Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future.

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time. Despite the advances, gaps in the understanding of contemporary sea-level change remain and inhibit the ability to predict how the relevant processes may lead to future change. These gaps arise in part due to the complexity of the linkages between the drivers of sea-level change. Here we review the individual processes which lead to sea-level change and then describe how they combine and vary regionally. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea-level change and to identify and discuss limitations and uncertainty in our understanding of these processes. Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inhibit the ability to provide the needed information for comprehensive planning efforts are of particular focus. Finally, a goal of this paper is to highlight the role of the expanded sea-level observation network-particularly as related to satellite observations-in the improved scientific understanding of the contributors to regional sea-level change.

Aliased Tidal Variability in Mesoscale Sea Level Anomaly Maps.

Sea level anomaly (SLA) maps are routinely produced by objective analysis of data from the constellation of satellite altimeter missions in operation since 1992. Beginning in 2014, changes in the Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System (DUACS) used to create the SLA maps resulted in improved spatial resolution of mesoscale variability, but it also increased the levels of aliased tidal variability compared to the methodology employed prior to 2014. The present work investigates the magnitude and spatial distribution of these tidal signals, which are typically smaller than 1 cm in the open ocean but can reach tens of centimeters in the coastal ocean. In the open ocean, the signals are caused by a combination of phase-locked and phase-variable baroclinic tides. In the coastal ocean, the signals are a combination of aliased high-frequency nontidal variability and aliased variability caused by erroneous tidal corrections applied to the along-track altimetry prior to objective analysis. Several low-pass and bandpass filters are implemented to reduce the tidal signals in the mapped SLA, and independent tide gauge data are used to provide an objective assessment of the performance of the filters. The filter that attenuates both the small-scale (less than 200 km) and the high-frequency (period shorter than 108 days) components of SLA removes aliased baroclinic tidal variability and improves the accuracy of tidal analysis in the open ocean while also performing acceptably in the coastal ocean.

Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.