Cost-effectiveness of interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis in 128 countries: a meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted for many interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis, but they have not been conducted for all interventions that are currently recommended in all countries. To support national decision makers in the effective allocation of resources, we conducted a meta-regression analysis of published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for interventions for these causes, and predicted ICERs for 14 recommended interventions for Global Fund-eligible countries. METHODS: In the meta-regression analysis, we used data from the Tufts University Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (Boston, MA, USA) Cost-Effectiveness Registries (the CEA Registry beginning in 1976 and the Global Health CEA registry beginning in 1995) up to Jan 1, 2018. To create analysis files, we standardised and mapped the data, extracted additional data from published articles, and added variables from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Then we selected ratios for interventions with a minimum of two published articles and three published ICERs that mapped to one of five GBD causes (HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, drug-susceptible tuberculosis, or multi-drug resistant tuberculosis), and to a GBD country; reported a currency year during or after 1990; and for which the comparator intervention was defined as no intervention, standard of care, or placebo. Our meta-regression analysis used all available data on 25 eligible interventions, and quantified the association between ICERs and factors at country level and intervention level. We used a five-stage statistical model that was developed to synthesise evidence on cost-effectiveness analyses, and we adapted it for smaller sample sizes by grouping interventions by cause and type (ie, prevention, diagnostics, and treatment). Using the meta-regression parameters we predicted country-specific median ICERs, IQRs, and 95% uncertainty intervals in 2019 US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for 14 currently recommended interventions. We report ICERs in league tables with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and country-specific thresholds. FINDINGS: The sample for the analysis was 1273 ratios from 144 articles, of which we included 612 ICERs from 106 articles in our meta-regression analysis. We predicted ICERs for antiretroviral therapy for prevention for two age groups and pregnant women, pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV for two risk groups, four malaria prevention interventions, antenatal syphilis screening, two tuberculosis prevention interventions, the Xpert tuberculosis test, and chemotherapy for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. At the country level, ranking of interventions and number of interventions with a predicted median ICER below the country-specific threshold varied greatly. For instance, median ICERs for six of 14 interventions were below the country-specific threshold in Sudan, whereas 12 of 14 were below the country-specific threshold in Peru. Antenatal syphilis screening had the lowest median ICER among all 14 interventions in 81 (63%) of 128 countries, ranging from $3 (IQR 2-4) per DALY averted in Equatorial Guinea to $3473 (2244-5222) in Ukraine. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV/AIDS for men who have sex with men had the highest median ICER among all interventions in 116 (91%) countries, ranging from $2326 (1077-4567) per DALY averted in Lesotho to $53 559 (23 841-108 534) in Maldives. INTERPRETATION: Country-specific league tables highlight the interventions that offer better value per DALY averted, and can support decision making at a country level that is more tailored to available resources than GDP per capita and country-specific thresholds. Meta-regression is a promising method to synthesise cost-effectiveness analysis results and transfer them across settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Can a Clinic-Based Community Health Worker Intervention Buffer the Negative Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health and Well-Being of Low-Income Families during Early Childhood.

We examined changes in self-reported mental health, physical health, and emotional support among low-income parents with children ages 0-2 years old from pre-pandemic to pandemic periods and compared changes in parental health among parents who did versus did not have access to a clinic-based community health worker intervention supporting parents at early childhood preventive care visits. We utilized longitudinal parent survey data from pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 time periods from both the intervention and control arms of an existing cohort of parents enrolled in a 10-clinic cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT). At enrollment (pre-pandemic) and 12-month follow-up (pandemic), participants reported on mental health, physical health, and emotional support using PROMIS measures (n = 401). During the pre-pandemic portion, control and intervention group parents had similar mean T-scores for mental health, physical health, and emotional support. At follow-up, mean T-scores for mental health, physical health, and emotional support decreased across both control and intervention groups, but intervention group parents had smaller declines in mental health T-scores (p = 0.005). Our findings indicate that low-income parents with young children suffered significant declines in mental and physical health and emotional support during the pandemic and that the decline in mental health may have been buffered by the community health worker intervention.

Community Health Workers in Early Childhood Well-Child Care for Medicaid-Insured Children: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: An intervention model (the Parent-focused Redesign for Encounters, Newborns to Toddlers; the PARENT intervention) for well-child care that integrates a community health worker into preventive care services may enhance early childhood well-child care. Objective: To examine the effectiveness of the PARENT intervention vs usual care for parents with children younger than 2 years of age. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cluster randomized clinical trial was conducted between March 2019 and July 2022. Of the 1283 parents with a child younger than 2 years of age presenting for a well-child visit at 1 of the 10 clinic sites (2 federally qualified health centers in California and Washington) approached for trial participation, 937 were enrolled. Intervention: Five clinics implemented the PARENT intervention, which is a team-based approach to care that uses a community health worker in the role of a coach (ie, health educator) as part of the well-child care team to provide comprehensive preventive services, and 5 clinics provided usual care. Main Outcomes and Measures: There were 2 primary outcomes: score for parent-reported receipt of recommended anticipatory guidance during well-child visits (score range, 0-100) and emergency department (ED) use (proportion with ≥2 ED visits). The secondary outcomes included psychosocial screening, developmental screening, health care use, and parent-reported experiences of care. Results: Of the 937 parents who were enrolled, 914 remained eligible to participate (n = 438 in the intervention group and n = 476 in the usual care group; 95% were mothers, 73% reported Latino ethnicity, and 63% reported an annual income <$30 000). The majority (855/914; 94%) of the children (mean age, 4.4 months at parental enrollment) were insured by Medicaid. Of the 914 parents who remained eligible and enrolled, 785 (86%) completed the 12-month follow-up interview. Parents of children treated at the intervention clinics (n = 375) reported receiving more anticipatory guidance than the parents of children treated at the usual care clinics (n = 407) (mean score, 73.9 [SD, 23.4] vs 63.3 [SD, 27.8], respectively; adjusted absolute difference, 11.01 [95% CI, 6.44 to 15.59]). There was no difference in ED use (proportion with ≥2 ED visits) between the intervention group (n = 376) and the usual care group (n = 407) (37.2% vs 36.1%, respectively; adjusted absolute difference, 1.2% [95% CI, -5.5% to 8.0%]). The effects of the intervention on the secondary outcomes included a higher amount of psychosocial assessments performed, a greater number of parents who had developmental or behavioral concerns elicited and addressed, increased attendance at well-child visits, and greater parental experiences with the care received (helpfulness of care). Conclusions and Relevance: The intervention resulted in improvements in the receipt of preventive care services vs usual care for children insured by Medicaid by incorporating community health workers in a team-based approach to early childhood well-child care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03797898.

Health Care Spending Effectiveness: Estimates Suggest That Spending Improved US Health From 1996 To 2016.

Health care spending effectiveness is the ratio of an increase in spending per case of illness or injury to an increase in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per case. We report US spending-effectiveness ratios, using comprehensive estimates of health care spending from the Disease Expenditure Project and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We decomposed changes over time to estimate spending per case and DALYs averted per case, controlling for changes in population size, age-sex structure, and incidence or prevalence of cases. Across all causes of health care spending and disease burden, median spending was US$114,339 per DALY averted between 1996 and 2016. Twelve of thirty-four causes with the highest spending or highest burden had median spending that was less than $100,000 per DALY averted. Using decomposition results, we calculated an outcome-adjusted health care price index by assigning a dollar value to DALYs averted per case. When we used $100,000 as the dollar value per DALY averted, prices increased by 4 percent more than the broader economy; when we used $150,000 per DALY averted, relative prices fell by 13 percent, meaning that much of the growth in health care spending over time has purchased health improvements.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in children under five years of age in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus caused an estimated 151,714 deaths from diarrhea among children under 5 in 2019. To reduce mortality, countries are considering adding rotavirus vaccination to their routine immunization program. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) to inform these decisions are not available in every setting, and where they are, results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, especially about vaccine efficacy. We used advances in meta-regression methods and estimates of vaccine efficacy by location to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for rotavirus vaccination in 195 countries. METHODS: Beginning with Tufts University CEA and Global Health CEA registries we used 515 ICERs from 68 articles published through 2017, extracted 938 additional one-way sensitivity analyses, and excluded 33 ICERs for a sample of 1,418. We used a five-stage, mixed-effects, Bayesian metaregression framework to predict ICERs, and logistic regression model to predict the probability that the vaccine was cost-saving. For both models, covariates were vaccine characteristics including efficacy, study methods, and country-specific rotavirus disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. All results are reported in 2017 United States dollars. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy, vaccine cost, GDP per capita and rotavirus DALYs were important drivers of variability in ICERs. Globally, the median ICER was $2,289 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): $147-$38,993) and ranged from $85 per DALY averted (95% UI: $13-$302) in Central African Republic to $70,599 per DALY averted (95% UI: $11,030-$263,858) in the United States. Among countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, the mean ICER was $255 per DALY averted (95% UI: $39-$918), and among countries eligible for the PAHO revolving fund, the mean ICER was $2,464 per DALY averted (95% UI: $382-$3,118). CONCLUSION: Our findings incorporate recent evidence that vaccine efficacy differs across locations, and support expansion of rotavirus vaccination programs, particularly in countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance.

Impact of major disease outbreaks in the third millennium on adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health and rights in low and/or middle-income countries: a systematic scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR) of young people continue to present a high burden and remain underinvested. This is more so in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), where empirical evidence reveals disruption of SRHR maintenance, need for enhancement of programmes, resources and services during pandemics. Despite the importance of the subject, there is no published review yet combining recent disease outbreaks such as (H1N1/09, Zika, Ebola and SARS-COV-2) to assess their impact on adolescents and youth SRHR in LMICs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will adopt a four-step search to reach the maximum possible number of studies. In the first step, we will carry out a limitedpreliminary search in databases for getting relevant keywords (appendix 1). Second, we will search in four databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Embase and PsycINFO. The search would begin from the inception of the first major outbreak in 2009 (H1N1/09) up to the date of publication of the protocol in early 2022. We will search databases using related keywords, screen title & abstract and review full texts of the selected titles to arrive at the list of eligible studies. In the third stage, we will check their eligibility to the included article's reference list. In the fourth stage, we will check the citations of included papers in phase 2 to complete our study selection. We will include all types of original studies and without any language restriction in our final synthesis. Our review results will be charted for each pandemic separately and include details pertaining to authors, year, country, region of the study, study design, participants (disaggregated by age and gender), purpose and report associated SRHR outcomes. The review will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guideline (PRISMA-ScR). PATIENT AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT: Patients or public were not involved in this study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical assessment is not required for this study. The results of the study will be presented in peer-reviewed publications and conferences on adolescent SRHR.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a well-known, but resource intensive, method for comparing the costs and health outcomes of health interventions. To build on available evidence, researchers are developing methods to transfer CEA across settings; previous methods do not use all available results nor quantify differences across settings. We conducted a meta-regression analysis of published CEAs of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to quantify the effects of factors at the country, intervention, and method-level, and predict incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for HPV vaccination in 195 countries. We used 613 ICERs reported in 75 studies from the Tufts University's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Global Health CEA Registry, and extracted an additional 1,215 one-way sensitivity analyses. A five-stage, mixed-effects meta-regression framework was used to predict country-specific ICERs. The probability that HPV vaccination is cost-saving in each country was predicted using a logistic regression model. Covariates for both models included methods and intervention characteristics, and each country's cervical cancer burden and gross domestic product per capita. ICERs are positively related to vaccine cost, and negatively related to cervical cancer burden. The mean predicted ICER for HPV vaccination is 2017 US$4,217 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval (UI): US$773-13,448) globally, and below US$800 per DALY averted in 64 countries. Predicted ICERs are lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with a population-weighted mean ICER across 46 countries of US$706 per DALY averted (95% UI: $130-2,245), and across five countries of US$489 per DALY averted (95% UI: $90-1,557), respectively. Meta-regression analyses can be conducted on CEA, where one-way sensitivity analyses are used to quantify the effects of factors at the intervention and method-level. Building on all published results, our predictions support introducing and expanding HPV vaccination, especially in countries that are eligible for subsidized vaccines from GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, and Pan American Health Organization.

A Parent Coach-Led Model of Well-Child Care for Young Children in Low-Income Communities: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: The Parent-focused Redesign for Encounters, Newborns to Toddlers (PARENT) intervention was created as a team-based approach to well-child care (WCC) that relies on a health educator (Parent Coach) to provide the bulk of WCC services, address specific needs faced by families in low-income communities, and decrease reliance on the clinician as the primary provider of WCC services. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the impact of PARENT using a cluster randomized controlled trial. METHODS: This study tested the effectiveness of PARENT at 10 clinical sites in 2 federally qualified health centers in Tacoma, Washington, and Los Angeles, California. We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial that included 916 families with children aged ≤12 months at the time of the baseline survey. Parents will be followed up at 6 and 12 months after enrollment. The Parent Coach, the main element of PARENT, provides anticipatory guidance, psychosocial screening and referral, developmental and behavioral surveillance, screening, and guidance at each WCC visit. The coach is supported by parent-focused previsit screening and visit prioritization, a brief, problem-focused clinician encounter for a physical examination and any concerns that require a clinician's attention, and an automated text message parent reminder and education service for periodic, age-specific messages to reinforce key health-related information recommended by Bright Futures national guidelines. We will examine parent-reported quality of care (receipt of nationally recommended WCC services, family-centeredness of care, and parental experiences of care), and health care use (WCC, urgent care, emergency department, and hospitalizations), conduct a cost analysis, and conduct a separate time-motion study of clinician time allocation to assess efficiency. We will also collect data on exploratory measures of parent-and parenting-focused outcomes. Our primary outcomes were receipt of anticipatory guidance and emergency department use. RESULTS: Participant recruitment began in March 2019. After recruitment, 6- and 12-month follow-up surveys will be completed. As of August 30, 2021, we enrolled a total of 916 participants. CONCLUSIONS: This large pragmatic trial of PARENT in partnership with federally qualified health centers will assess its utility as an evidence-based and financially sustainable model for the delivery of preventive care services to children in low-income communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03797898; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03797898. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/27054.

Variation in Health Care Access and Quality Among US States and High-Income Countries With Universal Health Insurance Coverage.

Importance: Based on mortality estimates for 32 causes of death that are amenable to health care, the US health care system did not perform as well as other high-income countries, scoring 88.7 out of 100 on the 2016 age-standardized Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index. Objective: To compare US age-specific HAQ scores with those of high-income countries with universal health insurance coverage and compare scores among US states with varying insurance coverage. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factor study results for cause-specific mortality with adjustments for behavioral and environmental risks to estimate the age-specific HAQ indices. The US national age-specific HAQ scores were compared with high-income peers (Canada, western Europe, high-income Asia Pacific countries, and Australasia) in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016, and the 2016 scores among US states were also analyzed. The Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey was used to estimate insurance coverage and the median income per person by age and state. Age-specific HAQ scores for each state in 2010 and 2016 were regressed based on models with age fixed effects and age interaction with insurance coverage, median income, and year. Data were analyzed from April to July 2018 and July to September 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The age-specific HAQ indices were the outcome measures. Results: In 1990, US age-specific HAQ scores were similar to peers but increased less from 1990 to 2016 than peer locations for ages 15 years or older. For example, for ages 50 to 54 years, US scores increased from 77.1 to 82.1 while high-income Asia Pacific scores increased from 71.6 to 88.2. In 2016, several states had scores comparable with peers, with large differences in performance across states. For ages 15 years or older, the age-specific HAQ scores were 85 or greater for all ages in 3 states (Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Minnesota) and 75 or less for at least 1 age category in 6 states. In regression analysis estimates with state-fixed effects, insurance coverage coefficients for ages 20 to 24 years were 0.059 (99% CI, 0.006-0.111); 45 to 49 years, 0.088 (99% CI, 0.009-0.167); and 50 to 54 years, 0.101 (99% CI, 0.013-0.189). A 10% increase in insurance coverage was associated with point increases in HAQ scores among the ages of 20 to 24 years (0.59 [99% CI, 0.06-1.11]), 45 to 49 years (0.88 [99% CI, 0.09-1.67]), and 50 to 54 years (1.01 [99% CI, 0.13-1.89]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the US age-specific HAQ scores for ages 15 to 64 years were low relative to high-income peer locations with universal health insurance coverage. Among US states, insurance coverage was associated with higher HAQ scores for some ages. Further research with causal models and additional explanations is warranted.

Global prevalence of traumatic non-fatal limb amputation.

BACKGROUND: Reliable information on both global need for prosthetic services and the current prosthetist workforce is limited. Global burden of disease estimates can provide valuable insight into amputation prevalence due to traumatic causes and global prosthetists needed to treat traumatic amputations. OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to quantify and interpret patterns in global distribution and prevalence of traumatic limb amputation by cause, region, and age within the context of prosthetic rehabilitation, prosthetist need, and prosthetist education. STUDY DESIGN: A secondary database descriptive study. METHODS: Amputation prevalence and prevalence rate per 100,000 due to trauma were estimated using the 2017 global burden of disease results. Global burden of disease estimation utilizes a Bayesian metaregression and best available data to estimate the prevalence of diseases and injuries, such as amputation. RESULTS: In 2017, 57.7 million people were living with limb amputation due to traumatic causes worldwide. Leading traumatic causes of limb amputation were falls (36.2%), road injuries (15.7%), other transportation injuries (11.2%), and mechanical forces (10.4%). The highest number of prevalent traumatic amputations was in East Asia and South Asia followed by Western Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East, high-income North America and Eastern Europe. Based on these prevalence estimates, approximately 75,850 prosthetists are needed globally to treat people with traumatic amputations. CONCLUSION: Amputation prevalence estimates and patterns can inform prosthetic service provision, education and planning.

Projected impact and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus targeted azithromycin administration strategies for reducing child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Trials of mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin (AZM) report reductions in child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). AZM targeted to high-risk children may preserve benefit while minimizing antibiotic exposure. We modeled the cost-effectiveness of MDA to children 1-59 months of age, MDA to children 1-5 months of age, AZM administered at hospital discharge, and the combination of MDA and post-discharge AZM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Models employed a payer perspective with a 1-year time horizon. Cost-effectiveness was presented as cost per DALY averted and death averted, with probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The model included parameters for macrolide resistance, adverse events, hospitalization, and mortality sourced from published data. Assuming a base-case 1.64% mortality risk among children 1-59 months old, 3.1% among children 1-5 months old, 4.4% mortality risk post-discharge, and 13.5% mortality reduction per trial data, post-discharge AZM would avert ~45,000 deaths, at a cost of $2.84/DALY (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.71-5.57) averted. MDA to only children 1-5 months old would avert ~186,000 deaths at a cost of $4.89/DALY averted (95% UI: 2.88-11.42), MDA to all under-5 children would avert ~267,000 deaths a cost of $14.26/DALY averted (95% UI: 8.72-27.08). Cost-effectiveness decreased with presumed diminished efficacy due to macrolide resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting AZM to children at highest risk of death may be an antibiotic-sparing and cost-effective, or even cost-saving, strategy to reduce child mortality. However, targeted AZM averts fewer absolute deaths and may not reach all children who would benefit. Any AZM administration decision must consider implications for antibiotic resistance.

Determinants of linear growth faltering among children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in the first 2 years of life can impair linear growth. We sought to determine risk factors for linear growth faltering and to build a clinical prediction tool to identify children most likely to experience growth faltering following an episode of MSD. METHODS: Using data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study of children 0-23 months old presenting with MSD in Africa and Asia, we performed log-binomial regression to determine clinical and sociodemographic factors associated with severe linear growth faltering (loss of ≥ 0.5 length-for-age z-score [LAZ]). Linear regression was used to estimate associations with ΔLAZ. A clinical prediction tool was developed using backward elimination of potential variables, and Akaike Information Criterion to select the best fit model. RESULTS: Of the 5902 included children, mean age was 10 months and 43.2% were female. Over the 50-90-day follow-up period, 24.2% of children had severe linear growth faltering and the mean ΔLAZ over follow-up was - 0.17 (standard deviation [SD] 0.54). After adjustment for age, baseline LAZ, and site, several factors were associated with decline in LAZ: young age, acute malnutrition, hospitalization at presentation, non-dysenteric diarrhea, unimproved sanitation, lower wealth, fever, co-morbidity, or an IMCI danger sign. Compared to children 12-23 months old, those 0-6 months were more likely to experience severe linear growth faltering (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.97 [95% CI 1.70, 2.28]), as were children 6-12 months of age (aPR 1.72 [95% CI 1.51, 1.95]). A prediction model that included age, wasting, stunting, presentation with fever, and presentation with an IMCI danger sign had an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64, 0.69). Risk scores ranged from 0 to 37, and a cut-off of 21 maximized sensitivity (60.7%) and specificity (63.5%). CONCLUSION: Younger age, acute malnutrition, MSD severity, and sociodemographic factors were associated with short-term linear growth deterioration following MSD. Data routinely obtained at MSD may be useful to predict children at risk for growth deterioration who would benefit from interventions.

Estimating the cost of illness and burden of disease associated with the 2014-2015 chikungunya outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus that causes fever and severe polyarthralgia, swept through the Americas in 2014 with almost 2 million suspected or confirmed cases reported by April 2016. In this study, we estimate the direct medical costs, cost of lost wages due to absenteeism, and years lived with disability (YLD) associated with the 2014-2015 CHIKV outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). For this analysis, we used surveillance data from the USVI Department of Health, medical cost data from three public hospitals in USVI, and data from two studies of laboratory-positive cases up to 12 months post illness. On average, employed case-patients missed 9 days of work in the 12 months following their disease onset, which resulted in an estimated cost of $15.5 million. Estimated direct healthcare costs were $2.9 million for the first 2 months and $0.6 million for 3-12 months following the outbreak. The total estimated cost associated with the outbreak ranged from $14.8 to $33.4 million (approximately 1% of gross domestic product), depending on the proportion of the population infected with symptomatic disease, degree of underreporting, and proportion of cases who were employed. The estimated YLDs associated with long-term sequelae from the CHIKV outbreak in the USVI ranged from 599-1,322. These findings highlight the significant economic burden of the recent CHIKV outbreak in the USVI and will aid policy-makers in making informed decisions about prevention and control measures for inevitable, future CHIKV outbreaks.

Funding and services needed to achieve universal health coverage: applications of global, regional, and national estimates of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions from 1990 to 2016, and unit costs from 1995 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: To inform plans to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), we estimated utilisation and unit cost of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions, did a decomposition analysis of utilisation, and estimated additional services and funds needed to meet a UHC standard for utilisation. METHODS: We collated 1175 country-years of outpatient data on utilisation from 130 countries and 2068 country-years of inpatient data from 128 countries. We did meta-regression analyses of annual visits and admissions per capita by sex, age, location, and year with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We decomposed changes in total number of services from 1990 to 2016. We used data from 795 National Health Accounts to estimate shares of outpatient and inpatient services in total health expenditure by location and year and estimated unit costs as expenditure divided by utilisation. We identified standards of utilisation per disability-adjusted life-year and estimated additional services and funds needed. FINDINGS: In 2016, the global age-standardised outpatient utilisation rate was 5·42 visits (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4·88-5·99) per capita and the inpatient utilisation rate was 0·10 admissions (0·09-0·11) per capita. Globally, 39·35 billion (95% UI 35·38-43·58) visits and 0·71 billion (0·65-0·77) admissions were provided in 2016. Of the 58·65% increase in visits since 1990, population growth accounted for 42·95%, population ageing for 8·09%, and higher utilisation rates for 7·63%; results for the 67·96% increase in admissions were 44·33% from population growth, 9·99% from population ageing, and 13·55% from increases in utilisation rates. 2016 unit cost estimates (in 2017 international dollars [I$]) ranged from I$2 to I$478 for visits and from I$87 to I$22 543 for admissions. The annual cost of 8·20 billion (6·24-9·95) additional visits and 0·28 billion (0·25-0·30) admissions in low-income and lower-middle income countries in 2016 was I$503·12 billion (404·35-605·98) or US$158·10 billion (126·58-189·67). INTERPRETATION: UHC plans can be based on utilisation and unit costs of current health systems and guided by standards of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions that achieve the highest coverage of personal health services at the lowest cost. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of TB/HIV Integration on TB and HIV Indicators in Rural Ugandan Health Facilities.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends integrating services for patients coinfected with tuberculosis (TB) and HIV. We assessed the effect of TB/HIV integration on antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and TB treatment outcomes among TB/HIV-coinfected patients using data collected from 14 rural health facilities during 2 previous TB and HIV quality of care studies. METHODS: A facility was considered to have integrated TB/HIV services if patients with TB/HIV had combined treatment for both illnesses by 1 provider or care team at 1 treatment location. We analyzed the effect of integration by conducting a cross-sectional analysis of integrated and nonintegrated facility periods comparing performance on ART initiation and TB treatment outcomes. We conducted logistic regression, with the patient as the unit of analysis, controlling for other intervention effects, adjusting for age and sex, and clustering by health facility. RESULTS: From January 2012 to June 2014, 996 patients with TB were registered, 97% were tested for HIV, and 404 (42%) were HIV-positive. Excluding transfers, 296 patients were eligible for analysis with 117 and 179 from nonintegrated and integrated periods, respectively. Being treated in a facility with TB/HIV integration was associated with lower mortality [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18 to 0.77], but there was no difference in the proportion initiating ART (aOR = 1.34, 95% CI: 0.40 to 4.47), with TB treatment success (aOR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.73 to 2.82), lost to follow-up (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 0.53 to 5.04), or failure (aOR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.34 to 4.32). CONCLUSIONS: TB/HIV service integration was associated with lower mortality during TB treatment even in settings with suboptimal proportions of patients completing TB treatment and starting on ART.

Indirect Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness for the Prevention of Rotavirus Hospitalization: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Two rotavirus vaccines, RotaTeq and Rotarix, are licensed for global use; however, the protection they confer to unvaccinated individuals through indirect effects remains unknown. We systematically reviewed the literature and quantified indirect rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) for preventing rotavirus hospitalization in children aged less than 5 years. From 148 identified abstracts, 14 studies met our eligibility criteria. In our main analysis using a random-effects model, indirect rotavirus VE was 48% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39-55%). In a subgroup analysis by country income level, indirect VE was greater in high-income countries (52%; 95% CI: 43-60%) than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (25%; 95% CI: 5-41%). In a sensitivity analysis using a quality-effects model, the indirect VE in LMICs was not statistically significant (25%; 95% CI: 0-44%). Our findings highlight the importance of increasing rotavirus vaccine coverage, particularly in LMICs where evidence for indirect VE is limited and rotavirus burden is high.

Synergistic Impact of Training Followed by On-Site Support on HIV Clinical Practice: A Mixed-Design Study in Uganda With Pre/Post and Cluster-Randomized Trial Components.

BACKGROUND: Task shifting can expand antiretroviral therapy access, but little is known about effective approaches to improve clinical practice among midlevel practitioners (MLPs) such as clinical officers, nurses, and midwives. The Integrated Infectious Diseases Capacity Building Evaluation compared training alone with training combined with on-site support (OSS). METHODS: Two MLPs each from 36 health facilities attended the 5-week Integrated Management of Infectious Disease training. After training, 18 facilities randomly assigned to arm A received OSS for 9 months, whereas 18 arm B facilities did not. Clinical faculty assessed MLP HIV clinical practice on 6 tasks: history taking, physical examination, laboratory investigations, diagnosis, treatment, and patient education. We analyzed the effect of training alone and training combined with OSS as the pre/post change within each arm. We analyzed the incremental effect of OSS with a difference-in-difference analysis that compared changes between arms. RESULTS: Training alone and training combined with OSS significantly improved clinical practice in patient history taking (13% and 24% increase, respectively), physical examination (54% and 71%), laboratory investigations (32% and 20%), and diagnosis (31% and 51%). Combined training and OSS also improved patient education significantly (72% increase). Effect sizes for training combined with OSS were larger than for training alone except for laboratory investigations, and the effects were robust in sensitivity analyses. The incremental effect of OSS on diagnosis was significant [adjusted relative risk = 1.23; 95% confidence interval = 1.00 to 1.50]. CONCLUSIONS: Combined training and OSS improved MLP HIV clinical practice over training alone and can contribute to continued expansion of access to antiretroviral therapy.

Simulation training to improve 9-1-1 dispatcher identification of cardiac arrest: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of simulation training, using actors to make mock calls, on improving Emergency Medical Dispatchers' (EMDs) ability to recognize the need for, and reduce the time to, telephone-assisted CPR (T-CPR) in simulated and real cardiac arrest 9-1-1 calls. METHODS: We conducted a parallel prospective randomized controlled trial with n=157 EMDs from thirteen 9-1-1 call centers. Study participants were randomized within each center to intervention (i.e., completing 4 simulation training sessions over 12-months) or control (status quo). After the intervention period, performance on 9 call processing skills and 2 time-intervals were measured in 2 simulation assessment calls for both arms. Six of the 13 call centers provided recordings of real cardiac arrest calls taken by study participants during the study period. RESULTS: Of the N=128 EMDs who completed the simulation assessment, intervention participants (n=66) performed significantly better on 6 of 9 call processing skills and started T-CPR 23s faster (73 vs 91s respectively, p<0.001) compared to participants in the control arm (n=62). In real cardiac arrest calls, EMDs who completed 3 or 4 training sessions were more likely to recognize the need for T-CPR for more challenging cardiac arrest calls than EMDs who completed fewer than 3, including controls who completed no training (68% vs 53%, p=0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Simulation training improves call processing skills and reduces time to T-CPR in simulated call scenarios, and may improve the recognition of the need for T-CPR in more challenging real-life cardiac arrest calls. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov Trial # NCT01972087.

Pre/post evaluation of a pilot prevention with positives training program for healthcare providers in North West Province, Republic of South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Prevention interventions for people living with HIV/AIDS are an important component of HIV programs. We report the results of a pilot evaluation of a four-hour, clinic-based training for healthcare providers in South Africa on HIV prevention assessments and messages. This pre/post pilot evaluation examined whether the training was associated with providers delivering more prevention messages. METHODS: Seventy providers were trained at four public primary care clinics with a high volume of HIV patients. Pre- and post-training patient exit surveys were conducted using Audio-Computer Assisted Structured Interviews. Seven provider appropriate messaging outcomes and one summary provider outcome were compared pre- and post-training using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-nine patients pre-training and 405 post-training with known HIV status were interviewed, including 175 and 176 HIV positive patients respectively. Among HIV positive patients, delivery of all appropriate messages by providers declined post-training. The summary outcome decreased from 56 to 50%; adjusted rate ratio 0.92 (95% CI = 0.87-0.97). Sensitivity analyses adjusting for training coverage and time since training detected fewer declines. Among HIV negative patients the summary score was stable at 32% pre- and post-training; adjusted rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI = 0.98-1.12). CONCLUSIONS: Surprisingly, this training was associated with a decrease in prevention messages delivered to HIV positive patients by providers. Limited training coverage and delays between training and post-training survey may partially account for this apparent decrease. A more targeted approach to prevention messages may be more effective.