Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I-Calculation methods.

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTIproposed/IESTIcurrent and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food - pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.

Risk assessment of the cumulative acute exposure of Hungarian population to organophosphorus pesticide residues with regard to consumers of plant based foods.

Based on the Hungarian pesticide residues monitoring data of the last five years and the consumption data collected within a 3-day dietary record survey in 2009 (more than 2 million pesticide residue results and almost 5000, 0-101-year-old consumers 3 non-consecutive-day personal fruit and vegetable consumption data), the cumulative acute exposure of organophosphorus pesticide residues was evaluated. The relative potency factor approach was applied, with acephate chosen as index compound. According to our conservative calculation method, applying the measured residues only, the 99.95% of the 99th percentiles of calculated daily intakes was at or below 87 µg/kgbwday, indicating that the cumulative acute exposure of the whole Hungarian population (including all age classes) to organophosphorus compounds was not a health concern.

Estimation of sampling uncertainty of pesticide residues based on supervised residue trial data.

Typical sampling uncertainties were calculated as the average of relative standard deviations (CV) of residues measured in individual crops tested in supervised residue trials and from their pooled variance for crop groups. The relative confidence intervals of the sampling uncertainty for different crops were estimated from the random duplicate composite samples generated with computer modeling from residues in 182 independent primary sample sets, each consisting of 100-320 residue data. The relative 95% confidence intervals were found to be independent from the CV of primary residue data populations; therefore, the calculated values are generally applicable. In view of the potentially serious consequences of underestimated sampling uncertainties, their upper confidence limits are recommended for practical use to verify the compliance of products and for planning statistically based sampling programs. Sampling uncertainties are reported for 24 crop groups and 106 individual crops.

Analysis of industry-generated data. Part 2: Risk-based sampling plan for efficient self-control of aflatoxin M1 contamination in raw milk.

Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) contamination in 21,969 milk samples taken in Italy during 2005-08 and 2010 provided the basis for designing an early warning self-control plan. Additionally, 4148 AFM1 data points from the mycotoxin crisis (2003-04) represented the worst case. No parametric function provided a good fit for the skewed and scattered AFM1 concentrations. The acceptable reference values, reflecting the combined uncertainty of AFM1 measured in consignments consisting of milk from one to six farms, ranged from 40 to 16.7 ng kg(-1), respectively. Asymmetric control charts with these reference values, 40 and 50 ng kg(-1) warning and action limits are recommended to assess immediately the distribution of AFM1 concentration in incoming consignments. The moving window method, presented as a worked example including 5 days with five samples/day, enabled verification of compliance of production with the legal limit in 98% of the consignments at a 94% probability level. The sampling plan developed assumes consecutive analyses of samples taken from individual farms, which makes early detection of contamination possible and also immediate corrective actions if the AFM1 concentration in a consignment exceeds the reference value. In the latter case different control plans with increased sampling frequency should be applied depending on the level and frequency of contamination. As aflatoxin B1 increases in feed at about the same time, therefore a coordinated sampling programme performed by the milk processing plants operating in a confined geographic area is more effective and economical then the individual ones. The applicability of the sample size calculation based on binomial theorem and the fast response rate resulting from the recommended sampling plan were verified by taking 1000-10,000 random samples with replacement from the experimental databases representing the normal, moderately and highly contaminated periods. The efficiency of the control plan could be substantially enhanced if the dairy farms used feed with a tolerable level of AFB1.

Nature of the field-to-field distribution of pesticide residues.

The supervised trial datasets (1950), consisting of a minimum of five residue values and selected by the experts of FAO/WHO Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues for recommending maximum residue levels between 1997 and 2011, were evaluated to obtain information on the typical spread of residue values in individual datasets. The typical relative standard deviation, CV, of field-to-field variation of pesticide residues was about 80%. The spread of residues in datasets is independent from the chemical structure of pesticides, residue level, pre-harvest interval and number of values in the datasets. The CV ranges within the Codex commodity groups and between groups overlapped and their difference were not statistically significant. The number of residues below the limit of quantification (LOQ) affects the CV at various extents depending on the ratio of LOQ/R mean. The combined uncertainty of the highest residue in a dataset significantly affects the CV of the dataset. The lowest and intermediate ones have less influence. The residues in different fields receiving the same treatment vary within large range: 55%, 72%, 78%, 86% and 89% of the 25,766 residues values were, respectively, within 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 times the median value of the corresponding dataset.

The active component in the flax-retting system of the zygomycete Rhizopus oryzae sb is a family 28 polygalacturonase.

The zygomycete Rhizopus oryzae sb is a very efficient organism for retting of flax, the initial microbiological step in the process of making linen. An extracellular polygalacturonase, when isolated could perform retting, and therefore probably is the key component in the retting system of R. oryzae. This was purified and characterized. The purified enzyme has a molecular mass of 37,436 Da from mass spectrometric determination, an isoelectric point of 8.4, and has non-methylated polygalacturonic acid as its preferred substrate. Peptide sequences indicate that the enzyme belongs to family 28, in similarity with other polygalacturonases (EC. 3.2.1.15). It contains, however an N-terminal sequence absent in other fungal pectinases, but present in an enzyme from the phytopathogenic bacterium Ralstonia solanacearum. The biochemical background for the superior retting efficiency of R. oryzae sb is discussed.