Prediction of survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the updated Swedish cardiac arrest risk score (SCARS) model.

Aims: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major health concern worldwide. Although one-third of all patients achieve a return of spontaneous circulation and may undergo a difficult period in the intensive care unit, only 1 in 10 survive. This study aims to improve our previously developed machine learning model for early prognostication of survival in OHCA. Methods and results: We studied all cases registered in the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry during 2010 and 2020 (n = 55 615). We compared the predictive performance of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), logistic regression, CatBoost, random forest, and TabNet. For each framework, we developed models that optimized (i) a weighted F1 score to penalize models that yielded more false negatives and (ii) a precision-recall area under the curve (PR AUC). LightGBM assigned higher importance values to a larger set of variables, while XGB made predictions using fewer predictors. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC ROC) scores for LightGBM were 0.958 (optimized for weighted F1) and 0.961 (optimized for a PR AUC), while for XGB, the scores were 0.958 and 0.960, respectively. The calibration plots showed a subtle underestimation of survival for LightGBM, contrasting with a mild overestimation for XGB models. In the crucial range of 0-10% likelihood of survival, the XGB model, optimized with the PR AUC, emerged as a clinically safe model. Conclusion: We improved our previous prediction model by creating a parsimonious model with an AUC ROC at 0.96, with excellent calibration and no apparent risk of underestimating survival in the critical probability range (0-10%). The model is available at www.gocares.se.

Early ICD implantation following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective cohort study from the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is generally beneficial in survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). OBJECTIVE: We studied the association between ICD implantation prior to discharge and survival in patients with cardiac aetiology or initial shockable rhythm in OHCA. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. Treatment associations were estimated using propensity scores. We used gradient boosting, Bayesian additive regression trees, neural networks, extreme gradient boosting and logistic regression to generate multiple propensity scores. We selected the model yielding maximum covariate balance to obtain weights, which were used in a Cox regression to calculate HRs for death or recurrent cardiac arrest. PARTICIPANTS: All cases discharged alive during 2010 to 2020 with a cardiac aetiology or initial shockable rhythm were included. A total of 959 individuals were discharged with an ICD, and 2046 were discharged without one. RESULTS: Among those experiencing events, 25% did so within 90 days in the ICD group, compared with 52% in the other group. All HRs favoured ICD implantation. The overall HR (95% CI) for ICD versus no ICD was 0.38 (0.26 to 0.56). The HR was 0.42 (0.28 to 0.63) in cases with initial shockable rhythm; 0.18 (0.06 to 0.58) in non-shockable rhythm; 0.32 (0.20 to 0.53) in cases with a history of coronary artery disease; 0.36 (0.22 to 0.61) in heart failure and 0.30 (0.13 to 0.69) in those with diabetes. Similar associations were noted in all subgroups. CONCLUSION: Among survivors of OHCA, those discharged with an ICD had approximately 60% lower risk of death or recurrent cardiac arrest. A randomised trial is warranted to study this further.

Trends in survival after cardiac arrest: a Swedish nationwide study over 30 years.

AIMS: Trends in characteristics, management, and survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) were studied in the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry (SCRR). METHODS AND RESULTS: The SCRR was used to study 106 296 cases of OHCA (1990-2020) and 30 032 cases of IHCA (2004-20) in whom resuscitation was attempted. In OHCA, survival increased from 5.7% in 1990 to 10.1% in 2011 and remained unchanged thereafter. Odds ratios [ORs, 95% confidence interval (CI)] for survival in 2017-20 vs. 1990-93 were 2.17 (1.93-2.43) overall, 2.36 (2.07-2.71) for men, and 1.67 (1.34-2.10) for women. Survival increased for all aetiologies, except trauma, suffocation, and drowning. OR for cardiac aetiology in 2017-20 vs. 1990-93 was 0.45 (0.42-0.48). Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation increased from 30.9% to 82.2%. Shockable rhythm decreased from 39.5% in 1990 to 17.4% in 2020. Use of targeted temperature management decreased from 42.1% (2010) to 18.2% (2020). In IHCA, OR for survival in 2017-20 vs. 2004-07 was 1.18 (1.06-1.31), showing a non-linear trend with probability of survival increasing by 46.6% during 2011-20. Myocardial ischaemia or infarction as aetiology decreased during 2004-20 from 67.4% to 28.3% [OR 0.30 (0.27-0.34)]. Shockable rhythm decreased from 37.4% to 23.0% [OR 0.57 (0.51-0.64)]. Approximately 90% of survivors (IHCA and OHCA) had no or mild neurological sequelae. CONCLUSION: Survival increased 2.2-fold in OHCA during 1990-2020 but without any improvement in the final decade, and 1.2-fold in IHCA during 2004-20, with rapid improvement the last decade. Cardiac aetiology and shockable rhythms were halved. Neurological outcome has not improved.

Cohort study of the characteristics and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and in-hospital cardiac arrest.

OBJECTIVE: We studied characteristics, survival, causes of cardiac arrest, conditions preceding cardiac arrest, predictors of survival and trends in the prevalence of COVID-19 among in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) cases. DESIGN AND SETTING: Registry-based observational study. PARTICIPANTS: We studied all cases (≥18 years of age) of IHCA receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation during 15 March 2020 to 31 December 2020. A total of 1613 patients were included and divided into the following groups: ongoing infection (COVID-19+; n=182), no infection (COVID-19-; n=1062) and unknown/not assessed (n=369). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We studied monthly trends in proportions of COVID-19 associated IHCAs, causes of IHCA in relation to COVID-19 status, clinical conditions preceding the cardiac arrest and predictors of survival. RESULTS: The rate of COVID-19+ patients suffering an IHCA increased to 23% during the first pandemic wave (April), then abated to 3% in July, and then increased to 19% during the second wave (December). Among COVID-19+ cases, 43% had respiratory insufficiency or infection as the underlying cause of the cardiac arrest, compared with 18% among COVID-19- cases. The most common clinical sign preceding cardiac arrest was hypoxia (57%) among COVID-19+ cases. OR for 30-day survival for COVID-19+ cases was 0.50 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.76), compared with COVID-19- cases. CONCLUSION: During pandemic peaks, up to one-fourth of all IHCAs are complicated by COVID-19, and these patients have halved chance of survival, with women displaying the worst outcomes.

Cardiac arrest in COVID-19: characteristics and outcomes of in- and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. A report from the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

AIM: To study the characteristics and outcome among cardiac arrest cases with COVID-19 and differences between the pre-pandemic and the pandemic period in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). METHOD AND RESULTS: We included all patients reported to the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation from 1 January to 20 July 2020. We defined 16 March 2020 as the start of the pandemic. We assessed overall and 30-day mortality using Cox regression and logistic regression, respectively. We studied 1946 cases of OHCA and 1080 cases of IHCA during the entire period. During the pandemic, 88 (10.0%) of OHCAs and 72 (16.1%) of IHCAs had ongoing COVID-19. With regards to OHCA during the pandemic, the odds ratio for 30-day mortality in COVID-19-positive cases, compared with COVID-19-negative cases, was 3.40 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-11.64]; the corresponding hazard ratio was 1.45 (95% CI 1.13-1.85). Adjusted 30-day survival was 4.7% for patients with COVID-19, 9.8% for patients without COVID-19, and 7.6% in the pre-pandemic period. With regards to IHCA during the pandemic, the odds ratio for COVID-19-positive cases, compared with COVID-19-negative cases, was 2.27 (95% CI 1.27-4.24); the corresponding hazard ratio was 1.48 (95% CI 1.09-2.01). Adjusted 30-day survival was 23.1% in COVID-19-positive cases, 39.5% in patients without COVID-19, and 36.4% in the pre-pandemic period. CONCLUSION: During the pandemic phase, COVID-19 was involved in at least 10% of all OHCAs and 16% of IHCAs, and, among COVID-19 cases, 30-day mortality was increased 3.4-fold in OHCA and 2.3-fold in IHCA.

A novel mouse model of radiation-induced cancer survivorship diseases of the gut.

A deeper understanding of the radiation-induced pathophysiological processes that develop in the gut is imperative to prevent, alleviate, or eliminate cancer survivorship diseases after radiotherapy to the pelvic area. Most rodent models of high-dose gastrointestinal radiation injury are limited by high mortality. We therefore established a model that allows for the delivering of radiation in fractions at high doses while maintaining long-term survival. Adult male C57/BL6 mice were exposed to small-field irradiation, restricted to 1.5 cm of the colorectum using a linear accelerator. Each mouse received 6 or 8 Gy, two times daily in 12-h intervals in two, three, or four fractions. Acute cell death was examined at 4.5 h postirradiation and histological changes at 6 wk postirradiation. Another group was given four fractions of 8 Gy and followed over time for development of visible symptoms. Irradiation caused immediate cell death, mainly limited to the colorectum. At 6 wk postirradiation, several crypts displayed signs of radiation-induced degeneration. The degenerating crypts were seen alongside crypts that appeared perfectly healthy. Crypt survival was reduced after the fourth fraction regardless of dose, whereas the number of macrophages increased. Angiogenesis was induced, likely as a compensatory mechanism for hypoxia. Four months postirradiation, mice began to show radiation-induced symptoms, and histological examination revealed an extensive crypt loss and fibrosis. Our model is uniquely suitable for studying the long-term trajectory and underlying mechanisms of radiation-induced gastrointestinal injury.NEW & NOTEWORTHY A novel mouse model for studying the long-term trajectory of radiation-induced gut injury. The method allows for the use of high doses and multiple fractions, with minor impact on animal health for at least 3 mo. Crypt loss and a slow progression of fibrosis is observed. Crypt degeneration is a process restricted to isolated crypts. Crypt degeneration is presented as a convenient proxy endpoint for long-term radiation-induced gut injury.