Weight of evidence for cross-species conservation of androgen receptor-based biological activity.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) is tasked with assessing chemicals for their potential to perturb endocrine pathways, including those controlled by androgen receptor (AR). To address challenges associated with traditional testing strategies, EDSP is considering in vitro high-throughput screening assays to screen and prioritize chemicals more efficiently. The ability of these assays to accurately reflect chemical interactions in nonmammalian species remains uncertain. Therefore, a goal of the EDSP is to evaluate how broadly results can be extrapolated across taxa. To assess the cross-species conservation of AR-modulated pathways, computational analyses and systematic literature review approaches were used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of existing in silico, in vitro, and in vivo data. First, molecular target conservation was assessed across 585 diverse species based on the structural similarity of ARs. These results indicate that ARs are conserved across vertebrates and are predicted to share similarly susceptibility to chemicals that interact with the human AR. Systematic analysis of over 5000 published manuscripts was used to compile in vitro and in vivo cross-species toxicity data. Assessment of in vitro data indicates conservation of responses occurs across vertebrate ARs, with potential differences in sensitivity. Similarly, in vivo data indicate strong conservation of the AR signaling pathways across vertebrate species, although sensitivity may vary. Overall, this study demonstrates a framework for utilizing bioinformatics and existing data to build weight of evidence for cross-species extrapolation and provides a technical basis for extrapolating hAR-based data to prioritize hazard in nonmammalian vertebrate species.

Pilot testing and optimization of a larval fathead minnow high throughput transcriptomics assay.

Concentrations at which global gene expression profiles in cells or animals exposed to a test substance start to differ significantly from those of controls have been proposed as an alternative point of departure for use in screening level hazard assessment. The present study describes pilot testing of a high throughput compatible transcriptomics assay with larval fathead minnows. One day post hatch fathead minnows were exposed to eleven different concentrations of three metals, three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and four neonicotinoid-like compounds for 24 h and concentration response modeling was applied to whole body gene expression data. Transcriptomics-based points of departure (tPODs) were consistently lower than effect concentrations reported in apical endpoint studies in fish. However, larval fathead minnow-based tPODs were not always lower than concentrations reported to elicit apical toxicity in other aquatic organisms like crustaceans or insects. Random in silico subsampling of data from the pilot assays was used to evaluate various assay design and acceptance considerations such as transcriptome coverage, number of replicate individuals to sequence per treatment, and minimum number of differentially expressed genes to produce a reliable tPOD estimate. Results showed a strong association between the total number of genes for which a concentration response relationship could be derived and the overall variability in the resulting tPOD estimates. We conclude that, for our current assay design and analysis pipeline, tPODs based on fewer than 15 differentially expressed genes are likely to be unreliable for screening and that interindividual variability in gene expression profiles appears to be a more significant driver of tPOD variability than sample size alone. Results represent initial steps toward developing high throughput transcriptomics assays for use in ecological hazard screening.

Evaluation of Complex Mixture Toxicity in the Milwaukee Estuary (WI, USA) Using Whole-Mixture and Component-Based Evaluation Methods.

Anthropogenic activities introduce complex mixtures into aquatic environments, necessitating mixture toxicity evaluation during risk assessment. There are many alternative approaches that can be used to complement traditional techniques for mixture assessment. Our study aimed to demonstrate how these approaches could be employed for mixture evaluation in a target watershed. Evaluations were carried out over 2 years (2017-2018) across 8-11 study sites in the Milwaukee Estuary (WI, USA). Whole mixtures were evaluated on a site-specific basis by deploying caged fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) alongside composite samplers for 96 h and characterizing chemical composition, in vitro bioactivity of collected water samples, and in vivo effects in whole organisms. Chemicals were grouped based on structure/mode of action, bioactivity, and pharmacological activity. Priority chemicals and mixtures were identified based on their relative contributions to estimated mixture pressure (based on cumulative toxic units) and via predictive assessments (random forest regression). Whole mixture assessments identified target sites for further evaluation including two sites targeted for industrial/urban chemical mixture effects assessment; three target sites for pharmaceutical mixture effects assessment; three target sites for further mixture characterization; and three low-priority sites. Analyses identified 14 mixtures and 16 chemicals that significantly contributed to cumulative effects, representing high or medium priority targets for further ecotoxicological evaluation, monitoring, or regulatory assessment. Overall, our study represents an important complement to single-chemical prioritizations, providing a comprehensive evaluation of the cumulative effects of mixtures detected in a target watershed. Furthermore, it demonstrates how different tools and techniques can be used to identify diverse facets of mixture risk and highlights strategies that can be considered in future complex mixture assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1229-1256. © 2023 SETAC.

A framework for prioritizing contaminants in retrospective ecological assessments: Application in the Milwaukee Estuary (Milwaukee, WI).

Watersheds are subjected to diverse anthropogenic inputs, exposing aquatic biota to a wide range of chemicals. Detection of multiple, different chemicals can challenge natural resource managers who often have to determine where to allocate potentially limited resources. Here, we describe a weight-of-evidence framework for retrospectively prioritizing aquatic contaminants. To demonstrate framework utility, we used data from 96-h caged fish studies to prioritize chemicals detected in the Milwaukee Estuary (WI, USA; 2017-2018). Across study years, 77/178 targeted chemicals were detected. Chemicals were assigned prioritization scores based on spatial and temporal detection frequency, environmental distribution, environmental fate, ecotoxicological potential, and effect prediction. Chemicals were sorted into priority bins based on the intersection of prioritization score and data availability. Data-limited chemicals represented those that did not have sufficient data to adequately evaluate ecotoxicological potential or environmental fate. Seven compounds (fluoranthene, benzo[a]pyrene, pyrene, atrazine, metolachlor, phenanthrene, and DEET) were identified as high or medium priority and data sufficient and flagged as candidates for further effects-based monitoring studies. Twenty-one compounds were identified as high or medium priority and data limited and flagged as candidates for further ecotoxicological research. Fifteen chemicals were flagged as the lowest priority in the watershed. One of these chemicals (2-methylnaphthalene) displayed no data limitations and was flagged as a definitively low-priority chemical. The remaining chemicals displayed some data limitations and were considered lower-priority compounds (contingent on further ecotoxicological and environmental fate assessments). The remaining 34 compounds were flagged as low or medium priority. Altogether, this prioritization provided a screening-level (non-definitive) assessment that could be used to focus further resource management and risk assessment activities in the Milwaukee Estuary. Furthermore, by providing detailed methodology and a practical example with real experimental data, we demonstrated that the proposed framework represents a transparent and adaptable approach for prioritizing contaminants in freshwater environments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1276-1296. © 2022 SETAC.

Resampling-based methods for biologists.

Ecological data often violate common assumptions of traditional parametric statistics (e.g., that residuals are Normally distributed, have constant variance, and cases are independent). Modern statistical methods are well equipped to handle these complications, but they can be challenging for non-statisticians to understand and implement. Rather than default to increasingly complex statistical methods, resampling-based methods can sometimes provide an alternative method for performing statistical inference, while also facilitating a deeper understanding of foundational concepts in frequentist statistics (e.g., sampling distributions, confidence intervals, p-values). Using simple examples and case studies, we demonstrate how resampling-based methods can help elucidate core statistical concepts and provide alternative methods for tackling challenging problems across a broad range of ecological applications.

Uncovering state-dependent relationships in shallow lakes using Bayesian latent variable regression.

Ecosystems sometimes undergo dramatic shifts between contrasting regimes. Shallow lakes, for instance, can transition between two alternative stable states: a clear state dominated by submerged aquatic vegetation and a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton. Theoretical models suggest that critical nutrient thresholds differentiate three lake types: highly resilient clear lakes, lakes that may switch between clear and turbid states following perturbations, and highly resilient turbid lakes. For effective and efficient management of shallow lakes and other systems, managers need tools to identify critical thresholds and state-dependent relationships between driving variables and key system features. Using shallow lakes as a model system for which alternative stable states have been demonstrated, we developed an integrated framework using Bayesian latent variable regression (BLR) to classify lake states, identify critical total phosphorus (TP) thresholds, and estimate steady state relationships between TP and chlorophyll a (chl a) using cross-sectional data. We evaluated the method using data simulated from a stochastic differential equation model and compared its performance to k-means clustering with regression (KMR). We also applied the framework to data comprising 130 shallow lakes. For simulated data sets, BLR had high state classification rates (median/mean accuracy >97%) and accurately estimated TP thresholds and state-dependent TP-chl a relationships. Classification and estimation improved with increasing sample size and decreasing noise levels. Compared to KMR, BLR had higher classification rates and better approximated the TP-chl a steady state relationships and TP thresholds. We fit the BLR model to three different years of empirical shallow lake data, and managers can use the estimated bifurcation diagrams to prioritize lakes for management according to their proximity to thresholds and chance of successful rehabilitation. Our model improves upon previous methods for shallow lakes because it allows classification and regression to occur simultaneously and inform one another, directly estimates TP thresholds and the uncertainty associated with thresholds and state classifications, and enables meaningful constraints to be built into models. The BLR framework is broadly applicable to other ecosystems known to exhibit alternative stable states in which regression can be used to establish relationships between driving variables and state variables.

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles.

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer-resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research.