Geographical and seasonal variation in iodine content of cow's milk in the UK and consequences for the consumer´s supply.

BACKGROUND: Dairy products provide a crucial source of dietary iodine for the majority of the UK population, contributing approximately 30-40 % of daily intake. Fluctuations in the iodine content of purchased milk both seasonally and annually implies potential fragility of iodine supply likely through fluctuating supplementation practices in cow herds. We set out to establish the level of national variation in herds and identify factors which might impact milk iodine content. METHODS: Milk samples were obtained from 98 herds across the UK via the National Milk Laboratories in August and December 2016. Iodine concentration of samples was measured using ICP-MS. Milk samples and feed intake data were additionally taken from 22 cows from the University of Nottingham (UON) dairy herd. RESULTS: There was considerable variation in milk iodine content from < 0.012 (Limit of Detection) to 1558 µg L-1, with a summer median of 197 µg L-1 and winter median 297 µg L-1. Overall, winter values were higher than summer counterparts (P < 0.001) and this held true for samples taken from the North West (P = 0.002) and South West (P = 0.006) but not for other regions studied. Data from the UON herd showed a negative relationship between iodine content and milk yield (P = 0.03) and we found that milk iodine content varied considerably despite apparently similar iodine intakes. CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences in milk iodine concentration between summer and winter suggests that feeding practices are far from uniform across the country. The negative association observed between iodine concentration and milk yield in UON samples, suggests that reduced summer values may be influenced by dilution in addition to seasonal differences in concentrate feed provision.

Methodology and preliminary results of a systematic literature review of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis.

A systematic review was conducted to identify studies with data for statistical meta-analyses of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Members of a working group (WG) developed and tested search criteria and developed a standardised two-stage review process, to identify primary studies with numerator and denominator data for test performance and an agreed range of covariate data. No limits were applied to year, language, region or type of test in initial searches of electronic databases. In stage 1, titles and available abstracts were reviewed. References that complied with stage 1 selection criteria were reviewed in entirety and agreed data were extracted from references that complied with stage 2 selection criteria. At stage 1, 9782 references were reviewed and 261 (2.6%) passed through to stage 2 where 215 English language references were each randomly allocated to two of 18 WG reviewers and 46 references in other languages were allocated to native speakers. Agreement regarding eligibility between reviewers of the same reference at stage 2 was moderate (Kappa statistic = 0.51) and a resolution procedure was conducted. Only 119 references (published 1934-2009) were identified with eligible performance estimates for one or more of 14 different diagnostic test types; despite a comprehensive search strategy and the global impact of bTB. Searches of electronic databases for diagnostic test performance data were found to be nonspecific with regard to identifying references with diagnostic test Se or Sp data. Guidelines for the content of abstracts to research papers reporting diagnostic test performance are presented. The results of meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of the tests, and of an evaluation of the methodological quality of the source references, are presented in accompanying papers (Nuñez-Garcia et al., 2017; Downs et al., 2017).

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland.

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.

Evaluation of the methodological quality of studies of the performance of diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis using QUADAS.

There has been little assessment of the methodological quality of studies measuring the performance (sensitivity and/or specificity) of diagnostic tests for animal diseases. In a systematic review, 190 studies of tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle (published 1934-2009) were assessed by at least one of 18 reviewers using the QUADAS (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies) checklist adapted for animal disease tests. VETQUADAS (VQ) included items measuring clarity in reporting (n = 3), internal validity (n = 9) and external validity (n = 2). A similar pattern for compliance was observed in studies of different diagnostic test types. Compliance significantly improved with year of publication for all items measuring clarity in reporting and external validity but only improved in four of the nine items measuring internal validity (p < 0.05). 107 references, of which 83 had performance data eligible for inclusion in a meta-analysis were reviewed by two reviewers. In these references, agreement between reviewers' responses was 71% for compliance, 32% for unsure and 29% for non-compliance. Mean compliance with reporting items was 2, 5.2 for internal validity and 1.5 for external validity. The index test result was described in sufficient detail in 80.1% of studies and was interpreted without knowledge of the reference standard test result in only 33.1%. Loss to follow-up was adequately explained in only 31.1% of studies. The prevalence of deficiencies observed may be due to inadequate reporting but may also reflect lack of attention to methodological issues that could bias the results of diagnostic test performance estimates. QUADAS was a useful tool for assessing and comparing the quality of studies measuring the performance of diagnostic tests but might be improved further by including explicit assessment of population sampling strategy.

Changes in perceptions and motivators that influence the implementation of on-farm Salmonella control measures by pig farmers in England.

This study presents British farmers' perception of, and barriers to, implementing Salmonella control on pig farms. Four farms that had implemented interventions and their 33 close contacts (known to the intervention farmers) took part in interviews before (phase 1) and after (phase 2) intervention trials to assess the difference in perception over time. Their results were compared against those from nine randomly selected control farms. The hypothesis was that farms implementing interventions whether or not successful, would influence their close contacts' opinion over time. Based on a 'pathway to disease control' model, three intrinsic factors known to influence motivation - attitudes, social norms and self-efficacy - were evaluated. Farmers mentioned that successful interventions on a farm would attract their attention. The use of an appropriate communication strategy is therefore recommended to stimulate farmers' intent to implement control measures. Both before and after the intervention trials, all farmers had a positive attitude towards Salmonella control and felt that their peers and authorities were supportive of controlling Salmonella on farms. In phase 2, however, farmers were more likely to want to share the burden of control with other stakeholders along the food chain and their belief in self-efficacy had weakened. Whilst social norms were not associated with an intention to take action on control, a positive attitude towards Salmonella control and a belief in self-efficacy were more likely to result in an intent to control. In phase 2, farmers with an intent to implement an intervention appeared to have a greater, but not significant positive belief in self-efficacy (p=0.108). This study confirmed that farmers recognised their responsibility for controlling Salmonella in pork - even though their confidence in their ability to control Salmonella decreased over time - and believed that responsibility should be shared with the rest of the production chain. It showed that farmers trusted their veterinarian as a source of advice to guide them during the process of implementing change, though an increase in farms' Salmonella seroprevalence score (Zoonosis National Control Programme (ZNCP) score) especially for those with a low ZNCP score was also likely to influence their behaviour. Getting concrete feedback from customers or a tangible benefit from their action was a strong incentive especially for farms with a ZNCP score higher than 50%. The study also revealed a need to validate which measures are effective as farmers did not perceive that the current advised interventions were worth the additional effort.

Inventory of veterinary syndromic surveillance initiatives in Europe (Triple-S project): current situation and perspectives.

Within the current context that favours the emergence of new diseases, syndromic surveillance (SyS) appears increasingly more relevant tool for the early detection of unexpected health events. The Triple-S project (Syndromic Surveillance Systems in Europe), co-financed by the European Commission, was launched in September 2010 for a three year period to promote both human and animal health SyS in European countries. Objectives of the project included performing an inventory of current and planned European animal health SyS systems and promoting knowledge transfer between SyS experts. This study presents and discusses the results of the Triple-S inventory of European veterinary SyS initiatives. European SyS systems were identified through an active process based on a questionnaire sent to animal health experts involved in SyS in Europe. Results were analyzed through a descriptive analysis and a multiple factor analysis (MFA) in order to establish a typology of the European SyS initiatives. Twenty seven European SyS systems were identified from twelve countries, at different levels of development, from project phase to active systems. Results of this inventory showed a real interest of European countries for SyS but also highlighted the novelty of this field. This survey highlighted the diversity of SyS systems in Europe in terms of objectives, population targeted, data providers, indicators monitored. For most SyS initiatives, statistical analysis of surveillance results was identified as a limitation in using the data. MFA results distinguished two types of systems. The first one belonged to the private sector, focused on companion animals and had reached a higher degree of achievement. The second one was based on mandatory collected data, targeted livestock species and is still in an early project phase. The exchange of knowledge between human and animal health sectors was considered useful to enhance SyS. In the same way that SyS is complementary to traditional surveillance, synergies between human and animal health SyS could be an added value, most notably to enhance timeliness, sensitivity and help interpreting non-specific signals.

An integrated process and management tools for ranking multiple emerging threats to animal health.

The UK's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs supports the use of systematic tools for the prioritisation of known and well defined animal diseases to facilitate long and medium term planning of surveillance and disease control activities. The recognition that emerging events were not covered by the existing disease-specific approaches led to the establishment of the Veterinary Risk Group (VRG), constituted of government officials, and supporting structures such as the Risk Management Cycle and the Emerging Threat Highlight Report (ETHiR), to facilitate the identification, reporting and assessment of emerging threats to UK's animal health. Since its inception in November 2009 to the end of February 2011, the VRG reviewed 111 threats and vulnerabilities (T&V) reported through ETHiR. In July 2010 a decision support system (DSS) based on multi-criteria-decision-analysis (MCDA) improved ETHiR to allow the systematic prioritisation of emerging T&V. The DSS allows the regular ranking of emerging T&V by calculating a set of measurement indices related to the actual impact, possible impact on public perception and level of available capabilities associated with every T&V. The systematic characterisation of the processes leading to the assessment of T&V by the VRG has led to a consistent, auditable and transparent approach to the identification and assessment of emerging risks. The regular use of MCDA to manage a portfolio of emerging risks represents a different and novel application of MCDA in a health related context.

Epidemiology of extended spectrum beta-lactamase E. coli (CTX-M-15) on a commercial dairy farm.

The epidemiology of an extended spectrum beta-lactamase Escherichia coli (CTX-M-15) was observed and described on a commercial dairy farm located in the United Kingdom. During 2008 longitudinal sampling of faecal pat samples from different cattle groups comprising milking and non-milking cows, calving cows, calves, and the environment was carried out. The proportion of CTX-M-15 E. coli positive samples was significantly (p<0.0.01) higher in milking cows (30.3%, CI(95%) 26.8; 33.8) than in the herd as a whole (17.0%, CI(95%) 14.9; 19.0). In 2008 95.6% of sampled calves tested positive for CTX-M-15 E. coli at two days of age. A more detailed investigation in 2009 revealed that cows and heifers were approximately eight times more likely to test positive in the 10 days after calving than the 9 days before (OR 7.6, CI(95%) 2.32; 24.9). The CTX-M15 E. coli was also readily isolated from the immediate calving pen environment, including the water troughs. A cyclic pattern was apparent where cows immediately after calving and as high yielders were highly positive, but where the prevalence decreased during the dry period. The increased prevalence of the CTX-M-15 E. coli in certain cattle groups and farm environments including calving pens suggested that husbandry, antimicrobial usage and hygiene may play a significant role on a farm with regards to the epidemiology of CTX-M-15. This may offer a practical opportunity to reduce further dissemination through good practice and hygiene around calving.

Perceptions, circumstances and motivators that influence implementation of zoonotic control programs on cattle farms.

The implementation of disease control programs on farms requires an act of behavioral change. This study presents a theoretical framework from behavioral science, combined with basic epidemiological principles to investigate and explain the control of zoonotic agents on cattle farms. A pathway to disease control model was adapted from existing models in behavioral science and human medicine. Field data was used to demonstrate the validity of the model to identify and explain motivational factors for implementation of disease control programs among English and Welsh cattle farmers. The field data consisted of interviews conducted with 43 farmers, which were analyzed to investigate the farmers' perception of responsibility for safe cattle produce as well as the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers that inhibited the implementation of a zoonotic control program on their farms. The model was used to illustrate barriers affecting the implementation process and to classify farmers according to their current level of zoonotic control at each stage within the model. Ordinal multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the motivators associated with different levels of implementation. Younger farmers and/or larger herds were more likely to place financial responsibility upon the industry rather than government and all but two farmers accepted a social responsibility for food safety within cattle production. In general, attitudes towards zoonotic control were positive, but approximately half the farmers showed no intent to control and were inhibited by non-supportive social norms and/or a lack of belief in self-efficacy. The remaining farmers showed intent to control, but had not implemented any structured control program due to external barriers including lack of knowledge and both cultural and economic pressure from society and industry. The farmers with no intent to adopt control measures identified their private veterinarian as the preferred motivator, whereas consumer-demand and financial rewards or penalties were significantly associated with farmers who intended to control.

Farm practices to control E. coli O157 in young cattle--a randomised controlled trial.

A randomised controlled trial was used to investigate the effect of three complex management intervention packages to reduce the burden of E. coli O157 in groups of young-stock on cattle farms in England and Wales. All intervention farms were assigned measures to avoid buying in new animals and having direct contact or sharing water sources with other cattle. Furthermore, package A (7 farms) aimed to keep a clean environment and closed groups of young-stock; package B (14 farms) aimed for improved water and feed hygiene, whilst package C was assigned both A and B. The control farms (26 farms) were asked not to alter their practices. Farms, which were assigned intervention package A, exhibited a 48% reduction in E. coli O157 burden over the 4.5 months (average) of observation, compared to 18% on the control farms. The effect of package A compared to the control farms in a crude intention-to-treat model was RR = 0.26 (p=0.122). When the risk ratio was adjusted for actual application of the different measures, the effect of intervention package A became stronger and statistically significant (RR = 0.14 p=0.032). Statistical evidence (p< 0.05) showed that dry bedding and maintaining animals in the same groups were the most important measures within the package and weak evidence (p< 0.1) showed that a closed herd policy and no contact with other cattle may also be of importance. Compliance with the other measures in package A had no influence on the effect of the package. No evidence of effect of the other two intervention packages was found.

Identification of management risk factors for VTEC O157 in young-stock in England and Wales.

We conducted a cross-sectional study on 255 cattle farms in England and Wales to identify risk factors for verocytotoxin-producing E. coli O157 (VTEC). Exposure variables were collected at the levels of the farm and of the group of young-stock within the farms. On each farm a group of young-stock (6-18 months of age) was sampled to establish VTEC status. In our multiple logistic regression, farm VTEC status was associated with access to springs (OR: 0.31, CI95%: 0.12, 0.78) and assessing the wetness of the bedding material less frequently than daily (OR: 3.89 CI95%: 1.5, 10.2). At group-level we found no associated risk factors for animals housed outdoors in fields. Significant for groups housed in pens were wet bedding (wet OR: 3.43, CI95%: 1.3, 9.4; very wet OR: 4.24, CI95%: 1.2, 14.6), number of animals in the group (10-15 OR: 2.72, CI95%: 0.75, 9.9, 16-24, OR: 3.78, CI95%: 1.2, 12.3; >25 OR: 3.78, CI95%: 1.1, 12.7) and feeding straw (OR: 2.29, CI95%: 1.2, 5.5).

A quantitative assessment of the risks from illegally imported meat contaminated with foot and mouth disease virus to Great Britain.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.