Cell-Free DNA for the detection of kidney allograft rejection.

Donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) is an emerging non-invasive biomarker that has the potential to detect allograft injury. The capacity of donor-derived cell-free DNA to detect kidney allograft rejection and its added clinical value beyond standard of care patient monitoring is unclear. We enrolled 2,882 kidney allograft recipients from 14 transplantation centers in Europe and the US in an observational population-based study. The primary analysis included 1,134 patients. Donor-derived cell-free DNA levels strongly correlated with allograft rejection including antibody-mediated rejection (p < 0.0001), T-Cell mediated rejection (p < 0.0001) and mixed rejection (p < 0.0001). In multivariable analysis, circulating dd-cfDNA was significantly associated with allograft rejection (OR: 2.275; CI:1.902-2.739; p < 0.0001) independently of standard of care patient monitoring parameters. The inclusion of dd-cfDNA to a standard of care prediction model showed improved discrimination (0.777 [95% CI: 0.741-0.811] to 0.821 [95% CI: 0.784-0.852]; p = 0.0011) and calibration. These results were confirmed in the external validation cohorts (n = 1,748) including a cohort of African American patients (n = 439). Finally, dd-cfDNA showed high predictive value to detect subclinical rejection in stable patients. Our study provides insights on the potential value of assessing dd-cfDNA, in addition to standard of care monitoring, to improve the detection of allograft rejection. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05995379.

SOX9 switch links regeneration to fibrosis at the single-cell level in mammalian kidneys.

The steps governing healing with or without fibrosis within the same microenvironment are unclear. After acute kidney injury (AKI), injured proximal tubular epithelial cells activate SOX9 for self-restoration. Using a multimodal approach for a head-to-head comparison of injury-induced SOX9 lineages, we identified a dynamic SOX9 switch in repairing epithelia. Lineages that regenerated epithelia silenced SOX9 and healed without fibrosis (SOX9on-off). By contrast, lineages with unrestored apicobasal polarity maintained SOX9 activity in sustained efforts to regenerate, which were identified as a SOX9on-on Cadherin6pos cell state. These reprogrammed cells generated substantial single-cell WNT activity to provoke a fibroproliferative response in adjacent fibroblasts, driving AKI to chronic kidney disease. Transplanted human kidneys displayed similar SOX9/CDH6/WNT2B responses. Thus, we have uncovered a sensor of epithelial repair status, the activity of which determines regeneration with or without fibrosis.

Automated Urinary Chemokine Assays for Noninvasive Detection of Kidney Transplant Rejection: A Prospective Cohort Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Prior studies have demonstrated the diagnostic potential of urinary chemokines C-X-C motif ligand 9 (CXCL9) and CXCL10 for kidney transplant rejection. However, their benefit in addition to clinical information has not been demonstrated. We evaluated the diagnostic performance for detecting acute rejection of urinary CXCL9 and CXCL10 when integrated with clinical information. STUDY DESIGN: Single-center prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed 1,559 biopsy-paired urinary samples from 622 kidney transplants performed between April 2013 and July 2019 at a single transplant center in Belgium. External validation was performed in 986 biopsy-paired urinary samples. TESTS COMPARED: We quantified urinary CXCL9 (uCXCL9) and CXCL10 (uCXCL10) using an automated immunoassay platform and normalized the values to urinary creatinine. Urinary chemokines were incorporated into a multivariable model with routine clinical markers (estimated glomerular filtration rate, donor-specific antibodies, and polyoma viremia) (integrated model). This model was then compared with the tissue diagnosis according to the Banff classification for acute rejection. OUTCOME: Acute rejection detected on kidney biopsy using the Banff classification. RESULTS: Chemokines integrated with routine clinical markers had high diagnostic value for detection of acute rejection (n=150) (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve 81.3% [95% CI, 77.6-85.0]). The integrated model would help avoid 59 protocol biopsies per 100 patients when the risk for rejection is predicted to be below 10%. The performance of the integrated model was similar in the external validation cohort. LIMITATIONS: The cross-sectional nature obviates investigating the evolution over time and prediction of future rejection. CONCLUSIONS: The use of an integrated model of urinary chemokines and clinical markers for noninvasive monitoring of rejection could enable a reduction in the number of biopsies. Urinary chemokines may be useful noninvasive biomarkers whose use should be further studied in prospective randomized trials to clarify their role in guiding clinical care and the use of biopsies to detect rejection after kidney transplantation. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Urinary chemokines CXCL9 and CXCL10 have been suggested to be good noninvasive biomarkers of kidney transplant rejection. However, defining a context of use and integration with clinical information is necessary before clinical implementation can begin. In this study, we demonstrated that urinary chemokines CXCL9 and CXCL10, together with clinical information, have substantial diagnostic accuracy for the detection of acute kidney transplant rejection. Application of urinary chemokines together with clinical information may guide biopsy practices following kidney transplantation and potentially reduce the need for kidney transplant biopsies.

Leukopenia in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a single-center cohort of kidney transplant candidates with post-transplantation follow-up.

Background: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) has occasionally been associated with lower peripheral white blood cell (WBC) counts. This study aimed to investigate the peripheral blood cell counts in a large cohort of kidney transplant recipients before and after kidney transplantation and its potential impact on post-transplant outcomes. Methods: This was a retrospective study with long-term follow-up data of 2090 patients who underwent a first kidney transplantation in the Leuven University Hospitals, of whom 392 had ADPKD. Results: In total, 2090 patients who underwent a first kidney transplantation in the Leuven University Hospitals were included, of whom 392 had ADPKD. Both pre- and post-transplantation, ADPKD patients had significantly lower total WBC counts, and more specifically lower neutrophil, lymphocyte and eosinophil counts compared with the non-ADPKD patients. This observation was independent of potential confounders such as level of inflammation, smoking habit, vitamins and pre-transplant medication. Overall survival and kidney transplant survival were significantly better in ADPKD vs non-ADPKD transplant recipients and a longer time to first infection was observed. However, no association between blood cell counts and outcome differences was found. Conclusions: In conclusion, this large single-center study reports a strong and independent association between ADPKD and lower peripheral WBC counts both before and after kidney transplantation. Considering the role of inflammation in disease progression, further investigation into the role of WBC in ADPKD is needed.

An observational cohort study of histological screening for BK polyomavirus nephropathy following viral replication in plasma.

Systematic screening for BKPyV-DNAemia has been advocated to aid prevention and treatment of polyomavirus associated nephropathy (PyVAN), an important cause of kidney graft failure. The added value of performing a biopsy at time of BKPyV-DNAemia, to distinguish presumptive PyVAN (negative SV40 immunohistochemistry) and proven PyVAN (positive SV40) has not been established. Therefore, we studied an unselected cohort of 950 transplantations, performed between 2008-2017. BKPyV-DNAemia was detected in 250 (26.3%) transplant recipients, and positive SV40 in 91 cases (9.6%). Among 209 patients with a concurrent biopsy at time of first BKPyV-DNAemia, 60 (28.7%) biopsies were SV40 positive. Plasma viral load showed high diagnostic value for concurrent SV40 positivity (ROC-AUC 0.950, 95% confidence interval 0.916-0.978) and the semiquantitatively scored percentage of tubules with evidence of polyomavirus replication (pvl score) (0.979, 0.968-0.988). SV40 positivity was highly unlikely when plasma viral load is below 4 log10 copies/ml (negative predictive value 0.989, 0.979-0.994). In SV40 positive patients, higher plasma BKPyV-DNA load and higher pvl scores were associated with slower viral clearance from the blood (hazard ratio 0.712, 95% confidence interval 0.604-0.839, and 0.327, 0.161-0.668, respectively), whereas the dichotomy positivity/negativity of SV40 immunohistochemistry did not predict viral clearance. Although the pvl score offers some prognostic value for viral clearance on top of plasma viral load, the latter provided good guidance for when a biopsy was unnecessary to exclude PyVAN. Thus, the distinction between presumptive and proven PyVAN, based on SV40 immunohistochemistry, has limited clinical value. Hence, management of BKPyV-DNAemia and immunosuppression reduction should be weighed against the risk of occurrence of rejection, or exacerbation of rejection observed concomitantly.

Time-dependent variations in BK polyomavirus genome from kidney transplant recipients with persistent viremia.

BK polyomavirus (BKPyV) is a human DNA virus that resides latent in the host's renal tissue. Reactivation occurs occasionally and in case of kidney transplantation, it can lead to polyomavirus-associated nephropathy (PVAN). Due to the lack of specific antivirals for BKPyV and despite the risk of allograft rejection, reduction of immunosuppression remains the main approach for treating PVAN. Current data suggests that mutations can accumulate over time in the major capsid protein VP1 and can lead to neutralization escape in kidney transplant recipients. Herein, we show that mutations occur throughout the entire BKPyV genome, including in VP1. Changes were identified by per-patient comparison of viral genome sequences obtained in samples from 32 kidney recipients with persistent viremia collected at different post-transplant time-points. Amino acid changes were observed in both earlier and later post-transplant samples, although some of them were only found in later samples. Changes in VP1 mainly consisted in the introduction of a new amino acid. A switch back to the conservative amino acid was also observed. This should be considered in future approaches for treating BKPyV infection in kidney transplant recipients.

Transcriptional and spatial profiling of the kidney allograft unravels a central role for FcyRIII+ innate immune cells in rejection.

Rejection remains the main cause of premature graft loss after kidney transplantation, despite the use of potent immunosuppression. This highlights the need to better understand the composition and the cell-to-cell interactions of the alloreactive inflammatory infiltrate. Here, we performed droplet-based single-cell RNA sequencing of 35,152 transcriptomes from 16 kidney transplant biopsies with varying phenotypes and severities of rejection and without rejection, and identified cell-type specific gene expression signatures for deconvolution of bulk tissue. A specific association was identified between recipient-derived FCGR3A+ monocytes, FCGR3A+ NK cells and the severity of intragraft inflammation. Activated FCGR3A+ monocytes overexpressed CD47 and LILR genes and increased paracrine signaling pathways promoting T cell infiltration. FCGR3A+ NK cells overexpressed FCRL3, suggesting that antibody-dependent cytotoxicity is a central mechanism of NK-cell mediated graft injury. Multiplexed immunofluorescence using 38 markers on 18 independent biopsy slides confirmed this role of FcγRIII+ NK and FcγRIII+ nonclassical monocytes in antibody-mediated rejection, with specificity to the glomerular area. These results highlight the central involvement of innate immune cells in the pathogenesis of allograft rejection and identify several potential therapeutic targets that might improve allograft longevity.

Modulation of Monocyte Response by MicroRNA-15b/106a/374a During Antibody-mediated Rejection in Kidney Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggest that microRNAs are involved in the physiopathology of acute or chronic renal disease. In kidney transplantation, as key regulators of cellular homeostasis, microRNAs may be involved in the regulation of immune cell function and the allograft response. Here, we investigated the change in circulating microRNA expression profile and their involvement in the profound transcriptional changes associated with antibody-mediated rejection (AMR). METHODS: Blood samples were collected at the time of the 710 kidney allograft biopsies at 4 European transplant centers. Messenger RNA and microRNA profiling analyses were performed in a discovery-to-validation study within 3 independent cohorts encompassing N = 126, N = 135, and N = 416 patients, respectively. RESULTS: Compared with samples with no AMR, 14 microRNAs were significantly decreased in AMR samples. Among them, expression levels of microRNA-15b, microRNA-106a, and microRNA-374a gradually decreased with the severity of AMR lesions. From their in silico-predicted target genes, a high proportion proved to be significantly upregulated in the paired transcriptomic analysis. Gene ontology analyses of microRNA-15b/-106a/-374a suggested enrichment in myeloid-related pathways, which was further refined by in silico and ex vivo transcriptomic analyses, showing a specific origin from classical CD14 + monocytes. Finally, human CD14 + monocytes were subjected to transduction by antago-microRNAs to mimic AMR pathology. MicroRNA-15b/-106a/-374a impairment resulted in cellular activation with an increased expression of CD69, CRIM1, IPO7, and CAAP1, direct and common targets of the 3 microRNAs. CONCLUSIONS: Together, our data provide new insights into circulating microRNAs as markers and key players in AMR, and they suggest monocyte involvement in this process.

Data-Driven Chronic Allograft Phenotypes: A Novel and Validated Complement for Histologic Assessment of Kidney Transplant Biopsies.

BACKGROUND: No validated system currently exists to realistically characterize the chronic pathology of kidney transplants that represents the dynamic disease process and spectrum of disease severity. We sought to develop and validate a tool to describe chronicity and severity of renal allograft disease and integrate it with the evaluation of disease activity. METHODS: The training cohort included 3549 kidney transplant biopsies from an observational cohort of 937 recipients. We reweighted the chronic histologic lesions according to their time-dependent association with graft failure, and performed consensus k-means clustering analysis. Total chronicity was calculated as the sum of the weighted chronic lesion scores, scaled to the unit interval. RESULTS: We identified four chronic clusters associated with graft outcome, based on the proportion of ambiguous clustering. The two clusters with the worst survival outcome were determined by interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) and by transplant glomerulopathy. The chronic clusters partially overlapped with the existing Banff IFTA classification (adjusted Rand index, 0.35) and were distributed independently of the acute lesions. Total chronicity strongly associated with graft failure (hazard ratio [HR], 8.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.94 to 10.88; P<0.001), independent of the total activity scores (HR, 5.01; 95% CI, 2.83 to 7.00; P<0.001). These results were validated on an external cohort of 4031 biopsies from 2054 kidney transplant recipients. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation of total chronicity provides information on kidney transplant pathology that complements the estimation of disease activity from acute lesion scores. Use of the data-driven algorithm used in this study, called RejectClass, may provide a holistic and quantitative assessment of kidney transplant injury phenotypes and severity.

The Role of Fc Gamma Receptors in Antibody-Mediated Rejection of Kidney Transplants.

For the past decades, complement activation and complement-mediated destruction of allograft cells were considered to play a central role in anti-HLA antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) of kidney transplants. However, also complement-independent mechanisms are relevant in the downstream immune activation induced by donor-specific antibodies, such as Fc-gamma receptor (FcγR)-mediated direct cellular activation. This article reviews the literature regarding FcγR involvement in AMR, and the potential contribution of FcγR gene polymorphisms to the risk for antibody mediated rejection of kidney transplants. There is large heterogeneity between the studies, both in the definition of the clinical phenotypes and in the technical aspects. The study populations were generally quite small, except for two larger study cohorts, which obviates drawing firm conclusions regarding the associations between AMR and specific FcγR polymorphisms. Although FcγR are central in the pathophysiology of AMR, it remains difficult to identify genetic risk factors for AMR in the recipient's genome, independent of clinical risk factors, independent of the donor-recipient genetic mismatch, and in the presence of powerful immunosuppressive agents. There is a need for larger, multi-center studies with standardised methods and endpoints to identify potentially relevant FcγR gene polymorphisms that represent an increased risk for AMR after kidney transplantation.

Association of HLA Mismatches and Histology Suggestive of Antibody-Mediated Injury in the Absence of Donor-Specific Anti-HLA Antibodies.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The histology of antibody-mediated rejection after kidney transplantation is observed frequently in the absence of detectable donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. Although there is an active interest in the role of non-HLA antibodies in this phenotype, it remains unknown whether HLA mismatches play an antibody-independent role in this phenotype of microcirculation inflammation. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: To study this, we used the tools HLAMatchmaker, three-dimensional electrostatic mismatch score, HLA solvent accessible amino acid mismatches, and mismatched donor HLA-derived T cell epitope targets to determine the degree of HLA molecular mismatches in 893 kidney transplant recipients with available biopsy follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were applied to quantify the cause-specific hazard ratios of the different types of HLA mismatch scores for developing antibody-mediated rejection or histology of antibody-mediated rejection in the absence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. In all survival analyses, the patients were censored at the time of the last biopsy. RESULTS: In total, 121 (14%) patients developed histology of antibody-mediated rejection in the absence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies, of which 44 (36%) patients had concomitant T cell-mediated rejection. In multivariable Cox analysis, all different calculations of the degree of HLA mismatch associated with developing histology of antibody-mediated rejection in the absence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. This association was dependent neither on the presence of missing self (potentially related to natural killer cell activation) nor on the formation of de novo HLA antibodies. Also, glomerulitis and complement C4d deposition in peritubular capillaries associated with the degree of HLA mismatch in the absence of anti-HLA antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: The histology of antibody-mediated rejection and its defining lesions are also observed in patients without circulating anti-HLA antibodies and relate to the degree of HLA mismatch.

Association of Predicted HLA T-Cell Epitope Targets and T-Cell-Mediated Rejection After Kidney Transplantation.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The relationship between human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecular mismatches and T-cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) is unknown. We investigated the associations between the different donor HLA-derived T-cell targets and the occurrence of TCMR and borderline histologic changes suggestive of TCMR after kidney transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: All kidney transplant recipients at a single center between 2004 and 2013 with available biopsy data and a DNA sample for high-resolution HLA donor/recipient typing (N = 893). EXPOSURE: Scores calculated by the HLA matching algorithm PIRCHE-II and HLA eplet mismatches. OUTCOME: TCMR, borderline changes suggestive of TCMR, and allograft failure. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable cause-specific hazards models were fit to characterize the association between HLA epitopes targets and study outcomes. RESULTS: We found 277 patients developed TCMR, and 134 developed only borderline changes suggestive of TCMR on at least 1 biopsy. In multivariable analyses, only the PIRCHE-II scores for HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 were independently associated with the occurrence of TCMR and with allograft failure; this was not the case for HLA class I molecules. If restricted to rejection episodes within the first 3 months after transplantation, only the T-cell epitope targets originating from the donor's HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1, but not class I molecules, were associated with the early acute TCMR. Also, the median PIRCHE-II score for HLA class II was statistically different between the patients with TCMR compared to the patients without TCMR (129 [IQR, 60-240] vs 201 [IQR, 96-298], respectively; P < 0.0001). These differences were not observed for class I PIRCHE-II scores. LIMITATIONS: Observational clinical data and residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of HLA-DSA, HLA class II but not class I mismatches are associated with early episodes of acute TCMR and allograft failure. This suggests that current immunosuppressive therapies are largely able to abort the most deleterious HLA class I-directed alloimmune processes; however, alloresponses against HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 molecular mismatches remain insufficiently suppressed. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Genetic differences in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) complex between kidney transplant donors and recipients play a central role in T-cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), which can lead to failure of the transplanted kidney. Evaluating this genetic disparity (mismatch) in the HLA complex at the molecular (epitope) level could contribute to better prediction of the immune response to the donor organ posttransplantation. We investigated the associations of the different donor HLA-derived T-cell epitope targets and scores obtained from virtual crossmatch algorithms with the occurrence of TCMR, borderline TCMR, and graft failure after kidney transplantation after taking into account the influence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. This study illustrates the greater importance of the molecular mismatches in class II molecules compared to class I HLA molecules.

Biological pathways and comparison with biopsy signals and cellular origin of peripheral blood transcriptomic profiles during kidney allograft pathology.

Kidney transplant injury processes are associated with molecular changes in kidney tissue, primarily related to immune cell activation and infiltration. How these processes are reflected in the circulating immune cells, whose activation is targeted by strong immunosuppressants, is poorly understood. To study this, we analyzed the molecular alterations in 384 peripheral blood samples from four European transplant centers, taken at the time of a kidney allograft biopsy, selected for their phenotype, using RNA-sequencing. In peripheral blood, differentially expressed genes in 136 rejection and 248 no rejection samples demonstrated upregulation of glucocorticoid receptor and nucleotide oligomerization domain-like receptor signaling pathways. Pathways enriched in antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) were strongly immune-specific, whereas pathways enriched in T cell-mediated rejection were less immune related. In polyomavirus infection, upregulation of mitochondrial dysfunction and interferon signaling pathways was seen. Next, we integrated the blood results with transcriptomics of 224 kidney allograft biopsies which showed consistently upregulated genes per phenotype in both blood and biopsy. In single-cell RNASeq (scRNASeq) analysis of seven kidney allograft biopsies, the consistently overexpressed genes in ABMR were mostly expressed by infiltrating leukocytes in the allograft. Similarly, in peripheral blood scRNASeq analysis, these genes were overexpressed in ABMR in immune cell subtypes. Furthermore, overexpression of these genes in ABMR was confirmed in independent cohorts in blood and biopsy. Thus, our results highlight the immune activation pathways in peripheral blood leukocytes at the time of kidney allograft pathology, despite the use of current strong immunosuppressants, and provide a framework for future therapeutic interventions.

Noninvasive Diagnosis of Acute Rejection in Renal Transplant Patients Using Mass Spectrometric Analysis of Urine Samples: A Multicenter Diagnostic Phase III Trial.

Timely recognition and treatment of acute kidney graft rejection is important to prevent premature graft failure. A predefined urinary marker set for acute T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR) containing 14 peptides was tested for this purpose in a multicenter in-place validation study. Methods: Three hundred twenty-nine prospectively collected and 306 archived urine samples from 11 transplant centers in Germany, France, and Belgium were examined. Samples were taken immediately before a biopsy, performed for graft dysfunction within the first transplant year. Primary outcomes were sensitivity and specificity of the marker set for the diagnosis of biopsy-proven acute TCMR, with prespecified thresholds of 83% for sensitivity and 70% for specificity. Results: Eighty-two patients (13%) had acute TCMR grade I-III. In relation to the biopsy diagnosis of TCMR, the sensitivity of the urine test was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.76) and the specificity 0.47 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.51), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.60. The different TCMR grades I-III were not reflected by the marker set, and borderline TCMR was not specifically detected. Secondary independent masked assessment of biopsies consented by 2 pathologists revealed an interobserver kappa value of 0.49 for diagnosing TCMR, compared with the local center's diagnosis. Using this consensus diagnosis, the AUC of the urine test was 0.63 (sensitivity 0.73, specificity 0.45). Post hoc optimization of the marker set improved the diagnostic performance in the study cohort (AUC 0.67) and in an independent patient cohort (AUC 0.69). Conclusions: This study illustrates the difficulty of proteomics-based diagnosis of TCMR and highlights the need for rigorous independent in-place validation and optimization of diagnostic biomarkers.

Donor and recipient polygenic risk scores influence the risk of post-transplant diabetes.

Post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) reduces allograft and recipient life span. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) show robust association with greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). We examined the association of PTDM with T2D PRS in liver recipients (n = 1,581) and their donors (n = 1,555), and kidney recipients (n = 2,062) and their donors (n = 533). Recipient T2D PRS was associated with pre-transplant T2D and the development of PTDM. T2D PRS in liver donors, but not in kidney donors, was an independent risk factor for PTDM development. The inclusion of a combined liver donor and recipient T2D PRS significantly improved PTDM prediction compared with a model that included only clinical characteristics: the area under the curve (AUC) was 67.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 64.1-71.1%) for the combined T2D PRS versus 62.3% (95% CI 58.8-65.8%) for the clinical characteristics model (P = 0.0001). Liver recipients in the highest quintile of combined donor and recipient T2D PRS had the greatest risk of PTDM, with an odds ratio of 3.22 (95% CI 2.07-5.00) (P = 1.92 × 10-7) compared with those in the lowest quintile. In conclusion, T2D PRS identifies transplant candidates with high risk of PTDM for which pre-emptive diabetes management and donor selection may be warranted.

Circulating Donor-Specific Anti-HLA Antibodies Associate With Immune Activation Independent of Kidney Transplant Histopathological Findings.

Despite the critical role of cytokines in allograft rejection, the relation of peripheral blood cytokine profiles to clinical kidney transplant rejection has not been fully elucidated. We assessed 28 cytokines through multiplex assay in 293 blood samples from kidney transplant recipients at time of graft dysfunction. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering identified a subset of patients with increased pro-inflammatory cytokine levels. This patient subset was hallmarked by a high prevalence (75%) of donor-specific anti-human leukocyte antigen antibodies (HLA-DSA) and histological rejection (70%) and had worse graft survival compared to the group with low cytokine levels (HLA-DSA in 1.7% and rejection in 33.7%). Thirty percent of patients with high pro-inflammatory cytokine levels and HLA-DSA did not have histological rejection. Exploring the cellular origin of these cytokines, we found a corresponding expression in endothelial cells, monocytes, and natural killer cells in single-cell RNASeq data from kidney transplant biopsies. Finally, we confirmed secretion of these cytokines in HLA-DSA-mediated cross talk between endothelial cells, NK cells, and monocytes. In conclusion, blood pro-inflammatory cytokines are increased in kidney transplant patients with HLA-DSA, even in the absence of histology of rejection. These observations challenge the concept that histology is the gold standard for identification of ongoing allo-immune activation after transplantation.

Forecasting of Patient-Specific Kidney Transplant Function With a Sequence-to-Sequence Deep Learning Model.

Importance: Like other clinical biomarkers, trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after kidney transplant are characterized by intra-individual variability. These fluctuations hamper the distinction between alarming graft functional deterioration or harmless fluctuation within the patient-specific expected reference range of eGFR. Objective: To determine whether a deep learning model could accurately predict the patient-specific expected reference range of eGFR after kidney transplant. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter diagnostic study consisted of a derivation cohort of 933 patients who received a kidney transplant between 2004 and 2013 with 100 867 eGFR measurements from University Hospitals Leuven, Belgium, and 2 independent test cohorts: with 39 999 eGFR measurements from 1 170 patients, 1 from University Hospitals Leuven, Belgium, receiving transplants between 2013 and 2018 and 1 from Hannover Medical School, Germany, receiving transplants between 2003 and 2007. Patients receiving a single kidney transplant, with consecutive eGFR measurements were included. Data were analyzed from February 2019 to April 2021. Exposures: In the derivation cohort 100 867 eGFR measurements were available for analysis and 39 999 eGFR measurements from the independent test cohorts. Main Outcomes and Measures: A sequence-to-sequence model was developed for prediction of a patient-specific expected range of eGFR, based on previous eGFR values. The primary outcome was the performance of the deep learning sequence-to-sequence model in the 2 independent cohorts. Results: In this diagnostic study, a total of 933 patients in the training sets (mean [SD] age, 53.5 [13.3] years; 570 male [61.1%]) and 1170 patients in the independent test sets (cohort 1 [n = 621]: mean [SD] age, 58.5 [12.1] years; 400 male [64.4%]; cohort 2 [n = 549]: mean [SD] age, 50.1 [13.0] years; 316 male [57.6%]) who received a single kidney transplant most frequently from deceased donors, the sequence-to-sequence models accurately predicted future patient-specific eGFR trajectories within the first 3 months after transplant, based on the previous graft eGFR values (root mean square error, 6.4-8.9 mL/min/1.73 m2). The sequence-to-sequence model predictions outperformed the more conventional autoregressive integrated moving average prediction model, at all input/output number of eGFR values. Conclusions and Relevance: In this diagnostic study, a sequence-to-sequence deep learning model was developed and validated for individual forecasting of kidney transplant function. The patient-specific sequence predictions could be used in clinical practice to guide physicians on deviations from the expected intra-individual variability, rather than relating the individual results to the reference range of the healthy population.