Predicting tick-borne encephalitis using Google Trends.

Data generated through public Internet searching offers a promising alternative source of information for monitoring and forecasting of infectious disease. Here future cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were predicted using traditional weekly case reports, both with and without Google Trends data (GTD). Data on the weekly number of acute, confirmed TBE cases in Germany were obtained from the Robert Koch Institute. Data relating to the volume of Internet searching on TBE was downloaded from the Google Trends website. Data were split into training and validation parts. A SARIMA (0,1,1) (1,1,1) [52] model was used to describe the weekly TBE case number time series. Google Trends Data was used as an external regressor in a second, as optimal identified SARIMA (4,1,1) (1,1,1) [52] model. Predictions for the number of future cases were made with both models and compared with the validation dataset. GTD showed a significant correlation with reported weekly case numbers of TBE (p < 0.0001). A comparison of forecasted values with reported ones resulted in an RMSE (residual mean squared error) of 0.71 for the model without Google search values, and an RMSE of 0.70 for the Google Trends values enhanced model. However, difference between predictive performances was not significant (Diebold Mariano test, p-value = 0.14).

Antitherapeutic antibody-mediated hepatotoxicity of recombinant human Apo2L/TRAIL in the cynomolgus monkey.

Apo2L/TRAIL is a member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily and an important inducer of apoptosis. Recombinant human (rhu) Apo2L/TRAIL has been attractive as a potential cancer therapeutic because many types of tumor cells are sensitive to its apoptosis-inducing effects. Nonclinical toxicology studies were conducted to evaluate the safety of rhuApo2L/TRAIL for possible use in humans. The cynomolgus monkey was chosen for this safety assessment based on high protein sequence homology between human and cynomolgus Apo2L/TRAIL and comparable expression of their receptors. Although hepatotoxicity was observed in repeat-dose monkey studies with rhuApo2L/TRAIL, all animals that displayed hepatotoxicity had developed antitherapeutic antibodies (ATAs). The cynomolgus ATAs augmented the cytotoxicity of rhuApo2L/TRAIL but not of its cynomolgus counterpart. Of note, human and cynomolgus Apo2L/TRAIL differ by four amino acids, three of which are surface-exposed. In vivo studies comparing human and cynomolgus Apo2L/TRAIL supported the conclusion that these distinct amino acids served as epitopes for cross-species ATAs, capable of crosslinking rhuApo2L/TRAIL and thus triggering hepatocyte apoptosis. We describe a hapten-independent mechanism of immune-mediated, drug-related hepatotoxicity - in this case - associated with the administration of a human recombinant protein in monkeys. The elucidation of this mechanism enabled successful transition of rhuApo2L/TRAIL into human clinical trials.

Host selection by the Louse Fly Crataerina pallida, an avian nest ectoparasite of the Common Swift Apus apus.

Preferences by parasites for particular hosts may have important implications for the functioning of host-parasite systems, however, this parasitic life-history trait remains little studied. No detrimental effect of Louse Fly Crataerina pallida parasitism has been found on Common Swift Apus apus nestling hosts. Host selection choices may be mediating the effect this parasite has and account for this apparent avirulence. Two aspects of parasite host selection were studied at a breeding colony of Common Swifts during 2008; (1) intra-brood differences in C. pallida parasitism were studied to determine the influence of nestling rank, (2) differences in male and female C. pallida parasitism were investigated, as they may result in varying costs of parasitism to hosts. C. pallida populations were found to preferentially parasitize higher rather than lower ranking nestlings within broods of both two and three chicks. Greater proportions of females were seen upon nestlings than at the nest, and upon higher ranking than lower ranking nestlings within broods. These results indicate that host selection occurs and this may thus account for the lack of parasitic virulence reported within this host-parasite system.

Temperature affects emergence of Crataerina pallida (Diptera: Hippoboscidae).

Despite knowledge of parasite biology being essential for host-parasite system functioning to be understood, the life histories of many parasites remain little studied. One example being the hippoboscid Crataerina pallida (Olivier in Latreille, 1812) (Diptera: Hippoboscidae), a nest ectoparasite of the common swift, Apus apus L. (Aves: Apodidae). The factors influencing adult parasite emergence remain unclear. Whether temperature affects emergence was studied by exposing overwintering pupae to differing temperature regimes. At higher temperatures, greater numbers of adults emerged. This indicates that adult hatching is temperature mediated and may be enhanced by host presence. The relationship between C. pallida and their hosts is thus close.

The common swift louse fly, Crataerina pallida: an ideal species for studying host-parasite interactions.

Little is known of the life-history of many parasitic species. This hinders a full understanding of host-parasitic interactions. The common swift louse fly, Crataerina pallida Latreille (Diptera: Hippoboscidae), an obligate haematophagous parasite of the Common Swift, Apus apus Linnaeus 1758, is one such species. No detrimental effect of its parasitism upon the host has been found. This may be because too little is known about C. pallida ecology, and therefore detrimental effects are also unknown. This is a review of what is known about the life-history of this parasite, with the aim of promoting understanding of its ecology. New, previously unreported observations about C. pallida made from personal observations at a nesting swift colony are described. Unanswered questions are highlighted, which may aid understanding of this host-parasite system. C. pallida may prove a suitable model species for the study of other host-parasite relationships.