Drug overdoses, geographic trajectories, and the influence of built environment and neighborhood characteristics.

Much research has analyzed the spatial patterns of drug overdose events and identified features of the environment associated with heightened overdose levels. Generally absent from the literature are studies that analyze how unique trajectories of overdoses vary over time. We address this gap in the literature through an analysis of drug overdoses occurring in Passaic County, New Jersey from 2015 through 2019. A group-based trajectory analysis classifies block groups according to their overdose trends. A mixed-effects panel negative binomial regression model then examines the built environment and neighborhood characteristics associated with overall overdose levels. Results indicate that Passaic County block groups can be classified across three groups based upon their overdose levels over the study period: low and stable, low with moderate increase, and elevated and increasing. While the largest effects were observed for concentrated disadvantage in the regression analysis, most variables positively associated with overdose levels were built environment measures.

Clustering of adverse and positive childhood experiences: The nature and correlates of risk and protective factors.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increased attention paid to the separate effects of cumulative stress and protection on offending, the extent to which distinct clusters of risk and protective factors exist and have unique effects on justice-related outcomes is under-studied. OBJECTIVE: The current study examines for unique clustering of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) and Positive Childhood Experiences (PCE) and the extent to which they predict juvenile recidivism. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The sample consists of a cohort of youth adjudicated delinquent in Florida who received a community-based sanction. METHODS: The study first utilized latent-class analysis to identify distinct classes based upon the youths' ACE and PCE exposures. Next, two sets of regression models were estimated; the first investigated correlates of class membership and the second assessed whether class membership predicted recidivism. RESULTS: Seven distinct classes of ACE/PCE clusters were found, composing 9.9 % to 20.5 % of the sample each. Relative to the class with low ACE and low PCE, those with low ACEs and high PCE evidenced 27.5 % lower rearrest rates, as did the Moderate Risk/Moderate Protection group. CONCLUSIONS: Not only do distinct groupings of ACE and PCE exposures exist, but these groups have different likelihoods of future offending, where a youth's cumulative protection appears to be more important than their risk level. This has important policy implications as it offers further support for the use of strength-based treatment approaches.

Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis.

In early 2020, the world faced a rapid, life-changing, public health crisis in the form of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic and its associated social-distancing measures collided with a period of social unrest following the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police and persisted for nearly two years following its emergence. The current study adds to existing research by examining the effect of these events on the incidence of violence (shootings and assaults) in New York City (NYC) over a longer period of time, both in the city as a whole and at the borough-level. To accomplish this, the current study draws from publicly available data using series of analytical techniques to account for underlying trends, seasonality, and temperature while also estimating borough-specific effects. Results indicate that the prevalence of COVID-19 cases, associated social-distancing mandates, and the period of social unrest following Floyd's murder were associated with violence in NYC. Further, findings suggest while a number of the factors explored had consistent effects across each of NYC's five boroughs there was some evidence of heterogeneity. The implications for future research on the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed.

Adverse Childhood Experiences Distinguish Violent Juvenile Sexual Offenders' Victim Typologies.

Juvenile perpetrators account for over 25% of all sexual offenses, and over one-third of such offenses are against victims under the age of 18. Given empirical connections between adverse childhood experience (ACE) exposure and perpetration of violence, we create victim typologies based on the juveniles' relationship to their victims among 5539 justice-involved adolescents who have committed violent against-person sexual felonies. Multinomial logistic regression is used to assess which covariates, including individual ACE exposures and cumulative traumatic exposures, are associated with victim typologies. This approach allows for better targeting of violence prevention efforts, as a more nuanced understanding of the increased likelihood to victimize specific victim groups lends to potential differences in treatment provision, beyond simplistic findings regarding ACE exposure increasing offending. Results indicate five classes of victim types, ranging from a low of 6.4%, with primarily strangers as victims, to 31.3%, with predominately acquaintances as victims, and only 12.9% with a diverse array of relationships to victims. Importantly, many demographic and individual risk factors, and specific traumatic exposures were related to victimizing one's sibling, while cumulative trauma as measured by an ACE score decreased the likelihood of victimizing classmates, while increasing the likelihood of victimizing siblings and other relatives compared to victimizing acquaintances.

The Effects of Neighborhood Context on Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Among Adolescents Involved in the Juvenile Justice System: Latent Classes and Contextual Effects.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been identified as a key risk factor associated with a wide range of negative life outcomes, including juvenile delinquency. Much less work has explored whether certain combinations of ACEs, or typologies of trauma, exist, and whether or not these subgroups are differentially associated with certain youth-level and/or community-level characteristics. The current study uses latent class analysis to examine ACE typologies among a sample of over 92,000 juvenile offenders between the ages of 10 and 18 in the state of Florida (52% male, 37.3% White, 46.8% Black, 15.9% Hispanic). Multilevel multinomial logistic regression is used to assess the relationship between both individual- and community-level factors and class membership. The findings suggest that a total of five distinct ACE typologies exist among the sample of juvenile offenders, and age, race, and sex were significantly associated with class membership. Additionally, controlling for individual-level characteristics, community-level measures of immigrant concentration, residential instability, and two separate measures of concentrated disadvantage and affluence were significantly related to class membership. This study contributes to the understanding of adverse childhood experiences, and adds to existing knowledge regarding the relationship between contextual factors and childhood abuse, maltreatment, and trauma. The identification of ACE subgroups with distinct characteristics may help guide prevention strategies and tailor treatment provided by the juvenile justice system.

Does the Effect of Justice System Attitudes on Adolescent Crime Vary Based on Psychosocial Maturity?

Adolescents who view the justice system negatively are prone to commit crime. Simultaneously, youth who have difficulty regulating their behavior are likely to commit crime. Using a longitudinal sample of 1,216 male adolescents (ages 13-17) who had been arrested for the first time, were racially/ethnically diverse, and were drawn from three U.S. states, this study incorporated a developmental perspective into the procedural justice framework to examine whether psychosocial immaturity moderated the effect of justice system attitudes on youth crime. Attitudes toward the justice system were associated with reoffending among psychosocially mature youth, but not among psychosocially immature youth. This developmental perspective indicates that psychosocially immature youth who have difficulty regulating their behavior may be at risk of engaging in crime regardless of how they perceive the justice system.

Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders.

While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%-8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention.

The Relationship Between Adverse Childhood Experiences and Recidivism in a Sample of Juvenile Offenders in Community-Based Treatment.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been identified as a key risk factor for a range of negative life outcomes, including delinquency. Much less is known about how exposure to negative experiences relates to continued offending among juvenile offenders. In this study, we examine the effect of ACEs on recidivism in a large sample of previously referred youth from the State of Florida who were followed for 1 year after participation in community-based treatment. Results from a series of Cox hazard models suggest that ACEs increase the risk of subsequent arrest, with a higher prevalence of ACEs leading to a shorter time to recidivism. The relationship between ACEs and recidivism held quite well in demographic-specific analyses. Implications for empirical research on the long-term effects of traumatic childhood events and juvenile justice policy are discussed.

The Mobility of Youth in the Justice System: Implications for Recidivism.

Both residential mobility and community disadvantage have been shown to be associated with negative outcomes for adolescents generally and juvenile offenders specifically. The current study examines the effects of moving among a large sample (n = 13,096) of previously adjudicated youth (31.6 % female, 41.2 % Black, 16.5 % Hispanic). Additionally, we examine whether moving upward to a more affluent neighborhood, moving downward to an area of greater disadvantage, or moving laterally to a similar neighborhood tempers the effects of residential mobility. We use a combination of analytical techniques, including propensity score matching to untangle the effects of mobility sans pre-existing conditions between movers and non-movers. Results show relocation increases recidivism, irrespective of the direction of the move with regard to socioeconomic context. Moving upward has the most detrimental impact for adjudicated male adolescents, while downward relocations evidenced the largest effect for female youth. Implications for policy and future research needs are discussed.

Juvenile animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour.

BACKGROUND: There is a view that young people presenting with an animal cruelty and firesetting combination represent a uniquely risky group, but prior work has relied on samples with insufficient power. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the prevalence of the co-occurrence of animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour among young delinquents? What other features correlate with this? METHODS: We measured the prevalence of animal cruelty and firesetting among 292,649 juvenile offenders and used rare events logistic regression to examine demographic, criminal, mental health and family histories as correlates. RESULTS: The prevalence of animal cruelty was 0.59%, accounting for 1732 young people, and of firesetting 1.56% (n = 4553). The co-occurrence of these behaviours was rare: 0.17% (n = 498), but approximately twice that expected by chance based on the prevalence of each behaviour individually (0.59% × 1.56% = 0.009%). Rates were higher in males, older youths and Whites. Among historical variables, criminal history was the strongest correlate, followed by mental health problems, then familial and individual indicators. CONCLUSIONS: As only male gender and being a victim of sexual abuse increased the odds of evidencing both animal cruelty and firesetting behaviour substantially above the odds for each behaviour individually, there thus appears to be little that is unique to the co-occurrence. Our findings suggest that sensitivity to the occurrence of each is the best way forward, with rather familiar assessments and interventions offering some hope of reducing these seriously damaging behaviours. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Racial/Ethnic Disproportionality in Psychiatric Diagnoses and Treatment in a Sample of Serious Juvenile Offenders.

Psychiatric disorder prevalence has been shown demonstrably higher among justice-involved adolescents than youth in the general population. Yet, among arrested juveniles, little is known regarding racial/ethnic differences in disorder prevalence, the role of trauma exposure in the diagnosis of behavioral disorders, or subsequent psychiatric treatment provided to adolescents with such diagnoses. The current study examines racial/ethnic disparity in psychiatric diagnoses and treatment of behavioral disorders associated with delinquency, controlling for traumatic experiences, behavioral indicators, and prior offending among serious juvenile offenders. Logistic regression is employed to explore the racial/ethnic disproportionality in behavioral disorder diagnoses and psychiatric treatment provision among 8763 males (57.7 % Black, 11.8 % Hispanic) and 1,347 females (53.7 % Black, 7.6 % Hispanic) admitted to long-term juvenile justice residential placements in Florida. The results indicate Black males are 40 % more likely, and Black females 54 % more likely to be diagnosed with conduct disorder than Whites, even upon considerations of trauma, behavioral indicators, and criminal offending. Black and Hispanic males are approximately 40 % less likely to be diagnosed with ADHD than White males, with no racial/ethnic differences for females. Importantly, Black males are 32 % less likely to receive psychiatric treatment than White males, with no differences between White and Hispanic males, or any female subgroups. Traumatic exposures increased the odds of oppositional defiant disorder and ADHD, but not conduct disorder for males, though adverse childhood experiences were unrelated to behavioral disorder diagnoses among females.

Maltreatment, Child Welfare, and Recidivism in a Sample of Deep-End Crossover Youth.

Although research has oft-documented a maltreatment-delinquency link, the effect of involvement in-and timing of-child welfare system involvement on offending has received less attention. We examine whether the timing of child welfare involvement has differential effects on recidivism of deep-end juvenile offenders (youth who have been adjudicated delinquent by the court and placed in juvenile justice residential programs). The current study uses a large, diverse sample of 12,955 youth completing juvenile justice residential programs between 1 January 2010 and 30 June 2013 in Florida (13 % female, 55 % Black, 11 % Hispanic). Additionally, we explore the direct effects of childhood traumatic events on delinquency, as well as their indirect effects through child welfare involvement using structural equation modeling. The findings indicate that adverse childhood experiences fail to exert a direct effect on recidivism, but do exhibit a significant indirect effect on recidivism through child welfare involvement, which is itself associated with recidivism. This means that while having exposures to more types of childhood traumatic events does not, in and of itself, increase the likelihood of re-offending, effects of such experiences operate through child welfare placement. Differences in the effects of maltreatment timing and of adverse childhood experiences are observed across sex and race/ethnicity subgroups. Across all racial subgroups, exposures to adverse childhood experiences have a significant effect on the likelihood of child welfare placement, yet child welfare placement exerts a significant effect on recidivism for White and Hispanic youth, but not for Black youth. Only Hispanic female and White male youth with overlapping child welfare and juvenile justice cases (open cases in both systems at the same time during the study period) were more likely to recidivate than their delinquent-only counterpart youth. Crossover status (child welfare and juvenile justice involvement, whether prior or open cases) was essentially irrelevant with respect to the re-offending of Black youth completing juvenile justice residential programs. The findings indicate the effects of exposure to adverse childhood experiences, and child welfare system and juvenile justice system involvement on re-offending are not uniform across subgroups of youth but that earlier child welfare involvement is more detrimental than concurrent child welfare system involvement when it does matter.

The contemporary foreclosure crisis and US crime rates.

Foreclosure rates in America reached unprecedented levels during the last half of the 2000s, and many observers have speculated that elevated crime rates were one of the probable negative collateral consequences of this trend. We examine this issue with a comprehensive county-level analysis of the role of foreclosure in shaping contemporary crime patterns, highlighting the possibility of theoretically informed non-linear and conditional relationships. Multivariate regression models that account for the well-documented spatial autocorrelation of crime rates and the possible endogeneity of foreclosure reveal a positive association between rates of foreclosure and property crime that accelerates significantly once foreclosure rates attain historically high levels. Multiplicative models indicate that this pattern holds for burglary across diverse county conditions, but the observed non-linear effect of foreclosure on robbery rates is limited primarily to areas that also exhibit relatively high levels of resource deprivation and limited new housing construction.