The synergistic impact of type 2 diabetes and MASLD on cardiovascular, liver, diabetes-related and cancer outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We examined the impact of a co-diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) on patient outcomes. METHODS: Using TriNetX, a global federated research network (n = 114 million), we undertook two retrospective cohort studies, using time-to-event analysis. Analysis 1 compared MASLD with T2D to MASLD alone; analysis 2 compared T2D with MASLD to T2D alone. Propensity score matching using greedy nearest neighbour (calliper .1) balanced the cohorts (1:1) for significant covariates. Primary outcomes were cardiovascular, liver, diabetes-related, and cancer events over 5 years. RESULTS: Analysis 1 (n = 95 275): a co-diagnosis of T2D significantly increased the risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (HR 1.39; CI: 1.34, 1.44), ischaemic stroke (HR 1.45; CI: 1.35, 1.56), heart failure (HR 1.42; CI: 1.36, 1.49), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.09; CI: 1.03, 1.16), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 1.96; CI: 1.69, 2.27), pancreatic cancer (HR 1.25; CI: 1.06, 1.48) and liver-related complications over 5 years from MASLD diagnosis. Analysis 2 (n = 15 208): a co-diagnosis of MASLD significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.11; CI: 1.02, 1.22), IHD (HR 1.181; CI: 1.08, 1.29), hepatocellular (HR 50.31; CI: 6.94, 364.72), pancreatic (HR 1.78; CI: 1.12, 2.84), breast (HR 1.43; CI: 1.09, 1.88) and renal cancer (HR 2.01; CI: 1.24, 3.26), and diabetic neuropathy (HR 1.17; CI: 1.09, 1.27) over 5 years from metformin initiation. CONCLUSIONS: T2D significantly potentiates the risk of cardiovascular, malignancy and liver-related outcomes in people with MASLD. The effect of MASLD on people with T2D, although less dramatic, still potentiated risk of death, IHD, malignancy and peripheral neuropathy.

Genetically proxied IL-13 inhibition is associated with risk of psoriatic disease: Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: Inhibitors of the IL-13 pathway, such as dupilumab, are licensed for atopic dermatitis and asthma. Adverse events resembling psoriatic disease after dupilumab initiation have been reported, but evidence is limited to case reports with uncertain causality. We aimed to investigate whether genetically mimicked IL-13 inhibition (IL-13i) is associated with risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and psoriasis. METHODS: We instrumented IL-13i using a protein-coding variant in the IL13 gene, rs20541, that is associated with circulating eosinophil count (biomarker of IL-13i) at genome-wide significance in a study of 563,946 individuals. Outcome genetic data were taken from studies of PsA, psoriasis, and related spondyloarthritis traits in up to 10,588 cases and 209,287 controls. Colocalization analysis was performed to examine genetic confounding. We additionally used circulating immunoglobulin E (IgE) as a biomarker to test whether associations were replicated, both in the test and in an independent genetic dataset. We also replicated analyses using individual-level data from the UK Biobank. RESULTS: Genetically proxied IL-13i was associated with increased risk of PsA (OR 37.39; 95%CI 11.52, 121.34; p=1.64x10-9) and psoriasis (OR 20.08; 4.38, 92.01; p=1.12x10-4). No consistent associations were found for Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, ankylosing spondylitis or iritis. Colocalization showed no strong evidence of genetic confounding for psoriatic disease. Results were replicated using circulating IgE for the exposure, using independent outcome data and using individual-level data. CONCLUSION: We provide supportive genetic evidence that IL-13i is linked to increased risk of PsA and psoriasis. Physicians prescribing IL-13 inhibitors should be vigilant for these adverse events.

Use of Mendelian randomization to assess the causal status of modifiable exposures for rheumatic diseases.

The explosion in Mendelian randomization (MR) publications is hard to ignore and shows no signs of slowing. Clinician readers, who may not be familiar with jargon-ridden methods, are expected to discern the good from the many low-quality studies that make overconfident claims of causality or stretch the plausibility of what MR can investigate. We aim to equip readers with foundational concepts, contextualized using examples in rheumatology, to appraise the many MR papers that are or will appear in their journals. We highlight the importance of assessing whether exposures are under plausibly specific genetic influence, whether the hypothesized causal pathways make biological sense, and whether results stand up to replication and use of control outcomes. Quality of research can vary substantially using MR as with any design, and all methods have inherent limitations. MR studies have provided and can still contribute valuable insights in the context of evidence triangulation.

Vitamin D, chronic pain, and depression: linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses.

Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to various chronic pain conditions. However, randomized trials of vitamin D supplementation have had mixed results. In contrast, systematic reviews of randomized trials indicate a protective effect of vitamin D supplementation on depression. We undertake a Mendelian randomization investigation in UK Biobank, a study of UK residents aged 40-65 at recruitment. We perform linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses for four outcomes: fibromyalgia, clinical fatigue, chronic widespread pain, and probable lifetime major depression. We use genetic variants from four gene regions with known links to vitamin D biology as instruments. In linear analyses, genetically-predicted levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], a clinical marker of vitamin D status, were not associated with fibromyalgia (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L higher 25(OH)D 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93, 1.12), clinical fatigue (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.94, 1.05), chronic widespread pain (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89, 1.02), or probable lifetime major depression (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.93, 1.01). In non-linear analyses, an association was observed between genetically-predicted 25(OH)D levels and depression in the quintile of the population with the lowest 25(OH)D levels (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59, 0.94); associations were null in other strata. Our findings suggest that population-wide vitamin D supplementation will not substantially reduce pain or depression; however, targeted supplementation of deficient individuals may reduce risk of depression.

Treating Type 2 Diabetes With Early, Intensive, Multimodal Pharmacotherapy: Real-World Evidence From an International Collaborative Database.

Aims: We compared the glycaemic and cardiorenal effects of combination therapy involving metformin, pioglitazone, sodium-glucose-linked-cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i), and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) versus a more conventional glucocentric treatment approach combining sulphonylureas (SU) and insulin from the point of type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the Global Collaborative Network in TriNetX. We included individuals prescribed metformin, pioglitazone, an SGLT2i, and a GLP-1 RA for at least 1-year duration, within 3 years of a T2D diagnosis, and compared with individuals prescribed insulin and a SU within the same temporal pattern. Individuals were followed up for 3 years. Results: We propensity score-matched (PSM) for 26 variables. A total of 1762 individuals were included in the final analysis (n = 881 per cohort). At 3-years, compared to the insulin/SU group, the metformin/pioglitazone/SGLT2i/GLP-1 RA group had a lower risk of heart failure (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13-0.87, p = 0.018), acute coronary syndrome (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.12-0.67, p = 0.002), stroke (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.49, p < 0.001), chronic kidney disease (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.25-0.99, p = 0.042), and hospitalisation (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46-0.77, p < 0.001). Conclusions: In this real-world study, early, intensive polytherapy, targeting the distinct pathophysiological defects in T2D, is associated with significantly more favourable cardiorenal outcomes, compared to insulin and SU therapy.

Role of Anti-Inflammatory Diet and Fecal Microbiota Transplant in Psoriatic Arthritis.

PURPOSE: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a chronic inflammatory condition with complex and heterogenous manifestations. Although a myriad of treatment options including biologic medications are available to alleviate symptoms and slow disease progression, there is currently no cure for this condition. There has been a recent emergence of understanding about the relationship between the gut microbiome and immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. This has generated interest in the potential role of dietary interventions, particularly anti-inflammatory diets, and fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) as novel therapeutic approaches. The purpose of this narrative review is to examine the role of an anti-inflammatory diet and FMT in turn and whether their combination may offer alternate approaches for the management of PsA. METHODS: Our non-systematic narrative review was informed by a literature search using PubMed and Google Scholar using the terms anti-inflammatory diet, FMT, nutrition supplements, and PsA. Preclinical studies and non-English language articles were excluded when synthesizing the narrative review. FINDINGS: Current randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational evidence suggest that a hypocaloric diet or Mediterranean diet can help achieve weight loss among PsA patients who are overweight or obese, which in turn reduces inflammation and improves disease activity. However, there is no strong data to support the beneficial effects of intermittent fasting, vitamin supplements, turmeric supplements, probiotics, or omega-3 fatty acid supplements in PsA. Current evidence on the use of FMT in PsA is limited as only one small RCT has been conducted which did not demonstrate efficacy for improving clinical symptoms. IMPLICATIONS: Clinicians can consider recommending hypocaloric or Mediterranean diets as an adjunct to standard management of PsA, possibly under the guidance of a dietician. Further research is needed to explore the beneficial effects of the synergistic role of combining an anti-inflammatory diet with FMT in PsA.

Insomnia and short sleep duration, but not chronotype, is associated with chronic widespread pain: Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVES: Sleep disturbance has been associated with chronic widespread pain (CWP), but their causal relationship remains unclear. We aimed to examine the causal relationship and direction between CWP and sleep traits, namely insomnia, sleep duration and chronotype, using Mendelian Randomization. METHOD: We used genetic association data from ~0.5 million individuals and up to 1.8 million controls from the UK Biobank (UKB). All traits were defined predominantly by self-report. Short sleep duration was defined as average ≤6 hours per 24 hours. Chronotype refers to the inclination to sleep at certain times where some wake and go to bed early ('morning' person), and others wake and go to sleep later ('evening' person). To permit use of the largest available genetic association data, we used the Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE) method, which allows for sample overlap. RESULTS: Insomnia (OR 1.009, 95% credible interval 1.005, 1.014; p = 0.018 that the causal model is a better fit than non-causal model) and short sleep duration (OR 1.060, 95%CrI 1.038, 1.083; p = 0.040) were causally associated with increased risk of CWP, with limited evidence for reverse causation. There was no evidence in support of long sleep duration or chronotype being associated with CWP. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggest that insomnia and short sleep duration (≤6 hours) are associated with an increased risk of CWP. Improving short sleep duration and insomnia, rather than chronotype, may be effective in reducing the risk of CWP, although these results should be replicated in epidemiological and interventional studies.

Denosumab, for osteoporosis, reduces the incidence of type 2 diabetes, risk of foot ulceration and all-cause mortality in adults, compared with bisphosphonates: An analysis of real-world, cohort data, with a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To evaluate the impact of denosumab on (i) the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), and (ii) long-term health outcomes (microvascular [neuropathy, retinopathy, nephropathy] and macrovascular [cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular accident] complications, and all-cause mortality) in patients with T2D, before (iii) combining results with prior studies using meta-analysis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data in a large global federated database (TriNetX; Cambridge, MA) was conducted from 331 375 patients, without baseline T2D or cancer, prescribed either denosumab (treatment, n = 45 854) or bisphosphonates (control, n = 285 521), across 83 healthcare organizations. Propensity score matching (1:1) of confounders was undertaken that resulted in 45 851 in each cohort. Secondary analysis further evaluated the impact of denosumab on long-term health outcomes in patients with T2D. Additionally, we systematically searched prior literature that assessed the association between denosumab and T2D. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias and evidence quality were assessed using Cochrane-endorsed tools. RESULTS: Denosumab (vs. bisphosphonates) was associated with a lower risk of incident T2D over 5 years (hazard ratio 0.83 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.78-0.88]). Secondary analysis showed significant risk reduction in all-cause mortality (0.79 [0.72-0.87]) and foot ulceration (0.67 [0.53-0.86]). Also, pooled results from four studies (three observational, one randomized controlled trial) following meta-analysis showed a reduced relative risk (RR [95% CI]) for incident T2D in patients prescribed denosumab (0.83 [0.79-0.87]) (I2 = 10.76%). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest cohort study to show that denosumab treatment is associated with a reduced RR of incident T2D, as well as an associated reduced RR of all-cause mortality and microvascular complications, findings that may influence guideline development in the treatment of osteoporosis, particularly in patients who are at a high risk of T2D.

Genetically proxied IL-6 receptor inhibition is associated with increased risk of atopic dermatitis.

BACKGROUND: Dermatitis has been reported after initiation of IL-6 receptor (IL-6R) inhibitors (IL-6Ri), while genetic association studies of atopic dermatitis (AD) have implicated IL-6R pathway signaling. However, causality remains unclear. As the indications for IL-6Ri expand, so do the clinical importance of determining whether there is mechanistic evidence linking it to AD. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to examine the association between IL-6Ri and risk of AD. METHODS: To genetically mimic IL-6Ri, we selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms within or near the IL6R gene associated with C-reactive protein at genome-wide significance among 343,524 individuals. Genetic data were obtained from 10,788 individuals with AD and 30,047 controls of European ancestry. We used inverse variance-weighted and pleiotropy-robust methods and examined genetic confounding using colocalization. Analyses were replicated by using 13,473 Finnish and 2,385 East Asian individuals with AD. The results from 3 independent analyses were pooled by meta-analysis. RESULTS: Genetically proxied IL-6Ri was associated with increased risk of AD (odds ratio [OR] = 1.78 per 4.4-mg/L reduction in C-reactive protein level [95% CI = 1.28-2.48] [P = 6.5 × 10-4]). The results were replicated using Finnish outcome data (OR = 2.07 [95% CI = 1.58-2.72] [P = 1.57 × 10-7]) and Eastern Asian data (OR = 1.68 [95% CI = 1.12-2.54] [P = .013]). Meta-analysis of 3 independent populations (OR = 1.89 [95% CI = 1.57-2.28] [P = 2.68 × 10-11]) showed no evidence of heterogeneity (P = .65). We found no statistical evidence for pleiotropy or genetic confounding. CONCLUSION: This genetic investigation provides consistent evidence (across independent multiancestry populations) that IL-6R signaling is causally implicated in AD susceptibility. Clinicians should remain vigilant for adverse effects resembling AD when using IL-6R inhibitors for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases.

Modifiable risk factors and inflammation-related proteins in polymyalgia rheumatica: genome-wide meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation.

OBJECTIVE: Polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) is an age-related inflammatory disease of unknown cause. We aimed to identify potentially modifiable risk factors and therapeutic targets for preventing or treating PMR. METHODS: We meta-analysed genetic association data from 8,156 cases of PMR (defined using diagnostic codes and self-report) and 416,495 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and FinnGen. We then performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association between eight modifiable risk factors (using data from up to 1.2 million individuals) and 65 inflammation-related circulating proteins (up to 55,792 individuals), using the inverse variance weighted and pleiotropy robust methods. RESULTS: We identified three novel genome-wide significant loci in the IL1R1, NEK6 and CCDC88B genes and confirmation of previously described associations with HLA-DRB1 and ANKRD55. Genetically predicted smoking intensity (OR 1.32; 95%CI 1.08-1.60; p = 0.006) and visceral adiposity (OR 1.22; 95%CI 1.10-1.37; p = 3.10x10-4) were associated with PMR susceptibility. Multiple circulating proteins related to IL-1 family signaling were associated with PMR. IL-1 receptor-like 2, also known as IL-36 receptor (OR 1.25; p = 1.89x10-32), serum amyloid A2 (OR 1.06, 9.91x10-10) and CXCL6 (OR 1.09, p = 4.85x10-7) retained significance after correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSION: Reducing smoking and visceral adiposity at a population level might reduce incidence of PMR. We identified proteins that may play causal roles in PMR, potentially suggesting new therapeutic opportunities. Further research is needed before these findings are applied to clinical practice.

Risk of diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes: a real-world data study from a global federated database.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: A protective role of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1-ra) in the development of diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema has been described in some recent studies, which may extend beyond glycaemic control. We aimed to review the clinical impact of SGLT2i and GLP1-ra therapy on the risk of diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular oedema in individuals with type 2 diabetes taking insulin. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort analysis of approximately two million people with type 2 diabetes receiving insulin across 97 healthcare organisations using a global federated health research network (TriNetX, Cambridge, USA). Two intervention cohorts (SGLT2i + insulin, n=176,409; GLP1-ra + insulin, n=207,034) were compared against a control cohort (insulin with no SGLT2i/GLP1-ra, n=1,922,312). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed and estimated HRs were reported for each outcome. Propensity score was used to 1:1 match for age, sex, ischaemic heart disease, hypertension, microvascular complications, chronic kidney disease, HbA1c, BMI and use of pioglitazone, lipid modifying agents, antilipemic agents, ACE inhibitors, angiotensin II inhibitors and metformin. A sub-analysis comparing the two intervention cohorts was also performed. RESULTS: SGLT2i with insulin was associated with a reduced HR (95% CI) for diabetic macular oedema compared with the control cohort (0.835; 0.780, 0.893), while GLP1-ra with insulin demonstrated a lack of signal with no statistical significance to the HR (1.013; 0.960, 1.069). SGLT2i with insulin was not associated with a clinically significant increase in the risk of developing diabetic retinopathy (1.076; 1.027, 1.127), while GLP1-ra with insulin increased diabetic retinopathy risk (1.308; 1.261, 1.357). Compared with SGLT2i with insulin, GLP1-ra with insulin was associated with higher risk of diabetic retinopathy (1.205; 1.153, 1.259) and diabetic macular oedema (1.130; 1.056, 1.208). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study suggests that the combination of SGLT2i and insulin is associated with lower risk of developing diabetic macular oedema. However, the use of GLP1-ra was associated with an increased risk of diabetic retinopathy in individuals with type 2 diabetes also taking insulin. A comparative analysis showed favourable outcomes with SGLT2i and insulin in the development of diabetic macular oedema and diabetic retinopathy. RCTs using dedicated  retinal imaging are required to determine the causal relationship with these therapies.

Obesity is a risk factor for poor response to treatment in early rheumatoid arthritis: a NORD-STAR study.

OBJECTIVE: This report from the NORD-STAR (Nordic Rheumatic Diseases Strategy Trials and Registries) trial aimed to determine if obesity is associated with response to conventional and biological antirheumatic treatment in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: This report included 793 participants with untreated early RA from the randomised, longitudinal NORD-STAR trial, all of whom had their body mass index (BMI) assessed at baseline. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥30 kg/m2. All participants were randomised 1:1:1:1 to one of four treatment arms: active conventional treatment, certolizumab-pegol, abatacept and tocilizumab. Clinical and laboratory measurements were performed at baseline and at 8, 12, 24 and 48-week follow-up. The primary endpoint for this report was response to treatment based on Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) and Simple Disease Activity Index (SDAI) remission and Disease Activity Score with 28 joints using C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) <2.6 stratified by BMI. RESULTS: Out of 793 people included in the present report, 161 (20%) had obesity at baseline. During follow-up, participants with baseline obesity had higher disease activity compared with those with lower BMI, despite having similar disease activity at baseline. In survival analyses, obesity was associated with a lower likelihood of achieving response to treatment during follow-up for up to 48 weeks (CDAI remission, HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.05; SDAI, HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.97; DAS28-CRP <2.6, HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.95). The effect of obesity on response to treatment was not influenced by the treatment arms. CONCLUSION: In people with untreated early RA followed up for up to 48 weeks, obesity was associated with a lower likelihood of good treatment response, irrespective of the type of randomised treatment received. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01491815.

Effect of combination pioglitazone with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists on outcomes in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and real-world study from an international federated database.

AIMS: To evaluate the efficacy and cardiovascular outcomes of combination pioglitazone with either a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) or a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) by conducting a systematic review, meta-analysis, and analysis of a large international real-world database. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS and Web of Science to identify relevant articles for inclusion (PROSPERO [CRD: 42023483126]). Nineteen studies assessing pioglitazone + SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs versus controls were identified, 16 of which were randomized controlled trials. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane-endorsed tools and quality of evidence was assessed using GRADE. We additionally performed a retrospective cohort study of all individuals aged 18 years or over with T2D, using the TriNetX platform. We included propensity-score-matched individuals who were treated for at least 1 year with pioglitazone and a GLP-1RA or pioglitazone and an SGLT2 inhibitor, compared against GLP-1RA and SGLT2 inhibitor monotherapy. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, chronic kidney disease and composite stroke and transient ischaemic attack. RESULTS: The average follow-up in the included studies ranged from 24 to 52 weeks. Combination of pioglitazone with a GLP-1RA reduced glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and weight greater than in controls: mean differences -1% (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.27, -0.74) and -1.19 kg (95% CI -1.80, -0.58), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) or mortality between groups: mean difference - 1.56 mmHg (95% CI -4.48, 1.35; p = 0.30) and relative risk (RR) 0.29 (95% CI 0.07-1.15; p = 0.08), respectively. Combination of pioglitazone with SGLT2 inhibitors reduced HbA1c, weight and SBP to a greater extent than control treatment: mean differences -0.48% (95% CI -0.67, -0.28), -2.3 kg (95% CI -2.72, -1.88) and -2.4 mmHg (95% CI -4.1, -0.7; p = 0.01), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality between groups (RR 1.81, 95% CI 0.30-10.97; p = 0.52). The included trials demonstrated a reduction in risk of heart failure with combination treatment. Similarly, from the real-world database (n = 25 230 identified), pioglitazone and SGLT2 inhibitor combination therapy was associated with reduced risk of heart failure compared to monotherapy alone (hazard ratio 0.50, 95% CI 0.38-0.65; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Both our systematic review/meta-analysis and the real-world dataset show that combination of pioglitazone with either GLP-1RAs or SGLT2 inhibitors is associated with increased weight loss and reduced risk of heart failure compared with monotherapy.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Causal associations of central and peripheral risk factors with knee osteoarthritis: a longitudinal and Mendelian Randomisation study using UK Biobank data.

ABSTRACT: Our aim was to investigate relative contributions of central and peripheral mechanisms to knee osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis and their independent causal association with knee OA. We performed longitudinal analysis using data from UK-Biobank participants. Knee OA was defined using International Classification of Diseases manual 10 codes from participants' hospital records. Central mechanisms were proxied using multisite chronic pain (MCP) and peripheral mechanisms using body mass index (BMI). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated, and proportional risk contribution (PRC) was estimated from receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. To estimate the causal effects, we performed 2-sample multivariable Mendelian Randomisation (MR) analysis. We selected genetic instruments from the largest Genome Wide Association Study of BMI (N = 806,834) and MCP (N = 387,649) and estimated the instruments genetic associations with knee OA in the largest available dataset (62,497 cases and 333,557 control subjects). The multivariable MR was performed using modified inverse-variance weighting methods. Of the 203,410 participants, 6% developed knee OA. Both MCP (OR 1.23, 95% CI; 1.21-1.24) and BMI (1.10, 95% CI; 1.10-1.11) were associated with knee OA diagnosis. The PRC was 6.9% (95% CI; 6.7%-7.1%) for MCP and 21.9% (95% CI; 21.4%-22.5%) for BMI; the combined PRC was 38.8% (95% CI; 37.9%-39.8%). Body mass index and MCP had independent causal effects on knee OA (OR 1.76 [95% CI, 1.64-1.88] and 1.83 [95% CI, 1.54-2.16] per unit change, respectively). In conclusion, peripheral risk factors (eg, BMI) contribute more to the development of knee OA than central risk factors (eg, MCP). Peripheral and central factors are independently causal on knee OA.