Regression calibration of self-reported mobile phone use to optimize quantitative risk estimation in the COSMOS study.

The Cohort Study of Mobile Phone Use and Health (COSMOS) has repeatedly collected self-reported and operator-recorded data on mobile phone use. Assessing health effects using self-reported information is prone to measurement error, but operator data were available prospectively for only part of the study population and did not cover past mobile phone use. To optimize the available data and reduce bias, we evaluated different statistical approaches for constructing mobile phone exposure histories within COSMOS. We evaluated and compared the performance of four regression calibration (RC) methods (simple, direct, inverse, and generalized additive model for location, shape, and scale), complete-case (CC) analysis and multiple imputation (MI) in a simulation study with a binary health outcome. We used self-reported and operator-recorded mobile phone call data collected at baseline (2007-2012) from participants in Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK. Parameter estimates obtained using simple, direct, and inverse RC methods were associated with less bias and lower mean squared error than those obtained with CC analysis or MI. We showed that RC methods resulted in more accurate estimation of the relation between mobile phone use and health outcomes, by combining self-reported data with objective operator-recorded data available for a subset of participants.

Headache in the international cohort study of mobile phone use and health (COSMOS) in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Headache is a common condition with a substantial burden of disease worldwide. Concerns have been raised over the potential impact of long-term mobile phone use on headache due to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs). We explored prospectively the association between mobile phone use at baseline (2009-2012) and headache at follow-up (2015-2018) by analysing pooled data consisting of the Dutch and UK cohorts of the Cohort Study of Mobile Phone Use and Health (COSMOS) (N = 78,437). Frequency of headache, migraine, and information on mobile phone use, including use of hands-free devices and frequency of texting, were self-reported. We collected objective operator data to obtain regression calibrated estimates of voice call duration. In the model mutually adjusted for call-time and text messaging, participants in the high category of call-time showed an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.04 (95 % CI: 0.94-1.15), with no clear trend of reporting headache with increasing call-time. However, we found an increased risk of weekly headache (OR = 1.40, 95 % CI: 1.25-1.56) in the high category of text messaging, with a clear increase in reporting headache with increasing texting. Due to the negligible exposure to RF-EMFs from texting, our results suggest that mechanisms other than RF-EMFs are responsible for the increased risk of headache that we found among mobile phone users.

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 µm or less in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM2.5- and ozone-related disease. Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990-2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010-2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones. Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.

Time course of health complaints attributed to RF-EMF exposure and predictors of electromagnetic hypersensitivity over 10 years in a prospective cohort of Dutch adults.

BACKGROUND: Some individuals attribute health complaints to radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) exposure. This condition, known as idiopathic environmental intolerance attributed to RF-EMFs (IEI-RF) or electromagnetic hypersensitivity (EHS), can be disabling for those who are affected. In this study we assessed factors related to developing, maintaining, or discarding IEI-RF over the course of 10 years, and predictors of developing EHS at follow-up using a targeted question without the condition of reporting health complaints attributed to RF-EMF exposure. METHODS: Participants (n = 892, mean age 50 at baseline, 52 % women) from the Dutch Occupational and Environmental Health Cohort Study AMIGO filled in questionnaires in 2011/2012 (T0), 2013 (T1), and 2021 (T4) where information pertaining to perceived RF-EMF exposure and risk, non-specific symptoms, sleep problems, IEI-RF, and EHS was collected. We fitted multi-state Markov models to represent how individuals transitioned between states ("yes", "no") of IEI-RF. RESULTS: At each time point, about 1 % of study participants reported health complaints that they attributed to RF-EMF exposure. While this percentage remained stable, the individuals who reported such complaints changed over time: of nine persons reporting health complaints at T0, only one reported IEI-RF at both T1 and T4, and two newly reported health complaints at T4. Overall, participants had a 95 % chance of transitioning from "yes" to "no" over a time course of 10 years, and a chance of 1 % of transitioning from "no" to "yes". Participants with high perceived RF-EMF exposure and risk had a general tendency to move more frequently between states. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a low prevalence of IEI-RF in our population. Prevalence did not vary strongly over time but there was a strong aspect of change: over 10 years, there was a high probability of not attributing symptoms to RF-EMF exposure anymore. IEI-RF appears to be a more transient condition than previously assumed.

Risk factors for discontinuing oral immunotherapy in children with persistent cow milk allergy.

BACKGROUND: There are no universally accepted criteria for discontinuing milk oral immunotherapy (MOIT) in patients with persistent cow milk allergy (CMA) and little data are available on predictive risk factors for dropping out from oral immunotherapy (OIT), due to allergic reactions or other reasons. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed clinical records of patients with persistent severe CMA undergoing MOIT in a tertiary care center hospital to investigate risk factors associated with discontinuation of OIT. Persistent and severe allergy was defined as the history of systemic reactions and any milk protein-specific IgE level >85 kU/ml. All patients were first admitted for an in-hospital rush phase eventually followed by an at-home dose increase. We evaluated the effect of various factors on two primary outcomes: the highest dose of milk ingested during the in-hospital rush phase and during the home OIT phase. RESULTS: We identified 391 patients, of whom 131 met the inclusion criteria for the retrospective study, 54 females and 77 males. Data of the home OIT phase were available for 104 patients (27%). Regarding the home OIT outcome, an association for having a cow milk avoiding diet was found with reaching a dose below 10 ml during the in-hospital rush phase (relative risks [RR]: 2.33, confidence interval [CI]: 0.85; 6.42), an age above than 10 years from the time of admission (RR: 3.29, CI: 0.85; 12.73), and a higher total number of reactions occurred during the hospitalization (RR: 1.54, CI: 1.02; 2.32), whereas the presence of respiratory reactions with wheezing (RR: 1.93, CI: 0.49; 7.61) and an IM adrenaline use was related to a higher risk of having an OIT still in progress (RR: 5.47, CI: 0.33; 7.73). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of children with persistent CMA undergoing OIT who presented with respiratory reactions with wheezing, the development of anaphylaxis with the need for IM adrenaline, and age above 10 years were predictors of poor long-term outcome.

A Multipollutant Approach to Estimating Causal Effects of Air Pollution Mixtures on Overall Mortality in a Large, Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have confirmed associations between air pollution and overall mortality, but it is unclear to what extent these associations reflect causal relationships. Moreover, few studies to our knowledge have accounted for complex mixtures of air pollution. In this study, we evaluate the causal effects of a mixture of air pollutants on overall mortality in a large, prospective cohort of Dutch individuals. METHODS: We evaluated 86,882 individuals from the LIFEWORK study, assessing overall mortality between 2013 and 2017 through national registry linkage. We predicted outdoor concentration of five air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, PM2.5 absorbance, and oxidative potential) with land-use regression. We used logistic regression and mixture modeling (weighted quantile sum and boosted regression tree models) to identify potential confounders, assess pollutants' relevance in the mixture-outcome association, and investigate interactions and nonlinearities. Based on these results, we built a multivariate generalized propensity score model to estimate the causal effects of pollutant mixtures. RESULTS: Regression model results were influenced by multicollinearity. Weighted quantile sum and boosted regression tree models indicated that all components contributed to a positive linear association with the outcome, with PM2.5 being the most relevant contributor. In the multivariate propensity score model, PM2.5 (OR=1.18, 95% CI: 1.08-1.29) and PM10 (OR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.91-1.14) were associated with increased odds of mortality per interquartile range increase. CONCLUSION: Using novel methods for causal inference and mixture modeling in a large prospective cohort, this study strengthened the causal interpretation of air pollution effects on overall mortality, emphasizing the primary role of PM2.5 within the pollutant mixture.

Machine learning approaches to characterize the obesogenic urban exposome.

BACKGROUND: Characteristics of the urban environment may contain upstream drivers of obesity. However, research is lacking that considers the combination of environmental factors simultaneously. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to explore what environmental factors of the urban exposome are related to body mass index (BMI), and evaluated the consistency of findings across multiple statistical approaches. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using baseline data from 14,829 participants of the Occupational and Environmental Health Cohort study. BMI was obtained from self-reported height and weight. Geocoded exposures linked to individual home addresses (using 6-digit postcode) of 86 environmental factors were estimated, including air pollution, traffic noise, green-space, built environmental and neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics. Exposure-obesity associations were identified using the following approaches: sparse group Partial Least Squares, Bayesian Model Averaging, penalized regression using the Minimax Concave Penalty, Generalized Additive Model-based boosting Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Multiple Linear Regression, as the most conventional approach. The models were adjusted for individual socio-demographic variables. Environmental factors were ranked according to variable importance scores attributed by each approach and median ranks were calculated across these scores to identify the most consistent associations. RESULTS: The most consistent environmental factors associated with BMI were the average neighborhood value of the homes, oxidative potential of particulate matter air pollution (OP), healthy food outlets in the neighborhood (5 km buffer), low-income neighborhoods, and one-person households in the neighborhood. Higher BMI levels were observed in low-income neighborhoods, with lower average house values, lower share of one-person households and smaller amount of healthy food retailers. Higher BMI levels were observed in low-income neighborhoods, with lower average house values, lower share of one-person households, smaller amounts of healthy food retailers and higher OP levels. Across the approaches, we observed consistent patterns of results based on model's capacity to incorporate linear or nonlinear associations. DISCUSSION: The pluralistic analysis on environmental obesogens strengthens the existing evidence on the role of neighborhood socioeconomic position, urbanicity and air pollution.

Incidence, prevalence and disability associated with neurological disorders in Italy between 1990 and 2019: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Neurological conditions are highly prevalent and disabling, in particular in the elderly. The Italian population has witnessed sharp ageing and we can thus expect a rising trend in the incidence, prevalence and disability of these conditions. METHODS: We relied on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to extract Italian data on incidence, prevalence and years lived with a disability (YLDs) referred to a broad set of neurological disorders including, brain and nervous system cancers, stroke, encephalitis, meningitis, tetanus, traumatic brain injury, and spinal cord injury. We assessed changes between 1990 and 2019 in counts and age-standardized rates. RESULTS: The most prevalent conditions were tension-type headache, migraine, and dementias, whereas the most disabling were migraine, dementias and traumatic brain injury. YLDs associated with neurological conditions increased by 22.5%, but decreased by 2.3% in age-standardized rates. The overall increase in prevalence and YLDs counts was stronger for non-communicable diseases with onset in old age compared to young to adult-age onset ones. The same trends were in the opposite direction when age-standardized rates were taken into account. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in YLDs associated with neurological conditions is mostly due to population ageing and growth: nevertheless, lived disability and, as a consequence, impact on health systems has increased. Actions are needed to improve outcome and mitigate disability associated with neurological conditions, spanning among diagnosis, treatment, care pathways and workplace interventions.

Trends in cardiovascular diseases burden and vascular risk factors in Italy: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2017.

AIMS: An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries. METHODS: All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries. RESULTS: Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (-12.7%), mortality rate (-53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (-55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.

National burden of cancer in Italy, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017.

We monitored the burden of cancer in Italy and its trends over the last three decades, providing estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for cancer overall and 30 cancer sites using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. An overview of mortality trends between 1990 and 2017 was also provided. In 2017, there were 254,336 new cancer cases in men and 214,994 in women, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 438 and 330/100,000, respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, incident cancer cases, and, to a lesser extent, ASIRs significantly increased overall and for almost all cancer sites, but ASIRs significantly declined for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. In 2017, there were 101,659 cancer deaths in men (age-standardized death rate, ASDR, 158.5/100,000) and 78,918 in women (ASDR 93.9/100,000). Cancer deaths significantly increased between 1990 and 2017 (+ 18%), but ASDR significantly decreased (- 28%). Deaths significantly increased for many cancer sites, but decreased for stomach, esophageal, laryngeal, Hodgkin lymphoma, and testicular cancer. ASDRs significantly decreased for most neoplasms, with the main exceptions of cancer of the pancreas and uterus, and multiple myeloma. In 2017, cancer caused 3,204,000 DALYs. Between 1990 and 2017, DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates significantly declined (-3.4% and -33%, respectively). Age-standardized mortality rates in Italy showed favorable patterns over the last few decades. However, the absolute number of cancer cases and, to a lower extent, of cancer deaths increased likely due to the progressive ageing of the population, this calling for a continuous effort in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment.