Potential predictability of the Ethiopian summer rains: Understanding local variations and their implications for water management decisions.

Understanding the influence of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variability on rainfall over Ethiopia has huge potential to improve seasonal forecasting and inform crucial water management decisions at local levels, where data is available at appropriate scales for decision makers. In this study, drivers of Ethiopia's main rainy season, July-September (JAS), are investigated using correlation analysis with sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis showed local spatial variations in the drivers of JAS rainfall. Moreover, the analysis revealed strong correlation between March to May (MAM) SST and JAS rainfall in particular regions. In addition to the influence of SSTs, we highlighted one of the mechanisms explaining the regional pattern of SST influence on Ethiopian rainfall, the East African Low-Level Jet. Moreover, examining the occurrence of large-scale phenomena provided additional information, with very strong ENSO and positive IOD events associated with drier conditions in most part of Ethiopia. A sub-national analysis, focused at a scale relevant for water managers, on the Awash basin, highlighted two distinct climate zones with different relationships to SSTs. June was not included as part of the rainy season as in some areas June is a hot, dry month between rainy seasons and in others it can be used to update sub-seasonal forecasts with lead time of one month for JAS rainfall. This highlights the importance of understanding locally relevant climate systems and ensuing sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts are done at the appropriate scale for water management in the complex topography and climatology of Ethiopia.

The relationship of prenatal antibiotic exposure and infant antibiotic administration with childhood allergies: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Early antibiotic exposure may be contributing to the onset of childhood allergies. The main objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review on the relationship between early life antibiotic exposure and childhood asthma, eczema and hay fever. METHODS: Pubmed and Embase were searched for studies published between 01-01-2008 and 01-08-2018, examining the effects of (1) prenatal antibiotic exposure and (2) infant antibiotic administration (during the first 2 years of life) on childhood asthma, eczema and hay fever from 0 to 18 years of age. These publications were assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and analysed narratively. RESULTS: (1) Prenatal antibiotics: Asthma (12 studies): The majority of studies (9/12) reported significant relationships (range OR 1.13 (1.02-1.24) to OR 3.19 (1.52-6.67)). Three studies reported inconsistent findings. Eczema (3 studies): An overall significant effect was reported in one study and in two other studies only when prenatal antibiotic exposure was prolonged. (2) Infant antibiotics: Asthma (27 studies): 17/27 studies reported overall significant findings (range HR 1.12 (1.08-1.16) to OR 3.21 (1.89-5.45)). Dose-response effects and stronger effects with broad-spectrum antibiotic were often reported. 10/27 studies reported inconsistent findings depending on certain conditions and types of analyses. Of 19 studies addressing reverse causation or confounding by indication at least somewhat, 11 reported overall significant effects. Eczema (15 studies): 6/15 studies reported overall significant effects; 9 studies had either insignificant or inconsistent findings. Hay fever (9 studies): 6/9 reported significant effects, and the other three insignificant or inconsistent findings. General: Multiple and broad-spectrum antibiotics were more strongly associated with allergies. The majority of studies scored a 6 or 7 out of 9 based on the NOS, indicating they generally had a medium risk of bias. Although most studies showed significant findings between early antibiotic exposure and asthma, the actual effects are still unclear as intrapartum antibiotic administration, familial factors and confounding by maternal and child infections were often not addressed. CONCLUSIONS: This review points to a moderate amount of evidence for a relationship between early life antibiotics (especially prenatal) and childhood asthma, some evidence for a relationship with hay fever and less convincing evidence for a relationship with eczema. More studies are still needed addressing intra-partum antibiotics, familial factors, and possible confounding by maternal and childhood infections. Children exposed to multiple, broad-spectrum antibiotics early in life appear to have a greater risk of allergies, especially asthma; these effects should be investigated further.

The relationship of prenatal and infant antibiotic exposure with childhood overweight and obesity: a systematic review.

This study aimed to assess the evidence regarding the relationship between early-life antibiotic exposure and childhood overweight/obesity by reviewing observational studies on prenatal antibiotic exposure and systematic reviews on infant antibiotic exposure. A search in Pubmed, Embase and Google Scholar covering the period 1st January till 1st December 2018 led to the identification of five studies on prenatal antibiotic exposure and four systematic reviews on infant antibiotic exposure. Positive trends between prenatal antibiotic exposure and overweight/obesity were reported in all studies; two studies reported a significant overall relationship and the other three reported significant relationships under certain conditions. Effect sizes ranged from odds ratio (OR): 1.04 (0.62-1.74) to relative risk (RR): 1.77 (1.25-2.51). Regarding infant antibiotics, one review concluded there was substantial evidence that infant antibiotic exposure increased the risk of childhood overweight/obesity [pooled effect sizes: RR: 1.21 (1.09-1.33) for overweight and RR: 1.18 (1.12-1.25) for obesity]. Two reviews concluded there was some evidence for a relationship [pooled effect sizes: OR: 1.05 (1.00-1.11) and OR: 1.11 (1.02-1.20)]. The fourth review concluded the studies were too heterogeneous for meta-analyses and the evidence regarding the relationship between infant antibiotic exposure and childhood overweight/obesity was inconclusive. More well-designed studies are needed that include data on intra-partum antibiotics and address important potential confounders (including maternal and childhood infections). This review points to some evidence of a relationship between early-life antibiotic exposure and childhood overweight/obesity; this is especially evident in certain children (i.e. exposed to multiple and broad-spectrum antibiotics, earlier postnatal exposure and male gender) and merits further research.