparisons using pre-adjudicated follow-up data. Results: For maintenance KRT, adjudication had little impact with only 1% of events being refuted (28/2115). Consequently, randomised comparisons using pre-adjudication reports found almost identical results (pre-adjudication: simvastatin/ezetimibe 1038 vs placebo 1077; risk ratio [RR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.88-1.04; post-adjudicated: 1057 vs 1084; RR=0.97, 95%CI 0.89-1.05). For MAEs, about one-quarter of patient reports were refuted (324/1275 [25%]), and reviewing 3538 other potential vascular events and death reports identified only 194 additional MAEs. Nevertheless, randomised analyses using SHARP's pre-adjudicated data alone found similar results to analyses based on adjudicated outcomes (pre-adjudication: 573 vs 702; RR=0.80, 95%CI 0.72-0.89; adjudicated: 526 vs 619; RR=0.83, 95%CI 0.74- 0.94), and also suggested refuted MAEs were likely to represent atherosclerotic disease (RR for refuted MAEs=0.80, 95%CI 0.65-1.00). Conclusions: These analyses provide three key insights. First, they provide a rationale for nephrology trials not to adjudicate maintenance KRT. Secondly, when an event that mimics an atherosclerotic outcome is not expected to be influenced by the treatment under study (e.g. heart failure), the aim of adjudicating atherosclerotic outcomes should be to remove such events. Lastly, restrictive definitions for the remaining suspected atherosclerotic outcomes may reduce statistical power.

Reliability of major bleeding events in UK routine data versus clinical trial adjudicated follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess how reliable UK routine data are for ascertaining major bleeding events compared with adjudicated follow-up. METHODS: The ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) primary prevention trial randomised 15 480 UK people with diabetes to aspirin versus matching placebo. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including intracranial haemorrhage, sight-threatening eye bleeding, serious gastrointestinal bleeding and other major bleeding (epistaxis, haemoptysis, haematuria, vaginal and other bleeding)) ascertained by direct-participant mail-based follow-up, with >90% of outcomes undergoing adjudication. Nearly all participants were linked to routinely collected hospitalisation and death data (ie, routine data). An algorithm categorised bleeding events from routine data as major/minor. Kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between data sources, and randomised comparisons were re-run using routine data. RESULTS: When adjudicated follow-up and routine data were compared, there was agreement for 318 major bleeding events, with routine data identifying 281 additional-potential events, and not identifying 241 participant-reported events (kappa 0.53, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.57). Repeating ASCEND's randomised comparisons using routine data only found estimated relative and absolute effects of allocation to aspirin versus placebo on major bleeding similar to adjudicated follow-up (adjudicated follow-up: aspirin 314 (4.1%) vs placebo 245 (3.2%); rate ratio (RR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; absolute excess +6.3/5000 person-years (mean SE±2.1); vs routine data: 327 (4.2%) vs 272 (3.5%); RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.41; absolute excess +5.0/5000 (±2.2)). CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of the ASCEND randomised trial found that major bleeding events ascertained via UK routine data sources provided relative and absolute treatment effects similar to adjudicated follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN60635500; NCT00135226.

Relationship between clinic and ambulatory blood pressure and mortality: an observational cohort study in 59 124 patients.

BACKGROUND: Ambulatory blood pressure provides a more comprehensive assessment than clinic blood pressure, and has been reported to better predict health outcomes than clinic or home pressure. We aimed to examine associations of clinic and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of primary care patients referred for assessment of hypertension. METHODS: We did an observational cohort study using clinic and ambulatory blood pressure data obtained from March 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2014, from the Spanish Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry. This registry included patients from 223 primary care centres from the Spanish National Health System in all 17 regions of Spain. Mortality data (date and cause) were ascertained by a computerised search of the vital registry of the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. Complete data were available for age, sex, all blood pressure measures, and BMI. For each study participant, follow-up was from the date of their recruitment to the date of death or Dec 31, 2019, whichever occurred first. Cox models were used to estimate associations between usual clinic or ambulatory blood pressure and mortality, adjusted for confounders and additionally for alternative measures of blood pressure. For each measure of blood pressure, we created five groups (ie, fifths) defined by quintiles of that measure among those who subsequently died. FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 9·7 years, 7174 (12·1%) of 59 124 patients died, including 2361 (4·0%) from cardiovascular causes. J-shaped associations were observed for several blood pressure measures. Among the top four baseline-defined fifths, 24-h systolic blood pressure was more strongly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1·41 per 1 - SD increment [95% CI 1·36-1·47]) than clinic systolic blood pressure (1·18 [1·13-1·23]). After adjustment for clinic blood pressure, 24-h blood pressure remained strongly associated with all-cause deaths (HR 1·43 [95% CI 1·37-1·49]), but the association between clinic blood pressure and all-cause death was attenuated when adjusted for 24-h blood pressure (1·04 [1·00-1·09]). Compared with the informativeness of clinic systolic blood pressure (100%), night-time systolic blood pressure was most informative about risk of all-cause death (591%) and cardiovascular death (604%). Relative to blood pressure within the normal range, elevated all-cause mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·12-1·37]) and sustained hypertension (1·24 [1·15-1·32]), but not white-coat hypertension, and elevated cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (1·37 [1·15-1·63]) and sustained hypertension (1·38 [1·22-1·55]), but not white-coat hypertension. INTERPRETATION: Ambulatory blood pressure, particularly night-time blood pressure, was more informative about the risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death than clinic blood pressure. FUNDING: Spanish Society of Hypertension, Lacer Laboratories, UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centres (Oxford and University College London Hospitals), and British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) is associated with a range of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases in conventional epidemiological studies, but substantial residual confounding may exist. Mendelian randomization approaches can help control for such confounding. METHODS: SCALLOP Consortium data of 19,195 participants were used to generate an FGF-23 genetic score. Data from 337,448 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate associations between higher genetically predicted FGF-23 concentration and the odds of any atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (n=26,266 events), nonatherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (n=12,652), and noncardiovascular diseases previously linked to FGF-23. Measurements of carotid intima-media thickness and left ventricular mass were available in a subset. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were also tested in three large case-control consortia: CARDIOGRAMplusC4D (coronary artery disease, n=181,249 cases), MEGASTROKE (stroke, n=34,217), and HERMES (heart failure, n=47,309). RESULTS: We identified 34 independent variants for circulating FGF-23, which formed a validated genetic score. There were no associations between genetically predicted FGF-23 and any of the cardiovascular or noncardiovascular outcomes. In UK Biobank, the odds ratio (OR) for any atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease per 1-SD higher genetically predicted logFGF-23 was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.98 to 1.08), and for any nonatherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, it was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.09). The ORs in the case-control consortia were 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.03) for coronary artery disease, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.07) for stroke, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.05) for heart failure. In those with imaging, logFGF-23 was not associated with carotid or cardiac abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically predicted FGF-23 levels are not associated with atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, suggesting no important causal link. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2023_01_10_CJN05080422.mp3.