Variation in loss of immunity shapes influenza epidemics and the impact of vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Protective antibody immunity against the influenza A virus wanes in 2-7 years due to antigenic drift of the virus' surface proteins. The duration of immune protection is highly variable because antigenic evolution of the virus is irregular. Currently, the variable nature of the duration of immunity has had little attention in analyses of the impact of vaccination, including cost-effectiveness studies. METHODS: We developed a range of mathematical transmission models to investigate the effect of variable duration of immunity on the size of seasonal epidemics. The models range from simple conceptual to more realistic, by distinguishing between infection- versus vaccination-induced immunity, by inclusion of primary vaccine failure, by assuming a leaky vaccine, and by the inclusion of age-dependent contact patterns. RESULTS: We show that annual variation in the duration of immunity causes large variation in the size of epidemics, and affects the effectiveness of vaccination. Accumulation of susceptible individuals in one or more mild seasons results in a disproportionately large outbreak in a subsequent season. Importantly, variation in the duration of immunity increases the average infection attack rate when the vaccination coverage is around the outbreak threshold. Specifically, in a tailored age-stratified model with a realistic reproduction number (R 0 = 1.4) and vaccination coverage of 25%, we find that the attack rate in unvaccinated children (<10 years old) is negligible if the duration of immunity is constant, while on average 2.8% (2.5-97.5% percentiles: 1.8-4.1%) of the children are infected if the duration of immunity is variable. These findings stem from the buildup of susceptibility over multiple seasons by waning of immunity, and the nonlinear relation between susceptibility and infection attack rates. CONCLUSIONS: The models illustrate that variation in the duration of immunity impacts the long-term effectiveness of vaccination, and that vaccine effectiveness cannot be judged for each year in isolation. Our findings have implications for vaccination strategies that aim to maximize the vaccination coverage while extending the age range of persons eligible for vaccination.

Long-term adaptation of the influenza A virus by escaping cytotoxic T-cell recognition.

The evolutionary adaptation of the influenza A virus (IAV) to human antibodies is well characterised. Much less is known about the long-term evolution of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes, which are important antigens for clearance of infection. We construct an antigenic map of IAVs of all human subtypes using a compendium of 142 confirmed CTL epitopes, and show that IAV evolved gradually in the period 1932-2015, with infrequent antigenic jumps in the H3N2 subtype. Intriguingly, the number of CTL epitopes per virus decreases with more than one epitope per three years in the H3N2 subtype (from 84 epitopes per virus in 1968 to 64 in 2015), mostly attributed to the loss of HLA-B epitopes. We confirm these observations with epitope predictions. Our findings indicate that selection pressures imposed by CTL immunity shape the long-term evolution of IAV.

The idiosyncrasy of spatial structure in bacterial competition.

BACKGROUND: The spatial structure of a habitat can have a strong impact on community dynamics. Different experimental approaches exist to explore the effect of spatial structure on bacterial communities. To investigate the effect of 'space', a single implementation of spatial structure is often contrasted to bacterial community dynamics in well-mixed cultures. While such comparisons are useful, it is likely that the observed dynamics will be particular to the specific experimental implementation of spatial structure. In order to address this question, we track the community dynamics of a two-strain Escherichia coli community in various spatial habitats and relate the observed dynamics to the structure of a habitat. RESULTS: By tracking the community dynamics of rpoS wild-type and mutant E. coli in radially expanding colonies on solid and semi-solid agar plates, we find that the mutant strain outcompetes the wild-type on semi-solid agar plates, whereas the two strains coexist on solid agar. We compare these results to previous studies in which the same two strains were shown to coexist in habitats spatially structured by microfabrication, while the mutant outcompeted the wild-type in well-mixed batch cultures. Together, these observations show that different implementations of space may result in qualitatively different community dynamics. Furthermore, we argue that the same competitive outcome (e.g. coexistence) may arise from distinct underlying dynamics in different experimental implementations of spatial structure. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations demonstrate that different experimental implementations of spatial structure may not only lead to quantitatively different communities (changes in the relative abundance of types) but can also lead to qualitatively different outcomes of long-term community dynamics (coexistence versus extinction and loss of biodiversity).

Quantitative laser speckle flowmetry of the in vivo microcirculation using sidestream dark field microscopy.

We present integrated Laser Speckle Contrast Imaging (LSCI) and Sidestream Dark Field (SDF) flowmetry to provide real-time, non-invasive and quantitative measurements of speckle decorrelation times related to microcirculatory flow. Using a multi exposure acquisition scheme, precise speckle decorrelation times were obtained. Applying SDF-LSCI in vitro and in vivo allows direct comparison between speckle contrast decorrelation and flow velocities, while imaging the phantom and microcirculation architecture. This resulted in a novel analysis approach that distinguishes decorrelation due to flow from other additive decorrelation sources.

Spatial structure facilitates cooperation in a social dilemma: empirical evidence from a bacterial community.

Cooperative organisms are ubiquitous in nature, despite their vulnerability to exploitation by cheaters. Although numerous theoretical studies suggest that spatial structure is critical for cooperation to persist, the spatial ecology of microbial cooperation remains largely unexplored experimentally. By tracking the community dynamics of cooperating (rpoS wild-type) and cheating (rpoS mutant) Escherichia coli in well-mixed flasks and microfabricated habitats, we demonstrate that spatial structure stabilizes coexistence between wild-type and mutant and thus facilitates cooperator maintenance. We develop a method to interpret our experimental results in the context of game theory, and show that the game wild-type and mutant bacteria play in an unstructured environment changes markedly over time, and eventually obeys a prisoner's dilemma leading to cheater dominance. In contrast, when wild-type and mutant E. coli co-inhabit a spatially-structured habitat, cooperators and cheaters coexist at intermediate frequencies. Our findings show that even in microhabitats lacking patchiness or spatial heterogeneities in resource availability, surface growth allows cells to form multi-cellular aggregates, yielding a self-structured community in which cooperators persist.