Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and prediction analysis of urban air quality in China.

To describe the spatiotemporal variations characteristics and future trends of urban air quality in China, this study evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution features and linkages between the air quality index (AQI) and six primary pollution indicators, using air quality monitoring data from 2014 to 2022. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and random forest (RF) models are created to forecast air quality. (1) The study's findings indicate that pollution levels and air quality index values in Chinese cities decline annually, following a "U"-shaped pattern with a monthly variation. The pollutant levels are high in winter and low in spring, and low in summer and rising in the fall (O3 shows the opposite). (2) The spatial distribution of air quality in Chinese cities is low in the southeast and high in the northwest, and low in the coastal areas and higher in the inland areas. The correlation coefficients between AQI and the pollutant concentrations are as follows: fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) values are correlated at 0.89, 0.84, 0.54, 0.54, 0.32, and 0.056, respectively. (3) In terms of short-term AQI predictions, the RF model performs better than the SARIMA model. The long-term forecast indicates that the average AQI value in Chinese cities is expected to decrease by 0.32 points in 2032 compared to the 2022 level of 52.95. This study has some guiding significance for the analysis and prediction of urban air quality.

Analysis of the Impact of Environmental Perception on the Health Status of Middle-Aged and Older Adults: A Study Based on CFPS 2020 Data.

Health risks and hazards caused by the environment have long been one of the most important public issues of concern to the state, society, and the public. At the same time, population aging is becoming a global issue, and residents' health is the most important component of people's livelihood, and residents can only pursue other rights and interests if they can protect their own health. Therefore, based on the micro data from the fifth round of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper uses binary logistic regression with propensity score matching (PSM) to analyze the effect of environmental perception on the health status (including mental health and physical health) of middle-aged and older adults. It was found that environmental perceptions significantly affect the depressive state and sickness status of middle-aged and older adults. Among them, middle-aged and older adults who were female, of rural households, with low education and relatively low income were more affected by environmental shocks on their health. Therefore, we should pay attention to the mental and physical health of middle-aged and older adults and change the existing design concept of aging policy: the government should formulate effective policies and increase corresponding social support; and society and families should also give corresponding care and encourage middle-aged and older adults to exercise more and provide reasonable psychological guidance.

A Sustainable Road Transport Decarbonisation: The Scenario Analysis of New Energy Vehicle in China.

Due to the prosperous development of the economy, the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) have intensified and attracted attention worldwide. China has set the "dual-carbon" aim to pursue sustainable development in the transport sector. Thus, this study created a generalised Bass model to forecast new energy vehicle (NEV) ownership by introducing a new factor, charging piles, to reflect the infrastructure effects. Using the improved model with the hypothesis of annual mileage, an empirical analysis was conducted with the subject of NEVs in China by using the NEV-related panel data from 2010 to 2020, and the forecast result is outstanding with a goodness-of-fit of 99.7%. With the forecasts, carbon emission reduction was calculated with a bottom-up method. To further discuss the pathway to achieve carbon neutrality in the transport sector of China, a scenario analysis was conducted with ideal, enhanced, and radical constraints. The results show that if all factors remain "as is" until 2050, China will be far from carbon neutrality. Thus, this paper proposes relevant policy implications to assist the government to obtain effective methods to assess carbon reduction benefits and find viable pathways to a sustainable road transport system.

Collectivist culture, environmental regulation and pollution emissions: evidence from China.

Collectivist culture serves as a significant cultural foundation in China. It could, to some extent, shape public attitudes toward the environment and thus influence the implementation of related policies. To examine this hypothesis, this study constructs the collectivist culture intensity index for 25 Chinese provinces spanning from 2010 to 2020. Through a fixed-effect model, we explore how the collectivist culture intensity affects pollution emissions in China. The empirical results indicate the significance of collectivism in enhancing emission reduction through environmental regulations. This conclusion remains robust even when excluding the impact of endogeneity concerns by adopting the instrumental variable approach. Heterogeneity analysis shows that collectivism is more effective in enhancing market-based environmental regulations rather than those driven by policies. Further mechanism analysis confirms that green innovation is a crucial pathway through which collectivism influences pollution emissions. These findings here will offer guidance to policymakers when formulating environmental policies for contexts with different regional cultures.

Empirical Study of Monthly Economic Losses Assessments for "Standard Unit Lockdown" Due to COVID-19.

Background: The pandemic of COVID-19 has been shaping economic developments of the world. From the standpoint of government measures to prevent and control the epidemic, the lockdown was widely used. It is essential to access the economic losses in a lockdown environment which will provide government administration with a necessary reference for decision making in controlling the epidemic. Methods: We introduce the concept of "standard unit incident" and an economic losses assessment methodology for both the standard and the assessed area. We build a "standard unit lockdown" economic losses assessment system and indicators to estimate the economic losses for the monthly lockdown. Using the comprehensive assessment system, the loss infected coefficient of monthly economic losses during lockdown in the 40 countries has been calculated to assess the economic losses by the entropy weighting method (EWM) with data from the CSMAR database and CDC website. Results: We observe that countries in North America suffered the most significant economic losses due to the epidemic, followed by South America and Europe, Asia and Africa, and Oceania and Antarctica suffered relatively minor economic losses. The top 10 countries for monthly economic losses during lockdown were the United States, India, Brazil, France, Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Germany. The United States suffered the greatest monthly economic losses under lockdown ($65.3 billion), roughly 1.5 times that of China, while Germany suffered the least ($56.4 billion), roughly 1.3 times that of China. Conclusion: Lockdown as a control and mitigation strategy has great impact on the economic development and causes huge economic losses. The economic impact due to the pandemic has varied widely among the 40 countries. It will be important to conduct further studies to compare and understand the differences and the reasons behind.

African swine fever outbreaks in China led to gross domestic product and economic losses.

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China-the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. Here we use an input-output model, partial equilibrium theory and a substitution indicator approach for handling missing data to develop a systematic valuation framework for assessing economic losses caused by ASF outbreaks in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We show that the total economic loss accounts for 0.78% of China's gross domestic product in 2019, with impacts experienced in almost all economic sectors through links to the pork industry and a substantial decrease in consumer surplus. Scenario analyses demonstrate that the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in gross domestic product, respectively. These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.

Status and influencing factors of farmers' private investment in the prevention and control of sheep brucellosis in China: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is one of the most common zoonoses worldwide, causing direct losses to the livestock industry and threatening human health. Little is known about the status and factors affecting farmers' private investment in the prevention and control of sheep brucellosis in China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From April to October 2017, a cross-sectional, house-based study was conducted in 7 Chinese provinces. A total of 1037 households included in the study were analyzed. The average amount of private investment in the prevention and control of brucellosis was $0.73±0.54 per sheep. Multivariable analysis showed that factors facilitating private investment included older age of householder (OR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.03-1.11), herd size >100 (OR = 2.49, 95%CI: 1.38-4.51), a higher percentage of income from sheep farming comparing to the total household income (OR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.11-1.16), higher score of brucellosis knowledge (OR = 3.85, 95%CI: 1.40-10.51), actively learning related knowledge (OR = 2.98, 95%CI: 1.55-5.74), actively participating in related training courses (OR = 3.07, 95%CI: 1.52-6.18), care about other people's attitudes (OR = 1.75, 95%CI: 1.35-2.28), concern about the health of neighbors' livestock (OR = 1.75, 95%CI: 1.23-2.51). The analysis found a discouraging factor for private investment, supporting culling policy (OR = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.49-0.91). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to providing interventions related to farmers' knowledge, attitudes and practices, guidance must be offered to help farmers understanding the importance of private investment in the prevention and control of brucellosis.