Strong responses from weakly interacting species.

The impact of species loss from competitive communities partly depends on how populations of the surviving species respond. Predicting the response should be straightforward using models that describe population growth as a function of competitor densities; but these models require accurate estimates of interaction strengths. Here, we quantified how well we could predict responses to competitor removal in a community of annual plants, using a combination of observation and experiment. It was straightforward to fit models to multi-species communities, which passed standard diagnostic tests and provided apparently sensible estimates of interaction strengths. However, the models consistently underpredicted the response to competitor removal, by a factor of at least 50%. We argue that this poor predictive ability is likely to be general in plant communities due to 'the ghost of competition present' that confines species to parts of the environment in which they compete best.

The value of biodiversity for the functioning of tropical forests: insurance effects during the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment.

One of the main environmental threats in the tropics is selective logging, which has degraded large areas of forest. In southeast Asia, enrichment planting with seedlings of the dominant group of dipterocarp tree species aims to accelerate restoration of forest structure and functioning. The role of tree diversity in forest restoration is still unclear, but the 'insurance hypothesis' predicts that in temporally and spatially varying environments planting mixtures may stabilize functioning owing to differences in species traits and ecologies. To test for potential insurance effects, we analyse the patterns of seedling mortality and growth in monoculture and mixture plots over the first decade of the Sabah biodiversity experiment. Our results reveal the species differences required for potential insurance effects including a trade-off in which species with denser wood have lower growth rates but higher survival. This trade-off was consistent over time during the first decade, but growth and mortality varied spatially across our 500 ha experiment with species responding to changing conditions in different ways. Overall, average survival rates were extreme in monocultures than mixtures consistent with a potential insurance effect in which monocultures of poorly surviving species risk recruitment failure, whereas monocultures of species with high survival have rates of self-thinning that are potentially wasteful when seedling stocks are limited. Longer-term monitoring as species interactions strengthen will be needed to more comprehensively test to what degree mixtures of species spread risk and use limited seedling stocks more efficiently to increase diversity and restore ecosystem structure and functioning.

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity.

Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.

Relatedness is a poor predictor of negative plant-soil feedbacks.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying negative plant-soil feedbacks remains a critical challenge in plant ecology. If closely related species are more similar, then phylogeny could be used as a predictor for plant species interactions, simplifying our understanding of how plant-soil feedbacks structure plant communities, underlie invasive species dynamics, or reduce agricultural productivity. Here, we test the utility of phylogeny for predicting plant-soil feedbacks by undertaking a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis on all available pairwise plant-soil feedback experiments conducted over the last two decades, including 133 plant species in 329 pairwise interactions. We found that the sign and magnitude of plant-soil feedback effects were not explained by the phylogenetic distance separating interacting species. This result was consistent across different life forms, life cycles, provenances, and phylogenetic scales. Our analysis shows that, contrary to widespread assumption, relatedness is a poor predictor of plant-soil feedback effects.

Land-use intensity and the effects of organic farming on biodiversity: a hierarchical meta-analysis.

The benefits of organic farming to biodiversity in agricultural landscapes continue to be hotly debated, emphasizing the importance of precisely quantifying the effect of organic vs. conventional farming. We conducted an updated hierarchical meta-analysis of studies that compared biodiversity under organic and conventional farming methods, measured as species richness. We calculated effect sizes for 184 observations garnered from 94 studies, and for each study, we obtained three standardized measures reflecting land-use intensity. We investigated the stability of effect sizes through time, publication bias due to the 'file drawer' problem, and consider whether the current literature is representative of global organic farming patterns. On average, organic farming increased species richness by about 30%. This result has been robust over the last 30 years of published studies and shows no sign of diminishing. Organic farming had a greater effect on biodiversity as the percentage of the landscape consisting of arable fields increased, that is, it is higher in intensively farmed regions. The average effect size and the response to agricultural intensification depend on taxonomic group, functional group and crop type. There is some evidence for publication bias in the literature; however, our results are robust to its impact. Current studies are heavily biased towards northern and western Europe and North America, while other regions with large areas of organic farming remain poorly investigated. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis affirms that organic farming has large positive effects on biodiversity compared with conventional farming, but that the effect size varies with the organism group and crop studied, and is greater in landscapes with higher land-use intensity. Decisions about where to site organic farms to maximize biodiversity will, however, depend on the costs as well as the potential benefits. Current studies have been heavily biased towards agricultural systems in the developed world. We recommend that future studies pay greater attention to other regions, in particular, areas with tropical, subtropical and Mediterranean climates, in which very few studies have been conducted.

MODISTools - downloading and processing MODIS remotely sensed data in R.

Remotely sensed data - available at medium to high resolution across global spatial and temporal scales - are a valuable resource for ecologists. In particular, products from NASA's MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), providing twice-daily global coverage, have been widely used for ecological applications. We present MODISTools, an R package designed to improve the accessing, downloading, and processing of remotely sensed MODIS data. MODISTools automates the process of data downloading and processing from any number of locations, time periods, and MODIS products. This automation reduces the risk of human error, and the researcher effort required compared to manual per-location downloads. The package will be particularly useful for ecological studies that include multiple sites, such as meta-analyses, observation networks, and globally distributed experiments. We give examples of the simple, reproducible workflow that MODISTools provides and of the checks that are carried out in the process. The end product is in a format that is amenable to statistical modeling. We analyzed the relationship between species richness across multiple higher taxa observed at 526 sites in temperate forests and vegetation indices, measures of aboveground net primary productivity. We downloaded MODIS derived vegetation index time series for each location where the species richness had been sampled, and summarized the data into three measures: maximum time-series value, temporal mean, and temporal variability. On average, species richness covaried positively with our vegetation index measures. Different higher taxa show different positive relationships with vegetation indices. Models had high R (2) values, suggesting higher taxon identity and a gradient of vegetation index together explain most of the variation in species richness in our data. MODISTools can be used on Windows, Mac, and Linux platforms, and is available from CRAN and GitHub (https://github.com/seantuck12/MODISTools).