Obesity as a Predictor for Pulmonary Embolism and Performance of the Age-Adjusted D-Dimer Strategy in Obese Patients with Suspected Pulmonary Embolism.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is a risk factor for venous thromboembolism, but studies evaluating its association with pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with suspected PE are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether body mass index (BMI) and obesity (i.e., BMI ≥30 kg/m2) are associated with confirmed PE in patients with suspected PE and to assess the efficiency and safety of the age-adjusted D-dimer strategy in obese patients. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a multinational, prospective study, in which patients with suspected PE were managed according to the age-adjusted D-dimer strategy and followed for 3 months. Outcomes were objectively confirmed PE at initial presentation, and efficiency and failure rate of the diagnostic strategy. Associations between BMI and obesity, and PE were examined using a log-binomial model that was adjusted for clinical probability and hypoxia. RESULTS: We included 1,593 patients (median age: 59 years; 56% women; 22% obese). BMI and obesity were not associated with confirmed PE. The use of the age-adjusted instead of the conventional D-dimer cut-off increased the proportion of obese patients in whom PE was considered ruled out without imaging from 28 to 38%. The 3-month failure rate in obese patients who were left untreated based on a negative age-adjusted D-dimer cut-off test was 0.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.0-2.9%). CONCLUSION: BMI on a continuous linear scale and obesity were not predictors of confirmed PE among patients presenting with a clinical suspicion of PE. The age-adjusted D-dimer strategy appeared safe in ruling out PE in obese patients with suspected PE.

Subsegmental Pulmonary Embolism.

Subsegmental pulmonary embolism (SSPE) is increasingly diagnosed with the growing use and technological advancements of multidetector computed tomography pulmonary angiography. Its diagnosis is challenging, and some presumed SSPE may actually represent imaging artifacts. Indirect evidence and results from small observational studies suggest that SSPE may be more benign than more proximal pulmonary embolism, and may thus not always require treatment. Therefore, guidelines suggest to consider a management strategy without anticoagulation in selected patients with SSPE at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE), in whom proximal deep vein thrombosis is excluded. Recently, a large prospective study among low-risk patients with SSPE who were left untreated showed a higher VTE recurrence risk than initially deemed acceptable by the investigators, and thus was prematurely interrupted after recruitment of 97% of the target population. However, the risk-benefit ratio of anticoagulation for low-risk patients with SSPE remains unclear, and results from randomized trials are needed to answer the question about their optimal management.

Overuse and underuse of thromboprophylaxis in medical inpatients.

Background: Thromboprophylaxis (TPX) prescription is recommended in medical inpatients categorized as high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) by validated risk assessment models (RAMs), but how various RAMs differ in categorizing patients in risk groups, and whether the choice of RAM influences estimates of appropriate TPX use is unknown. Objectives: To determine the proportion of medical inpatients categorized as high or low risk according to validated RAMs, and to investigate the appropriateness of TPX prescription. Methods: This is a prospective cohort study of acutely ill medical inpatients from 3 Swiss university hospitals. Participants were categorized as high or low risk of VTE by validated RAMs (ie, the Padua, the International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism, simplified, and original Geneva scores). We assessed prescription of any TPX at baseline. We considered TPX prescription in high-risk and no TPX prescription in low-risk patients as appropriate. Results: Among 1352 medical inpatients, the proportion categorized as high risk ranged from 29.8% with the International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism score to 66.1% with the original Geneva score. Overall, 24.6% were consistently categorized as high risk, and 26.3% as low risk by all 4 RAMs. Depending on the RAM used, TPX prescription was appropriate in 58.7% to 63.3% of high-risk (ie, 36.7%-41.3% underuse) and 52.4% to 62.8% of low-risk patients (ie, 37.2%-47.6% overuse). Conclusion: The proportion of medical inpatients considered as high or low VTE risk varied widely according to different RAMs. Only half of patients were consistently categorized in the same risk group by all RAMs. While TPX remains underused in high-risk patients, overuse in low-risk patients is even more pronounced.

Prediction of in-hospital bleeding in acutely ill medical patients: External validation of the IMPROVE bleeding risk score.

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis slightly increases bleeding risk. The only risk assessment model to predict bleeding in medical inpatients, the IMPROVE bleeding risk score, has never been validated using prospectively collected outcome data. METHODS: We validated the IMPROVE bleeding risk score in a prospective multicenter cohort of medical inpatients. Primary outcome was in-hospital clinically relevant bleeding (CRB) within 14 days of admission, a secondary outcome was major bleeding (MB). We classified patients according to the score in high or low bleeding risk. We assessed the score's predictive performance by calculating subhazard ratios (sHRs) adjusted for thromboprophylaxis use, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). RESULTS: Of 1155 patients, 8 % were classified as high bleeding risk. CRB and MB within 14 days occurred in 0.94 % and 0.47 % of low-risk and in 5.6 % and 3.4 % of high-risk patients, respectively. Adjusted for thromboprophylaxis, classification in the high-risk group was associated with an increased risk of 14-day CRB (sHR 4.7, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.5-14.5) and MB (sHR 4.9, 95%CI 1.0-23.4). PPV was 5.6 % and 3.4 %, while NPV was 99.1 % and 99.5 % for CRB and MB, respectively. The AUC was 0.68 (95%CI 0.66-0.71) for CRB and 0.73 (95%CI 0.71-0.76) for MB. CONCLUSION: The IMPROVE bleeding risk score showed moderate to good discriminatory power to predict bleeding in medical inpatients. The score may help identify patients at high risk of in-hospital bleeding, in whom careful assessment of the risk-benefit ratio of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis is warranted.

Accuracy and interrater agreement of death event adjudications by physician trainees: validation of the ISTH definition of pulmonary embolism-related death in an autopsy cohort.

BACKGROUND: We previously determined good agreement and high specificity of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) definition of pulmonary embolism (PE)-related death among an expert central adjudication committee (CAC). CACs are often composed of experts in the corresponding research field. Involving physician trainees in CACs would allow investigators to divide the workload and foster trainees' research experience. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of the ISTH definition of PE-related death for PE- versus non-PE-related deaths as confirmed by autopsy and its interrater agreement among physician trainees. METHODS: This retrospective autopsy cohort included all patients with PE-related deaths between January 2010 and July 2019 as well as patients who died in 2018 from a cause other than PE at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital. Based on premortem clinical summaries, two physician trainees independently determined the cause of death using the ISTH definition of PE-related death. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of the ISTH definition to identify autopsy-confirmed PE-related death and its interrater agreement. RESULTS: Overall, 126 death events were adjudicated (median age, 68 years; 60 [48%] women), of which 29 (23%) were due to PE, as confirmed by autopsy. Sensitivity and specificity of the ISTH definition for autopsy-confirmed PE-related death was 48% (95% CI, 29-67) and 100% (95% CI, 96-100), respectively. Interrater reliability for PE-related death was good (percentage agreement, 93%; 95% CI, 87-96, Cohen's Kappa, 0.67; 95% CI, 44-85). CONCLUSION: Our findings are consistent with our previous validation study. They further support the use of the ISTH definition of PE-related death and revealed high agreement between adjudicators with varied experience.

Indefinite Anticoagulant Therapy for First Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism : A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend indefinite anticoagulation for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE: To estimate the benefit-harm tradeoffs of indefinite anticoagulation in patients with a first unprovoked VTE. DESIGN: Markov modeling study. DATA SOURCES: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses for the long-term risks and case-fatality rates of recurrent VTE and major bleeding. Published literature for costs, quality of life, and other clinical events. TARGET POPULATION: Patients with a first unprovoked VTE who have completed 3 to 6 months of initial anticoagulant treatment. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Canadian health care public payer. INTERVENTION: Indefinite anticoagulation with direct oral anticoagulants. OUTCOME MEASURES: Recurrent VTE events, major bleeding events, costs in 2022 Canadian dollars (CAD), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: When compared with discontinuing anticoagulation after initial treatment in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients aged 55 years, indefinite anticoagulation prevented 368 recurrent VTE events, which included 14 fatal pulmonary emboli, but induced an additional 114 major bleeding events, which included 30 intracranial hemorrhages and 11 deaths from bleeding. Indefinite anticoagulation cost CAD $16 014 more per person and did not increase QALYs (-0.075 per person). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Model results were most sensitive to the case-fatality rate of major bleeding and the annual risk for major bleeding during extended anticoagulation. LIMITATION: The model assumed that risks for recurrent VTE and major bleeding measured in clinical trials at 1 year remained constant during extended anticoagulation. CONCLUSION: Clinicians should use shared decision making to incorporate individual patient preferences and values when considering treatment duration for unprovoked VTE. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

The effect of antithrombotic treatment on mortality in patients with acute infection: A meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute infections cause relevant activation of innate immunity and inflammatory cascade. An excessive response against pathogens has been proved to trigger the pathophysiological process of thrombo-inflammation. Nevertheless, an association between the use of antithrombotic agents and the outcome of critically ill patients with infectious diseases is lacking. The aim of this meta-analysis is to determine the impact of antithrombotic treatment on survival of patients with acute infective disease. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Cinahl, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) databases were systematically searched from inception to March 2021. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated any antithrombotic agent in patients with infectious diseases other than COVID-19. Two authors independently performed study selection, data extraction and risk of bias evaluation. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Summary estimates for mortality were calculated using the inverse-variance random-effects method. RESULTS: A total of 16,588 patients participating in 18 RCTs were included, of whom 2141 died. Four trials evaluated therapeutic-dose anticoagulation, 1 trial prophylactic-dose anticoagulation, 4 trials aspirin, and 9 trials other antithrombotic agents. Overall, the use of antithrombotic agents was not associated with all-cause mortality (relative risk 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: The use of antithrombotics is not associated with all-cause mortality in patients with infectious disease other than COVID-19. Complex pathophysiological interplays between inflammatory and thrombotic pathways may explain these results and need further investigation. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42021241182.

Definitions of fatal bleeding in clinical studies evaluating anticoagulant treatment for venous thromboembolism: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Fatal bleeding is a component of the primary safety outcome in most studies evaluating anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE), but a standardized definition for fatal bleeding is lacking. OBJECTIVES: To summarize definitions of fatal bleeding and describe the range of case-fatality rates of major bleeding in VTE studies. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL databases were searched from January 2008 to July 2021 for prospective studies that enrolled patients with VTE and evaluated the efficacy/safety of anticoagulation for VTE treatment or included fatal or major bleeding as primary outcome. Two authors independently performed study selection and data extraction. The primary outcome was the definition of fatal bleeding. The secondary outcome was the case-fatality rate of major bleeding. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Of 4911 records identified, we included 132 articles representing 89 distinct studies. Twenty-seven (20%) articles and 7 of 89 (8%) studies reported a definition of fatal bleeding. Overall, we identified 3 different types of definitions that were either on the basis of a specific time interval between bleeding and death, bleeding location (intracranial) or clinical presentation (hemodynamic deterioration), or mainly relied on the judgment of the adjudication committee to determine the cause of death. The case-fatality rate of major bleeding ranged from 0 to 60% (median, 9.1%; interquartile range, 2.8%-18%). CONCLUSION: Less than 10% of studies assessing anticoagulant treatment for VTE reported a definition for fatal bleeding. The lack of a (standardized) definition for fatal bleeding may lead to inaccurate estimates of the risk of fatal bleeding, particularly when compared across studies.

Adherence to thrombophilia testing guidelines and its influence on anticoagulation therapy: A single-center cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The collected evidence on thrombophilia guidelines is scarce and data about their impact on clinical decisions are unknown. We aimed to investigate the adherence to thrombophilia testing guidelines, its therapeutic impact in patients with guideline-adherent and non-adherent testing and identify the patients' clinical characteristics mostly associated with treatment decisions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a single-center cross-sectional study of patients referred for thrombophilia testing at the outpatient clinic of a tertiary hospital between 01/2010-10/2020. We systematically evaluated the adherence of thrombophilia testing to internal guidelines and the influence of test results on anticoagulation therapy. Using multivariable logistic regression, we evaluated the association between clinical characteristics and influence of thrombophilia tests on anticoagulation therapy in the entire cohort and by indication for referral. RESULTS: Of 3686 included patients, mostly referred for venous thromboembolism (2407, 65 %) or arterial thrombosis (591, 16 %), 3550 patients (96 %) underwent thrombophilia testing. Indication for testing was according to guidelines in 1208 patients (33 %). Test results influenced treatment decisions in 56 of 1102 work-ups (5.1 %) that were adherent to guidelines, and in 237 of 2448 (9.7 %) non-adherent work-ups (absolute difference, 4.3 %; 95 % confidence interval, 2.9-6.3 %). Age < 50 years, female sex, absence of risk factors and co-morbidities, weakly provoked venous thromboembolism and referral indication other than venous thromboembolism were associated with influence on anticoagulation therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to guidelines for thrombophilia testing was poor and did not have an impact on treatment decisions. Refinement of selection criteria is needed to increase the therapeutic impact of thrombophilia testing.

Protocol for a modelling study to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of indefinite anticoagulant therapy for first unprovoked venous thromboembolism.

INTRODUCTION: Deciding whether to stop or extend anticoagulant therapy indefinitely after completing at least 3 months of initial treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains a challenge for clinicians, patients and policy makers. Guidelines suggest an indefinite duration of anticoagulant therapy in these patients, yet its benefits, harms and costs have not been formally assessed. The aim of this proposed modelling study is to assess the differences in clinical benefits, harms and costs of stopping versus continuing anticoagulant therapy indefinitely for a first unprovoked VTE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will develop a probabilistic Markov model, adopting a 1-month cycle length and a lifetime horizon, to estimate life-years, quality-adjusted life-years, costs and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for a simulated population of patients with a first unprovoked VTE who will receive indefinite duration of anticoagulant therapy versus a population who will not receive extended treatment after completing 3 months of initial anticoagulant therapy. The economic evaluation will adopt a third-party payer perspective relating to a Canadian publicly funded healthcare system. Estimates for the probability of relevant clinical events will be informed by systematic reviews and meta-analyses, while costs and utility values will be obtained from published Canadian sources. Stratified analyses based on sex, age and site of initial VTE will also be performed to identify subgroups of patients with a first unprovoked VTE in whom continuing anticoagulant therapy indefinitely might prove to be clinically beneficial and cost-effective over stopping treatment. We will also conduct sensitivity and scenario analyses to assess robustness of study findings to changes in individual or groups of key parameters. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not applicable for this study. The results will be disseminated through presentations at relevant conferences and in a manuscript that will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.

Bleeding Risk in Elderly Patients with Venous Thromboembolism Who Would Have Been Excluded from Anticoagulation Trials.

Older patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) are underrepresented in clinical anticoagulation trials. We examined to which extent elderly patients with VTE would be excluded from such trials and compared the bleeding risk between hypothetically excluded and enrolled patients. We studied 991 patients aged ≥65 years with acute VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort. We identified 12 landmark VTE oral anticoagulation trials from the eighth and updated ninth American College of Chest Physician Guidelines. For each trial, we abstracted the exclusion criteria and calculated the proportion of our study patients who would have been excluded from trial participation. We examined the association between five common exclusion criteria (hemodynamic instability, high bleeding risk, comorbidity, co-medication, and invasive treatments) and major bleeding (MB) within 36 months using competing risk regression, adjusting for age, sex, and periods of anticoagulation. A median of 31% (range: 20-52%) of our patients would have been excluded from participation in the landmark trials. Hemodynamic instability (sub-hazard ratio [SHR]: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.1-4.7), comorbidity (SHR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-2.2), and co-medication (SHR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0-2.3) were associated with MB. Compared to eligible patients, those with ≥2 exclusion criteria had a twofold (SHR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.38-3.39) increased risk of MB. Overall, about one-third of older patients would not be eligible for participation in guideline-defining VTE anticoagulation trials. The bleeding risk increases significantly with the number of exclusion criteria present. Thus, results from such trials may not be generalizable to older, multimorbid, and co-medicated patients.

All-cause mortality after major gastrointestinal bleeding among patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding represents the single most frequent site of anticoagulant-related bleeding. Adverse outcomes after major GI bleeding including mortality are not well characterized and, as a result, may be underappreciated in clinical practice. We aim to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk for 30-day all-cause mortality after major GI bleeding among patients receiving DOACs. METHODS: Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL will be systematically searched to identify randomized controlled trials and prospective and retrospective cohort studies reporting 30-day all-cause mortality in adults with DOAC-related major GI bleeding. At least two investigators will independently perform study selection, risk of bias assessment, and data extraction. The proportion of deaths following a major GI event relative to the number of major GI bleeding events will be calculated for each individual study, and results across studies will be pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. We will assess risk of bias using criteria proposed by the GRADE group for prognostic studies. DISCUSSION: The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis will provide clinicians and patients with estimates of mortality after the most common major bleeding event to support shared decision making about anticoagulation management. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022295815.

Case-fatality rate of major bleeding events in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Assessment of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of major bleeding on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may improve balancing risks and benefits of different durations of DAPT following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Objectives: To determine the CFR of major bleeding in patients on DAPT after PCI and to compare rates among different durations of DAPT. Methods: Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched from inception to August 2021 for randomized trials that reported fatal bleeding among patients who were randomized to ≥1 month of DAPT following PCI. Summary estimates for CFRs of major bleeding were calculated using the random-effects inverse-variance method. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using the I 2 statistic. Results: Of 2777 citations obtained by the search, 15 (48%) of 31 potentially eligible studies were excluded because fatal bleeding was not reported, leaving 16 studies that were included in the analysis. Overall, there were 823 major bleeding events including 91 fatal events in 48,884 patients who were assigned to receive DAPT during study follow-up. The CFR of major bleeding was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1-16.2; I 2 = 50%) in the entire study population, and 13.8% (95% CI, 6.5-27.1; I 2 = 28%), 11.2% (95% CI, 6.7-18.0; I 2 = 0%), and 5.8% (95% CI, 3.0-11.1; I 2 = 0%) in those on short-term (≤6 months; n = 16,553), standard-term (12 months; n = 19,453), and long-term DAPT (>12 months; n = 10,238), respectively. Conclusion: Fatal bleeding is not reported in many studies evaluating DAPT after PCI. The CFR of major bleeding on DAPT is substantial and may be higher in the first 12 months of DAPT than during long-term DAPT.

Case-fatality rate of major bleeding events in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of major bleeding on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may improve balancing risks and benefits of different durations of DAPT following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). OBJECTIVES: To determine the CFR of major bleeding in patients on DAPT after PCI and to compare rates among different durations of DAPT. METHODS: Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched from inception to August 2021 for randomized trials that reported fatal bleeding among patients who were randomized to ≥1 month of DAPT following PCI. Summary estimates for CFRs of major bleeding were calculated using the random-effects inverse-variance method. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic. RESULTS: Of 2777 citations obtained by the search, 15 (48%) of 31 potentially eligible studies were excluded because fatal bleeding was not reported, leaving 16 studies that were included in the analysis. Overall, there were 823 major bleeding events including 91 fatal events in 48,884 patients who were assigned to receive DAPT during study follow-up. The CFR of major bleeding was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1­ 16.2; I2= 50%) in the entire study population, and 13.8% (95% CI, 6.5­27.1; I2= 28%), 11.2% (95% CI, 6.7­ 18.0; I2= 0%), and 5.8% (95% CI, 3.0­11.1; I2= 0%) in those on short-term (≤6 months; n= 16,553), standard-term (12 months; n= 19,453), and long-term DAPT (>12 months; n= 10,238), respectively. CONCLUSION: Fatal bleeding is not reported in many studies evaluating DAPT after PCI. The CFR of major bleeding on DAPT is substantial and may be higher in the first 12 months of DAPT than during long-term DAPT.

Thrombophilia Impact on Treatment Decisions, Subsequent Venous or Arterial Thrombosis and Pregnancy-Related Morbidity: A Retrospective Single-Center Cohort Study.

(1) Background: Thrombophilia testing utility has remained controversial since its clinical introduction, because data on its influence on treatment decisions are limited. (2) Methods: We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of 3550 unselected patients referred for thrombophilia consultation at the Bern University Hospital in Switzerland from January 2010 to October 2020. We studied the influence of thrombophilia testing results on treatment decisions and evaluated the association between thrombophilia and thromboembolic and pregnancy-related morbidity events after testing up to 03/2021. (3) Results: In 1192/3550 patients (34%), at least one case of thrombophilia was found and 366 (10%) had high-risk thrombophilia. A total of 211/3550 (6%) work-ups (111/826 (13%) with low-risk thrombophilia and 100/366 (27%) with high-risk thrombophilia) led to an appropriate decision to extend or initiate anticoagulation, and 189 (5%) negative results led to the withholding of anticoagulation therapy inappropriately. A total of 2492 patients (69%) were followed up for >30 days, with a median follow-up of 49 months (range, 1−183 months). Patients with high-risk thrombophilia had a higher risk of subsequent venous thromboembolic events and pregnancy-related morbidity compared to those without thrombophilia. (4) Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the limited usefulness of thrombophilia work-up in clinical decision-making. High-risk thrombophilia was associated with subsequent venous thromboembolism and pregnancy-related morbidity.

Predicting major bleeding during extended anticoagulation for unprovoked or weakly provoked venous thromboembolism.

No clinical prediction model has been specifically developed or validated to identify patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) who are at high risk of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation. In a prospective multinational cohort study of patients with unprovoked VTE receiving extended anticoagulation after completing ≥3 months of initial treatment, we derived a new clinical prediction model using a multivariable Cox regression model based on 22 prespecified candidate predictors for the primary outcome of major bleeding. This model was then compared with modified versions of 5 existing clinical scores. A total of 118 major bleeding events occurred in 2516 patients (annual risk, 1.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.1). The incidences of major bleeding events per 100 person-years in high-risk and non-high-risk patients, respectively, were 3.9 (95% CI, 3.0-5.1) and 1.1 (0.8-1.4) using the newly derived creatinine, hemoglobin, age, and use of antiplatelet agent (CHAP) model; 3.3 (2.6-4.1) and 1.0 (0.7-1.3) using modified ACCP score, 5.3 (0.6-19.2) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified RIETE score, 3.1 (2.3-3.9) and 1.1 (0.9-1.5) using modified VTE-BLEED score, 5.2 (3.3-7.8) and 1.5 (1.2-1.8) using modified HAS-BLED score, and 4.8 (1.3-12.4) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified outpatient bleeding index score. Modified versions of the ACCP, VTE-BLEED, and HAS-BLED scores help identify patients with unprovoked VTE who are at high risk of major bleeding and should be considered for discontinuation of anticoagulation after 3 to 6 months of initial treatment. The CHAP model may further improve estimation of bleeding risk by using continuous predictor variables, but external validation is required before its implementation in clinical practice.