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Background & Aims: Pre-acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct intermediate stage between acute decompensation (AD) and ACLF. However, identifying patients with pre-ACLF and predicting progression from AD to ACLF is difficult. This study aimed to identify pre-ACLF within 28 days, and to develop and validate a prediction model for ACLF in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis. Methods: In total, 1,736 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and AD were enrolled from 2 large-scale, multicenter, prospective cohorts. ACLF occurrence within 28 days, readmission, and 3-month and 1-year outcomes were collected. Results: Among 970 patients with AD without ACLF in the derivation cohort, the 94 (9.6%) patients with pre-ACLF had the highest 3-month and 1-year LT-free mortality (61.6% and 70.9%, respectively), which was comparable to those with ACLF at enrollment (57.1% and 67.1%); the 251 (25.9%) patients with unstable decompensated cirrhosis had mortality rates of 22.4% and 32.1%, respectively; while the 507 (57.9%) patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis had the best outcomes (1-year mortality rate of 2.6%). Through Cox proportional hazard regression, specific precipitants, including hepatitis B flare with HBV reactivation, spontaneous hepatitis B flare with high viral load, superimposed infection on HBV, and bacterial infection, were identified to be significantly associated with ACLF occurrence in the derivation cohort. A model that incorporated precipitants, indicators of systemic inflammation and organ injuries reached a high C-index of 0.90 and 0.86 in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal cut-off value (0.22) differentiated high-risk and low-risk patients, with a negative predictive value of 0.95. Conclusions: Three distinct clinical courses of patients with AD are validated in the HBV-etiology population. The precipitants significantly impact on AD-ACLF transition. A model developed by the precipitant-systemic inflammation-organ injury framework could be a useful tool for predicting ACLF occurrence. Clinical trial number: NCT02457637 and NCT03641872. Lay summary: It was previously shown that patients with decompensated cirrhosis could be stratified into 3 groups based on their short-term clinical prognoses. Herein, we showed that this stratification applies to patients who develop cirrhosis as a result of hepatitis B virus infection. We also developed a precipitant-based model (i.e. a model that incorporated information about the exact cause of decompensation) that could predict the likelihood of these patients developing a very severe liver disease called acute-on-chronic liver failure (or ACLF).
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BACKGROUND: Autoimmune liver disease (AILD) has been considered a relatively uncommon disease in China, epidemiological data for AILD in patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation (AD) is sparse. AIM: To investigate the prevalence, outcome and risk factors for AILD in cirrhotic patients complicated with AD in China. METHODS: We collected data from patients with cirrhosis and AD from two prospective, multicenter cohorts in hepatitis B virus endemic areas. Patients were regularly followed up at the end of 28-d, 90-d and 365-d, or until death or liver transplantation (LT). The primary outcome in this study was 90-d LT-free mortality. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was assessed on admission and during 28-d hospitalization, according to the diagnostic criteria of the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL). Risk factors for death were analyzed with logistic regression model. RESULTS: In patients with cirrhosis and AD, the overall prevalence of AILD was 9.3% (242/2597). Prevalence of ACLF was significantly lower in AILD cases (14%) than those with all etiology groups with cirrhosis and AD (22.8%) (P < 0.001). Among 242 enrolled AILD patients, the prevalence rates of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and PBC-AIH overlap syndrome (PBC/AIH) were 50.8%, 28.5% and 12.0%, respectively. In ACLF patients, the proportions of PBC, AIH and PBC/AIH were 41.2%, 29.4% and 20.6%. 28-d and 90-d mortality were 43.8% and 80.0% in AILD-related ACLF. The etiology of AILD had no significant impact on 28-d, 90-d or 365-d LT-free mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AD in both univariate and multivariate analysis. Total bilirubin (TB), hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were independent risk factors for 90-d LT-free mortality in multivariate analysis. The development of ACLF during hospitalization only independently correlated to TB and international normalized ratio. CONCLUSION: AILD was not rare in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and AD in China, among which PBC was the most common etiology. 90-d LT-free mortality were independently associated with TB, HE and BUN.
