Validation of case-ascertainment algorithms using health administrative data to identify people who inject drugs in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Health administrative data can be used to improve the health of people who inject drugs by informing public health surveillance and program planning, monitoring, and evaluation. However, methodological gaps in the use of these data persist due to challenges in accurately identifying injection drug use (IDU) at the population level. In this study, we validated case-ascertainment algorithms for identifying people who inject drugs using health administrative data in Ontario, Canada. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Data from cohorts of people with recent (past 12 months) IDU, including those participating in community-based research studies or seeking drug treatment, were linked to health administrative data in Ontario from 1992 to 2020. We assessed the validity of algorithms to identify IDU over varying look-back periods (ie, all years of data [1992 onwards] or within the past 1-5 years), including inpatient and outpatient physician billing claims for drug use, emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations for drug use or injection-related infections, and opioid agonist treatment (OAT). RESULTS: Algorithms were validated using data from 15,241 people with recent IDU (918 in community cohorts and 14,323 seeking drug treatment). An algorithm consisting of ≥1 physician visit, ED visit, or hospitalization for drug use, or OAT record could effectively identify IDU history (91.6% sensitivity and 94.2% specificity) and recent IDU (using 3-year look back: 80.4% sensitivity, 99% specificity) among community cohorts. Algorithms were generally more sensitive among people who inject drugs seeking drug treatment. CONCLUSION: Validated algorithms using health administrative data performed well in identifying people who inject drugs. Despite their high sensitivity and specificity, the positive predictive value of these algorithms will vary depending on the underlying prevalence of IDU in the population in which they are applied.

Design and conduct of a randomized controlled feeding trial in a residential setting with mitigation for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating effects of different macronutrient diets in randomized trials requires well defined infrastructure and rigorous methods to ensure intervention fidelity and adherence. METHODS: This controlled feeding study comprised two phases. During a Run-in phase (14-15 weeks), study participants (18-50 years, BMI, ≥27 kg/m2) consumed a very-low-carbohydrate (VLC) diet, with home delivery of prepared meals, at an energy level to promote 15 ± 3% weight loss. During a Residential phase (13 weeks), participants resided at a conference center. They received a eucaloric VLC diet for three weeks and then were randomized to isocaloric test diets for 10 weeks: VLC (5% energy from carbohydrate, 77% from fat), high-carbohydrate (HC)-Starch (57%, 25%; including 20% energy from refined grains), or HC-Sugar (57%, 25%; including 20% sugar). Outcomes included measures of body composition and energy expenditure, chronic disease risk factors, and variables pertaining to physiological mechanisms. Six cores provided infrastructure for implementing standardized protocols: Recruitment, Diet and Meal Production, Participant Support, Assessments, Regulatory Affairs and Data Management, and Statistics. The first participants were enrolled in May 2018. Participants residing at the conference center at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic completed the study, with each core implementing mitigation plans. RESULTS: Before early shutdown, 77 participants were randomized, and 70 completed the trial (65% of planned completion). Process measures indicated integrity to protocols for weighing menu items, within narrow tolerance limits, and participant adherence, assessed by direct observation and continuous glucose monitoring. CONCLUSION: Available data will inform future research, albeit with less statistical power than originally planned.

Hepatitis C Attributable Healthcare Costs and Mortality among Immigrants: A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study.

Background: Data on the economic burden of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) among immigrants are limited. Our objective was to estimate the CHC-attributable mortality and healthcare costs among immigrants in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We conducted a population-based matched cohort study among immigrants diagnosed with CHC between May 31, 2003, and December 31, 2018, using linked health administrative data. Immigrants with CHC (exposed) were matched 1 : 1 to immigrants without CHC (unexposed) using a combination of hard (index date, sex, and age) and propensity-score matching. Net costs (2020 Canadian dollars) collected from the healthcare payer perspective were calculated using a phase-of-care approach and used to estimate long-term costs adjusted for survival. Results: We matched 5,575 exposed individuals with unexposed controls, achieving a balanced match. The mean age was 47 years, and 52% was male. On average, 10.5% of exposed and 3.5% of unexposed individuals died 15 years postindex (relative risk = 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.6-3.5). The net 30-day costs per person were $88 (95% CI: 55 to 122) for the prediagnosis, $324 (95% CI: 291 to 356) for the initial phase, $1,016 (95% CI: 900 to 1,132) for the late phase, and $975 (95% CI: -25 to 1,974) for the terminal phase. The mean net healthcare cost adjusted for survival at 15 years was $90,448. Conclusions: Compared to unexposed immigrants, immigrants infected with CHC have higher mortality rates and greater healthcare costs. These findings will support the planning of HCV elimination efforts among key risk groups in the province.

CAR T-cell Therapy for Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma in Canada: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is a novel cell therapy for treating non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The development of CAR T-cell therapy has transformed oncology treatment by offering a potential cure. However, due to the high cost of these therapies, and the large number of eligible patients, decision makers are faced with difficult funding decisions. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel for adults with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in Canada using updated survival data from the recent JULIET trial. METHODS: We developed an individual-simulated discrete event simulation model to assess the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) of tisagenlecleucel compared with salvage chemotherapy. Survival estimates were obtained from a published clinical trial and retrospective analysis. If patients remained progression free for 5 y, they were assumed to be in long-term remission. Costing and utility data were obtained from reports and published sources. A Canadian health care payer perspective was used, and outcomes were modeled over a lifetime horizon. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 1.5% annually, with costs reported in 2021 Canadian dollars. A probabilistic analysis was used, and model parameters were varied in 1-way sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses. RESULTS: After we incorporated the latest clinical evidence, tisagenlecleucel led to an additional cost of $503,417 and additional effectiveness of 2.48 QALYs, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $202,991 compared with salvage chemotherapy. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY, tisagenlecleucel had a 0% likelihood of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: At the current drug price, tisagenlecleucel was not found to be a cost-effective option. These results heavily depend on assumptions regarding long-term survival and the price of CAR T. Real-world evidence is needed to reduce uncertainty. HIGHLIGHTS: For patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma who failed 2 or more lines of systemic therapy, CAR T was not found to be a cost-effective treatment option at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000.These results heavily depend on the expected long-term survival. The uncertainty in the model may be improved using real-world evidence reported in the future.

An economic evaluation of community pharmacy-dispensed naloxone in Canada.

Aims: To determine the cost-effectiveness of pharmacy-based intranasal (IN) and intramuscular (IM) naloxone distribution in Canada. Methods: We developed a state-transition model for pharmacy-based naloxone distribution, every 3 years, to illicit, prescription, opioid-agonist therapy and nonopioid use populations compared to no naloxone distribution. We used a monthly cycle length, lifetime horizon and a Canadian provincial Ministry of Health perspective. Transition probabilities, cost and utility data were retrieved from the literature. Costs (2020) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were discounted 1.5% annually. Microsimulation, 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Distribution of naloxone to all Canadians compared to no distribution prevented 151 additional overdose deaths per 10,000 persons, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $50,984 per QALY for IM naloxone and an ICER of $126,060 per QALY for IN naloxone. Distribution of any naloxone to only illicit opioid users was the most cost-effective. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that survival rates for illicit opioid users were most influenced by the availability of either emergency medical services or naloxone. Conclusion: Distribution of IM and IN naloxone to all Canadians every 3 years is likely cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $140,000 Canadian dollars/QALY (~3 × gross domestic product from the World Health Organization). Distribution to people who use illicit opioids was most cost-effective and prevented the most deaths. This is important, as more overdose deaths could be prevented through nationwide public funding of IN naloxone kits through pharmacies, since individuals report a preference for IN naloxone and these formulations are easier to use, save lives and are cost-effective. Can Pharm J (Ott) 2024;157:xx-xx.

Feasibility of hepatitis C elimination by screening and treatment alone in high-income countries.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the availability of highly effective direct-acting antiviral therapy, chronic hepatitis C (CHC) continues to cause a major public health burden. In many high-income countries, treatment rates have been declining, which was exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening the ability to meet the World Health Organization (WHO)'s targets for eliminating HCV as a public health threat by 2030. We sought to model the impact of CHC in Canada, a resource-rich country with ongoing immigration from HCV-endemic regions; which relies exclusively on risk-based screening for case identification. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We developed an agent-based model to characterize the HCV epidemic in a high-income country with ongoing immigration. Combinations of prevention such as harm reduction, screening, and treatment strategies were considered. Model parameters were estimated from the literature and calibrated against historical HCV data. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. Under the current status quo of risk-based screening, we predict the incidence of CHC-induced decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related deaths would decrease by 79.4%, 76.1%, and 62.1%, respectively, between 2015 and 2030, but CHC incidence would only decrease by 11.1%. The results were sensitive to HCV transmission rate and an annual number of people initiating treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk-based screening, and subsequent treatment, will be inadequate to achieve WHO goals. With extensive scale-up in screening, and treatment, the mortality target may be achievable, but the target for preventing new CHC cases is unlikely reachable, highlighting the importance of developing enhanced harm-reduction strategies for HCV elimination.

Impact of new direct-acting antiviral therapy on the prevalence and undiagnosed proportion of chronic hepatitis C infection.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) can be cured with the new highly effective interferon-free combination treatments (DAA) that were approved in 2014. However, CHC is a largely silent disease, and many individuals are unaware of their infections until the late stages of the disease. The impact of wider access to effective treatments and improved awareness of the disease on the number of infections and the number of patients who remain undiagnosed is not known in Canada. Such evidence can guide the development of strategies and interventions to reduce the burden of CHC and meet World Health Organization's (WHO) 2030 elimination targets. The purpose of this study is to use a back-calculation framework informed by provincial population-level health administrative data to estimate the prevalence of CHC and the proportion of cases that remain undiagnosed in the three most populated provinces in Canada: British Columbia (BC), Ontario and Quebec. METHODS: We have conducted a population-based retrospective analysis of health administrative data for the three provinces to generate the annual incidence of newly diagnosed CHC cases, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV treatment initiations. For each province, the data were stratified in three birth cohorts: individuals born prior to 1945, individuals born between 1945 and 1965 and individuals born after 1965. We used a back-calculation modelling approach to estimate prevalence and the undiagnosed proportion of CHC. The historical prevalence of CHC was inferred through a calibration process based on a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The algorithm constructs the historical prevalence of CHC for each cohort by comparing the model-generated outcomes of the annual incidence of the CHC-related health events against the data set of observed diagnosed cases generated in the retrospective analysis. RESULTS: The results show a decreasing trend in both CHC prevalence and undiagnosed proportion in BC, Ontario and Quebec. In 2018, CHC prevalence was estimated to be 1.23% (95% CI: .96%-1.62%), .91% (95% CI: .82%-1.04%) and .57% (95% CI: .51%-.64%) in BC, Ontario and Quebec respectively. The CHC undiagnosed proportion was assessed to be 35.44% (95% CI: 27.07%-45.83%), 34.28% (95% CI: 26.74%-41.62%) and 46.32% (95% CI: 37.85%-52.80%) in BC, Ontario and Quebec, respectively, in 2018. Also, since the introduction of new DAA treatment in 2014, CHC prevalence decreased from 1.39% to 1.23%, .97% to .91% and .65% to .57% in BC, Ontario and Quebec respectively. Similarly, the CHC undiagnosed proportion decreased from 38.78% to 35.44%, 38.70% to 34.28% and 47.54% to 46.32% in BC, Ontario and Quebec, respectively, from 2014 to 2018. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that the CHC prevalence and undiagnosed proportion have declined for all three provinces since the new DAA treatment has been approved in 2014. Yet, our findings show that a significant proportion of HCV cases remain undiagnosed across all provinces highlighting the need to increase investment in screening. Our findings provide essential evidence to guide decisions about current and future HCV strategies and help achieve the WHO goal of eliminating hepatitis C in Canada by 2030.

Technical note: Generalizable and promptable artificial intelligence model to augment clinical delineation in radiation oncology.

BACKGROUND: Efficient and accurate delineation of organs at risk (OARs) is a critical procedure for treatment planning and dose evaluation. Deep learning-based auto-segmentation of OARs has shown promising results and is increasingly being used in radiation therapy. However, existing deep learning-based auto-segmentation approaches face two challenges in clinical practice: generalizability and human-AI interaction. A generalizable and promptable auto-segmentation model, which segments OARs of multiple disease sites simultaneously and supports on-the-fly human-AI interaction, can significantly enhance the efficiency of radiation therapy treatment planning. PURPOSE: Meta's segment anything model (SAM) was proposed as a generalizable and promptable model for next-generation natural image segmentation. We further evaluated the performance of SAM in radiotherapy segmentation. METHODS: Computed tomography (CT) images of clinical cases from four disease sites at our institute were collected: prostate, lung, gastrointestinal, and head & neck. For each case, we selected the OARs important in radiotherapy treatment planning. We then compared both the Dice coefficients and Jaccard indices derived from three distinct methods: manual delineation (ground truth), automatic segmentation using SAM's 'segment anything' mode, and automatic segmentation using SAM's 'box prompt' mode that implements manual interaction via live prompts during segmentation. RESULTS: Our results indicate that SAM's segment anything mode can achieve clinically acceptable segmentation results in most OARs with Dice scores higher than 0.7. SAM's box prompt mode further improves Dice scores by 0.1∼0.5. Similar results were observed for Jaccard indices. The results show that SAM performs better for prostate and lung, but worse for gastrointestinal and head & neck. When considering the size of organs and the distinctiveness of their boundaries, SAM shows better performance for large organs with distinct boundaries, such as lung and liver, and worse for smaller organs with less distinct boundaries, like parotid and cochlea. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate SAM's robust generalizability with consistent accuracy in automatic segmentation for radiotherapy. Furthermore, the advanced box-prompt method enables the users to augment auto-segmentation interactively and dynamically, leading to patient-specific auto-segmentation in radiation therapy. SAM's generalizability across different disease sites and different modalities makes it feasible to develop a generic auto-segmentation model in radiotherapy.

Characterising the effectiveness of social determinants of health-focused hepatitis B interventions: a systematic review.

Social determinants of health are important in designing effective interventions for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This systematic review characterises equity-oriented, social determinants of health-focused HBV interventions, and describes their effectiveness in terms of the prevention, care, or treatment of HBV in high-income countries. We searched electronic databases for central concepts of 'HBV', 'equity', 'social determinants of health', 'intervention', and 'Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries'. Screening and data abstraction were conducted independently by two reviewers. Data were abstracted from 66 studies; articles with a comparative study design (n=36) were included in the narrative synthesis, highlighting social determinants of health domains of interventions, HBV-relevant health outcomes, and extra-health social determinants of health effects (ie, those effects that extend beyond health outcomes). Synthesis aligned with six emergent themes corresponding to HBV prevention and care: knowledge and education, diagnosis and screening, immunisation, care initiation, engagement with clinical care and treatment, and upstream prevention. Studies presented a heterogeneous array of HBV-relevant health outcomes. Most interventions were tailored for social determinants of health domains of race, ethnicity, culture, and language; drug use; and socioeconomic status. Across the themes, at least two-thirds of interventions showed comparative effectiveness for addressing HBV. Extra-health social determinants of health outcomes were observed for two studies. Considerable diversity in population-level approaches was observed regarding intervention goals and effectiveness; most interventions were effective at enhancing the prevention, care, or treatment of HBV.

Modelling small block aperture in an in-house developed GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo-based dose engine for pencil beam scanning proton therapy.

Purpose. To enhance an in-house graphic-processing-unit accelerated virtual particle (VP)-based Monte Carlo (MC) proton dose engine (VPMC) to model aperture blocks in both dose calculation and optimization for pencil beam scanning proton therapy (PBSPT)-based stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS).Methods and materials. A module to simulate VPs passing through patient-specific aperture blocks was developed and integrated in VPMC based on simulation results of realistic particles (primary protons and their secondaries). To validate the aperture block module, VPMC was first validated by an opensource MC code, MCsquare, in eight water phantom simulations with 3 cm thick brass apertures: four were with aperture openings of 1, 2, 3, and 4 cm without a range shifter, while the other four were with same aperture opening configurations with a range shifter of 45 mm water equivalent thickness. Then, VPMC was benchmarked with MCsquare and RayStation MC for 10 patients with small targets (average volume 8.4 c.c. with range of 0.4-43.3 c.c.). Finally, 3 typical patients were selected for robust optimization with aperture blocks using VPMC.Results. In the water phantoms, 3D gamma passing rate (2%/2 mm/10%) between VPMC and MCsquare was 99.71 ± 0.23%. In the patient geometries, 3D gamma passing rates (3%/2 mm/10%) between VPMC/MCsquare and RayStation MC were 97.79 ± 2.21%/97.78 ± 1.97%, respectively. Meanwhile, the calculation time was drastically decreased from 112.45 ± 114.08 s (MCsquare) to 8.20 ± 6.42 s (VPMC) with the same statistical uncertainties of ~0.5%. The robustly optimized plans met all the dose-volume-constraints (DVCs) for the targets and OARs per our institutional protocols. The mean calculation time for 13 influence matrices in robust optimization by VPMC was 41.6 s and the subsequent on-the-fly 'trial-and-error' optimization procedure took only 71.4 s on average for the selected three patients.Conclusion. VPMC has been successfully enhanced to model aperture blocks in dose calculation and optimization for the PBSPT-based SRS.

Physician- and Patient-Reported Outcomes of the MC1635 Phase 3 Trial of Ultrahypofractionated Versus Moderately Hypofractionated Adjuvant Radiation Therapy After Breast-Conserving Surgery.

PURPOSE: Our aim was to report physician- and patient-reported outcomes of patients with localized breast cancer treated with moderate versus ultrahypofractionated whole breast irradiation (WBI) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between February 2018 and February 2020, patients with localized breast cancer (pT0-3 pN0-1 M0) were offered participation in a phase 3 randomized clinical trial assessing adjuvant moderate hypofractionation (MHF) to 40 Gy in 15 fractions versus ultrahypofractionation (UHF) to 25 Gy in 5 fractions after BCS, with an optional simultaneously integrated boost. Toxicities, cosmesis, and quality of life were assessed at baseline, end of treatment (EOT), and 3 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years from irradiation using validated metric tools. RESULTS: One hundred seven patients were randomized to MHF (n = 54) or UHF (n = 53) adjuvant WBI. The median follow-up was 42.8 months. Grade 2 radiation dermatitis was experienced by 4 patients (7.4%) in the MHF arm and 2 patients (3.7%) in the UHF arm at EOT (P = .726). No grade 3 or higher toxicities were observed. Deterioration of cosmesis by physician assessment was observed in 2 (6.7%) patients treated in the UHF arm and 1 (1.9%) patient treated in the MHF arm at EOT (P = .534), whereas at 3 months, only 1 (1.8%) patient treated in the MHF arm demonstrated deterioration of cosmesis (P = .315). At EOT, 91% and 94% of patients reported excellent/good cosmesis among those treated with MHF and UHF regimens, respectively (P = .550). At 3 months, more patients within the MHF arm reported excellent/good cosmesis compared with those in the UHF arm (100% vs 91%; P = .030). However, the difference in patient-reported cosmesis disappeared at the 1-, 2-, and 3-year time points. CONCLUSIONS: UHF WBI showed similar treatment-related late toxicities and similar provider-scored cosmesis compared with MHF radiation in patients treated adjuvantly after BCS.

Beam mask and sliding window-facilitated deep learning-based accurate and efficient dose prediction for pencil beam scanning proton therapy.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and efficient dose calculation is essential for on-line adaptive planning in proton therapy. Deep learning (DL) has shown promising dose prediction results in photon therapy. However, there is a scarcity of DL-based dose prediction methods specifically designed for proton therapy. Successful dose prediction method for proton therapy should account for more challenging dose prediction problems in pencil beam scanning proton therapy (PBSPT) due to its sensitivity to heterogeneities. PURPOSE: To develop a DL-based PBSPT dose prediction workflow with high accuracy and balanced complexity to support on-line adaptive proton therapy clinical decision and subsequent replanning. METHODS: PBSPT plans of 103 prostate cancer patients (93 for training and the other 10 for independent testing) and 83 lung cancer patients (73 for training and the other 10 for independent testing) previously treated at our institution were included in the study, each with computed tomography scans (CTs), structure sets, and plan doses calculated by the in-house developed Monte-Carlo dose engine (considered as the ground truth in the model training and testing). For the ablation study, we designed three experiments corresponding to the following three methods: (1) Experiment 1, the conventional region of interest (ROI) (composed of targets and organs-at-risk [OARs]) method. (2) Experiment 2, the beam mask (generated by raytracing of proton beams) method to improve proton dose prediction. (3) Experiment 3, the sliding window method for the model to focus on local details to further improve proton dose prediction. A fully connected 3D-Unet was adopted as the backbone. Dose volume histogram (DVH) indices, 3D Gamma passing rates with a criterion of 3%/3 mm/10%, and dice coefficients for the structures enclosed by the iso-dose lines between the predicted and the ground truth doses were used as the evaluation metrics. The calculation time for each proton dose prediction was recorded to evaluate the method's efficiency. RESULTS: Compared to the conventional ROI method, the beam mask method improved the agreement of DVH indices for both targets and OARs and the sliding window method further improved the agreement of the DVH indices (for lung cancer, CTV D98 absolute deviation: 0.74 ± 0.18 vs. 0.57 ± 0.21 vs. 0.54 ± 0.15 Gy[RBE], ROI vs. beam mask vs. sliding window methods, respectively). For the 3D Gamma passing rates in the target, OARs, and BODY (outside target and OARs), the beam mask method improved the passing rates in these regions and the sliding window method further improved them (for prostate cancer, targets: 96.93% ± 0.53% vs. 98.88% ± 0.49% vs. 99.97% ± 0.07%, BODY: 86.88% ± 0.74% vs. 93.21% ± 0.56% vs. 95.17% ± 0.59%). A similar trend was also observed for the dice coefficients. This trend was especially remarkable for relatively low prescription isodose lines (for lung cancer, 10% isodose line dice: 0.871 ± 0.027 vs. 0.911 ± 0.023 vs. 0.927 ± 0.017). The dose predictions for all the testing cases were completed within 0.25 s. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate and efficient deep learning-augmented proton dose prediction framework has been developed for PBSPT, which can predict accurate dose distributions not only inside but also outside ROI efficiently. The framework can potentially further reduce the initial planning and adaptive replanning workload in PBSPT.

An Exploratory Analysis of the Cost-Effectiveness of a Multi-cancer Early Detection Blood Test Compared with Standard of Care Screening in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Determining whether multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are cost effective is important in deciding whether they should be included in the clinical path of cancer care, especially for cancers where screening tools do not exist. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study is to determine the cost effectiveness of including a MCED screening regimen together with existing provincial screening protocols for selected cancers that are prevalent in Ontario, Canada, among average risk persons aged 50-75 years. The selected cancers include breast, colorectal, lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, stomach, and ovarian. METHODS: Cost effectiveness was estimated from a provincial Ministry of Health perspective. A state-transition Markov model representing the decision path of both the proposed and existing screening strategies along the natural history of the selected types of cancers was implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated using data from available literature and the guidelines published by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis, which included a discount rate of 1.5% applied to all costs and outcomes. Costs were also converted to 2022 Canadian dollars. To test the robustness of the model, both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: MCED screening resulted in more diagnosed cases of each type of cancer, even at an earlier stage of disease. This was also associated with fewer related deaths compared with standard of care. Notwithstanding, the analysis revealed that the MCED intervention was not cost effective [ICER: CAD$143,369 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY)], given a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that the MCED intervention strategy was preferred to standard of care no more than 2% of the time at this WTP for both males and females. The model was most sensitive to the cost of MCED screening, and the levels of specificity of the MCED and colorectal cancer screening tests. CONCLUSION: The main contribution of the study is to present and execute a methodological approach that can be adopted to test the cost effectiveness of an MCED tool in the Canadian setting. The model is also sufficiently generic that it could be adapted to other jurisdictions, and with consideration for increasing the WTP threshold beyond the common $100,000 per QALY limit, given the life-threatening nature of cancer, to ensure that MCED interventions are cost-effective.

The impact of the early COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare system resource use and costs in two provinces in Canada: An interrupted time series analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of our study was to assess the initial impact of COVID-19 on total publicly-funded direct healthcare costs and health services use in two Canadian provinces, Ontario and British Columbia (BC). METHODS: This retrospective repeated cross-sectional study used population-based administrative datasets, linked within each province, from January 1, 2018 to December 27, 2020. Interrupted time series analysis was used to estimate changes in the level and trends of weekly resource use and costs, with March 16-22, 2020 as the first pandemic week. Also, in each week of 2020, we identified cases with their first positive SARS-CoV-2 test and estimated their healthcare costs until death or December 27, 2020. RESULTS: The resources with the largest level declines (95% confidence interval) in use in the first pandemic week compared to the previous week were physician services [Ontario: -43% (-49%,-37%); BC: -24% (-30%,-19%) (both p<0.001)] and emergency department visits [Ontario: -41% (-47%,-35%); BC: -29% (-35%,-23%) (both p<0.001)]. Hospital admissions declined by 27% (-32%,-23%) in Ontario and 21% (-26%,-16%) in BC (both p<0.001). Resource use subsequently rose but did not return to pre-pandemic levels. Only home care and dialysis clinic visits did not significantly decrease compared to pre-pandemic. Costs for COVID-19 cases represented 1.3% and 0.7% of total direct healthcare costs in 2020 in Ontario and BC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced utilization of healthcare services in the overall population outweighed utilization by COVID-19 patients in 2020. Meeting the needs of all patients across all services is essential to maintain resilient healthcare systems.

Conventional versus hypofractionated postmastectomy proton radiotherapy in the USA (MC1631): a randomised phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Proton therapy is under investigation in breast cancer as a strategy to reduce radiation exposure to the heart and lungs. So far, studies investigating proton postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) have used conventional fractionation over 25-28 days, but whether hypofractionated proton PMRT is feasible is unclear. We aimed to compare conventional fractionation and hypofractionation in patients with indications for PMRT, including those with immediate breast reconstruction. METHODS: We did a randomised phase 2 trial (MC1631) at Mayo Clinic in Rochester (MN, USA) and Mayo Clinic in Arizona (Phoenix, AZ, USA) comparing conventional fractionated (50 Gy in 25 fractions of 2 Gy [relative biological effectiveness of 1·1]) and hypofractionated (40·05 Gy in 15 fractions of 2·67 Gy [relative biological effectiveness of 1·1]) proton PMRT. All patients were treated with pencil-beam scanning. Eligibility criteria included age 18 years or older, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2, and breast cancer resected by mastectomy with or without immediate reconstruction with indications for PMRT. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either conventional fractionation or hypofractionation, with presence of immediate reconstruction (yes vs no) as a stratification factor, using a biased-coin minimisation algorithm. Any patient who received at least one fraction of protocol treatment was evaluable for the primary endpoint and safety analyses. The primary endpoint was 24-month complication rate from the date of first radiotherapy, defined as grade 3 or worse adverse events occurring from 90 days after last radiotherapy or unplanned surgical interventions in patients with immediate reconstruction. The inferiority of hypofractionation would not be ruled out if the upper bound of the one-sided 95% CI for the difference in 24-month complication rate between the two groups was greater than 10%. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02783690, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between June 2, 2016, and Aug 23, 2018, 88 patients were randomly assigned (44 to each group), of whom 82 received protocol treatment (41 in the conventional fractionation group and 41 in the hypofractionation group; median age of 52 years [IQR 44-64], 79 [96%] patients were White, two [2%] were Black or African American, one [1%] was Asian, and 79 [96%] were not of Hispanic ethnicity). As of data cutoff (Jan 30, 2023), the median follow-up was 39·3 months (IQR 37·5-61·2). The median mean heart dose was 0·54 Gy (IQR 0·30-0·72) for the conventional fractionation group and 0·49 Gy (0·25-0·64) for the hypofractionation group. Within 24 months of first radiotherapy, 14 protocol-defined complications occurred in six (15%) patients in the conventional fractionation group and in eight (20%) patients in the hypofractionation group (absolute difference 4·9% [one-sided 95% CI 18·5], p=0·27). The complications in the conventionally fractionated group were contracture (five [12%] of 41 patients]) and fat necrosis (one [2%] patient) requiring surgical intervention. All eight protocol-defined complications in the hypofractionation group were due to infections, three of which were acute infections that required surgical intervention, and five were late infections, four of which required surgical intervention. All 14 complications were in patients with immediate expander or implant-based reconstruction. INTERPRETATION: After a median follow-up of 39·3 months, non-inferiority of the hypofractionation group could not be established. However, given similar tolerability, hypofractionated proton PMRT appears to be worthy of further study in patients with and without immediate reconstruction. FUNDING: The Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, the Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ, USA, and the US National Cancer Institute.

Dose delivery reproducibility for PBS proton treatment of breast cancer patients with and without mask immobilization.

BACKGROUND: Setup reproducibility of the tissue in the proton beam path is critical in maintaining the planned clinical target volume (CTV) dose coverage and sparing the organs at risk (OAR). In this study, we retrospectively evaluated radiation therapy dose reproducibility for proton pencil beam scanning (PBS) treatment of breast cancer patients with and without mask immobilization. METHODS: Ninety-four patients treated between January 2019 and September 2022 with at least one verification CT scan (V-CT) in treatment position were included for this study. All patients were set up with arms up using the Orfit AIO patient positioning system, with (69 patients) or without (25 patients) mask immobilization in chin, neck, shoulder, upper arm, and chest areas. Two to three enface or near enface single field uniform dose PBS beams were optimized using a commercial treatment planning system. Prescription doses were 25 to 60 GyRBE in 5 to 45 fractions. Treatment plan doses re-calculated on V-CTs were compared to the corresponding planned doses. Cumulative doses were also calculated for patients with at least 3 V-CTs by deform and weighted sum doses from V-CTs to corresponding P-CTs. CTV D95%, ipsilateral-lung V40%, esophagus D0.01cc, and heart mean dose were evaluated and reported as percentages of prescription doses. Differences were large dose deteriorations (LDD) if: (1) CTV (V-CT/cumulative D95%) - (Planned D95%) < - 5%; or (2) Ipsilateral-lung (V-CT/cumulative V40%) - (Planned V40%) > 5%; or (3) Esophagus (V-CT/cumulative D0.01cc) - (Planned D0.01cc) > 10%; or (4) Heart (V-CT/cumulative mean) - (Planned mean) > 1.5%. RESULTS: On average, V-CT/cumulative and planned CTV/OAR dose parameter differences were less than 2.2%/1.7% and 3.4%/3.7% for masked and maskless patients, respectively. The percentages of patients with at least one CTV or OAR V-CT/cumulative dose LDD were 20.3%/25.0% and 72.0%/54.0% for masked and maskless patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: On average, masked/maskless setups achieved delivered and planned CTV/OAR dose parameters agreed within 2.2%/3.7% for PBS treatment of breast cancer patients in this study. Maskless patients had higher rate of CTV/OAR LDDs compared to masked patients. Dosimetric differences large enough to raise clinical concerns in either group were able to be addressed with replannings.

A province-by-province cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis of one-time birth cohort screening of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Canada.

Managing chronic hepatitis C is challenging, as the majority of those infected are asymptomatic. Therefore, to ensure treatments are administered before the onset of severe complications, screening is important. In Canada, uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of screening has led to conflicting recommendations. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness and budget-impact of one-time HCV screening. A state-transition model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budget-impact between a risk-based screening strategy (current-practice) and a one-time screening strategy on three different birth-cohorts. Cost and prevalence data were obtained from administrative data. Progression and utility data were based on recent systematic reviews. We used a provincial payer-perspective, life-time time-horizon and a 1.5% discount rate for the cost-effectiveness analysis, and used a 10-year time-horizon and no discounting for the budget-impact analysis. One-time screening strategy would cost more and provide more health benefits than the risk-based screening for all birth cohorts. For those born after 1964, the incremental-cost-effectiveness-ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) of screening versus current-practice varied from $27,422/QALY to $42,191/QALY across different provinces. One-time screening of the cohort would cost an additional $2 million to $236 million across different provinces. For those born 1945-1964, the ICER of screening versus current-practice varied from $35,217/QALY to $48,197/QALY across different provinces. For the cohort born before 1945, the ICER of screening versus current-practice was not cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY across all provinces. Our cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that a one-time HCV screening program for those born after 1945 is cost-effective. Considering the budget impact relative to other funded recommended health services and technologies, HCV screening could be considered affordable.

The impact of expanded access to direct acting antivirals for Hepatitis C virus on patient outcomes in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has high global prevalence and can lead to liver complications and death. Access to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Canada increased following several policy changes, however the real-world impact of expanded DAA access and increased use of these drugs is unknown. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the early change in rates of HCV-related hospitalizations overall and HCV-related hospitalizations with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after expanded DAA access. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis using national administrative health databases in Canada. Rates of HCV-related hospitalizations and HCV-related hospitalizations with HCC were enumerated monthly between April 2006 and March 2020. We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with ramp functions in October 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the impact of policies to expand DAA access on hospitalization outcomes. RESULTS: Rates of HCV-related hospitalizations in Canada increased between 2006 and 2014, and gradually declined thereafter. The decrease after October 2014, or the first policy change, was significant (p = 0.0355), but no further change was found after the second policy change in 2017 (p = 0.2567). HCV-related hospitalizations with HCC increased until end of 2013, followed by a plateau, before declining in 2016. No significant shifts were found after the first policy change in 2014 (p = 0.1291) nor the second policy change in 2017 (p = 0.6324). Subgroup analyses revealed that those aged 50-64 and males had observable declines in rates of HCV-related hospitalizations in the year prior to the first policy change. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding DAA access was associated with a drop in HCV-related hospitalizations in the overall Canadian population coinciding with the 2014 policy change. In light of the time required for HCV-related complications to manifest, continued ongoing research examining the real-world effectiveness of DAAs is required.

Engagement with the HCV care cascade among high-risk groups: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: HCV elimination requires a thorough understanding of the care cascade. A direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-era description of the care cascade has not been undertaken in Ontario, Canada's most populous jurisdiction. Our primary objective was to describe the current population-level care cascade in the general Ontario population and among key risk groups ─ baby boomers, immigrants, and individuals experiencing residential instability. The secondary objective was to identify predictors of engagement. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of Ontario residents undergoing HCV testing between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2018, and mapped the care cascade [antibody-diagnosed, RNA tested, RNA positive, genotyped, treated, achieved sustained virologic response, reinfected/relapsed] as of December 31, 2018. The cascade was stratified by risk groups. Cause-specific hazard modeling was used to identify demographic, and socioeconomic predictors of engagement with key steps of the cascade. RESULTS: Among 108,428 Ontario residents living with an HCV antibody diagnosis, 88% received confirmatory RNA testing; of these, 62% tested positive and 94% of positive tests were genotyped. Of those with confirmed viremia, 53% initiated treatment and 76% of treated individuals achieved sustained virologic response, while ~1% experienced reinfection or relapse. Males, older birth cohorts, long-term residents, those with a history of substance use disorder and social marginalization (eg, material deprivation, residential instability), and those initially diagnosed in the pre-DAA era exhibited lower rates of engagement with almost every step of HCV care. CONCLUSIONS: Despite DAA era improvements, treatment initiation remains a major gap. HCV screening and linkage-to-treatment, particularly for those with a history of substance use disorder and social marginalization, will be needed to equitably close gaps in HCV care in the province.