Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

Current status of the environmental monitoring database on the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

An enormous amount of environmental monitoring data has been acquired by various organisations for the evaluation and implementation of countermeasures to mitigate the effects of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. However, it is difficult to collate, compare, and analyse this data because it was published in different formats at different sites according to the respective objectives of the publishing organisations. Moreover, these organisations have been accumulating data in large volumes for over nine years after the accident. We established procedures to collect this data, convert them into a unified format, classify them according to categories, and make the data accessible on a web-based database system. The database contains environmental monitoring data on air dose rates, ground deposition densities, and concentrations in various environmental samples such as soil, water, and food. This data is being provided not only in numerical format for quantitative analysis but also as distribution maps and time-series graphs for visual understanding. The database system enabled us to spatially and temporally compare large volumes of monitoring data. By using the database functions, characteristics of some representative data in the database was clarified.

Optimizing long-term monitoring of radiation air-dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events. In this work, we have developed a methodology for optimizing the monitoring locations of radiation air dose-rate monitoring. Our approach consists of three steps in order to determine monitoring locations in a systematic manner: (1) prioritizing the critical locations, such as schools or regulatory requirement locations, (2) diversifying locations that cover the key environmental controls that are known to influence contaminant mobility and distributions, and (3) capturing the heterogeneity of radiation air-dose rates across the domain. For the second step, we use a Gaussian mixture model to identify the representative locations among multiple environmental variables, such as elevation and land-cover types. For the third step, we use a Gaussian process model to capture and estimate the heterogeneity of air-dose rates across the domain. Employing an integrated dose-rate map derived from Bayesian geostatistical methods as a reference map, we distribute the monitoring locations in such a way as to capture the heterogeneity of the reference map. Our results have shown that this approach allows us to select monitoring locations in a systematic manner such that the heterogeneity of air dose rates is captured by the minimal number of monitoring locations.

Summary of temporal changes in air dose rates and radionuclide deposition densities in the 80 km zone over five years after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident.

We summarized temporal changes in air dose rates and radionuclide deposition densities over five years in the 80 km zone based on large-scale environmental monitoring data obtained continuously after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, including those already reported in the present and previous special issues. After the accident, multiple radionuclides deposited on the ground were detected over a wide area; radiocesium was found to be predominantly important from the viewpoint of long-term exposure. The relatively short physical half-life of 134Cs (2.06 y) has led to considerable reductions in air dose rates. The reduction in air dose rates owing to the radioactive decay of radiocesium was more than 60% over five years. Furthermore, the air dose rates in environments associated with human lives decreased at a considerably faster rate than expected for radioactive decay. The average air dose rate originating from the radiocesium deposited in the 80 km zone was lower than that predicted from radioactive decay by a factor of 2-3 at five years after the accident. Vertical penetration of radiocesium into the ground contributed greatly to the reduction in air dose rate because of an increase in the shielding of gamma rays; the estimated average reduction in air dose rate was approximately 25% with penetration compared to that without penetration. The average air dose rate measured in undisturbed fields in the 80 km zone was estimated to be reduced owing to decontamination by approximately 20% compared to that without decontamination. The average deposition density of radiocesium in undisturbed fields has decreased owing to radioactive decay, indicating that the migration of radiocesium in the horizontal direction has generally been slow. Nevertheless, in human living environments, horizontal radiocesium movement is considered to contribute significantly to the reduction in air dose rate. The contribution of horizontal radiocesium movement to the decrease in air dose rate was estimated to vary by up to 30% on average. Massive amounts of environmental data were used in extended analyses, such as the development of a predictive model or integrated air dose rate maps according to different measurement results, which facilitated clearer characterization of the contamination conditions. Ecological half-lives were evaluated in several studies by using a bi-exponential model. Short-term ecological half-lives were shorter than one year in most cases, while long-term ecological half-lives were different across the studies. Even though the general tendency of decrease in air dose rates and deposition densities in the 80 km zone were elucidated as summarized above, their trend was found to vary significantly according to location. Therefore, site-specific analysis is an important task in the future.

The air dose rate around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant: its spatial characteristics and temporal changes until December 2012.

Distribution maps of air dose rates around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant were constructed using the results of measurement obtained from approximately 6500 locations (at most) per measurement period. The measurements were conducted 1 m above the ground using survey meters in flat and spatially open locations. Spatial distribution and temporal change of the air dose rate in the area were revealed by examining the resultant distribution maps. The observed reduction rate of the air dose rate over the 18 months between June 2011 and December 2012 was greater than that calculated from radioactive decay of radiocesium by 10% in relative percentage except decontaminated sites. This 10% difference in the reduction of the air dose rate can be explained by the mobility of radiocesium in the depth direction. In the region where the air dose rate was lower than 0.25 µSv h(-1) on June 2011, the reduction of the air dose rate was observed to be smaller than that of the other dose rate regions, and it was in fact smaller than the reduction rate caused by radioactive decay alone. In contrast, the reduction rate was larger in regions with higher air dose rates. In flat and spatially open locations, no significant difference in the reduction tendency of air dose rates was observed among different land use classifications (rice fields, farmland, forests, and building sites).

Detailed deposition density maps constructed by large-scale soil sampling for gamma-ray emitting radioactive nuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

Soil deposition density maps of gamma-ray emitting radioactive nuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident were constructed on the basis of results from large-scale soil sampling. In total 10,915 soil samples were collected at 2168 locations. Gamma rays emitted from the samples were measured by Ge detectors and analyzed using a reliable unified method. The determined radioactivity was corrected to that of June 14, 2011 by considering the intrinsic decay constant of each nuclide. Finally the deposition maps were created for (134)Cs, (137)Cs, (131)I, (129m)Te and (110m)Ag. The radioactivity ratio of (134)Cs-(137)Cs was almost constant at 0.91 regardless of the locations of soil sampling. The radioactivity ratios of (131)I and (129m)Te-(137)Cs were relatively high in the regions south of the Fukushima NPP site. Effective doses for 50 y after the accident were evaluated for external and inhalation exposures due to the observed radioactive nuclides. The radiation doses from radioactive cesium were found to be much higher than those from the other radioactive nuclides.

Spatial distributions of radionuclides deposited onto ground soil around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant and their temporal change until December 2012.

Spatial distributions and temporal changes of radioactive fallout released by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident have been investigated by two campaigns with three measurement schedules. The inventories (activities per unit area) of the radionuclides deposited onto ground soil were measured using portable gamma-ray spectrometers at nearly 1000 locations (at most) per measurement campaign. Distribution maps of the inventories of (134)Cs, (137)Cs, and (110m)Ag as of March, September, and December 2012 were constructed. No apparent temporal change of the radionuclide inventories was observed from March to December 2012. Weathering effects (e.g., horizontal mobility) were not noticeable during this period. Spatial dependence in the ratios of (134)Cs/(137)Cs and (110m)Ag/(137)Cs were observed in the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The detailed maps of (134)Cs and (137)Cs as of September 2012 and December 2012 were constructed using the relationship between the air dose rate and the inventory.