Trends in mortality of liver cancer in Wenzhou City from 2014 to 2022 / 预防医学

Objective@#To analyze the trends in mortality of liver cancer in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2022, so as to provide the evidence for improving liver cancer control measures.@*Methods@#Data of liver cancer mortality in Wenzhou City from 2014 to 2022 were collected from Wenzhou Chronic Disease Monitoring Information System. The crude mortality were estimated and standardized by the national population census data in China in 2010, and the trends in mortality of liver cancer were analyzed with average annual percent change (AAPC).@*Results@#There were 22 033 liver cancer deaths from 2014 to 2022, accounting for 18.08% of malignant tumor deaths and ranking the second in malignant tumor deaths. The crude mortality of liver cancer was 30.00/105 and the standardized mortality was 24.32/105, both showing decreasing trends (AAPC=-2.812% and -5.742%, both P<0.05). The standardized mortality of liver cancer were higher in men than in women (36.66/105 vs. 11.21/105, P<0.05), both showing decreasing trends (AAPC=-5.702% and -5.521%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality of liver cancer appeared a tendency towards a rise with age (P<0.05), with the highest crude mortality in the group aged 80 to 84 years, reaching 145.12/105. The crude mortality of liver cancer showed a tendency towards a decline among residents aged under 15 years, 15 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years and 65 years and above (AAPC=-20.311%, -6.569%, -7.408% and -3.177%, all P<0.05).@*Conclusions@#The mortality of liver cancer showed a tendency towards a decline in Wenzhou City from 2014 to 2022. Men and the elderly were high-risk groups for liver cancer deaths, and prevention should be strengthened based on risk factors.

Plasma hemoglobin and the risk of death in HIV/AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies concerning the effect of plasma hemoglobin (HB) and other factors that may modify the risk of death in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited. RESULTS: Higher HB was independently linked to a lower death risk in PLHIV, with a decrease of 29% (13%, 43%) per standard deviation (SD) increment after adjusting for CD4, VL and other potential factors [hazard ratio (HR): 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57-0.87, P<0.001]. In addition, the addition of HB to the predictive model containing VL and CD4 significantly improved the C-index, by 0.69% (95% CI: 0.68%-0.71%), and net discrimination, by 0.5% (95% CI: 0.0%-1.6%, P=0.040), when predicting the death risk of PLHIV. CONCLUSIONS: A lower level of HB was an independent risk factor for HIV/AIDS-associated death in PLHIV. HB combined with VL and CD4 may be an appropriate predictive model of the death risk of PLHIV. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A propensity-score matching (PSM) approach was applied to select a total of 750 PLHIV (150 deceased and 600 living) from the AIDS prevention and control information system in the Wenzhou area from 2006 to 2018. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were formulated to estimate the effect of HB. The predictive performance improvement contributed by HB was evaluated using the C-index and net reclassification improvement.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for HIV/AIDS patients who underwent antiretroviral therapy: Data from a China population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Accurate forecast of the death risk is crucial to the administration of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). We aimed to establish and validate an effective prognosis nomogram in PLHIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: All the data were obtained from 2006 to 2018 in the Wenzhou area from China AIDS prevention and control information system. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis based on the training set. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Its clinical utility was also evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA), X-tile analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve, respectively in an independent validation set. FINDINGS: Independent prognostic factors including haemoglobin, viral load and CD4+ T-cell count were determined and contained in the nomogram. Good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation could be detected in the calibration curve for mortality, especially in the first year. In the training cohort, AUC (95% CI) and C-index (95% CI) were 0.93 (0.90, 0.96) and 0.90 (0.85, 0.96), respectively. In the validation set, the nomogram still revealed excellent discriminations [AUC (95% CI): 0.95 (0.91, 1.00)] and good calibration [C-index (95% CI): 0.92 (0.82-1.00)]. Moreover, DCA also demonstrated that the nomogram was clinical beneficial. Additionally, participants could be classified into three distinct (low, middle and high) risk groups by the nomogram. INTERPRETATION: The nomogram presents accurate and favourable prognostic prediction for PLHIV who underwent ART. FUNDING: This work was supported by Zhejiang Basic Public Welfare Research Project (LGF19H260011), Wenzhou Basic Public Welfare Research Project (Y20180201), the Initial Scientific Research Fund (KYQD170301), the Major Project of the Eye Hospital Wenzhou the Major Project of the Eye Hospital Wenzhou Medical University (YNZD201602). Part of this work was also funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (81670777) and Science and Technology Innovation Activity Plan and New Talents Plan for College Students in Zhejiang Province (2019R413073). The funders had no roles in study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation and writing of the report.