A mass rearing cost calculator for the control of Culex quinquefasciatus in Hawai'i using the incompatible insect technique.

BACKGROUND: Hawai'i's native forest avifauna is experiencing drastic declines due to climate change-induced increases in temperature encroaching on their upper-elevation montane rainforest refugia. Higher temperatures support greater avian malaria infection rates due to greater densities of its primary vector, the southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, and enhance development of the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum. Here we propose the use of the incompatible insect technique (IIT) or the combined IIT/sterile insect technique (SIT) for the landscape-scale (i.e., area-wide) control of Cx. quinquefasciatus, and have developed a calculator to estimate the costs of IIT and IIT/SIT applications at various sites in Hawai'i. METHODS: The overall cost of the infrastructure, personnel, and space necessary to produce incompatible adult males for release is calculated in a unit of ~ 1 million culicid larvae/week. We assessed the rearing costs and need for effective control at various elevations in Hawai'i using a 10:1 overflooding ratio at each elevation. The calculator uses a rate describing the number of culicids needed to control wild-type mosquitoes at each site/elevation, in relation to the number of larval rearing units. This rate is a constant from which other costs are quantified. With minor modifications, the calculator described here can be applied to other areas, mosquito species, and similar techniques. To test the robustness of our calculator, the Kaua'i-specific culicid IIT/SIT infrastructure costs were also compared to costs from Singapore, Mexico, and China using the yearly cost of control per hectare, and purchasing power parity between sites for the cost of 1000 IIT/SIT males. RESULTS: As a proof of concept, we have used the calculator to estimate rearing infrastructure costs for an application of IIT in the Alaka'i Wilderness Reserve on the island of Kaua'i. Our analysis estimated an initial investment of at least ~ $1.16M with subsequent yearly costs of approximately $376K. Projections of rearing costs for control at lower elevations are ~ 100 times greater than in upper elevation forest bird refugia. These results are relatively comparable to those real-world cost estimates developed for IIT/SIT culicid male production in other countries when inflation and purchasing power parity are considered. We also present supplemental examples of infrastructure costs needed to control Cx. quinquefasciatus in the home range of 'i'iwi Drepanis coccinea, and the yellow fever vector Aedes aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: Our cost calculator can be used to effectively estimate the mass rearing cost of an IIT/SIT program. Therefore, the linear relationship of rearing infrastructure to costs used in this calculator is useful for developing a conservative cost estimate for IIT/SIT culicid mass rearing infrastructure. These mass rearing cost estimates vary based on the density of the targeted organism at the application site.

A Magnetic-Bead-Based Mosquito DNA Extraction Protocol for Next-Generation Sequencing.

A recently published DNA extraction protocol using magnetic beads and an automated DNA extraction instrument suggested that it is possible to extract high quality and quantity DNA from a well-preserved individual mosquito sufficient for downstream whole genome sequencing. However, reliance on an expensive automated DNA extraction instrument can be prohibitive for many laboratories. Here, the study provides a budget-friendly magnetic-bead-based DNA extraction protocol, which is suitable for low to medium throughput. The protocol described here was successfully tested using individual Aedes aegypti mosquito samples. The reduced costs associated with high quality DNA extraction will increase the application of high throughput sequencing to resource limited labs and studies.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges.

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Modeling the habitat retreat of the rediscovered endemic Hawaiian moth Omiodes continuatalis Wallengren (Lepidoptera: Crambidae).

Survey data over the last 100 years indicate that populations of the endemic Hawaiian leafroller moth, Omiodes continuatalis (Wallengren) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), have declined, and the species is extirpated from large portions of its original range. Declines have been attributed largely to the invasion of non-native parasitoid species into Hawaiian ecosystems. To quantify changes in O. continuatalis distribution, we applied the maximum entropy modeling approach using Maxent. The model referenced historical (1892-1967) and current (2004-2008) survey data, to create predictive habitat suitability maps which illustrate the probability of occurrence of O. continuatalis based on historical data as contrasted with recent survey results. Probability of occurrence is predicted based on the association of biotic (vegetation) and abiotic (proxy of precipitation, proxy of temperature, elevation) environmental factors with 141 recent and historic survey locations, 38 of which O. continuatalis were collected from. Models built from the historical and recent surveys suggest habitat suitable for O. continuatalis has changed significantly over time, decreasing both in quantity and quality. We reference these data to examine the potential effects of non-native parasitoids as a factor in changing habitat suitability and range contraction for O. continuatalis. Synthesis and applications: Our results suggest that the range of O. continuatalis, an endemic Hawaiian species of conservation concern, has shrunk as its environment has degraded. Although few range shifts have been previously demonstrated in insects, such contractions caused by pressure from introduced species may be important factors in insect extinctions.