Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing. METHODS: Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals-Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per week between April 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022, or symptom-based testing between April 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2023. People included in the Legacy study were either Crick employees or health-care workers at three London hospitals, older than 18 years, and gave written informed consent. Legacy excluded people who were unable or unwilling to give informed consent and those not employed by a qualifying institution. We segmented data to include vaccination events occurring up to 150 days before the emergence of three variants of concern: delta, BA.2, and XBB 1.5. We split the data for each wave into two categories: real-time and retrospective. The real-time dataset contained neutralising-antibody titres collected up to the date of emergence in each wave; the retrospective dataset contained all samples until the next SARS-CoV-2 exposure of each individual, whether vaccination or infection. FINDINGS: We included data from 335 participants in the delta wave analysis, 223 (67%) of whom were female and 112 (33%) of whom were male (median age 40 years, IQR 22-58); data from 385 participants in the BA.2 wave analysis, 271 (70%) of whom were female and 114 (30%) of whom were male (41 years, 22-60); and data from 248 participants in the XBB 1.5 wave analysis, 191 (77%) of whom were female, 56 (23%) of whom were male, and one (<1%) of whom preferred not to say (40 years, 21-59). Overall, we included 968 exposures (vaccinations) across 1895 serum samples in the model. For the delta wave, we estimated peak titre values as 490·0 IC50 (95% credible interval 224·3-1515·9) for people with no previous infection and as 702·4 IC50 (300·8-2322·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron; the delta wave did not include people with a previous omicron infection. For the BA.2 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 858·1 IC50 (689·8-1363·2) for people with no previous infection, 1020·7 IC50 (725·9-1722·6) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1422·0 IC50 (679·2-3027·3) for people with a previous omicron infection. For the XBB 1.5 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 703·2 IC50 (415·0-3197·8) for people with no previous infection, 1215·9 IC50 (511·6-7338·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1556·3 IC50 (757·2-7907·9) for people with a previous omicron infection. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows the feasibility of real-time estimation of antibody kinetics before SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence. This estimation is valuable for understanding how specific combinations of SARS-CoV-2 exposures influence antibody kinetics and for examining how COVID-19 vaccination-campaign timing could affect population-level immunity to emerging variants. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, UK Research and Innovation, UK Medical Research Council, Francis Crick Institute, and Genotype-to-Phenotype National Virology Consortium.

Antibody correlates of protection against Delta infection after vaccination: A nested case-control within the UK-based SIREN study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate serological correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) infection after two vaccinations. METHODS: We performed a case-control study, where cases were Delta infections after the second vaccine dose and controls were vaccinated, never infected participants, matched by age, gender and region. Sera were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike antibody levels (anti-S) and neutralising antibody titres (nAbT), using live virus microneutralisation against Ancestral, Delta and Omicron (BA.1, B.1.1.529). We modelled the decay of anti-S and nAbT for both groups, inferring levels at matched calendar times since the second vaccination. We assessed differences in inferred antibody titres between groups and used conditional logistic regression to explore the relationship between titres and odds of infection. RESULTS: In total, 130 sequence-confirmed Delta cases and 318 controls were included. Anti-S and Ancestral nAbT decayed similarly between groups, but faster in cases for Delta nAbT (p = 0.02) and Omicron nAbT (p = 0.002). At seven days before infection, controls had higher anti-S levels (p < 0.0001) and nAbT (p < 0.0001; all variants) at matched calendar time. A two-fold increase in anti-S levels was associated with a 29% ([95% CI 14-42%]; p = 0.001) reduction in odds of Delta infection. Delta nAbT>40 were associated with reduced odds of Delta infection (89%, [69-96%]; p < 0.0001), with additional benefits for titres >100 (p = 0.009) and >400 (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 Delta, with potential implications for vaccine deployment, development, and public health response.

CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and antibodies are associated with protection against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection: a nested case-control study within the PITCH study.

IMPORTANCE: Defining correlates of protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine breakthrough infection informs vaccine policy for booster doses and future vaccine designs. Existing studies demonstrate humoral correlates of protection, but the role of T cells in protection is still unclear. In this study, we explore antibody and T cell immune responses associated with protection against Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infection in a well-characterized cohort of UK Healthcare Workers (HCWs). We demonstrate evidence to support a role for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells as well as antibodies against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection. In addition, our results suggest a potential role for cross-reactive T cells in vaccine breakthrough.

Commercial Immunoglobulin Products Contain Neutralizing Antibodies Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Spike Protein.

BACKGROUND: Patients with antibody deficiency respond poorly to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and are at risk of severe or prolonged infection. They are given long-term immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) prepared from healthy donor plasma to confer passive immunity against infection. Following widespread COVID-19 vaccination alongside natural exposure, we hypothesized that immunoglobulin preparations will now contain neutralizing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike antibodies, which confer protection against COVID-19 disease and may help to treat chronic infection. METHODS: We evaluated anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody in a cohort of patients before and after immunoglobulin infusion. Neutralizing capacity of patient samples and immunoglobulin products was assessed using in vitro pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays, the latter investigating multiple batches against current circulating Omicron variants. We describe the clinical course of 9 patients started on IRT during treatment of COVID-19. RESULTS: In 35 individuals with antibody deficiency established on IRT, median anti-spike antibody titer increased from 2123 to 10 600 U/mL postinfusion, with corresponding increase in pseudovirus neutralization titers to levels comparable to healthy donors. Testing immunoglobulin products directly in the live-virus assay confirmed neutralization, including of BQ1.1 and XBB variants, but with variation between immunoglobulin products and batches.Initiation of IRT alongside remdesivir in patients with antibody deficiency and prolonged COVID-19 infection (median 189 days, maximum >900 days with an ancestral viral strain) resulted in clearance of SARS-CoV-2 at a median of 20 days. CONCLUSIONS: Immunoglobulin preparations now contain neutralizing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that are transmitted to patients and help to treat COVID-19 in individuals with failure of humoral immunity.

Sotrovimab restores neutralization against current Omicron subvariants in patients with blood cancer.

Wu et al. report that patients with hematologic malignancies have reduced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants and Sotrovimab retains neutralizing capacity against all tested Omicron subvariants.

Strong peak immunogenicity but rapid antibody waning following third vaccine dose in older residents of care homes.

Third-dose coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines are being deployed widely but their efficacy has not been assessed adequately in vulnerable older people who exhibit suboptimal responses after primary vaccination series. This observational study, which was carried out by the VIVALDI study based in England, looked at spike-specific immune responses in 341 staff and residents in long-term care facilities who received an mRNA vaccine following dual primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Third-dose vaccination strongly increased antibody responses with preferential relative enhancement in older people and was required to elicit neutralization of Omicron. Cellular immune responses were also enhanced with strong cross-reactive recognition of Omicron. However, antibody titers fell 21-78% within 100 d after vaccine and 27% of participants developed a breakthrough Omicron infection. These findings reveal strong immunogenicity of a third vaccine in one of the most vulnerable population groups and endorse an approach for widespread delivery across this population. Ongoing assessment will be required to determine the stability of immune protection.

Microbial communities form rich extracellular metabolomes that foster metabolic interactions and promote drug tolerance.

Microbial communities are composed of cells of varying metabolic capacity, and regularly include auxotrophs that lack essential metabolic pathways. Through analysis of auxotrophs for amino acid biosynthesis pathways in microbiome data derived from >12,000 natural microbial communities obtained as part of the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP), and study of auxotrophic-prototrophic interactions in self-establishing metabolically cooperating yeast communities (SeMeCos), we reveal a metabolically imprinted mechanism that links the presence of auxotrophs to an increase in metabolic interactions and gains in antimicrobial drug tolerance. As a consequence of the metabolic adaptations necessary to uptake specific metabolites, auxotrophs obtain altered metabolic flux distributions, export more metabolites and, in this way, enrich community environments in metabolites. Moreover, increased efflux activities reduce intracellular drug concentrations, allowing cells to grow in the presence of drug levels above minimal inhibitory concentrations. For example, we show that the antifungal action of azoles is greatly diminished in yeast cells that uptake metabolites from a metabolically enriched environment. Our results hence provide a mechanism that explains why cells are more robust to drug exposure when they interact metabolically.

Functional profiling of long intergenic non-coding RNAs in fission yeast.

Eukaryotic genomes express numerous long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lincRNAs) that do not overlap any coding genes. Some lincRNAs function in various aspects of gene regulation, but it is not clear in general to what extent lincRNAs contribute to the information flow from genotype to phenotype. To explore this question, we systematically analysed cellular roles of lincRNAs in Schizosaccharomyces pombe. Using seamless CRISPR/Cas9-based genome editing, we deleted 141 lincRNA genes to broadly phenotype these mutants, together with 238 diverse coding-gene mutants for functional context. We applied high-throughput colony-based assays to determine mutant growth and viability in benign conditions and in response to 145 different nutrient, drug, and stress conditions. These analyses uncovered phenotypes for 47.5% of the lincRNAs and 96% of the protein-coding genes. For 110 lincRNA mutants, we also performed high-throughput microscopy and flow cytometry assays, linking 37% of these lincRNAs with cell-size and/or cell-cycle control. With all assays combined, we detected phenotypes for 84 (59.6%) of all lincRNA deletion mutants tested. For complementary functional inference, we analysed colony growth of strains ectopically overexpressing 113 lincRNA genes under 47 different conditions. Of these overexpression strains, 102 (90.3%) showed altered growth under certain conditions. Clustering analyses provided further functional clues and relationships for some of the lincRNAs. These rich phenomics datasets associate lincRNA mutants with hundreds of phenotypes, indicating that most of the lincRNAs analysed exert cellular functions in specific environmental or physiological contexts. This study provides groundwork to further dissect the roles of these lincRNAs in the relevant conditions.

Reduced antibody cross-reactivity following infection with B.1.1.7 than with parental SARS-CoV-2 strains.

Background: The degree of heterotypic immunity induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains is a major determinant of the spread of emerging variants and the success of vaccination campaigns, but remains incompletely understood. Methods: We examined the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) that arose in the United Kingdom and spread globally. We determined titres of spike glycoprotein-binding antibodies and authentic virus neutralising antibodies induced by B.1.1.7 infection to infer homotypic and heterotypic immunity. Results: Antibodies elicited by B.1.1.7 infection exhibited significantly reduced recognition and neutralisation of parental strains or of the South Africa variant B.1.351 (Beta) than of the infecting variant. The drop in cross-reactivity was significantly more pronounced following B.1.1.7 than parental strain infection. Conclusions: The results indicate that heterotypic immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 variants is asymmetric. Funding: This work was supported by the Francis Crick Institute and the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics of Complex Technical Systems, Magdeburg.

Induction of APOBEC3 Exacerbates DNA Replication Stress and Chromosomal Instability in Early Breast and Lung Cancer Evolution.

APOBEC3 enzymes are cytosine deaminases implicated in cancer. Precisely when APOBEC3 expression is induced during cancer development remains to be defined. Here we show that specific APOBEC3 genes are upregulated in breast ductal carcinoma in situ, and in preinvasive lung cancer lesions coincident with cellular proliferation. We observe evidence of APOBEC3-mediated subclonal mutagenesis propagated from TRACERx preinvasive to invasive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) lesions. We find that APOBEC3B exacerbates DNA replication stress and chromosomal instability through incomplete replication of genomic DNA, manifested by accumulation of mitotic ultrafine bridges and 53BP1 nuclear bodies in the G1 phase of the cell cycle. Analysis of TRACERx NSCLC clinical samples and mouse lung cancer models revealed APOBEC3B expression driving replication stress and chromosome missegregation. We propose that APOBEC3 is functionally implicated in the onset of chromosomal instability and somatic mutational heterogeneity in preinvasive disease, providing fuel for selection early in cancer evolution. SIGNIFICANCE: This study reveals the dynamics and drivers of APOBEC3 gene expression in preinvasive disease and the exacerbation of cellular diversity by APOBEC3B through DNA replication stress to promote chromosomal instability early in cancer evolution.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 2355.

Selective inhibition of cancer cell self-renewal through a Quisinostat-histone H1.0 axis.

Continuous cancer growth is driven by subsets of self-renewing malignant cells. Targeting of uncontrolled self-renewal through inhibition of stem cell-related signaling pathways has proven challenging. Here, we show that cancer cells can be selectively deprived of self-renewal ability by interfering with their epigenetic state. Re-expression of histone H1.0, a tumor-suppressive factor that inhibits cancer cell self-renewal in many cancer types, can be broadly induced by the clinically well-tolerated compound Quisinostat. Through H1.0, Quisinostat inhibits cancer cell self-renewal and halts tumor maintenance without affecting normal stem cell function. Quisinostat also hinders expansion of cells surviving targeted therapy, independently of the cancer types and the resistance mechanism, and inhibits disease relapse in mouse models of lung cancer. Our results identify H1.0 as a major mediator of Quisinostat's antitumor effect and suggest that sequential administration of targeted therapy and Quisinostat may be a broadly applicable strategy to induce a prolonged response in patients.

SNW1 is a critical regulator of spatial BMP activity, neural plate border formation, and neural crest specification in vertebrate embryos.

Bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) gradients provide positional information to direct cell fate specification, such as patterning of the vertebrate ectoderm into neural, neural crest, and epidermal tissues, with precise borders segregating these domains. However, little is known about how BMP activity is regulated spatially and temporally during vertebrate development to contribute to embryonic patterning, and more specifically to neural crest formation. Through a large-scale in vivo functional screen in Xenopus for neural crest fate, we identified an essential regulator of BMP activity, SNW1. SNW1 is a nuclear protein known to regulate gene expression. Using antisense morpholinos to deplete SNW1 protein in both Xenopus and zebrafish embryos, we demonstrate that dorsally expressed SNW1 is required for neural crest specification, and this is independent of mesoderm formation and gastrulation morphogenetic movements. By exploiting a combination of immunostaining for phosphorylated Smad1 in Xenopus embryos and a BMP-dependent reporter transgenic zebrafish line, we show that SNW1 regulates a specific domain of BMP activity in the dorsal ectoderm at the neural plate border at post-gastrula stages. We use double in situ hybridizations and immunofluorescence to show how this domain of BMP activity is spatially positioned relative to the neural crest domain and that of SNW1 expression. Further in vivo and in vitro assays using cell culture and tissue explants allow us to conclude that SNW1 acts upstream of the BMP receptors. Finally, we show that the requirement of SNW1 for neural crest specification is through its ability to regulate BMP activity, as we demonstrate that targeted overexpression of BMP to the neural plate border is sufficient to restore neural crest formation in Xenopus SNW1 morphants. We conclude that through its ability to regulate a specific domain of BMP activity in the vertebrate embryo, SNW1 is a critical regulator of neural plate border formation and thus neural crest specification.

Tgf-beta superfamily signaling in embryonic development and homeostasis.

TGF-beta superfamily signaling pathways emerged with the evolution of multicellular animals, suggesting that these pathways contribute to the increased diversity and complexity required for the development and homeostasis of these organisms. In this review we begin by exploring some key developmental and disease processes requiring TGF-beta ligands to underscore the fundamental importance of these pathways before delving into the molecular mechanism of signal transduction, focusing on recent findings. Finally, we discuss how these ligands act as morphogens, how their activity and signaling range is regulated, and how they interact with other signaling pathways to achieve their specific and varied functional roles.

Insulin delays the progression of Drosophila cells through G2/M by activating the dTOR/dRaptor complex.

In Drosophila and mammals, insulin signalling can increase growth, progression through G1/S, cell size and tissue size. Here, we analyse the way insulin affects cell size and cell-cycle progression in two haemocyte-derived Drosophila cell lines. Surprisingly, we find that although insulin increases cell size, it slows the rate at which these cells increase in number. By using BrdU pulse-chase to label S-phase cells and follow their progression through the cell cycle, we show that insulin delays progression through G2/M, thereby slowing cell division. The ability of insulin to slow progression through G2/M is independent of its ability to stimulate progression through G1/S, so is not a consequence of feedback by the cell-cycle machinery to maintain cell-cycle length. Insulin's effects on progression through G2/M are mediated by dTOR/dRaptor signalling. Partially inhibiting dTOR/dRaptor signalling by dsRNAi or mild rapamycin treatment can increase cell number in cultured haemocytes and the Drosophila wing, respectively. Thus, insulin signalling can influence cell number depending on a balance between its ability to accelerate progression through G1/S and delay progression through G2/M.