Prospective validation of a hospital triage predictive model to decrease undertriage: an EAST multicenter study.

Background: Tiered trauma team activation (TTA) allows systems to optimally allocate resources to an injured patient. Target undertriage and overtriage rates of <5% and <35% are difficult for centers to achieve, and performance variability exists. The objective of this study was to optimize and externally validate a previously developed hospital trauma triage prediction model to predict the need for emergent intervention in 6 hours (NEI-6), an indicator of need for a full TTA. Methods: The model was previously developed and internally validated using data from 31 US trauma centers. Data were collected prospectively at five sites using a mobile application which hosted the NEI-6 model. A weighted multiple logistic regression model was used to retrain and optimize the model using the original data set and a portion of data from one of the prospective sites. The remaining data from the five sites were designated for external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) were used to assess the validation cohort. Subanalyses were performed for age, race, and mechanism of injury. Results: 14 421 patients were included in the training data set and 2476 patients in the external validation data set across five sites. On validation, the model had an overall undertriage rate of 9.1% and overtriage rate of 53.7%, with an AUROC of 0.80 and an AUPRC of 0.63. Blunt injury had an undertriage rate of 8.8%, whereas penetrating injury had 31.2%. For those aged ≥65, the undertriage rate was 8.4%, and for Black or African American patients the undertriage rate was 7.7%. Conclusion: The optimized and externally validated NEI-6 model approaches the recommended undertriage and overtriage rates while significantly reducing variability of TTA across centers for blunt trauma patients. The model performs well for populations that traditionally have high rates of undertriage. Level of evidence: 2.

Asthma as a Risk Factor for Hospitalization in Children and Youth With COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies examining the association between asthma and hospitalization among children and youth with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have yielded mixed results. Both asthma and COVID-19 hospitalization are characterized by racial, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities which also pattern geographically, yet no studies to date have adjusted for neighborhood context in the assessment of this association. METHODS: Mixed effects logistic regression was used to estimate the association between asthma and hospitalization due to COVID-19 in a sample of 28,997 children and youth diagnosed with COVID-19 in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2022. Models adjusted for individual-level sociodemographic factors (age, gender, race, ethnicity and city/suburb residence) and season of diagnosis were examined as moderators. Random intercepts by census tract accounted for geographic variation in neighborhood factors and census tract-level measures of education, health and environment, and social and economic factors were assessed via childhood opportunity indices. RESULTS: Asthma history was statistically significantly associated with hospitalization due to COVID-19 among children and youth. Hospitalization rates varied statistically significantly by census tract, and results were unchanged after accounting for childhood opportunity indices and census tract. Season of diagnosis was not found to moderate the effect of asthma history on COVID-19 hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that asthma history is a risk factor for hospitalization in the context of COVID-19 infection among children and youth, warranting observation and follow-up of children with asthma as well as continued measures to prevent COVID-19 in this population.

Evidence on COVID-19 Mortality and Disparities Using a Novel Measure, COVID excess mortality percentage: Evidence from Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

COVID-19 mortality rates increase rapidly with age, are higher among men than women, and vary across racial/ethnic groups, but this is also true for other natural causes of death. Prior research on COVID-19 mortality rates and racial/ethnic disparities in those rates has not considered to what extent disparities reflect COVID-19-specific factors, versus preexisting health differences. This study examines both questions. We study the COVID-19-related increase in mortality risk and racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality, and how both vary with age, gender, and time period. We use a novel measure validated in prior work, the COVID Excess Mortality Percentage (CEMP), defined as the COVID-19 mortality rate (Covid-MR), divided by the non-COVID natural mortality rate during the same time period (non-Covid NMR), converted to a percentage. The CEMP denominator uses Non-COVID NMR to adjust COVID-19 mortality risk for underlying population health. The CEMP measure generates insights which differ from those using two common measures-the COVID-MR and the all-cause excess mortality rate. By studying both CEMP and COVID-MRMR, we can separate the effects of background health from Covid-specific factors affecting COVID-19 mortality. We study how CEMP and COVID-MR vary by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and time period, using data on all adult decedents from natural causes in Indiana and Wisconsin over April 2020-June 2022 and Illinois over April 2020-December 2021. CEMP levels for racial and ethnic minority groups can be very high relative to White levels, especially for Hispanics in 2020 and the first-half of 2021. For example, during 2020, CEMP for Hispanics aged 18-59 was 68.9% versus 7.2% for non-Hispanic Whites; a ratio of 9.57:1. CEMP disparities are substantial but less extreme for other demographic groups. Disparities were generally lower after age 60 and declined over our sample period. Differences in socio-economic status and education explain only a small part of these disparities.

Selection Effects and COVID-19 Mortality Risk after Pfizer vs. Moderna Vaccination: Evidence from Linked Mortality and Vaccination Records.

Prior research generally finds that the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and Moderna (mRNA1273) COVID-19 vaccines provide similar protection against mortality, sometimes with a Moderna advantage due to slower waning. However, most comparisons do not address selection effects for those who are vaccinated and with which vaccine. We report evidence on large selection effects, and use a novel method to control for these effects. Instead of directly studying COVID-19 mortality, we study the COVID-19 excess mortality percentage (CEMP), defined as the COVID-19 deaths divided by non-COVID-19 natural deaths for the same population, converted to a percentage. The CEMP measure uses non-COVID-19 natural deaths to proxy for population health and control for selection effects. We report the relative mortality risk (RMR) for each vaccine relative to the unvaccinated population and to the other vaccine, using linked mortality and vaccination records for all adults in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, from 1 April 2021 through 30 June 2022. For two-dose vaccinees aged 60+, RMRs for Pfizer vaccinees were consistently over twice those for Moderna, and averaged 248% of Moderna (95% CI = 175%,353%). In the Omicron period, Pfizer RMR was 57% versus 23% for Moderna. Both vaccines demonstrated waning of two-dose effectiveness over time, especially for ages 60+. For booster recipients, the Pfizer-Moderna gap is much smaller and statistically insignificant. A possible explanation for the Moderna advantage for older persons is the higher Moderna dose of 100 µg, versus 30 µg for Pfizer. Younger persons (aged 18-59) were well-protected against death by two doses of either vaccine, and highly protected by three doses (no deaths among over 100,000 vaccinees). These results support the importance of a booster dose for ages 60+, especially for Pfizer recipients. They suggest, but do not prove, that a larger vaccine dose may be appropriate for older persons than for younger persons.

Understanding COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Death Using a Novel Measure: COVID Excess Mortality Percentage.

COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives; however, understanding the long-term effectiveness of these vaccines is imperative to developing recommendations for booster doses and other precautions. Comparisons of mortality rates between more and less vaccinated groups may be misleading due to selection bias, as these groups may differ in underlying health status. We studied all adult deaths during the period of 1 April 2021-30 June 2022 in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, linked to vaccination records, and we used mortality from other natural causes to proxy for underlying health. We report relative COVID-19 mortality risk (RMR) for those vaccinated with two and three doses versus the unvaccinated, using a novel outcome measure that controls for selection effects. This measure, COVID Excess Mortality Percentage (CEMP), uses the non-COVID natural mortality rate (Non-COVID-NMR) as a measure of population risk of COVID mortality without vaccination. We validate this measure during the pre-vaccine period (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.97) and demonstrate that selection effects are large, with non-COVID-NMRs for two-dose vaccinees often less than half those for the unvaccinated, and non-COVID NMRs often still lower for three-dose (booster) recipients. Progressive waning of two-dose effectiveness is observed, with an RMR of 10.6% for two-dose vaccinees aged 60+ versus the unvaccinated during April-June 2021, rising steadily to 36.2% during the Omicron period (January-June, 2022). A booster dose reduced RMR to 9.5% and 10.8% for ages 60+ during the two periods when boosters were available (October-December, 2021; January-June, 2022). Boosters thus provide important additional protection against mortality.

Blind Spots: Biases in Prehospital Race and Ethnicity Recording.

OBJECTIVE: Inequities have been described in areas of prehospital care ranging from pain medication administration and scene time, to stroke and cardiac arrest management. Though a critical element in understanding inequity, race and ethnicity information are often missing from the prehospital patient care report. This study aimed to characterize and understand demographic trends among records with missing race and ethnicity information. METHODS: This before-and-after retrospective review compared patient care reports prior to and after an intervention that mandated the recording of patient race and ethnicity. Records with incomplete race and ethnicity information in the before group were evaluated to understand demographic patterns associated with this incomplete documentation. RESULTS: Among 98,725 patient care reports, race/ethnicity in the before period as compared to the after period was less likely to be documented in nonwhite patients (p < 0.001), younger patients (p < 0.001), male patients (p < 0.001), and non-emergent transports (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: When compared to data after the implementation of mandated race and ethnicity fields, missing race and ethnicity data were found to be more common in patients of color, younger patients, males, and those transported non-emergently. Inconsistent completion of race and ethnicity documentation may lead to a poor understanding of equity issues within a system, suggesting a need for mandatory race and ethnicity fields.

Accidental Occupational Exposure to a Large Volume of Liquid Fentanyl on a Compromised Skin Barrier with No Resultant Effect.

The high prevalence of fentanyl in the illicit drug supply has generated concern among first responders regarding occupational exposure. Social media sharing of unconfirmed first responder overdoses after brief exposure to fentanyl may be contributing to an inappropriate risk perception of brief dermal fentanyl exposure. This case details a dermal exposure to a large dose of analytically confirmed pharmaceutical fentanyl (fentanyl citrate, 10 microgram fentanyl base per ml), over a large skin surface area. Additionally, the exposure occurred at a site with some skin barrier compromise, a factor that can increase fentanyl absorption. The patient underwent appropriate decontamination and underwent a brief medical assessment with no clinical effects of opioid exposure observed. This information is of value to first responders and other health care workers who are at risk of occupational fentanyl exposure. Findings are consistent with in vitro and ex vivo data supporting low risk of rapid absorption after brief dermal fentanyl exposure.

The relationship between adverse childhood experiences, the frequency and acuity of emergency department utilization and primary care engagement.

INTRODUCTION: A history of adverse child experiences (ACEs) is associated with increased high-risk adult behaviors, morbidity, mortality, and use of the emergency department. This study was designed to understand the relationship between ACEs and the characteristics of emergency department use and primary care engagement. METHODS: An in-person survey was conducted at an academic emergency department (ED) assessing ACE score, emergency department utilization and acuity, and primary care engagement. RESULTS: The prevalence of ACEs was 71.1% with 1+ ACE and 32.5% with 4+ ACE. ACE scores of four or more were associated with three or more ED visits in the past year compared those with an ACE score of zero (OR 3.22; p < 0.05) and when adjusted for sociodemographic factors (OR 3.22; p < 0.10). Higher ACE scores were associated with lower acuity presentations as indicated by the Emergency Severity Index before (ACE score 1 OR 3.91 p < 0.05; ACE score 2-3 OR 2.35 p < 0.05; ACE score 4+ OR 3.95 p < 0.05) and after adjustment (ACE score 1 OR 3.80 p < 0.10; ACE 2-3 OR 3.50 p < 0.10; ACE 4+ OR 4.36 p < 0.05). There was no association between ACE score and having a primary care provider (PCP), frequency of PCP visits, or PCP rating. CONCLUSION: Higher ACE scores were associated with higher emergency department utilization and lower acuity presentations but not associated with levels of primary care engagement. Additional investigations are needed to adequately characterize the discrete causal mechanisms behind these current findings.

Targeting Equity in COVID-19 Vaccinations Using the "Evaluating Vulnerability and Equity" (EVE) Model.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted racial and ethnic disparities, most recently in vaccine administration. The EVE (Evaluating Vulnerability and Equity) Model combines a community's vulnerability with vaccination rates to enhance the equity of vaccine distribution in an intentional, targeted manner. When applied to Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, two extreme categories of vaccination status were identified to aid in resource allocation and messaging: populations with high vulnerability and low vaccination levels, and, conversely, those with low vulnerability and high vaccinations levels. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(2):220-222. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306585).

Examining the Examiners: How Medical Death Investigators Describe Suicidal, Homicidal, and Accidental Death.

This study describes differences in medicolegal death investigators' written descriptions for people who died by homicide, suicide, or accident. We evaluated 17 years of death descriptions from a midsized metropolitan midwestern county in the United States to assess how death investigators psychologically respond to different manners of death (N = 10,408 cases). Automated text analyses suggest investigators describe accidental deaths with more immediacy relative to homicides, while they also described suicidal deaths in less emotional terms than homicides as well. These data suggest medicolegal death investigators have different psychological reactions to circumstances and manners of death as indicated by their professional writing. Future research may surface context-specific psychological reactions to vicarious trauma that could inform the design or personalization of workplace-coping interventions.

Change in out-of-hospital 12-lead ECG diagnostic classification following resuscitation from cardiac arrest.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the incidence of change in serial 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnostic classifications in patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital (OH) cardiac arrest (OHCA) comparing OH to emergency department (ED) ECGs. METHODS: This retrospective case series included: 1) adults (≥ 18 years old), 2) resuscitated from OHCA, 3) ≥ 1 OH and 1 ED ECG/patient, and 4) emergency medical services (EMS) transport to the study hospital. OH and ED ECGs were classified as: 1) STEMI (ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction), 2) Ischemic, and 3) Non-ischemic. Two ED physicians and one cardiologist independently classified all ECGs, then generated a consensus opinion classification for each ECG based on American Heart Association's 2018 Expert Consensus criteria. The most ischemic OH ECG classification was compared with the last ED ECG classification. RESULTS: From 7/27/12 to 7/18/19, 176 patients were entered with a mean age of 61.2 ± 16.6 years; 102/176 (58%) were male. Overall, 504 OH and ED 12-lead ECGs were acquired (2.9 ECGs/patient). ECG classification inter-rater reliability kappa score was 0.63 ± 0.02 (substantial agreement). Overall, 86/176 (49%) changed ECG classification from the OH to ED setting; 69/86 (80%) of these ECGs changed from more to less ischemic classifications. Of 49 OH STEMI ECG classifications, 33/49 (67%) changed to a less ischemic (non-STEMI) ED ECG classification. CONCLUSIONS: Change in 12-lead ECG classification from OH to ED setting in patients resuscitated from OHCA was common (49%). The OH STEMI classification changed to a less ischemic (non-STEMI) ED classification in 67% of cases.

Innovative Approaches to Emergency Medical Services Fellowship Challenges.

INTRODUCTION: Since the development of an Accreditation Council of Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-accredited emergency medical services (EMS) fellowship, there has been little published literature on effective methods of content delivery or training modalities. Here we explore a variety of innovative approaches to the development and revision of the EMS fellowship curriculum. METHODS: Three academic, university-based ACGME-accredited EMS fellowship programs each implemented an innovative change to their existing training curricula. These changes included the following: a novel didactic curriculum delivery modality and evaluation; implementation of a distance education program to improve EMS fellows' rural EMS experiences; and modification of an existing EMS fellowship curriculum to train a non-emergency medicine physician. RESULTS: Changes made to each of the above EMS fellowship programs addressed unique challenges, demonstrating areas of success and promise for more generalized implementation of these curricula. Obstacles remain in tailoring the described curricula to the needs of each unique institution and system. CONCLUSION: Three separate curricula and program changes were implemented to overcome specific challenges and achieve educational goals. It is our hope that our shared experiences will enable others in addressing common barriers to teaching the EMS fellowship core content and share similar innovative approaches to educational challenges.

Self-Assessment Feedback Form Improves Quality of Out-of-Hospital CPR.

Objective: Various continuous quality improvement (CQI) approaches have been used to improve quality of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) delivered at the scene of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. We evaluated a post-event, self-assessment, CQI feedback form to determine its impact on delivery of CPR quality metrics. Methods: This before/after retrospective review evaluated data from a CQI program in a midsized urban emergency medical services (EMS) system using CPR quality metrics captured by Zoll Medical Inc. X-series defibrillator ECG files in adult patients (≥18 years old) with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Two 9-month periods, one before and one after implementation of the feedback form on December 31, 2013 were evaluated. Metrics included the mean and percentage of goal achievement for chest compression depth (goal: >5 centimeters [cm]; >90%/episode), rate (goal: 100-120 compressions/minute [min]), chest compression fraction (goal: ≥75%), and preshock pause (goal: <10 seconds [sec]). The feedback form was distributed to all EMS providers involved in the resuscitation within 72 hours for self-review. Results: A total of 439 encounters before and 621 encounters after were evaluated including basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS) providers. The Before Group consisted of 408 patients with an average age of 61 ± 17 years, 61.8% male. The After Group consisted of 556 patients with an average age of 61 ± 17 years, 58.3% male. Overall, combining BLS and ALS encounters, the mean CPR metric values before and after were: chest compression depth (5.0 cm vs. 5.5 cm; p < 0.001), rate (109.6/min vs 114.8/min; p < 0.001), fraction (79.2% vs. 86.4%; p < 0.001), and preshock pause (18.8 sec vs. 11.8 sec; p < 0.001), respectively. Overall, the percent goal achievement before and after were: chest compression depth (48.5% vs. 66.6%; p < 0.001), rate (71.8% vs. 71.7%, p = 0.78), fraction (68.1% vs. 91.0%; p < 0.001), and preshock pause (24.1% vs. 59.5%; p < 0.001), respectively. The BLS encounters and ALS encounters had similar statistically significant improvements seen in all metrics. Conclusion: This post-event, self-assessment CQI feedback form was associated with significant improvement in delivery of out-of-hospital CPR depth, fraction and preshock pause time.

Cocaine use in inner city african american research volunteers.

OBJECTIVES: : To determine the prevalence of cocaine use and associated risk factors in African Americans volunteering as research subjects for a hypertension study. METHODS: : African Americans recruited from Milwaukee's inner city received $25 for completing a blood pressure screening protocol with the potential to participate in an additional protocol for $200, contingent on a negative drug test for cocaine. This study is based on the characteristics of the participants who completed the drug screen for cocaine. The significance of differences in the frequencies of categorical variables between users and nonusers was determined by χ analysis or Fisher exact test. RESULTS: : Of 389 drug-tested participants, 35% tested positive for cocaine. Cocaine positive volunteers were slightly older (P = 0.02), had a lower body mass index (P = 0.001), a smaller waist circumference (P = 0.005), and lower serum cholesterol levels (P = 0.04). Those testing positive were more likely to be tobacco smokers (P < 0.0001), unemployed (P = 0.001), and alcohol users (P < 0.0001), but less likely to use prescription medications (P = 0.01). Income and education did not differ between cocaine positive and negative subjects. Individuals employed full-time were less likely to test positive than the unemployed, whereas part-time employees were intermediate (P = 0.0003). Although those testing positive were slightly less likely to have a living mother (P = 0.07), there was no association with living fathers.Cigarette smokers were almost five times more likely to test positive for cocaine than nonsmokers (OR 4.88, 95% CI 2.73-8.71). Additional predictors of positive tests were alcohol consumption (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.18-3.19), a reported history of substance abuse (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.05-3.19), and a family history that included one or more deceased siblings (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.03-3.21). CONCLUSIONS: : A high prevalence of substance use was detected among inner city African Americans offered financial incentives for participating in a general medical research protocol. This information may be relevant for designing future clinical trials and drug use intervention programs.