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Mating systems, influenced by the social and ecological environment and individual attributes, are fundamental components of animal social organisation, impacting behaviour, animal distribution, ecosystem processes, individual reproductive success, and population dynamics. Bats are of particular interest for studies of mating systems as they are thought to exhibit a greater diversity in mating systems than any other mammalian order, and thus make great models for improving our fundamental understanding of causes and consequences of social organisation. Here, we review the current knowledge of bat mating systems. Our analyses show that research on bat mating systems has not kept pace with research on bats in general and that traditional typologies do not accommodate the mating system of several species. Therefore, we propose an alternative, functional framework to categorise mating systems of bats and by extension of other taxa. We argue that mating systems can be classified according to a male reproductive skew continuum, with an increasing skew from monogamy to true lekking. We include an additional category of lek-like mating system along the continuum to account for previous trans-categorical cases that have the appearance of resource defence but are functionally akin to a lek. The new framework has a total of seven categories: promiscuity, monogamy, female defence polygyny, resource defence polygyny, a lek-like mating system, exploded classical lek, and clustered classical lek. Applying this framework to bats reveals that lek mating systems are more prevalent in bats than previously recognised. It is our aim that this review and the proposed framework provide a greater understanding of bat mating systems particularly and provoke research into the factors that shape mating systems across animal taxa more generally.
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Monitoring is necessary for the management of any threatened species if its predicament and status are to improve. Monitoring establishes baseline data for tracking trends in distribution and abundance and is a key tool for informing threatened species management. Across much of the Old World, bats in the genus Pteropus (Pteropodidae, Chiroptera) face significant threats from habitat loss, conflict with humans, and hunting. Despite conflict with humans and their threatened status, few Pteropus are being monitored. Often, this is because of difficulties associated with their high mobility, large and easily disturbed aggregations, and their use of unknown or remote habitat. Here we describe 10 years of results from the National Flying-fox Monitoring Program (NFFMP) for the grey-headed flying-fox, (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Australia. Range-wide quarterly surveys were conducted over a three-day period since November 2012 using standardized methods appropriate to conditions encountered at each roost. For our analysis of the population and its trend, we used a state-space model to account for the ecology of the grey-headed flying-fox and the errors associated with the surveying process. Despite the general perception that the species is in decline, our raw data and the modelled population trend suggest the grey-headed flying-fox population has remained stable during the NFFMP period, with the range also stable. These results indicate that the species' extreme mobility and broad diet bestow it with a high level of resilience to various disturbance events. Long-term, range-wide studies such as this one, are crucial for understanding relatively long-lived and highly nomadic species such as the grey-headed flying-fox. The outcomes of this study highlight the need for such systematic population monitoring of all threatened Pteropus species.
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Quirópteros , Animales , Humanos , Australia/epidemiología , Ecología , EcosistemaRESUMEN
Integrated pest management (IPM) leverages our understanding of ecological interactions to mitigate the impact of pest species on economically and/or ecologically important assets. It has primarily been applied in terrestrial settings (e.g., agriculture), but has rarely been attempted for marine ecosystems. The crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS), Acanthaster spp., is a voracious coral predator throughout the Indo-Pacific where it undergoes large population increases (irruptions), termed outbreaks. During outbreaks CoTS act as a pest species and can result in substantial coral loss. Contemporary management of CoTS on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) adopts facets of the IPM paradigm to manage these outbreaks through strategic use of direct manual control (culling) of individuals in response to ecologically based target thresholds. There has, however, been limited quantitative analysis of how to optimize the implementation of such thresholds. Here we use a multispecies modeling approach to assess the performance of alternative CoTS management scenarios for improving coral cover trajectories. The scenarios examined varied in terms of their ecological threshold target, the sensitivity of the threshold, and the level of management resourcing. Our approach illustrates how to quantify multidimensional trade-offs in resourcing constraints, concurrent CoTS and coral population dynamics, the stringency of target thresholds, and the geographical scale of management outcomes (number of sites). We found strategies with low target density thresholds for CoTS (≤0.03 CoTS min-1 ) could act as "Effort Sinks" and limit the number of sites that could be effectively controlled, particularly under CoTS population outbreaks. This was because a handful of sites took longer to control, which meant other sites were not controlled. Higher density thresholds (e.g., 0.04-0.08 CoTS min-1 ), tuned to levels of coral cover, diluted resources among sites but were more robust to resourcing constraints and pest population dynamics. Our study highlights trade-off decisions when using an IPM framework and informs the implementation of threshold-based strategies on the GBR.
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Antozoos , Humanos , Animales , Arrecifes de Coral , Ecosistema , Estrellas de Mar/fisiología , Control de PlagasRESUMEN
Reliable information on population size is fundamental to the management of threatened species. For wild species, mark-recapture methods are a cornerstone of abundance estimation. Here, we show the first application of the close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) method to a terrestrial species of high conservation value; the Christmas Island flying-fox (CIFF). The CIFF is the island's last remaining native terrestrial mammal and was recently listed as critically endangered. CKMR is a powerful tool for estimating the demographic parameters central to CIFF management and circumvents the complications arising from the species' cryptic nature, mobility, and difficult-to-survey habitat. To this end, we used genetic data from 450 CIFFs captured between 2015 and 2019 to detect kin pairs. We implemented a novel CKMR model that estimates sex-specific abundance, trend, and mortality and accommodates observations from the kin-pair distribution of male reproductive skew and mate persistence. CKMR estimated CIFF total adult female abundance to be approximately 2050 individuals (95% CI (950, 4300)). We showed that on average only 23% of the adult male population contributed to annual reproduction and strong evidence for between-year mate fidelity, an observation not previously quantified for a Pteropus species in the wild. Critically, our population estimates provide the most robust understanding of the status of this critically endangered population, informing immediate and future conservation initiatives.
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Quirópteros , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Humanos , Animales , Masculino , Femenino , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Densidad de Población , Ecosistema , MamíferosRESUMEN
Effective management of protected species requires information on appropriate evolutionary and geographic population boundaries and knowledge of how the physical environment and life-history traits combine to shape the population structure and connectivity. Saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus) are the largest and most widely distributed of living crocodilians, extending from Sri Lanka to Southeast Asia and down to northern Australia. Given the long-distance movement capabilities reported for C. porosus, management units are hypothesised to be highly connected by migration. However, the magnitude, scale, and consistency of connection across managed populations are not fully understood. Here we used an efficient genotyping method that combines DArTseq and sequence capture to survey ≈ 3000 high-quality genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms from 1176 C. porosus sampled across nearly the entire range of the species in Queensland, Australia. We investigated historical and present-day connectivity patterns using fixation and diversity indices coupled with clustering methods and the spatial distribution of kin pairs. We inferred kinship using forward simulation coupled with a kinship estimation method that is robust to unspecified population structure. The results demonstrated that the C. porosus population has substantial genetic structure with six broad populations correlated with geographical location. The rate of gene flow was highly correlated with spatial distance, with greater differentiation along the east coast compared to the west. Kinship analyses revealed evidence of reproductive philopatry and limited dispersal, with approximately 90% of reported first and second-degree relatives showing a pairwise distance of <50 km between sampling locations. Given the limited dispersal, lack of suitable habitat, low densities of crocodiles and the high proportion of immature animals in the population, future management and conservation interventions should be considered at regional and state-wide scales.
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Using the commercially available PEPperCHIP® microarray platform, a peptide microarray was developed to identify immunodominant epitopes for the detection of antibodies against Equine arteritis virus (EAV). For this purpose, the whole EAV Bucyrus sequence was used to design a total of 1250 peptides that were synthesized and spotted onto a microarray slide. A panel of 28 serum samples representing a selection of EAV strains was tested using the microarray. Of the 1250 peptides, 97 peptides (7.76%) showed reactivity with the EAV-positive samples. No single peptide was detected by all the positive serum samples. Seven peptides repeatedly showed reactivity above the cut-off and were considered to have diagnostic potential. Five of these peptides were within the immunodominant GP5 protein and two were within the replicase polyprotein regions NSP2 and NSP10, located in ORF1. The diagnostic sensitivity of the seven peptides selected was low, ranging from 5% to 55%; however, the combined diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the seven peptides was 90% and 100%, respectively. This data demonstrate that multiple peptide sequences would be required to design a comprehensive serological test to cover the diversity of the EAV strains and the individual immune responses of horses.
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Equartevirus , Enfermedades de los Caballos , Secuencia de Aminoácidos , Animales , Caballos , Epítopos Inmunodominantes , Péptidos , PoliproteínasRESUMEN
Bats have been implicated as the reservoir hosts of filoviruses in Africa, with serological evidence of filoviruses in various bat species identified in other countries. Here, serum samples from 190 bats, comprising 12 different species, collected in Australia were evaluated for filovirus antibodies. An in-house indirect microsphere assay to detect antibodies that cross-react with Ebola virus (Zaire ebolavirus; EBOV) nucleoprotein (NP) followed by an immunofluorescence assay (IFA) were used to confirm immunoreactivity to EBOV and Reston virus (Reston ebolavirus; RESTV). We found 27 of 102 Yinpterochiroptera and 19 of 88 Yangochiroptera samples were positive to EBOV NP in the microsphere assay. Further testing of these NP positive samples by IFA revealed nine bat sera that showed binding to ebolavirus-infected cells. This is the first report of filovirus-reactive antibodies detected in Australian bat species and suggests that novel filoviruses may be circulating in Australian bats.
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Quirópteros , Ebolavirus , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola , Animales , Anticuerpos Antivirales , Australia , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/veterinaria , NucleoproteínasRESUMEN
Urban-living wildlife can be exposed to metal contaminants dispersed into the environment through industrial, residential, and agricultural applications. Metal exposure carries lethal and sublethal consequences for animals; in particular, heavy metals (e.g. arsenic, lead, mercury) can damage organs and act as carcinogens. Many bat species reside and forage in human-modified habitats and could be exposed to contaminants in air, water, and food. We quantified metal concentrations in fur samples from three flying fox species (Pteropus fruit bats) captured at eight sites in eastern Australia. For subsets of bats, we assessed ectoparasite burden, haemoparasite infection, and viral infection, and performed white blood cell differential counts. We examined relationships among metal concentrations, environmental predictors (season, land use surrounding capture site), and individual predictors (species, sex, age, body condition, parasitism, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio). As expected, bats captured at sites with greater human impact had higher metal loads. At one site with seasonal sampling, bats had higher metal concentrations in winter than in summer, possibly owing to changes in food availability and foraging. Relationships between ectoparasites and metal concentrations were mixed, suggesting multiple causal mechanisms. There was no association between overall metal load and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, but mercury concentrations were positively correlated with this ratio, which is associated with stress in other vertebrate taxa. Comparison of our findings to those of previous flying fox studies revealed potentially harmful levels of several metals; in particular, endangered spectacled flying foxes (P. conspicillatus) exhibited high concentrations of cadmium and lead. Because some bats harbor pathogens transmissible to humans and animals, future research should explore interactions between metal exposure, immunity, and infection to assess consequences for bat and human health.
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Quirópteros , Mercurio , Animales , Australia , Metales , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
If the primary function of avian-dispersed fruit coloration were the maximization of detectability, then the commonest avian-dispersed fruit colors should be the ones most detectable to birds. We tested this prediction by photographing 63 fruit species primarily dispersed by birds, in situ in Sweden and Australia, with a multispectral camera closely mimicking the predominant spectral sensitivities of birds, including both UVS and VS (peak ultraviolet sensitivity â¼370 and 409 nm respectively) visual systems. Fruits were classified into nine distinct color categories based on different patterns of cone excitations, and were named by combining human color names with fruits' UV reflective properties. For example, a bluish-UV fruit would be a fruit that excited the avian UV cone the most, but that also strongly excited the blue cone. Color and achromatic contrasts were calculated between each fruit color and common background objects, and compared to the relative abundance of the different fruit colors. Although red was highly detectable and the commonest color, the second and third commonest colors, purplish-UV and bluish-UV (often termed "black" by humans), were the least detectable. Although these latter two colors were more detectable to UVS than to VS birds, they were the least detectable to both visual systems. Rare fruit colors, such as UVish-purple, pink, and orange, were highly detectable to both visual systems. The lack of correlation between fruit color abundance and detectability suggests that the maximization of detectability has not been the primary driving force behind the evolution of fruit color.
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Aves , Frutas , Animales , Color , Humanos , Células Fotorreceptoras Retinianas ConosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Animals are important vectors for the dispersal of a wide variety of plant species, and thus play a key role in maintaining the health and biodiversity of natural ecosystems. On oceanic islands, flying-foxes are often the only seed dispersers or pollinators. However, many flying-fox populations are currently in decline, particularly those of insular species, and this has consequences for the ecological services they provide. Knowledge of the drivers and the scale of flying-fox movements is important in determining the ecological roles that flying-foxes play on islands. This information is also useful for understanding the potential long-term consequences for forest dynamics resulting from population declines or extinction, and so can aid in the development of evidence-based ecological management strategies. To these ends, we examined the foraging movements, floral resource use, and social interactions of the Critically Endangered Christmas Island flying-fox (Pteropus natalis). METHODS: Utilization distributions, using movement-based kernel estimates (MBKE) were generated to determine nightly foraging movements of GPS-tracked P. natalis (n = 24). Generalized linear models (GLMs), linear mixed-effect models (LMMs), and Generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMMs) were constructed to explain how intrinsic factors (body mass, skeletal size, and sex) affected the extent of foraging movements. In addition, we identified pollen collected from facial and body swabs of P. natalis (n = 216) to determine foraging resource use. Direct observations (n = 272) of foraging P. natalis enabled us to assess the various behaviors used to defend foraging resources. RESULTS: Larger P. natalis individuals spent more time foraging and less time traveling between foraging patches, traveled shorter nightly distances, and had smaller overall foraging ranges than smaller conspecifics. Additionally, larger individuals visited a lower diversity of floral resources. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that smaller P. natalis individuals are the primary vectors of long-distance dispersal of pollen and digested seeds in this species, providing a vital mechanism for maintaining the flow of plant genetic diversity across Christmas Island. Overall, our study highlights the need for more holistic research approaches that incorporate population demographics when assessing a species' ecological services.
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On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades.
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An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
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Population outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (COTS; Acanthaster spp.) are a major contributor to loss of hard coral throughout the Indo-Pacific. On Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), management interventions have evolved over four COTS outbreaks to include: (1) manual COTS control, (2) Marine Protected Area (MPA) zoning, and, (3) water quality improvement. Here we evaluate the contribution of these three approaches to managing population outbreaks of COTS to minimize coral loss. Strategic manual control at sites reduced COTS numbers, including larger, more fecund and damaging individuals. Sustained reduction in COTS densities and improvements in hard coral cover at a site were achieved through repeated control visits. MPAs influenced initial COTS densities but only marginally influenced final hard coral cover following COTS control. Water quality improvement programs have achieved only marginal reductions in river nutrient loads delivered to the GBR and the study region. This, a subsequent COTS outbreak, and declining coral cover across the region suggest their contributions are negligible. These findings support manual control as the most direct, and only effective, means of reducing COTS densities and improving hard coral cover currently available at a site. We provide recommendations for improving control program effectiveness with application to supporting reef resilience across the Indo-Pacific.
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Arrecifes de Coral , Estrellas de Mar/crecimiento & desarrollo , Animales , Australia , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/métodos , Dinámica Poblacional , Conducta Predatoria , Estrellas de Mar/fisiologíaRESUMEN
The corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.) has been linked with the widespread loss of scleractinian coral cover on Indo-Pacific reefs during periodic population outbreaks. Here, we re-examine CoTS consumption by coral reef fish species by using new DNA technologies to detect Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) in fish faecal and gut content samples. CoTS DNA was detected in samples from 18 different coral reef fish species collected on reefs at various stages of CoTS outbreaks in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, nine of which had not been previously reported to feed on CoTS. A comprehensive set of negative and positive control samples confirmed that our collection, processing and analysis procedures were robust, although food web transfer of CoTS DNA cannot be ruled out for some fish species. Our results, combined with the (i) presence of CoTS spines in some samples, (ii) reported predation on CoTS gametes, larvae and settled individuals, and (iii) known diet information for fish species examined, strongly indicate that direct fish predation on CoTS may well be more common than is currently appreciated. We provide recommendations for specific management approaches to enhance predation on CoTS by coral reef fishes, and to support the mitigation of CoTS outbreaks and reverse declines in hard coral cover.
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Código de Barras del ADN Taxonómico , Heces , Intestinos , Estrellas de Mar/clasificación , Estrellas de Mar/genética , Animales , Arrecifes de Coral , Conducta PredatoriaRESUMEN
Phylogenetic inference of Hepatocystis, a haemosporidian parasite of diverse primate and bat hosts, revealed that the parasites from Australasian Pteropus bat species form a distinct clade to all other Hepatocystis parasites from Africa and Asia. Here, we investigate the phylogenetic placement of Hepatocystis in the Australian bat Pteropus poliocephalus for the first time and examine parasite morphology and prevalence from selected points across its range. Hepatocystis infections were detected in low prevalences in P. poliocephalus in contrast to high numbers in P. alecto and P. scapulatus. The prevalence in P. poliocephalus varied across its distribution range with 15% in the central biogeographic areas (central Queensland and New South Wales) and 1% in the southern-most edge (South Australia) of its range. Sequencing of five genes revealed high genetic similarity in Hepatocystis of P. poliocephalus independent of sampling location. Phylogenetic analysis placed these parasites with Hepatocystis from other Pteropus species from Australia and Asia. While numerous haplotypes were identified among sequences from the Pteropus hosts, no patterns of host specificity were recovered within the Pteropus-specific parasite group.
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Quirópteros/parasitología , Haemosporida/clasificación , Proteínas Protozoarias/genética , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN/métodos , Animales , Asia , Australia , Haemosporida/genética , Nueva Gales del Sur , Filogenia , Filogeografía , QueenslandRESUMEN
Knowledge of species' population trends is crucial when planning for conservation and management; however, this information can be difficult to obtain for extremely mobile species such as flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.; Chiroptera, Pteropodidae). In mainland Australia, flying-foxes are of particular management concern due their involvement in human-wildlife conflict, and their role as vectors of zoonotic diseases; and two species, the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) and the spectacled flying-fox (P. conspicillatus), are currently threatened with extinction. Here we demonstrate that archival weather radar data over a period of ten years can be used to monitor a large colony of grey-headed flying-foxes near Melbourne. We show that radar estimates of colony size closely match those derived from traditional counting methods. Moreover, we show that radar data can be used to determine the timing and departure direction of flying-foxes emerging from the roost. Finally, we show that radar observations of flying-foxes can be used to identify signals of important ecological events, such as mass flowering and extreme heat events, and can inform human activities, e.g. the safe operation of airports and windfarms. As such, radar represents an extremely promising tool for the conservation and management of vulnerable flying-fox populations and for managing human interactions with these ecologically-important mammals.
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Quirópteros/clasificación , Demografía/métodos , Seguimiento de Parámetros Ecológicos/métodos , Animales , Australia/epidemiología , Radar , Tiempo (Meteorología) , Zoonosis/prevención & controlRESUMEN
Flying foxes (family Pteropodidae) have distinct life histories given their size, characterized by longevity, low reproductive output, and long gestation. However, they tend to decouple the age at which sexual maturity is reached from the age at which they reach adult dimensions. We examined growth, maturation, and reproduction in the Critically Endangered Christmas Island flying fox (Pteropus natalis) to determine the timing of sex-specific life cycle events and patterns of growth. We estimated that juvenile growth in forearm length and body mass increased at a mean rate of 0.029 ± 0.005 mm/day and 0.33 ± 0.07 g/day for both males and females alike. Using these growth rates, we determined that the birth of pups occurs between December and March, with young becoming volant between June and August. The age at maturation for P. natalis is one of the oldest among all bat species. Juvenile males began to mature 15 months after birth and reached maturity 27 months after birth. Females reached maturity 24 months after birth at a significantly smaller body mass (3.6%) and forearm length (1.4%) than males. Significant sexual dimorphism and bimaturation was observed, with juvenile males being 1.5% and adult males being 1.9% larger on average than females for skeletal dimensions only. Growth and maturation are even slower in P. natalis than in the few other Pteropus species studied to date. The slow growth and delayed maturation of P. natalis imply slower potential population growth rates, further complicating the recovery of this Critically Endangered single-island endemic.
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Many broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) against HIV-1 recognize and/or penetrate the glycan shield on native, virion-associated envelope glycoprotein (Env) spikes. The same bnAbs also bind to recombinant, soluble trimeric immunogens based on the SOSIP design. While SOSIP trimers are close structural and antigenic mimics of virion Env, the extent to which their glycan structures resemble ones on infectious viruses is undefined. Here, we compare the overall glycosylation of gp120 and gp41 subunits from BG505 (clade A) virions produced in a lymphoid cell line with those from recombinant BG505 SOSIP trimers, including CHO-derived clinical grade material. We also performed detailed site-specific analyses of gp120. Glycans relevant to key bnAb epitopes are generally similar on the recombinant SOSIP and virion-derived Env proteins, although the latter do contain hotspots of elevated glycan processing. Knowledge of native versus recombinant Env glycosylation will guide vaccine design and manufacturing programs.
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VIH-1/inmunología , Virión/metabolismo , Glicosilación , HumanosRESUMEN
In the Australian subtropics, flying-foxes (family Pteropididae) play a fundamental ecological role as forest pollinators. Flying-foxes are also reservoirs of the fatal zoonosis, Hendra virus. Understanding flying fox foraging ecology, particularly in agricultural areas during winter, is critical to determine their role in transmitting Hendra virus to horses and humans. We developed a spatiotemporal model of flying-fox foraging intensity based on foraging patterns of 37 grey-headed flying-foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus) using GPS tracking devices and boosted regression trees. We validated the model with independent population counts and summarized temporal patterns in terms of spatial resource concentration. We found that spatial resource concentration was highest in late-summer and lowest in winter, with lowest values in winter 2011, the same year an unprecedented cluster of spillover events occurred in Queensland and New South Wales. Spatial resource concentration was positively correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation at 3-8 month time lags. Based on shared foraging traits with the primary reservoir of Hendra virus (Pteropus alecto), we used our results to develop hypotheses on how regional climatic history, eucalypt phenology, and foraging behaviour may contribute to the predominance of winter spillovers, and how these phenomena connote foraging habitat conservation as a public health intervention.
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Conducta Animal , Quirópteros/virología , Ambiente , Virus Hendra/fisiología , Modelos Estadísticos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , AnimalesRESUMEN
Monitoring flying-foxes is challenging as their extreme mobility produces highly dynamic population processes, considerable logistic difficulty, and variability in estimated population size. We report on methods for inferring population trend for the population of the spectacled flying-fox (Pteropus conspicillatus) in Australia. Monthly monitoring is conducted at all known roost sites across the species' range in the Wet Tropics Region. The proportion of animals in camps varies seasonally and stochastic environmental events appear to be influential. We develop a state-space model that incorporates these processes and enables inference on total population trends and uses early warning analysis to identify the causes of population dynamics. The model suggests that population growth rate is stable in the absence of cyclones, however, cyclones appear to impact on both survival and reproduction. The population recovered after two cyclones but declined after a third. The modelling estimates a population decline over 15 years of c. 75% (mean r = - 0.12yr-1 and belief of negative trend is c. 83%) suggesting that conservation action is warranted. Our work shows that a state-space modelling approach is a significant improvement on inference from raw counts from surveys and demonstrates that this approach is a workable alternative to other methods.