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1.
Pediatr Res ; 2024 May 14.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38745028

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether computational electroencephalogram (EEG) measures during the first day of life correlate to clinical outcomes in infants with perinatal asphyxia with or without hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). METHODS: We analyzed four-channel EEG monitoring data from 91 newborn infants after perinatal asphyxia. Altogether 42 automatically computed amplitude- and synchrony-related EEG features were extracted as 2-hourly average at very early (6 h) and early (24 h) postnatal age; they were correlated to the severity of HIE in all infants, and to four clinical outcomes available in a subcohort of 40 newborns: time to full oral feeding (nasogastric tube NGT), neonatal brain MRI, Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination (HINE) at three months, and Griffiths Scales at two years. RESULTS: At 6 h, altogether 14 (33%) EEG features correlated significantly to the HIE grade ([r]= 0.39-0.61, p < 0.05), and one feature correlated to NGT ([r]= 0.50). At 24 h, altogether 13 (31%) EEG features correlated significantly to the HIE grade ([r]= 0.39-0.56), six features correlated to NGT ([r]= 0.36-0.49) and HINE ([r]= 0.39-0.61), while no features correlated to MRI or Griffiths Scales. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the automatically computed measures of early cortical activity may provide outcome biomarkers for clinical and research purposes. IMPACT: The early EEG background and its recovery after perinatal asphyxia reflect initial severity of encephalopathy and its clinical recovery, respectively. Computational EEG features from the early hours of life show robust correlations to HIE grades and to early clinical outcomes. Computational EEG features may have potential to be used as cortical activity biomarkers in early hours after perinatal asphyxia.

3.
Clin Neurophysiol ; 162: 68-76, 2024 Jun.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38583406

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the utility of a fully automated deep learning -based quantitative measure of EEG background, Brain State of the Newborn (BSN), for early prediction of clinical outcome at four years of age. METHODS: The EEG monitoring data from eighty consecutive newborns was analyzed using the automatically computed BSN trend. BSN levels during the first days of life (a of total 5427 hours) were compared to four clinical outcome categories: favorable, cerebral palsy (CP), CP with epilepsy, and death. The time dependent changes in BSN-based prediction for different outcomes were assessed by positive/negative predictive value (PPV/NPV) and by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The BSN values were closely aligned with four visually determined EEG categories (p < 0·001), as well as with respect to clinical milestones of EEG recovery in perinatal Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy (HIE; p < 0·003). Favorable outcome was related to a rapid recovery of the BSN trend, while worse outcomes related to a slow BSN recovery. Outcome predictions with BSN were accurate from 6 to 48 hours of age: For the favorable outcome, the AUC ranged from 95 to 99% (peak at 12 hours), and for the poor outcome the AUC ranged from 96 to 99% (peak at 12 hours). The optimal BSN levels for each PPV/NPV estimate changed substantially during the first 48 hours, ranging from 20 to 80. CONCLUSIONS: We show that the BSN provides an automated, objective, and continuous measure of brain activity in newborns. SIGNIFICANCE: The BSN trend discloses the dynamic nature that exists in both cerebral recovery and outcome prediction, supports individualized patient care, rapid stratification and early prognosis.


Asphyxia Neonatorum , Brain , Electroencephalography , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Electroencephalography/methods , Electroencephalography/trends , Asphyxia Neonatorum/physiopathology , Asphyxia Neonatorum/diagnosis , Male , Female , Brain/physiopathology , Hypoxia-Ischemia, Brain/physiopathology , Hypoxia-Ischemia, Brain/diagnosis , Cerebral Palsy/physiopathology , Cerebral Palsy/diagnosis , Predictive Value of Tests , Child, Preschool , Deep Learning , Prognosis
4.
EBioMedicine ; 102: 105061, 2024 Apr.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38537603

BACKGROUND: In children, objective, quantitative tools that determine functional neurodevelopment are scarce and rarely scalable for clinical use. Direct recordings of cortical activity using routinely acquired electroencephalography (EEG) offer reliable measures of brain function. METHODS: We developed and validated a measure of functional brain age (FBA) using a residual neural network-based interpretation of the paediatric EEG. In this cross-sectional study, we included 1056 children with typical development ranging in age from 1 month to 18 years. We analysed a 10- to 15-min segment of 18-channel EEG recorded during light sleep (N1 and N2 states). FINDINGS: The FBA had a weighted mean absolute error (wMAE) of 0.85 years (95% CI: 0.69-1.02; n = 1056). A two-channel version of the FBA had a wMAE of 1.51 years (95% CI: 1.30-1.73; n = 1056) and was validated on an independent set of EEG recordings (wMAE = 2.27 years, 95% CI: 1.90-2.65; n = 723). Group-level maturational delays were also detected in a small cohort of children with Trisomy 21 (Cohen's d = 0.36, p = 0.028). INTERPRETATION: A FBA, based on EEG, is an accurate, practical and scalable automated tool to track brain function maturation throughout childhood with accuracy comparable to widely used physical growth charts. FUNDING: This research was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia, Helsinki University Diagnostic Center Research Funds, Finnish Academy, Finnish Paediatric Foundation, and Sigrid Juselius Foundation.


Brain , Growth Charts , Humans , Child , Adolescent , Cross-Sectional Studies , Neural Networks, Computer , Electroencephalography
5.
Pediatr Res ; 95(1): 193-199, 2024 Jan.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37500756

BACKGROUND: Automated computational measures of EEG have the potential for large-scale application. We hypothesised that a predefined measure of early EEG-burst shape (increased burst sharpness) could predict neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) and mental developmental index (MDI) at 2 years of age over-and-above that of brain ultrasound. METHODS: We carried out a secondary analysis of data from extremely preterm infants collected for an RCT (SafeBoosC-II). Two hours of single-channel cross-brain EEG was used to analyse burst sharpness with an automated algorithm. The co-primary outcomes were moderate-or-severe NDI and MDI. Complete data were available from 58 infants. A predefined statistical analysis was adjusted for GA, sex and no, mild-moderate, and severe brain injury as detected by cranial ultrasound. RESULTS: Nine infants had moderate-or-severe NDI and the mean MDI was 87 ± 17.3 SD. The typical burst sharpness was low (negative values) and varied relatively little (mean -0.81 ± 0.11 SD), but the odds ratio for NDI was increased by 3.8 (p = 0.008) and the MDI was reduced by -3.2 points (p = 0.14) per 0.1 burst sharpness units increase (+1 SD) in the adjusted analysis. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the association between EEG-burst measures in preterm infants and neurodevelopment in childhood. Importantly, this was by a priori defined analysis. IMPACT: A fully automated, computational measure of EEG in the first week of life was predictive of neurodevelopmental impairment at 2 years of age. This confirms many previous studies using expert reading of EEG. Only single-channel EEG data were used, adding to the applicability. EEG was recorded by several different devices thus this measure appears to be robust to differences in electrodes, amplifiers and filters. The likelihood ratio of a positive EEG test, however, was only about 2, suggesting little immediate clinical value.


Brain , Infant, Extremely Premature , Infant , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Echoencephalography , Ultrasonography , Electroencephalography
6.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38082782

Functional brain age measures in children, derived from the electroencephalogram (EEG), offer direct and objective measures in assessing neurodevelopmental status. Here we explored the effectiveness of 32 preselected 'handcrafted' EEG features in predicting brain age in children. These features were benchmarked against a large library of highly comparative multivariate time series features (>7000 features). Results showed that age predictors based on handcrafted EEG features consistently outperformed a generic set of time series features. These findings suggest that optimization of brain age estimation in children benefits from careful preselection of EEG features that are related to age and neurodevelopmental trajectory. This approach shows potential for clinical translation in the future.Clinical Relevance-Handcrafted EEG features provide an accurate functional neurodevelopmental biomarker that tracks brain function maturity in children.


Brain , Electroencephalography , Child , Humans , Time Factors , Electroencephalography/methods , Benchmarking
7.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38083721

The measurement of heart rate variability (HRV) in preterm infants provides important information on function to clinicians. Measuring the underlying electrocardiogram (ECG) in the neonatal intensive care unit is a challenge and there is a trade off between extracting accurate measurements of the HRV and the amount of ECG processed due to contamination. Knowledge on the effects of 1) quantization in the time domain and 2) missing data on the calculation of HRV features will inform clinical implementation. In this paper, we studied multiple 5 minute epochs from 148 ECG recordings on 56 extremely preterm infants. We found that temporal adjustment of NN peaks improves the estimate of the NN interval resulting in HRV features (m = 9) that are better correlated with age (median percentage increase in correlation of individual features: 0.2%, IQR: 0.0 to 5.6%; correlation with age predictor and age from 0.721 to 0.787). Improved (sub-sample) quantization of the NN intervals (via interpolation) reduced the overall value of HRV features (median percentage reduction in feature value: -1.3%, IQR: -18.8 to 0.0; m = 9), primarily through a reduction in the energy of high-frequency oscillations. HRV features were also robust to missing data, with measures such as mean NN, fractal dimension and the smoothed nonlinear energy operator (SNEO) less susceptible to missing data than features such as VLF, LF, and HF. Furthermore, age predictions derived from a combination of HRV measures were more robust to missing data than individual HRV measures.Clinical Relevance-Poor quantization in time when estimating the NN peak and the presence of missing data confound HRV measures, particularly spectral measures.


Electrocardiography , Infant, Extremely Premature , Infant , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Heart Rate/physiology , Fractals
8.
Physiol Meas ; 44(7)2023 07 31.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37442141

Objective. To overcome the effects of site differences in EEG-based brain age prediction in preterm infants.Approach. We used a 'bag of features' with a combination function estimated using support vector regression (SVR) and feature selection (filter then wrapper) to predict post-menstrual age (PMA). The SVR was trained on a dataset containing 138 EEG recordings from 37 preterm infants (site 1). A separate set of 36 EEG recordings from 36 preterm infants was used to validate the age predictor (site 2). The feature distributions were compared between sites and a restricted feature set was constructed using only features that were not significantly different between sites. The mean absolute error between predicted age and PMA was used to define the accuracy of prediction and successful validation was defined as no significant differences in error between site 1 (cross-validation) and site 2.Main results. The age predictor based on all features and trained on site 1 was not validated on site 2 (p< 0.001; MAE site 1 = 1.0 weeks,n= 59 versus MAE site 2 = 2.1 weeks,n= 36). The MAE was improved by training on a restricted features set (MAE site 1 = 1.0 weeks,n= 59 versus MAE site 2 = 1.1 weeks,n= 36), resulting in a validated age predictor when applied to site 2 (p= 0.68). The features selected from the restricted feature set when training on site 1 closely aligned with features selected when trained on a combination of data from site 1 and site 2.Significance. The ability of EEG classifiers, such as brain age prediction, to maintain accuracy on data collected at other sites may be challenged by unexpected, site-dependent differences in EEG signals. Permitting a small amount of data leakage between sites improves generalization, leading towards universal methods of EEG interpretation in preterm infants.


Electroencephalography , Infant, Premature , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Electroencephalography/methods , Algorithms , Brain
9.
Pediatr Res ; 94(1): 206-212, 2023 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36376508

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth predisposes infants to adverse outcomes that, without early intervention, impacts their long-term health. To assist bedside monitoring, we developed a tool to track the autonomic maturation of the preterm by assessing heart rate variability (HRV) changes during intensive care. METHODS: Electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings were longitudinally recorded in 67 infants (26-38 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA)). Supervised machine learning was used to generate a functional autonomic age (FAA), by combining 50 computed HRV features from successive 5-minute ECG epochs (median of 23 epochs per infant). Performance of the FAA was assessed by correlation to PMA, clinical outcomes and the infant's functional brain age (FBA), an index of maturation derived from the electroencephalogram. RESULTS: The FAA was strongly correlated to PMA (r = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.83-0.93) with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.66 weeks and also accurately estimated FBA (MAE = 1.58 weeks, n = 54 infants). The relationship between PMA and FAA was not confounded by neurodevelopmental outcome (p = 0.18, n = 45), sex (p = 0.88, n = 56), patent ductus arteriosus (p = 0.08, n = 56), IVH (p = 0.63, n = 56) or body weight at birth (p = 0.95, n = 56). CONCLUSIONS: The FAA, an index derived from the ubiquitous ECG signal, offers direct avenues towards estimating autonomic maturation at the bedside during intensive care monitoring. IMPACT: The development of a tool to track functional autonomic age in preterm infants based on heart rate variability features in the electrocardiogram provides a rapid and specialized view of autonomic maturation at the bedside. Functional autonomic age is linked closely to postmenstrual age and central nervous system function response, as determined by its relationship to functional brain age from the electroencephalogram. Tracking functional autonomic age during neonatal intensive care unit monitoring offers a unique insight into cardiovascular health in infants born extremely preterm and their maturational trajectories to term age.


Infant, Premature , Premature Birth , Infant , Female , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Autonomic Nervous System/physiology , Heart Rate/physiology , Intensive Care Units, Neonatal
11.
Lancet Digit Health ; 4(12): e884-e892, 2022 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36427950

BACKGROUND: Electroencephalogram (EEG) monitoring is recommended as routine in newborn neurocritical care to facilitate early therapeutic decisions and outcome predictions. EEG's larger-scale implementation is, however, hindered by the shortage of expertise needed for the interpretation of spontaneous cortical activity, the EEG background. We developed an automated algorithm that transforms EEG recordings to quantified interpretations of EEG background and provides simple intuitive visualisations in patient monitors. METHODS: In this method-development and proof-of-concept study, we collected visually classified EEGs from infants recovering from birth asphyxia or stroke. We used unsupervised learning methods to explore latent EEG characteristics, which guided the supervised training of a deep learning-based classifier. We assessed the classifier performance using cross-validation and an external validation dataset. We constructed a novel measure of cortical function, brain state of the newborn (BSN), from the novel EEG background classifier and a previously published sleep-state classifier. We estimated clinical utility of the BSN by identification of two key items in newborn brain monitoring, the onset of continuous cortical activity and sleep-wake cycling, compared with the visual interpretation of the raw EEG signal and the amplitude-integrated (aEEG) trend. FINDINGS: We collected 2561 h of EEG from 39 infants (gestational age 35·0-42·1 weeks; postnatal age 0-7 days). The external validation dataset included 105 h of EEG from 31 full-term infants. The overall accuracy of the EEG background classifier was 92% in the whole cohort (95% CI 91-96; range 85-100 for individual infants). BSN trend values were closely related to the onset of continuous EEG activity or sleep-wake cycling, and BSN levels showed robust difference between aEEG categories. The temporal evolution of the BSN trends showed early diverging trajectories in infants with severely abnormal outcomes. INTERPRETATION: The BSN trend can be implemented in bedside patient monitors as an EEG interpretation that is intuitive, transparent, and clinically explainable. A quantitative trend measure of brain function might harmonise practices across medical centres, enable wider use of brain monitoring in neurocritical care, and might facilitate clinical intervention trials. FUNDING: European Training Networks Funding Scheme, the Academy of Finland, Finnish Pediatric Foundation (Lastentautiensäätiö), Aivosäätiö, Sigrid Juselius Foundation, HUS Children's Hospital, HUS Diagnostic Center, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.


Deep Learning , Infant, Newborn , Infant , Humans , Child , Electroencephalography/methods , Brain , Sleep , Monitoring, Physiologic
12.
Hum Brain Mapp ; 43(16): 4914-4923, 2022 11.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36073656

The primary aim of this study is to examine whether bursting interhemispheric synchrony (bIHS) in the first week of life of infants born extremely preterm, is associated with microstructural development of the corpus callosum (CC) on term equivalent age magnetic resonance imaging scans. The secondary aim is to address the effects of analgesics such as morphine, on bIHS in extremely preterm infants. A total of 25 extremely preterm infants (gestational age [GA] < 28 weeks) were monitored with the continuous two-channel EEG during the first 72 h and after 1 week from birth. bIHS was analyzed using the activation synchrony index (ASI) algorithm. Microstructural development of the CC was assessed at ~ 30 and ~ 40 weeks of postmenstrual age (PMA) using fractional anisotropy (FA) measurements. Multivariable regression analyses were used to assess the primary and secondary aim. Analyses were adjusted for important clinical confounders: morphine, birth weight z-score, and white matter injury score. Due to the reduced sample size, only the most relevant variables, according to literature, were included. ASI was not significantly associated with FA of the CC at 30 weeks PMA and at 40 weeks PMA (p > .5). ASI was positively associated with the administration of morphine (p < .05). Early cortical synchrony may be affected by morphine and is not associated with the microstructural development of the CC. More studies are needed to evaluate the long-term effects of neonatal morphine treatment to optimize sedation in this high-risk population.


Corpus Callosum , White Matter , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Corpus Callosum/diagnostic imaging , Infant, Extremely Premature , Diffusion Tensor Imaging/methods , Morphine/pharmacology , Brain/pathology , White Matter/diagnostic imaging
13.
Clin Neurophysiol ; 143: 75-83, 2022 11.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36155385

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an automated method for bedside monitoring of sleep state fluctuations in neonatal intensive care units. METHODS: A deep learning-based algorithm was designed and trained using 53 EEG recordings from a long-term (a)EEG monitoring in 30 near-term neonates. The results were validated using an independent dataset from 30 polysomnography recordings. In addition, we constructed Sleep State Trend (SST), a bedside-ready means for visualizing classifier outputs. RESULTS: The accuracy of quiet sleep detection in the training data was 90%, and the accuracy was comparable (85-86 %) in all bipolar derivations available from the 4-electrode recordings. The algorithm generalized well to a polysomnography dataset, showing 81% overall accuracy despite different signal derivations. SST allowed an intuitive, clear visualization of the classifier output. CONCLUSIONS: Fluctuations in sleep states can be detected at high fidelity from a single EEG channel, and the results can be visualized as a transparent and intuitive trend in the bedside monitors. SIGNIFICANCE: The Sleep State Trend (SST) may provide caregivers and clinical studies a real-time view of sleep state fluctuations and its cyclicity.


Electroencephalography , Sleep , Algorithms , Electroencephalography/methods , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Polysomnography , Sleep/physiology , Sleep Stages/physiology
14.
Sci Transl Med ; 14(664): eabq4786, 2022 09 28.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36170448

Exposure to environmental adversities during early brain development, such as preterm birth, can affect early brain organization. Here, we studied whether development of cortical activity networks in preterm infants may be improved by a multimodal environmental enrichment via bedside facilitation of mother-infant emotional connection. We examined functional cortico-cortical connectivity at term age using high-density electroencephalography recordings in infants participating in a randomized controlled trial of Family Nurture Intervention (FNI). Our results identify several large-scale, frequency-specific network effects of FNI, most extensively in the alpha frequency in fronto-central cortical regions. The connectivity strength in this network was correlated to later neurocognitive performance, and it was comparable to healthy term-born infants rather than the infants receiving standard care. These findings suggest that preterm neurodevelopmental care can be improved by a biologically driven environmental enrichment, such as early facilitation of direct human connection.


Cerebral Cortex , Emotions , Infant, Premature , Mother-Child Relations , Cerebral Cortex/physiology , Electroencephalography , Emotions/physiology , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Premature/psychology , Mother-Child Relations/psychology
15.
IEEE J Transl Eng Health Med ; 10: 4901111, 2022.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36147876

OBJECTIVE: Sharing medical data between institutions is difficult in practice due to data protection laws and official procedures within institutions. Therefore, most existing algorithms are trained on relatively small electroencephalogram (EEG) data sets which is likely to be detrimental to prediction accuracy. In this work, we simulate a case when the data can not be shared by splitting the publicly available data set into disjoint sets representing data in individual institutions. METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We propose to train a (local) detector in each institution and aggregate their individual predictions into one final prediction. Four aggregation schemes are compared, namely, the majority vote, the mean, the weighted mean and the Dawid-Skene method. The method was validated on an independent data set using only a subset of EEG channels. RESULTS: The ensemble reaches accuracy comparable to a single detector trained on all the data when sufficient amount of data is available in each institution. CONCLUSION: The weighted mean aggregation scheme showed best performance, it was only marginally outperformed by the Dawid-Skene method when local detectors approach performance of a single detector trained on all available data. CLINICAL IMPACT: Ensemble learning allows training of reliable algorithms for neonatal EEG analysis without a need to share the potentially sensitive EEG data between institutions.


Electroencephalography , Seizures , Algorithms , Electroencephalography/methods , Humans , Learning , Machine Learning , Seizures/diagnosis
16.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 380(2233): 20210311, 2022 Oct 03.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35965469

Long-term control of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks depends on the widespread coverage of effective vaccines. In Australia, two-dose vaccination coverage of above 90% of the adult population was achieved. However, between August 2020 and August 2021, hesitancy fluctuated dramatically. This raised the question of whether settings with low naturally derived immunity, such as Queensland where less than [Formula: see text] of the population is known to have been infected in 2020, could have achieved herd immunity against 2021's variants of concern. To address this question, we used the agent-based model Covasim. We simulated outbreak scenarios (with the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants) and assumed ongoing interventions (testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine). We modelled vaccination using two approaches with different levels of realism. Hesitancy was modelled using Australian survey data. We found that with a vaccine effectiveness against infection of 80%, it was possible to control outbreaks of Alpha, but not Delta or Omicron. With 90% effectiveness, Delta outbreaks may have been preventable, but not Omicron outbreaks. We also estimated that a decrease in hesitancy from 20% to 14% reduced the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths by over 30%. Overall, we demonstrate that while herd immunity may not be attainable, modest reductions in hesitancy and increases in vaccine uptake may greatly improve health outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.


COVID-19 , Immunity, Herd , Australia/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , Queensland/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination
17.
Comput Biol Med ; 145: 105399, 2022 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35381454

Neonatal seizure detection algorithms (SDA) are approaching the benchmark of human expert annotation. Measures of algorithm generalizability and non-inferiority as well as measures of clinical efficacy are needed to assess the full scope of neonatal SDA performance. We validated our neonatal SDA on an independent data set of 28 neonates. Generalizability was tested by comparing the performance of the original training set (cross-validation) to its performance on the validation set. Non-inferiority was tested by assessing inter-observer agreement between combinations of SDA and two human expert annotations. Clinical efficacy was tested by comparing how the SDA and human experts quantified seizure burden and identified clinically significant periods of seizure activity in the EEG. Algorithm performance was consistent between training and validation sets with no significant worsening in AUC (p > 0.05, n = 28). SDA output was inferior to the annotation of the human expert, however, re-training with an increased diversity of data resulted in non-inferior performance (Δκ = 0.077, 95% CI: -0.002-0.232, n = 18). The SDA assessment of seizure burden had an accuracy ranging from 89 to 93%, and 87% for identifying periods of clinical interest. The proposed SDA is approaching human equivalence and provides a clinically relevant interpretation of the EEG.


Epilepsy , Infant, Newborn, Diseases , Algorithms , Electroencephalography/methods , Epilepsy/diagnosis , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Newborn, Diseases/diagnosis , Seizures/diagnosis , Support Vector Machine , Treatment Outcome
18.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 6309, 2022 04 15.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35428853

We used an agent-based model Covasim to assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARSCoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. The model was calibrated using the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Then, using the calibrated model, we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate due to leakage of infected cases with high-transmission variants, during a period without recorded cases of locally acquired infections, known in Australian settings as "zero community transmission". We also examined how the threat of new variants reduces given a range of vaccination levels. Specifically, the model calibration covered the first-wave period from early March 2020 to May 2020. Predicted epidemic trajectories were simulated from early February 2021 to late March 2021. Our simulations showed that one infected agent with the ancestral (A.2.2) variant has a 14% chance of crossing a threshold of sustained community transmission (SCT) (i.e., > 5 infections per day, more than 3 days in a row), assuming no change in the prevailing preventative and counteracting policies. However, one agent carrying the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant has a 43% chance of crossing the same threshold; a threefold increase with respect to the ancestral strain; while, one agent carrying the delta (B.1.617.2) variant has a 60% chance of the same threshold, a fourfold increase with respect to the ancestral strain. The delta variant is 50% more likely to trigger SCT than the alpha variant. Doubling the average number of daily tests from ∼ 6,000 to 12,000 results in a decrease of this SCT probability from 43 to 33% for the alpha variant. However, if the delta variant is circulating we would need an average of 100,000 daily tests to achieve a similar decrease in SCT risk. Further, achieving a full-vaccination coverage of 70% of the adult population, with a vaccine with 70% effectiveness against infection, would decrease the probability of SCT from a single seed of alpha from 43 to 20%, on par with the ancestral strain in a naive population. In contrast, for the same vaccine coverage and same effectiveness, the probability of SCT from a single seed of delta would decrease from 62 to 48%, a risk slightly above the alpha variant in a naive population. Our results demonstrate that the introduction of even a small number of people infected with high-transmission variants dramatically increases the probability of sustained community transmission in Queensland. Until very high vaccine coverage is achieved, a swift implementation of policies and interventions, together with high quarantine adherence rates, will be required to minimise the probability of sustained community transmission.


COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Australia/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Queensland/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics
19.
Pediatr Res ; 92(6): 1527-1534, 2022 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35197567

Foetal growth restriction (FGR) and being born small for gestational age (SGA) are associated with neurodevelopmental delay. Early diagnosis of neurological damage is difficult in FGR and SGA neonates. Electroencephalography (EEG) has the potential as a tool for the assessment of brain development in FGR/SGA neonates. In this review, we analyse the evidence base on the use of EEG for the assessment of neonates with FGR or SGA. We found consistent findings that FGR/SGA is associated with measurable changes in the EEG that present immediately after birth and persist into childhood. Early manifestations of FGR/SGA in the EEG include changes in spectral power, symmetry/synchrony, sleep-wake cycling, and the continuity of EEG amplitude. Later manifestations of FGR/SGA into infancy and early childhood include changes in spectral power, sleep architecture, and EEG amplitude. FGR/SGA infants had poorer neurodevelopmental outcomes than appropriate for gestational age controls. The EEG has the potential to identify FGR/SGA infants and assess the functional correlates of neurological damage. IMPACT: FGR/SGA neonates have significantly different EEG activity compared to AGA neonates. EEG differences persist into childhood and are associated with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. EEG has the potential for early identification of brain impairment in FGR/SGA neonates.


Fetal Growth Retardation , Infant, Small for Gestational Age , Child, Preschool , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Infant , Female , Humans , Fetal Growth Retardation/diagnosis , Birth Weight , Parturition , Gestational Age
20.
Front Hum Neurosci ; 15: 675154, 2021.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34135744

Neonatal brain monitoring in the neonatal intensive care units (NICU) requires a continuous review of the spontaneous cortical activity, i.e., the electroencephalograph (EEG) background activity. This needs development of bedside methods for an automated assessment of the EEG background activity. In this paper, we present development of the key components of a neonatal EEG background classifier, starting from the visual background scoring to classifier design, and finally to possible bedside visualization of the classifier results. A dataset with 13,200 5-minute EEG epochs (8-16 channels) from 27 infants with birth asphyxia was used for classifier training after scoring by two independent experts. We tested three classifier designs based on 98 computational features, and their performance was assessed with respect to scoring system, pre- and post-processing of labels and outputs, choice of channels, and visualization in monitor displays. The optimal solution achieved an overall classification accuracy of 97% with a range across subjects of 81-100%. We identified a set of 23 features that make the classifier highly robust to the choice of channels and missing data due to artefact rejection. Our results showed that an automated bedside classifier of EEG background is achievable, and we publish the full classifier algorithm to allow further clinical replication and validation studies.

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