'Real-world' observational studies in arrhythmia research: data sources, methodology, and interpretation. A position document from European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), endorsed by Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), Asia-Pacific HRS (APHRS), and Latin America HRS (LAHRS)

The field of observational studies or "real world studies" is in rapid development with many new techniques introduced and increased understanding of traditional methods. For this reason, the current paper provides an overview of current methods with focus on new techniques. Some highlights can be emphasized: We provide an overview of sources of data for observational studies. There is an overview of sources of bias and confounding. Next There is an overview of causal inference techniques that are increasingly used. The most commonly used techniques for statistical modelling are reviewed with focus on the important distinction of risk versus prediction. The final section provides examples of common problems with reporting observational data.

Safety of proton pump inhibitors based on a large, multi-year, randomized trial of patients receiving rivaroxaban or aspirin

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are effective at treating acid-related disorders. These drugs are well tolerated in the short term, but long-term treatment was associated with adverse events in observational studies. We aimed to confirm these findings in an adequately powered randomized trial. METHODS: We performed a 3 x 2 partial factorial double-blind trial of 17,598 participants with stable cardiovascular disease and peripheral artery disease randomly assigned to groups given pantoprazole (40 mg daily, n = 8791) or placebo (n = 8807). Participants were also randomly assigned to groups that received rivaroxaban (2.5 mg twice daily) with aspirin (100 mg once daily), rivaroxaban (5mg twice daily), or aspirin (100 mg) alone. We collected data on development of pneumonia, Clostridium difficile infection, other enteric infections, fractures, gastric atrophy, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive lung disease, dementia, cardiovascular disease, cancer, hospitalizations, and all-cause mortality every 6 months. Patients were followed up for a median of 3.01 years, with 53,152 patient-years of follow-up. RESULTS: There was no statistically significant difference between the pantoprazole and placebo groups in safety events except for enteric infections (1.4% vs 1.0% in the placebo group; odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.75). For all other safety outcomes, proportions were similar between groups except for C difficile infection, which was approximately twice as common in the pantoprazole vs the placebo group, although there were only 13 events, so this difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In a large placebo-controlled randomized trial, we found that pantoprazole is not associated with any adverse event when used for 3 years, with the possible exception of an increased risk of enteric infections. (AU)

Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia in Children Aged 5-18 Years-Risk Factors in the New Millennium.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between comorbidities and Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia in children aged 5-18 years, thus, in children with a matured immune system. Further, we aimed to identify presumably healthy children acquiring bacteremia. STUDY DESIGN: By cross-linking nationwide registries, we consecutively included all children born from 1995 onward at their 5-year birthday or date of immigration during 2000-2015. We examined incidence rate ratios (IRR) between preselected exposures and microbiologically verified S aureus bacteremia (reference = children without exposure) using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We followed 1 109 169 children in 2000-2015 during which 307 children (incidence rate: 3.7 per 100 000 person-years) acquired S aureus bacteremia (methicillin-resistant S aureus = 8; 2.6%). Children without known comorbidities or recent contact with the healthcare system comprised 37.1% of infected children. The highest IRRs were observed in children undergoing dialysis or plasmapheresis (IRR = 367.2 [95% CI) = 188.5-715.3]), children with organ transplantation (IRR = 149.5 [95% CI = 73.9-302.2]), and children with cancer (IRR = 102.9 [95% CI = 74.4-142.2]). Positive associations also were observed in children with chromosomal anomalies (IRR = 7.16 [95% CI = 2.96-17.34]), atopic dermatitis (IRR = 4.89 [95% CI = 3.11-7.69]), congenital heart disease (IRR = 3.14 [95% CI = 1.92-5.11]), and in children undergoing surgery (IRR = 3.34 [95% CI = 2.59-4.28]). Neither premature birth nor parental socioeconomic status was associated with increased disease rates. CONCLUSIONS: S aureus bacteremia is uncommon in children between 5 and 18 years of age. Risk factors known from the adult population, such as dialysis, plasmapheresis, organ transplantation, and cancer, were associated with the highest relative rates. However, prematurity and parental socioeconomic status were not associated with increased rates. Approximately one-third of infected children were presumably healthy.

Rivaroxaban with or without aspirin in patients with stable coronary artery disease: an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and is a consequence of acute thrombotic events involving activation of platelets and coagulation proteins. Factor Xa inhibitors and aspirin each reduce thrombotic events but have not yet been tested in combination or against each other in patients with stable coronary artery disease. METHODS: In this multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, outpatient trial, patients with stable coronary artery disease or peripheral artery disease were recruited at 602 hospitals, clinics, or community centres in 33 countries. This paper reports on patients with coronary artery disease. Eligible patients with coronary artery disease had to have had a myocardial infarction in the past 20 years, multi-vessel coronary artery disease, history of stable or unstable angina, previous multi-vessel percutaneous coronary intervention, or previous multi-vessel coronary artery bypass graft surgery. After a 30-day run in period, patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive rivaroxaban (2·5 mg orally twice a day) plus aspirin (100 mg once a day), rivaroxaban alone (5 mg orally twice a day), or aspirin alone (100 mg orally once a day). Randomisation was computer generated. Each treatment group was double dummy, and the patients, investigators, and central study staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome of the COMPASS trial was the occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01776424, and is closed to new participants...

Risk stratification by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring across JNC classes of conventional blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines propose classification of conventional blood pressure (CBP) into normotension (<120/<80 mm Hg), prehypertension (120-139/80-89 mm Hg), and hypertension (≥140/≥90 mm Hg). METHODS: To assess the potential differential contribution of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) in predicting risk across CBP strata, we analyzed outcomes in 7,826 untreated people recruited from 11 populations. RESULTS: During an 11.3-year period, 809 participants died (276 cardiovascular deaths) and 639, 383, and 225 experienced a cardiovascular, cardiac, or cerebrovascular event. Compared with normotension (n = 2,639), prehypertension (n = 3,076) carried higher risk (P ≤ 0.015) of cardiovascular (+41%) and cerebrovascular (+92%) endpoints; compared with hypertension (n = 2,111) prehypertension entailed lower risk (P ≤ 0.005) of total mortality (-14%) and cardiovascular mortality (-29%) and of cardiovascular (-34%), cardiac (-33%), or cerebrovascular (-47%) events. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke associated with 24-hour and daytime diastolic ABP (+5 mm Hg) were higher (P ≤ 0.045) in normotension than in prehypertension and hypertension (1.98 vs.1.19 vs.1.28 and 1.73 vs.1.09 vs. 1.24, respectively) with similar trends (0.03 ≤ P ≤ 0.11) for systolic ABP (+10 mm Hg). However, HRs for fatal endpoints and cardiac events associated with ABP did not differ significantly (P ≥ 0.13) across CBP categories. Of normotensive and prehypertensive participants, 7.5% and 29.3% had masked hypertension (daytime ABP ≥135/≥85 mm Hg). Compared with true normotension (P ≤ 0.01), HRs for stroke were 3.02 in normotension and 2.97 in prehypertension associated with masked hypertension with no difference between the latter two conditions (P = 0.93). CONCLUSION: ABP refines risk stratification in normotension and prehypertension mainly by enabling the diagnosis of masked hypertension.

Risk stratification by 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and estimated glomerular filtration rate in 5322 subjects from 11 populations.

No previous study addressed whether in the general population estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula]) adds to the prediction of cardiovascular outcome over and beyond ambulatory blood pressure. We recorded health outcomes in 5322 subjects (median age, 51.8 years; 43.1% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations, who had baseline measurements of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP(24)) and eGFR. We computed hazard ratios using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Median follow-up was 9.3 years. In fully adjusted models, which included both ABP(24) and eGFR, ABP(24) predicted (P≤0.008) both total (513 deaths) and cardiovascular (206) mortality; eGFR only predicted cardiovascular mortality (P=0.012). Furthermore, ABP(24) predicted (P≤0.0056) fatal combined with nonfatal events as a result of all cardiovascular causes (555 events), cardiac disease (335 events), or stroke (218 events), whereas eGFR only predicted the composite cardiovascular end point and stroke (P≤0.035). The interaction terms between ABP(24) and eGFR were all nonsignificant (P≥0.082). For cardiovascular mortality, the composite cardiovascular end point, and stroke, ABP(24) added 0.35%, 1.17%, and 1.00% to the risk already explained by cohort, sex, age, body mass index, smoking and drinking, previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive drug treatment. Adding eGFR explained an additional 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.14%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses stratified for ethnicity, sex, and the presence of hypertension or chronic kidney disease (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)) were confirmatory. In conclusion, in the general population, eGFR predicts fewer end points than ABP(24). Relative to ABP(24), eGFR is as an additive, not a multiplicative, risk factor and refines risk stratification 2- to 14-fold less.

Determinants of the ambulatory arterial stiffness index in 7604 subjects from 6 populations.

The ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI) is derived from 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure recordings. We investigated whether the goodness-of-fit of the AASI regression line in individual subjects (r(2)) impacts on the association of AASI with established determinants of the relation between diastolic and systolic blood pressures. We constructed the International Database on the Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (7604 participants from 6 countries). AASI was unity minus the regression slope of diastolic on systolic blood pressure in individual 24-hour ambulatory recordings. AASI correlated positively with age and 24-hour mean arterial pressure and negatively with body height and 24-hour heart rate. The single correlation coefficients and the mutually adjusted partial regression coefficients of AASI with age, height, 24-hour mean pressure, and 24-hour heart rate increased from the lowest to the highest quartile of r(2). These findings were consistent in dippers and nondippers (night:day ratio of systolic pressure >or=0.90), women and men, and in Europeans, Asians, and South Americans. The cumulative z score for the association of AASI with these determinants of the relation between diastolic and systolic blood pressures increased curvilinearly with r(2), with most of the improvement in the association occurring above the 20th percentile of r(2) (0.36). In conclusion, a better fit of the AASI regression line enhances the statistical power of analyses involving AASI as marker of arterial stiffness. An r(2) value of 0.36 might be a threshold in sensitivity analyses to improve the stratification of cardiovascular risk.

Prognostic accuracy of day versus night ambulatory blood pressure: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have formally compared the predictive value of the blood pressure at night over and beyond the daytime value. We investigated the prognostic significance of the ambulatory blood pressure during night and day and of the night-to-day blood pressure ratio. METHODS: We did 24-h blood pressure monitoring in 7458 people (mean age 56.8 years [SD 13.9]) enrolled in prospective population studies in Denmark, Belgium, Japan, Sweden, Uruguay, and China. We calculated multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for daytime and night-time blood pressure and the systolic night-to-day ratio, while adjusting for cohort and cardiovascular risk factors. FINDINGS: Median follow-up was 9.6 years (5th to 95th percentile 2.5-13.7). Adjusted for daytime blood pressure, night-time blood pressure predicted total (n=983; p<0.0001), cardiovascular (n=387; p<0.01), and non-cardiovascular (n=560; p<0.001) mortality. Conversely, adjusted for night-time blood pressure, daytime blood pressure predicted only non-cardiovascular mortality (p<0.05), with lower blood pressure levels being associated with increased risk. Both daytime and night-time blood pressure consistently predicted all cardiovascular events (n=943; p<0.05) and stroke (n=420; p<0.01). Adjusted for night-time blood pressure, daytime blood pressure lost prognostic significance only for cardiac events (n=525; p> or =0.07). Adjusted for the 24-h blood pressure, night-to-day ratio predicted mortality, but not fatal combined with non-fatal events. Antihypertensive drug treatment removed the significant association between cardiovascular events and the daytime blood pressure. Participants with systolic night-to-day ratio value of 1 or more were older, at higher risk of death, and died at an older age than those whose night-to-day ratio was normal (> or =0.80 to <0.90). INTERPRETATION: In contrast to commonly held views, daytime blood pressure adjusted for night-time blood pressure predicts fatal combined with non-fatal cardiovascular events, except in treated patients, in whom antihypertensive drugs might reduce blood pressure during the day, but not at night. The increased mortality in patients with higher night-time than daytime blood pressure probably indicates reverse causality. Our findings support recording the ambulatory blood pressure during the whole day.