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BACKGROUND: Heat-related mortality has become a growing public health concern in light of climate change. However, few studies have quantified the climate-attributable health burden in Cyprus, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study aims to estimate the heat-related mortality in Cyprus for all future decades in the 21st century under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios. METHODS: We applied distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline associations between temperature and mortality from 2004 to 2019 (data obtained from Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment and the Health Monitoring Unit of the Cyprus Ministry of Health). The relationships were then extrapolated to future daily mean temperatures derived from downscaled global climate projections from General Circulation Models. Attributable number of deaths were calculated to determine the excess heat-related health burden compared to the baseline decade of 2000-2009 in the additive scale. The analysis process was repeated for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and mortality among males, females, and adults younger or older than 65. We assumed a static population and demographic structure, no adaptation to hot temperatures over time, and did not evaluate potential interaction between temperature and humidity. RESULTS: Compared to 2000-2009, heat-related total mortality is projected to increase by 2.7% (95% empirical confidence interval: 0.6, 4.0) and 4.75% (2.2, 7.1) by the end of the century in the moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is expected to be an important cause of heat-related death with projected increases of 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) and 6% (2.6, 9.0) by the end of the century. Reducing carbon emission to the moderate scenario can help avoid 75% of the predicted increase in all-cause heat-related mortality by the end of the century relative to the extreme scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that climate change mitigation and sustainable adaptation strategies are crucial to reduce the anticipated heat-attributable health burden, particularly in Cyprus, where adaptation strategies such as air conditioning is nearing capacity.
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INTRODUCTION: Elevated particulate matter (PM) concentrations of anthropogenic and/or desert dust origin are associated with increased morbidity among children with asthma. OBJECTIVE: The Mitigating the Health Effects of Desert Dust Storms Using Exposure-Reduction Approaches randomised controlled trial assessed the impact of exposure reduction recommendations, including indoor air filtration, on childhood asthma control during high desert dust storms (DDS) season in Cyprus and Greece. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, INTERVENTIONS AND SETTING: Primary school children with asthma were randomised into three parallel groups: (a) no intervention (controls); (b) outdoor intervention (early alerts notifications, recommendations to stay indoors and limit outdoor physical activity during DDS) and (c) combined intervention (same as (b) combined with indoor air purification with high efficiency particulate air filters in children's homes and school classrooms. Asthma symptom control was assessed using the childhood Asthma Control Test (c-ACT), spirometry (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC)) and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO). RESULTS: In total, 182 children with asthma (age; mean=9.5, SD=1.63) were evaluated during 2019 and 2021. After three follow-up months, the combined intervention group demonstrated a significant improvement in c-ACT in comparison to controls (ß=2.63, 95% CI 0.72 to 4.54, p=0.007), which was more profound among atopic children (ß=3.56, 95% CI 0.04 to 7.07, p=0.047). Similarly, FEV1% predicted (ß=4.26, 95% CI 0.54 to 7.99, p=0.025), the need for any asthma medication and unscheduled clinician visits, but not FVC% and FeNO, were significantly improved in the combined intervention compared with controls. CONCLUSION: Recommendations to reduce exposure and use of indoor air filtration in areas with high PM pollution may improve symptom control and lung function in children with asthma. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03503812.
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Asma , Polvo , Humanos , Asma/prevención & control , Niño , Masculino , Femenino , Chipre , Material Particulado/análisis , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/prevención & control , Grecia , Filtros de Aire , Contaminación del Aire Interior/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire Interior/prevención & control , Óxido Nítrico/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Volumen Espiratorio ForzadoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Mediterranean countries experience frequent desert dust storm (DDS) events originating from neighbouring Sahara and Arabian deserts, which are associated with significant increase in mortality and hospital admissions, mostly from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution is considered as a trigger for symptomatic exacerbations of pre-existing paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) and other types of heart arrhythmia. The Mitigating the Health Effects of Desert Dust Storms Using Exposure-Reduction Approaches clinical randomised intervention study in adults with AF is funded by EU LIFE+programme to evaluate the efficacy of recommendations aiming to reduce exposure to desert dust and related heart arrhythmia effects. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study is performed in three heavily exposed to desert dust regions of the Eastern Mediterranean: Cyprus, Israel and Crete-Greece. Adults with paroxysmal AF and implanted pacemaker are recruited and randomised to three parallel groups: (a) no intervention, (b) interventions to reduce outdoor exposure to desert dust, (c) interventions to reduce both outdoor and indoor exposure to particulate matter during desert dust episodes. Eligible participants are enrolled on a web-based platform which communicates, alerts and makes exposure reduction recommendations during DDS events. Exposure changes are assessed by novel tools (smartwatches with Global Positioning System and physical activity sensors, air pollution samplers assessing air quality inside and outside participant's homes, etc). Clinical outcomes include the AF burden expressed as the percentage of time with paroxysmal AF over the total study period, the incidence of ventricular arrhythmia episodes as recorded by the participants' pacemakers or cardioverters/defibrillators and the disease-specific Atrial Fibrillation Effect on QualiTy-of-Life questionnaire. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Local bioethics' authorities approved the study at all sites, according to national legislations (Cyprus: National Bioethics Committee, Data Protection Commissioner and Ministry of Health; Greece, Scientific Committee and Governing Board of the University General Hospital of Heraklion; Israel: Institutional Review Board ('Helsinki committee') of the Soroka University Medical Center). The findings will be publicised in peer-reviewed scientific journals, in international conferences and in professional websites and newsletters. A summary of the results and participants' interviews will be included in a documentary in English, Greek and Hebrew. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier; NCT03503812.
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Fibrilación Atrial , Polvo , Adulto , Humanos , Fibrilación Atrial/terapia , Chipre , Grecia/epidemiología , Israel/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Current public health recommendations for desert dust storms (DDS) events focus on vulnerable population groups, such as children with asthma, and include advice to stay indoors and limit outdoor physical activity. To date, no scientific evidence exists on the efficacy of these recommendations in reducing DDS exposure. We aimed to objectively assess the behavioral responses of children with asthma to recommendations for reduction of DDS exposure. In two heavily affected by DDS Mediterranean regions (Cyprus & Crete, Greece), schoolchildren with asthma (6-11 years) were recruited from primary schools and were randomized to control (business as usual scenario) and intervention groups. All children were equipped with pedometer and GPS sensors embedded in smartwatches for objective real-time data collection from inside and outside their classroom and household settings. Interventions included the timely communication of personal DDS alerts accompanied by exposure reduction recommendations to both the parents and school-teachers of children in the intervention group. A mixed effect model was used to assess changes in daily levels of time spent, and steps performed outside classrooms and households, between non-DDS and DDS days across the study groups. The change in the time spent outside classrooms and homes, between non-DDS and DDS days, was 37.2 min (pvalue = 0.098) in the control group and -62.4 min (pvalue < 0.001) in the intervention group. The difference in the effects between the two groups was statistically significant (interaction pvalue < 0.001). The change in daily steps performed outside classrooms and homes, was -495.1 steps (pvalue = 0.350) in the control group and -1039.5 (pvalue = 0.003) in the intervention group (interaction pvalue = 0.575). The effects on both the time and steps performed outside were more profound during after-school hours. To summarize, among children with asthma, we demonstrated that timely personal DDS alerts and detailed recommendations lead to significant behavioral changes in contrast to the usual public health recommendations.
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Asma , Dispositivos Electrónicos Vestibles , Niño , Humanos , Polvo/prevención & control , Asma/prevención & control , Asma/epidemiología , Instituciones Académicas , ComunicaciónRESUMEN
Desert dust storms (DDS) are natural events that impact not only populations close to the emission sources but also populations many kilometers away. Countries located across the main dust sources, including countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, are highly affected by DDS. In addition, climate change is expanding arid areas exacerbating DDS events. Currently, there are no intervention measures with proven, quantified exposure reduction to desert dust particles. As part of the wider "MEDEA" project, co-funded by LIFE 2016 Programme, we examined the effectiveness of an indoor exposure-reduction intervention (i.e., decrease home ventilation during DDS events and continuous use of air purifier during DDS and non-DDS days) across homes and/or classrooms of schoolchildren with asthma and adults with atrial fibrillation in Cyprus and Crete-Greece. Participants were randomized to a control or intervention groups, including an indoor intervention group with exposure reduction measures and the use of air purifiers. Particle sampling, PM10 and PM2.5, was conducted in participants' homes and/or classrooms, between 2019 and 2022, during DDS-free weeks and during DDS days for as long as the event lasted. In indoor and outdoor PM10 and PM2.5 samples, mass and content in main and trace elements was determined. Indoor PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations, adjusting for premise type and dust conditions, were significantly lower in the indoor intervention group compared to the control group (PM2.5-intervention/PM2.5-control = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.70; PM10-intervention/PM10-control = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.71). In addition, the PM2.5 and PM10 particles of outdoor origin were significantly lower in the intervention vs. the control group (PM2.5 infiltration intervention-to-control ratio: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.58; PM10 infiltration intervention-to-control ratio: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.89). Our findings suggest that the use of air purifiers alongside decreased ventilation measures is an effective protective measure that reduces significantly indoor exposure to particles during DDS and non-DDS in high-risk population groups.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire Interior , Oligoelementos , Adulto , Humanos , Niño , Contaminación del Aire Interior/prevención & control , Contaminación del Aire Interior/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Polvo/prevención & control , Polvo/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Tamaño de la PartículaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Desert dust events in Mediterranean countries, originating mostly from the Sahara and Arabian deserts, have been linked to climate change and are associated with significant increase in mortality and hospital admissions from respiratory causes. The MEDEA clinical intervention study in children with asthma is funded by EU LIFE+ program to evaluate the efficacy of recommendations aiming to reduce exposure to desert dust and related health effects. METHODS: This paper describes the design, methods, and challenges of the MEDEA childhood asthma study, which is performed in two highly exposed regions of the Eastern Mediterranean: Cyprus and Greece-Crete. Eligible children are recruited using screening surveys performed at primary schools and are randomized to three parallel intervention groups: a) no intervention for desert dust events, b) interventions for outdoor exposure reduction, and c) interventions for both outdoor and indoor exposure reduction. At baseline visits, participants are enrolled on MEDena® Health-Hub, which communicates, alerts and provides exposure reduction recommendations in anticipation of desert dust events. MEDEA employs novel environmental epidemiology and telemedicine methods including wearable GPS, actigraphy, health parameters sensors as well as indoor and outdoor air pollution samplers to assess study participants' compliance to recommendations, air pollutant exposures in homes and schools, and disease related clinical outcomes. DISCUSSION: The MEDEA study evaluates, for the first time, interventions aiming to reduce desert dust exposure and implement novel telemedicine methods in assessing clinical outcomes and personal compliance to recommendations. In Cyprus and Crete, during the first study period (February-May 2019), a total of 91 children participated in the trial while for the second study period (February-May 2020), another 120 children completed data collection. Recruitment for the third study period (February-May 2021) is underway. In this paper, we also present the unique challenges faced during the implementation of novel methodologies to reduce air pollution exposure in children. Engagement of families of asthmatic children, schools and local communities, is critical. Successful study completion will provide the knowledge for informed decision-making both at national and international level for mitigating the health effects of desert dust events in South-Eastern Europe. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03503812 , April 20, 2018.
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Contaminación del Aire Interior , Contaminación del Aire , Asma , África del Norte , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/prevención & control , Asma/diagnóstico , Asma/prevención & control , Niño , Polvo/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Europa Oriental , Grecia , HumanosRESUMEN
The characteristics of desert dust storms (DDS) have been shown to change in response to climate change and land use. There is limited information on the frequency and intensity of DDS over the last decade at a regional scale in the Eastern Mediterranean. An algorithm based on daily ground measurements (PM10, particulate matter ≤10 µm), satellite products (dust aerosol optical depth) and meteorological parameters, was used to identify dust intrusions for three Eastern Mediterranean locations (Crete-Greece, Cyprus, and Israel) between 2006 and 2017. Days with 24-hr average PM10 concentration above ~30 µg/m3 were found to be a significant indicator of DDS for the background sites of Cyprus and Crete. Higher thresholds were found for Israel depending on the season (fall and spring: PM10 > 70 µg/m3, winter and summer: PM10 > 90 µg/m3). We observed a high variability in the frequency and intensity of DDS during the last decade, characterized by a steady trend with sporadic peaks. The years with the highest DDS frequency were not necessarily the years with the most intense episodes. Specifically, the highest dust frequency was observed in 2010 at all three locations, but the highest annual median dust-PM10 level was observed in 2012 in Crete (55.8 µg/m3) and Israel (137.4 µg/m3), and in 2010 in Cyprus (45.3 µg/m3). Crete and Cyprus experienced the same most intense event in 2006, with 24 h-PM10 average of 705.7 µg/m3 and 1254.6 µg/m3, respectively, which originated from Sahara desert. The highest 24 h-PM10 average concentration for Israel was observed in 2010 (3210.9 µg/m3) during a three-day Saharan dust episode. However, a sub-analysis for Cyprus (years 2000-2017) suggests a change in DDS seasonality pattern, intensity, and desert of origin. For more robust conclusions on DDS trends in relation to climate change, future work needs to study data over several decades from different locations.