Organic matter processing in a [simulated] offshore wind farm ecosystem in current and future climate and aquaculture scenarios.

The rapid development of blue economy and human use of offshore space triggered the concept of co-location of marine activities and is causing diverse local pressures on the environment. These pressures add to, and interact with, global challenges such as ocean acidification and warming. This study investigates the combined pressures of climate change and the planned co-location of offshore wind farm (OWF) and aquaculture zones on the carbon flow through epifaunal communities inhabiting wind turbines in the North Sea. A 13C-labelled phytoplankton pulse-chase experiment was performed in mesocosms (4 m3) holding undisturbed hard-substrate (HS) communities, natural sediment with infauna, and mobile invertebrate predators. Carbon assimilation was quantified under current and predicted future-climate conditions (+3 °C and -0.3 pH units), as well as a future-climate co-use scenario with blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) aquaculture. Climate change induced an increase in macrofaunal carbon assimilation as well as an organic enrichment of underlying sediments. Dynamic (non-)trophic links between M. edulis and other HS epifauna resulted in shifts among the species contributing most to the phytoplankton-derived carbon flow across climate scenarios. Increased inter- and intraspecific resource competition in the presence of M. edulis aquaculture prevented a large increase in the total assimilation of phytoplankton by HS fauna. Lower individual carbon assimilation rates by both mussels and other epifauna suggest that if filter capacity by HS epifauna would approach renewal by advection/mixing, M. edulis individuals would likely grow to a smaller-than-desired commercial size. In the same scenario, benthic organic carbon mineralisation was significantly boosted due to increased organic matter deposition by the aquaculture set-up. Combining these results with in situ OWF abundance data confirmed M. edulis as the most impactful OWF AHS species in terms of (total) carbon assimilation as well as the described stress responses due to climate change and the addition of bivalve aquaculture.

Climate change effects on the ecophysiology and ecological functioning of an offshore wind farm artificial hard substrate community.

In the effort towards a decarbonised future, the local effects of a proliferating offshore wind farm (OWF) industry add to and interact with the global effects of marine climate change. This study aimed to quantify potential ecophysiological effects of ocean warming and acidification and to estimate and compare the cumulative clearance potential of suspended food items by OWF epifauna under current and future climate conditions. To this end, this study combined ecophysiological responses to ocean warming and acidification of three dominant colonising species on OWF artificial hard substrates (the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, the tube-building amphipod Jassa herdmani and the plumose anemone Metridium senile). In general, mortality, respiration rate and clearance rate increased during 3- to 6-week experimental exposures across all three species, except for M. senile, who exhibited a lower clearance rate in the warmed treatments (+3 °C) and an insensitivity to lowered pH (-0.3 pH units) in terms of survival and respiration rate. Ocean warming and acidification affected growth antagonistically, with elevated temperature being beneficial for M. edulis and lowered pH being beneficial for M. senile. The seawater volume potentially cleared from suspended food particles by this AHS colonising community increased significantly, extending the affected distance around an OWF foundation by 9.2% in a future climate scenario. By using an experimental multi-stressor approach, this study thus demonstrates how ecophysiology underpins functional responses to climate change in these environments, highlighting for the first time the integrated, cascading potential effects of OWFs and climate change on the marine ecosystem.

Anal cancer survival: a socioeconomic analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Squamous cell carcinoma is the most common variant of anal malignancy. Certain disease-related factors have been established in determining survival. These include tumour size, differentiation and nodal involvement. Other factors such as HIV status, human papillomavirus infection, smoking and socioeconomic disparity may have important roles, however few data are available on the UK population. We aim to correlate social deprivation and survival of anal cancer patients at a tertiary centre. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive cases diagnosed with anal squamous cell carcinoma and treated as per local protocol between July 2010 and April 2017 were included. The pathological and demographical details were collected from a prospectively maintained database. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined for each postcode using the Index of Multiple Deprivation decile compiled by local governments in England. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression was used to investigate the effect of different factors on overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 129 patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma over a median follow-up of 43 months were included. Overall survival for the entire patient cohort was 87.7% (95% confidence interval, CI, 82.0-93.7%), 75.5% (95% CI 67.5-84.5%) and 68.9% (95% CI 59.7-79.6%) at one year, three years and five years, respectively. On multivariate analysis, Index of Multiple Deprivation and income do not significantly influence overall survival (p = 0.79, hazard ratio, HR, 1.07; 95% CI 0.61-1.63), (p = 0.99, HR=1.00; 95% CI 0.61-1.63), respectively. Increased risk of death was observed for male sex (p = 0.02, HR=2.80; 95% CI 1.02-5.50) and larger tumour size (p = 0.01, HR=1.64; 95% CI 1.12-2.41). CONCLUSION: In contrast to US studies, there is little difference in survival between the least deprived and most deprived groups. We attribute this to equal access to intensity-modulated radiation therapy-based chemoradiotherapy. Thus, a highly effective treatment made available to all mitigates any survival difference between socioeconomic groups.

The effect of willow fodder feeding on immune cell populations in the blood and milk of late-lactating dairy goats.

In a previous study, we showed that access to willow fodder decreased somatic cell counts (SCC) in the milk of local Mamber goats grazing in brushland at the end of lactation. To test whether the consumption of willow affects the cells of the immune system, Alpine crossbred dairy goats grazing in the same environment were either offered free access to freshly cut willow fodder (W, n = 24) or not (C, n = 24) for 2 weeks. The willow fodder contained 7.5 g/kg DM of salicin. The other major secondary compounds were catechin, myricitrin, hyperin and chlorogenic acid (2.2, 2.6, 1.0 and 0.75 g/kg DM, respectively). Udder health status was determined before the experiment, and each of the two groups included five (W) or six (C) goats defined as infected, as established by microbial cfu in milk, and 19 (W) or 18 (C) non-infected goats. Goats ingested, on average, 600 g of DM from willow (25% of food intake), resulting in minor changes in dietary quality compared to the controls, as established by faecal near-IR spectrometry. Throughout the 2 weeks of experiment, differences between groups in dietary CP contents were minor and affected neither by infection nor by access to willow; the dietary percentage of neutral detergent fibre (NDF) decreased in C and increased in W; dietary acid detergent fibre (ADF) increased; and the dietary tannin contents decreased for both treatments. However, milking performance and milk quality attributes in both W and C goats were similar. Initial SCC and milk neutrophil (cluster of differentiation (CD)18+ and porcine granulocyte (PG)68) cell counts were higher in infected than in non-infected goats; counts decreased significantly in W but not in C uninfected goats. The percentage of CD8+ T-cells increased in all C goats, while in the W group, a significant increase was found only for infected goats. The consumption of willow mitigated an increase in CD8+ in blood and triggered an increase in CD8+ in milk, suggesting an immune-regulatory effect independent of udder status. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a direct nutraceutical effect of fodder ingestion on the immune status of goats.

Toxicity and survival of anal cancer patients treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy.

INTRODUCTION: The definitive treatment of anal cancer with chemoradiotherapy spares abdominoperineal resection for salvage treatment but carries a high burden of toxicity. Intensity-modulated radiation therapy has been implemented to reduce toxicity, reduce treatment breaks and improve survival. However, large and long-term studies are lacking. We aimed to investigate the toxicities and long-term survival of anal cancer patients treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy at James Cook University Hospital, Middlesbrough. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients with squamous cell anal cancer treated at James Cook University Hospital between July 2010 and April 2017. All patients were uniformly treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy-based chemoradiation with curative intent. A subset of these patients was followed-up prospectively by an oncologist for acute and late toxicity. We calculated Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival statistics and compared our results with those of previous trials which used conventional radiotherapy. RESULTS: We studied 132 patients, including a toxicity subset of 64, for a median follow-up time of 43 months (range 3-84 months). Eleven patients (8.3%) underwent salvage abdominoperineal resection. Grade 3+ acute non-haematological, gastrointestinal, genitourinary and dermatological toxicity were found in 56.2%, 12.3%, 0% and 50.7% of the toxicity subset (n = 64). Median treatment duration was 37 days. Overall and colostomy-free survival at five years were 68.3% and 85.3%, respectively. Tumour size (P = 0.006) and age (P = 0.002) predicted shorter overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Intensity-modulated radiation therapy probably reduces acute gastrointestinal and genitourinary toxicity compared with conventional radiotherapy, while resulting in similar overall and colostomy-free survival. We suggest that further dose escalation may improve survival in patients with T3/T4 tumours.

Impact of animal density on cattle nutrition in dry Mediterranean rangelands: a faecal near-IR spectroscopy-aided study.

In the context of determining the sustainable carrying capacity of dry-Mediterranean herbaceous rangelands, we examined the effect of animal density on cattle nutrition, which is fundamental to animal performance and welfare. The effects on dietary components of low (0.56 cows/ha; L) and high (1.11 cows/ha; H) animal densities were monitored for three consecutive years in grazing beef cows. In the dry season (summer and early autumn), cows had free access to N-rich poultry litter (PL) given as a dietary supplement. In each season, near-IR spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to predict the chemical composition of herbage samples (ash, NDF, CP, in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and metabolizable energy (ME) content from IVDMD). Near-IR spectroscopy was applied also to faecal samples to determine the chemical composition of the diet selected by the animal, as well as the contents of ash, NDF and CP in the faeces themselves. A faecal-NIRS equation was applied to estimate the dietary proportion of PL. Seasonal categories were green, dry without PL supplementation and dry with it. We found no effects of animal density on nutrition during the green season but effects were apparent when cows consumed dry pasture. Ash content predicted by faecal NIRS was higher in the diet than in plant samples clipped from pasture, which infers that cows ingested soil. Dietary and faecal ash contents were higher (P<0.05) at the H, implying greater soil intake in these animals. During the dry period, dietary contents of ME were higher in L than in H (P<0.05). Poultry litter supplementation was associated with a marked increase (P<0.01) in dietary and faecal CP contents. Poultry litter represented 0.45 and 0.59 of the diet in treatments L and H, respectively (P<0.05). Consequently, treatment H had higher faecal protein (P<0.05). A tendency of higher dietary protein (P=0.08) and lower dietary NDF (P=0.10) in treatment H was probably related to greater PL ingestion. Given that high and sustained rates of poultry litter consumption are detrimental to animal health, the above results cast doubts on the long-term sustainability of the higher of the animal densities tested. Although it may be sustainable vis-à-vis the vegetation, treatment H may have exceeded the boundaries of what is acceptable for cow health. Chemical information revealed with NIRS can be used to evaluate whether animal densities are compatible with animal health and welfare standards and can play a role in determining the carrying capacity of Mediterranean rangelands.

Overview on legislation and scientific approaches for risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals: the potential EuroMix contribution.

This article reviews the current legislative requirements for risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals via multiple exposure routes, focusing on human health and particularly on food-related chemicals. The aim is to identify regulatory needs and current approaches for this type of risk assessment as well as challenges of the implementation of appropriate and harmonized guidance at international level. It provides an overview of the current legal requirements in the European Union (EU), the United States and Canada. Substantial differences were identified in the legal requirements for risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals and its implementation between EU and non-EU countries and across several regulatory sectors. Frameworks currently proposed and in use for assessing risks from combined exposure to multiple chemicals via multiple routes and different durations of exposure are summarized. In order to avoid significant discrepancies between regulatory sectors or countries, the approach for assessing risks of combined exposure should be based on similar principles for all types of chemicals. OECD and EFSA identified the development of harmonized methodologies for combined exposure to multiple chemicals as a key priority area. The Horizon 2020 project "EuroMix" aims to contribute to the further development of internationally harmonized approaches for such risk assessments by the development of an integrated test strategy using in vitro and in silico tests verified for chemical mixtures based on more appropriate data on potential combined effects. These approaches and testing strategies should be integrated in a scientifically based weight of evidence approach to account for complexity and uncertainty, to improve risk assessment.

Assessing the sustainability of egg production systems in The Netherlands.

Housing systems for laying hens have changed over the years due to increased public concern regarding animal welfare. In terms of sustainability, animal welfare is just one aspect that needs to be considered. Social aspects as well as environmental and economic factors need to be included as well. In this study, we assessed the sustainability of enriched cage, barn, free-range, and organic egg production systems following a predefined protocol. Indicators were selected within the social, environmental, and economic dimensions, after which parameter values and sustainability limits were set for the core indicators in order to quantify sustainability. Uncertainty in the parameter values as well as assigned weights and compensabilities of the indicators influenced the outcome of the sustainability assessment. Using equal weights for the indicators showed that, for the Dutch situation, enriched cage egg production was most sustainable, having the highest score on the environmental dimension, whereas free-range egg production gave the highest score in the social dimension (covering food safety, animal welfare, and human welfare). In the economic dimension both enriched cage egg and organic egg production had the highest sustainability score. When weights were attributed according to stakeholder outputs, individual differences were seen, but the overall scores were comparable to the sustainability scores based on equal weights. The provided method enabled a quantification of sustainability using input from stakeholders to include societal preferences in the overall assessment. Allowing for different weights and compensabilities helps policymakers in communicating with stakeholders involved and provides a weighted decision regarding future housing systems for laying hens.

Hormonal treatment before and after artificial insemination differentially improves fertility in subpopulations of dairy cows during the summer and autumn.

Reduced conception rate (CR) during the hot summer and subsequent autumn is a well-documented phenomenon. Intensive use of cooling systems can improve summer and autumn reproductive performance, but is unable to increase CR to winter and spring levels. We examined whether combined hormonal treatments--to increase follicular turnover before artificial insemination (AI) and progesterone supplementation post-AI--might improve fertility of cooled cows during the summer and autumn. The experiment was conducted from July to November in 3 commercial herds in Israel and included 707 Holstein cows at 50 to 60 d in milk (DIM). Cows were hormonally treated to induce 2 consecutive 9-d cycles, with GnRH administration followed by PGF2α injection 7 d later, followed by an intravaginal insert containing progesterone on d 5 ± 1 post-AI for 14 d. Both untreated controls (n=376) and treated cows (n=331) were inseminated following estrus, and pregnancy was determined by palpation 42 to 50 d post-AI. First-AI CR data revealed a positive interaction between treatment and cows previously diagnosed with postpartum uterine disease [odds ratio (OR) 2.24]. Interaction between treatment and low body condition score tended to increase the probability of first-AI CR (OR 1.95) and increased pregnancy rate at 90 DIM (OR 2.50) and at 120 DIM (OR 1.77). Low milk production increased the probability of being detected in estrus at the end of synchronization within treated cows (OR 1.67), and interacted with treatment to increase probability of pregnancy at 90 DIM (OR 2.39) relative to control counterparts. It is suggested that when administered with efficient cooling, combined hormonal treatment in specific subgroups of cows, that is, those previously diagnosed with postpartum uterine disease or those with low body condition score or low milk yield might improve fertility during the summer and autumn. Integration of such an approach into reproductive management during the hot seasons might improve treatment efficiency and reduce expenses.

Changes in daily leptin, ghrelin and adiponectin profiles following a diet with carbohydrates eaten at dinner in obese subjects.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Our recently published randomised clinical trial evaluated the effect of a low-calorie diet with carbohydrates eaten at dinner. This dietary pattern led to lower hunger scores, and better anthropometric, biochemical and inflammatory outcomes compared to a standard low-calorie diet. In the same study, changes in diurnal secretion patterns of leptin, ghrelin and adiponectin were investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Seventy-eight police officers (body mass index (BMI) > 30) were randomly allocated to experimental (carbohydrates at dinner) or control weight loss diets for 6 months. Sixty-three subjects finished the programme. On days 0, 7, 90 and 180 blood samples and hunger scores were collected every 4 h from 8:00 to 20:00. Hormonal profiles were available for 39. The dietary manipulation led to changes in daylight hormonal profiles in the experimental group. Leptin's secretion curve became convex, with a nadir later in the day (significant difference compared to baseline at morning and evening, p = 0.023, p = 0.021, respectively). Ghrelin's secretion curve became concave, peaking only in the evening hours. Adiponectin's curve was elevated only after the experimental diet (significant difference compared to baseline at afternoon, p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: We propose that a low-calorie diet with carbohydrates eaten at dinner can modulate daytime hormonal profiles. Taken together with our earlier results, we believe this diet regime may prevent mid-day hunger, better support weight loss and improve metabolic outcomes compared to conventional weight loss diets. The trial is registered at controlled-trials.com, ISRCTN37829376, December 2009.

Progesterone supplementation postinsemination improves fertility of cooled dairy cows during the summer.

Reduced fertility of dairy cows during periods of elevated temperature, humidity, or both might be associated with low plasma progesterone concentration. Alleviation of thermal stress by efficient cooling is a prerequisite for improving fertility by hormonal treatment. We examined whether insertion of a controlled intravaginal drug-releasing (CIDR) insert containing progesterone following artificial insemination (AI) would improve summer conception rate. Control (n = 195) and treated (CIDR; n=165) cows, yielding on average 42.3 kg milk/d, were inseminated following estrus detection during the summer (July to October) in 2 commercial dairy herds in Israel. Mean maximal air temperature and relative humidity during the study were 30.2°C and 86%, respectively. All experimental cows were efficiently cooled throughout the study, as confirmed by measuring the body temperature of random cows. Treated cows received a CIDR insert on d 5 ± 1 post-AI for 13 d and pregnancy was confirmed by palpation 45 d post-AI. Plasma progesterone concentration in treated cows was elevated by approximately 1.5 ng/mL. Multiple logistic regressions were used to analyze conception rate. Treatment did not alter the overall conception rate; however, probability of conception increased in CIDR-treated cows with low body condition score (BCS) compared with their control counterparts (53 vs. 27%, respectively). A pronounced increase in probability of conception was recorded in CIDR-treated cows exhibiting both low BCS and postpartum reproductive disorders, compared with their control counterparts (58 vs. 14%, respectively). Exogenous progesterone supplementation on d 5 post-AI for 13 d improves summer fertility of subpopulations of cows exhibiting low BCS and postpartum reproductive disorders. Reproductive management based on specific hormonal treatment of designated subgroups of cows known to derive beneficial effects from it might improve treatment efficiency and reduce expenses.

Immediate and carryover effects of Gram-negative and Gram-positive toxin-induced mastitis on follicular function in dairy cows.

This study compared immediate and carryover effects of mastitis induced by Gram-negative endotoxin (E. coli LPS) and Gram-positive exosecretions (Staph. aureus ex.) on preovulatory follicle function. Synchronized, uninfected cyclic lactating Holstein cows were treated with PGF(2α) on day 6 of the cycle and 36 h later, a dose of either E. coli LPS (n = 8), S. aureus ex. (n = 10), or saline (n = 9) was administered into the mammary gland. Follicular fluids and granulosa cells were aspirated 6 h later from the preovulatory follicles and cows were treated with GnRH. This (cycle 1; immediate effect) was repeated three times (excluding the mammary injections) to induce three 7 d cycles (cycles 2, 3, and 4; carryover effect). E. coli LPS increased body temperature, plasma cortisol concentration, and somatic cell count (SCC), whereas S. aureus ex. induced a minor, subclinical elevation of SCC and slight rise (NS) in body temperature and cortisol concentration. Follicular estradiol, androstenedione, and progesterone concentrations in the E. coli LPS group decreased (P < 0.05) in cycle 1 to about 40%, 13%, and 35%, respectively, of control levels, whereas in the S. aureus ex. group, only estradiol decreased (P < 0.05), to 56% of control concentrations. In cycles 3 and 4, follicular steroids in the E. coli LPS group returned to control concentrations, whereas in the S. aureus ex. group, follicular concentrations of estradiol and androstenedione were lower (P < 0.10) than in controls. In the control group, the concentrations of all follicular and circulating steroids remained stable (P > 0.05) throughout the study. Follicle size was similar in all groups, but the S. aureus ex. treatment caused a decrease (P < 0.02) in the number of follicles developed in cycles 3 and 4. The mRNA expression of steroidogenic genes and LHCGR in the granulosa cells was not affected (P > 0.05) by either treatment during the study, except for a tendency toward lower (P < 0.1) expression in cycle 1 and lower (P < 0.05) expression in cycle 4 of the latter in the S. aureus ex. group. Strain levels, such as SCC and body temperature, following toxin injection correlated well with the magnitude of the immediate decline in follicular steroids. As is typical for Gram-negative clinical events, E. coli LPS-induced acute mastitis caused immediate, short-term, but not long-term impairment of follicular responses, whereas the Gram-positive S. aureus ex.-induced subclinical mastitis exhibited both immediate and carryover disruptive effects on preovulatory follicle function.

Induction of successive follicular waves by gonadotropin-releasing hormone and prostaglandin F(2α) to improve fertility of high-producing cows during the summer and autumn.

Reduced conception rate during the hot summer and subsequent autumn is a well-documented phenomenon. Evaporative cooling systems greatly increase milk production but only slightly improve reproductive performance; hence, additional approaches to improving fertility during the hot season are required. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether the combination of an efficient cooling system and hormonal manipulation (GnRH+PGF(2α)) might improve fertility during the summer and autumn. The experiment was conducted from July to December in 2 commercial herds in Israel and included 382 healthy Holstein cows. Cows (50 to 60 d in milk) were hormonally treated to induce 3 consecutive 9-d follicular waves, with GnRH administration followed by PGF(2α) injection 7 d later. Both control (n=187) and treated (n=195) cows were inseminated following estrus, and pregnancy was determined by palpation 45 d post-insemination. Data revealed an interaction between treatment and primiparous cows, reflected by a 16% increase in conception rate [odds ratio (OR) 2.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96-5.61] and 14% increase in pregnancy rate at 120 d in milk (OR 3.16, 95% CI: 0.93-10.47). Interaction between treatment and high body condition score was reflected by a 14% increase in pregnancy rate at 90 d in milk (OR 3.02, 95% CI: 1.14-7.96). About 60% of the treated cows expressed estrus at the expected time (normal response within 5 d following the third PGF(2α) injection); the remaining 40% that manifested estrus later (late response) had higher milk yield and lower body condition score. Additional analyses indicated that treatment interacted with normal response to raise conception rates and pregnancy rates of primiparous cows and cows with high body condition score. On the other hand, treatment by late-response interaction lowered conception rate during the summer. Implementation of such hormonal treatment in combination with an efficient cooling system may improve reproductive performance of dairy cows during the summer and subsequent autumn.

Naturally occurring mastitis effects on timing of ovulation, steroid and gonadotrophic hormone concentrations, and follicular and luteal growth in cows.

The effects of naturally occurring subclinical chronic or clinical short-term mastitis on time of ovulation, plasma steroid and gonadotropin concentrations, and follicular and luteal dynamics were examined in 73 lactating Holstein cows. Cows were sorted by milk somatic cell count and bacteriological examination into an uninfected group (n=22), a clinical mastitis group (n=9; events occurring 20+/-7 d before the study), and a subclinical chronic mastitis group (n=42). In addition, uninfected and mastitic cows were further sorted by their estrus to ovulation (E-O) interval. About 30% of mastitic cows (mainly subclinical) manifested an extended E-O interval of 56+/-9.2h compared with 28+/-0.8h in uninfected cows and 29+/-0.5h in the other 70% of mastitic cows. In mastitic cows with extended E-O interval, the concentration of plasma estradiol at onset of estrus was lower than that of uninfected cows or mastitic cows that exhibited normal E-O intervals (3.1+/-0.4, 5.8+/-0.5, and 5.5+/-0.5 pg/mL, respectively). The disruptive effect of mastitis on follicular estradiol probably does not involve alterations in gonadotropin secretion because any depressive effects of mastitis on pulsatile LH concentrations were not detected. Cortisol concentrations did not differ among groups. The preovulatory LH surge in mastitic cows with delayed ovulation varied among individuals, being lower, delayed, or with no surge noted compared with the normal LH surge exhibited by uninfected cows or mastitic cows with normal E-O interval (6.8+/-0.7 ng/mL). The diameter of the second-wave dominant follicle was larger and the number of medium follicles was smaller in uninfected and subclinical cows with normal intervals compared with subclinical cows with extended intervals (13.4+/-0.5 vs. 10.9+/-0.9mm, and 3.8+/-0.2 vs. 6.7+/-0.14 follicles, respectively). Mid-luteal progesterone concentrations were similar in uninfected and mastitic cows. These results indicate for the first time that around 30% of cows with subclinical chronic mastitis exhibit delayed ovulation that is associated with low plasma concentrations of estradiol and a low or delayed preovulatory LH surge.

Increased efficacy for in-house validation of real-time PCR GMO detection methods.

To improve the efficacy of the in-house validation of GMO detection methods (DNA isolation and real-time PCR, polymerase chain reaction), a study was performed to gain insight in the contribution of the different steps of the GMO detection method to the repeatability and in-house reproducibility. In the present study, 19 methods for (GM) soy, maize canola and potato were validated in-house of which 14 on the basis of an 8-day validation scheme using eight different samples and five on the basis of a more concise validation protocol. In this way, data was obtained with respect to the detection limit, accuracy and precision. Also, decision limits were calculated for declaring non-conformance (>0.9%) with 95% reliability. In order to estimate the contribution of the different steps in the GMO analysis to the total variation variance components were estimated using REML (residual maximum likelihood method). From these components, relative standard deviations for repeatability and reproducibility (RSD(r) and RSD(R)) were calculated. The results showed that not only the PCR reaction but also the factors 'DNA isolation' and 'PCR day' are important factors for the total variance and should therefore be included in the in-house validation. It is proposed to use a statistical model to estimate these factors from a large dataset of initial validations so that for similar GMO methods in the future, only the PCR step needs to be validated. The resulting data are discussed in the light of agreed European criteria for qualified GMO detection methods.

Probabilistic modelling of exposure doses and implications for health risk characterization: glycoalkaloids from potatoes.

Potatoes are a source of glycoalkaloids (GAs) represented primarily by alpha-solanine and alpha-chaconine (about 95%). Content of GAs in tubers is usually 10-100 mg/kg and maximum levels do not exceed 200 mg/kg. GAs can be hazardous for human health. Poisoning involve gastrointestinal ailments and neurological symptoms. A single intake of >1-3 mg/kg b.w. is considered a critical effect dose (CED). Probabilistic modelling of acute and chronic (usual) exposure to GAs was performed in the Czech Republic, Sweden and The Netherlands. National databases on individual consumption of foods, data on concentration of GAs in tubers (439 Czech and Swedish results) and processing factors were used for modelling. Results concluded that potatoes currently available at the European market may lead to acute intakes >1 mg GAs/kg b.w./day for upper tail of the intake distribution (0.01% of population) in all three countries. 50 mg GAs/kg raw unpeeled tubers ensures that at least 99.99% of the population does not exceed the CED. Estimated chronic (usual) intake in participating countries was 0.25, 0.29 and 0.56 mg/kg b.w./day (97.5% upper confidence limit). It remains unclear if the incidence of GAs poisoning is underreported or if assumptions are the worst case for extremely sensitive persons.

Prevalence of Salmonella in the broiler supply chain in The Netherlands.

This article presents detailed information on Salmonella prevalence throughout the broiler supply chain in The Netherlands, based on results from a national monitoring program. Data were collected during the period 2002 through 2005 and from six sampling points in the chain, covering hatchery up to and including processing. Trends in Salmonella prevalence over years and seasons were analyzed as well as the effect of slaughterhouse capacity on these trends. In addition, correlations between the occurrence of Salmonella at the various sampling points were calculated. The results showed a decreasing trend of Salmonella prevalence from 2002 through 2005 at all sampling points. A seasonal effect on the occurrence of Salmonella was found at the broiler farm, with a higher prevalence during the third and fourth quarter of the year (July through December). The higher the capacity of the slaughterhouse, the lower Salmonella prevalence on arrival at the slaughterhouse and the higher the prevalence at the end of slaughter and the end of processing. The detailed insights obtained in this study could be used to focus future field and experimental research on the prevention and control of Salmonella in the broiler supply chain. Results presented could also be used in risk assessment studies.

Campylobacter prevalence in the broiler supply chain in the Netherlands.

After a national control program, data on Campylobacter prevalence in the broiler supply chain in the Netherlands were gathered for 3 sampling points: departure of broiler farm and arrival and departure of the slaughterhouse. Monitoring data from this control program for 2002 to 2005 were analyzed to find correlations and possible trends in the data. As expected, the greatest correlations were found between adjacent sampling points. A high correlation was expected between number of animals slaughtered and Campylobacter prevalence, because it is assumed that larger companies will have greater hygiene standards due to better implication of food safety regulations. However, statistical analysis showed that there was no clear correlation between company size and Campylobacter prevalence. Data analysis further identified an increasing trend in Campylobacter prevalence at departure of slaughterhouse from 2002 to 2005 with strong seasonality at all 3 sampling points. Measures to control Campylobacter, therefore, need to be reconsidered and possibly intensified to achieve a reduction in Campylobacter positives.

Cumulative risk assessment of the exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate insecticides in the Dutch diet.

We report the acute cumulative exposure to organophosphorus insecticides (OPs) and carbamates in the Dutch population and young children (1-6 years) via the diet. Residue data were derived from Dutch monitoring programmes performed during 2003-2005, and food consumption levels from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 1997/1998. The relative potency factor (RPF) approach was used to cumulate the exposure to OPs and carbamates using acephate and oxamyl as index compound respectively. The exposure was estimated using the probabilistic approach, including unit variability and processing effects. We demonstrate that about 3% of the composite samples analysed for OPs and 0.2% for carbamates contain combinations of these pesticides. The P99.9 of exposure to OPs and carbamates in the total Dutch population equals 23 and 0.64microg/kg BW/d respectively. For young children the corresponding exposure levels are 57 and 1.47microg/kg BW/d. When comparing the P99.9 of exposure with the ARfD, 50 and 9microg/kg BW/d for acephate and oxamyl respectively, there is only a possible health risk for young children. Spinach contributed most to the exposure to OPs in both age groups, followed by orange and mandarin. For carbamates apple (sauce) was the main product determining the exposure.

Analysis of multivariate extreme intakes of food chemicals.

A recently published multivariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT) model is applied to the estimation of population risks associated with dietary intake of pesticides. The objective is to quantify the acute risk of pesticide intake above a threshold and relate it to the consumption of specific primary food products. As an example daily intakes of a pesticide from three foods are considered. The method models and extrapolates simultaneous intakes of pesticide, and estimates probability of exceeding unobserved large intakes. Multivariate analysis was helpful in identifying whether the avoidance of certain food combinations would reduce the likelihood of exceeding a threshold. We argue that the presented method can be an important contribution to exposure assessment studies.