Drivers of the progress achieved by Peru in reducing childhood diarrhoea mortality: a country case study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially in Peru in recent decades. We documented trends in childhood diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015, along with trends in coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions and risk factors, to identify the main drivers of mortality reduction. METHODS: We conducted desk reviews on social determinants, policies and programmes, and diarrhoea-related interventions implemented during the study period. We reviewed different datasets on child mortality, and on coverage of diarrhoea-related interventions. We received input from individuals familiar with implementation of diarrhoea-related policies and programmes. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to help explain the reasons for the decline in diarrhoea mortality from 1980 to 2015 and to predict additional reduction with further scale up of diarrhoea-related interventions by 2030. RESULTS: In Peru under-five diarrhoea mortality declined from 23.3 in 1980 to 0.8 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. The percentage of under-five diarrhoea deaths as related to total under-five deaths was reduced from 17.8% in 1980 to 4.9% in 2015. Gross domestic product increased and poverty declined from 1990 to 2015. Access to improved water increased from 56% in 1986 to 79.3% in 2015. Oral rehydrating salts (ORS) use during an episode of diarrhoea increased from 3.6% in 1986 to 32% in 2015. Vertical programmes focused on diarrhoea management with ORS were implemented successfully in the 1980s and 1990s, and were replaced by integrated crosscutting interventions since the early 2000s. LiST analyses showed that about half (53.9%) of the reduction in diarrhoea mortality could be attributed to improved water, sanitation and hygiene, 25.0% to direct diarrhoea interventions and 21.1% to nutrition. The remaining mortality could be reduced by three-quarters by 2030 with improved diarrhoea treatment and further with enhanced breastfeeding practices and reduction in stunting. LiST does not take into account the role of social determinants. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction of diarrhoeal under-five mortality in Peru can be explained by a combination of factors, including improvement of social determinants, child nutrition, diarrhoea treatment with ORS and prevention with rotavirus vaccine and increased access to water and sanitation. The already low rate of diarrhoea mortality could be further reduced by a number of interventions, especially additional use of ORS and zinc for diarrhoea treatment. Peru is a remarkable example of a country that was able to reduce childhood diarrhoea mortality by implementing interventions through vertical programmes initially, and afterwards through implementation of integrated multisectoral packages targeting prevalent illnesses and multi-causal problems like stunting.

Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions.

BACKGROUND: Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. METHODS: We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mortality impact of eliminating inequalities in coverage distribution between wealth quintiles and urban-rural residence. RESULTS: Our analyses quantified the remaining missed opportunities in Peru, where prioritizing scale-up of facility-based case management for all small and sick babies will be most effective in mortality reduction, compared to other evidenced-based interventions that prevent maternal and child deaths. Eliminating coverage disparities between the poorest quintiles and the richest will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 22.0 and 40.6 %, while eliminating coverage disparities between those living in rural and urban areas will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 29.3 and 45.2 %. This projected neonatal mortality reduction achieved by eliminating coverage disparities is almost comparable to that already achieved by Peru over the past decade. CONCLUSIONS: Although Peru has made great strides in improving child survival, further improvement in child health, especially in newborn health can be achieved if there is universal and equitable coverage of proven, quality health facility-based interventions. The magnitude of reduction in mortality will be similar to what has been achieved in the past decade. Strengthening health system to identify, understand, and direct resources to the poor and rural areas will ensure that Peru achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Child health and nutrition in Peru within an antipoverty political agenda: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

BACKGROUND: Peru is an upper-middle-income country with wide social and regional disparities. In recent years, sustained multisectoral antipoverty programmes involving governments, political parties, and civil society have included explicit health and nutrition goals and spending increased sharply. We did a country case study with the aim of documenting Peru's progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health from 2000-13, and explored the potential determinants. METHODS: We examined the outcomes of health interventions coverage, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, and prevalence of under-5 stunting. We obtained data from interviews with key informants, a literature review of published and unpublished data, national censuses, and governmental reports. We obtained information on social determinants of health, including economic growth, poverty, unmet basic needs, urbanisation, women's education, water supply, fertility rates, and child nutrition from the annual national households surveys and the Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys. We obtained national mortality data from the Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, and calculated subnational rates from 11 surveys. Analyses were stratified by region, wealth quintiles, and urban or rural residence. We calculated coverage indicators for the years 2000-13, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the effect of changes in intervention coverage and in nutritional status on mortality. FINDINGS: From 2000 to 2013, under-5 mortality fell by 58% from 39·8 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 16·7. LiST, which was used to predict the decline in mortality arising from changes in fertility rates, water and sanitation, undernutrition, and coverage of indicators of reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health predicted that the under-5 mortality rate would fall from 39·8 to 28·4 per 1000 livebirths, accounting for 49·2% of the reported reduction. Neonatal mortality fell by 51% from 16·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 8·0. Stunting prevalence remained stable at around 30% until 2007, decreasing to 17·5% by 2013, and the composite coverage index for essential health interventions increased from 75·1% to 82·6%, with faster increases among the poor, in rural areas, and in the Andean region. Socioeconomic, urban-rural, and regional inequalities in coverage, mortality, and stunting were substantially reduced. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 47·8% to 23·9%, women with fewer than 4 years of schooling reduced from 11·5% to 6·9%, urbanisation increased from 68·1% to 75·6%, and the total fertility rate decreased from 3·0 children per woman to 2·4. We interviewed 175 key informants and they raised the following issues: economic growth, improvement of social determinants, civil society empowerment and advocacy, out-of-health and within-health-sector changes, and sustained implementation of evidence-based, pro-poor reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health interventions. INTERPRETATION: Peru has made substantial progress in reducing neonatal and under-5 mortality, and child stunting. This country is a good example of how a combination of political will, economic growth, broad societal participation, strategies focused on poor people, and increased spending in health and related sectors can achieve significant progress in reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health. The remaining challenges include continuing to address inequalities in wealth distribution, poverty, and access to basic services, especially in the Amazon and Andean rural areas. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.