RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. DESIGN: A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. PARTICIPANTS: Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. OUTCOME MEASURES: We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. RESULTS: In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020. DISCUSSION: Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence.