Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

Relationship of various COVID-19 antibody titer with individual characteristics and prediction of future epidemic trend in Xiamen City, China.

Background: Reinfection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised concerns about how reliable immunity from infection and vaccination is. With mass testing for the virus halted, understanding the current prevalence of COVID-19 is crucial. This study investigated 1,191 public health workers at the Xiamen Center for Disease Control, focusing on changes in antibody titers and their relationship with individual characteristics. Methods: The study began by describing the epidemiological characteristics of the study participants. Multilinear regression (MLR) models were employed to explore the associations between individual attributes and antibody titers. Additionally, group-based trajectory models (GBTMs) were utilized to identify trajectories in antibody titer changes. To predict and simulate future epidemic trends and examine the correlation of antibody decay with epidemics, a high-dimensional transmission dynamics model was constructed. Results: Analysis of epidemiological characteristics revealed significant differences in vaccination status between infected and non-infected groups (χ2=376.706, P<0.05). However, the distribution of antibody titers among the infected and vaccinated populations was not significantly different. The MLR model identified age as a common factor affecting titers of immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), and neutralizing antibody (NAb), while other factors showed varying impacts. History of pulmonary disease and hospitalization influenced IgG titer, and factors such as gender, smoking, family history of pulmonary diseases, and hospitalization impacted NAb titers. Age was the sole determinant of IgM titers in this study. GBTM analysis indicated a "gradual decline type" trajectory for IgG (95.65%), while IgM and NAb titers remained stable over the study period. The high-dimensional transmission dynamics model predicted and simulated peak epidemic periods in Xiamen City, which correlated with IgG decay. Age-group-specific simulations revealed a higher incidence and infection rate among individuals aged 30-39 years during both the second and third peaks, followed by those aged 40-49, 50-59, 18-29, and 70-79 years. Conclusions: Our study shows that antibody titer could be influenced by age, previous pulmonary diseases as well as smoking. Furthermore, the decline in IgG titers is consistent with epidemic trends. These findings emphasize the need for further exploration of these factors and the development of optimized self-protection countermeasures against reinfection.

Comparative analysis and prediction of avian influenza in Shangrao city, China from 2016 to 2022.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of vaccination, COVID-19 pandemic and migration of migratory birds on the avian influenza positivity rate in Shangrao City and to predict the future avian influenza positivity rate. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect nucleic acids of avian influenza A viruses. 1795 samples were collected between 2016 and 2022, of which 1086 were positive. In addition, there were seven human cases of avian influenza. The results showed that the positivity rate of H9 subtype in Shangrao City was higher than usual during the COVID-19 pandemic and migratory birds. Predictions suggest that the H9 subtype positivity rate in Shangrao City will be on the rise in the future. In recent years, the H5 positivity rate has gradually increased. Migratory birds and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to an increase in H9 subtype positivity. Therefore, the prevention and control of them should be strengthened.

Assessment of transmissibility and measures effectiveness of SARS in 8 regions, China, 2002-2003.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a form of atypical pneumonia which took hundreds of lives when it swept the world two decades ago. The pathogen of SARS was identified as SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and it was mainly transmitted in China during the SARS epidemic in 2002-2003. SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 have emerged from the SARS metapopulation of viruses. However, they gave rise to two different disease dynamics, a limited epidemic, and an uncontrolled pandemic, respectively. The characteristics of its spread in China are particularly noteworthy. In this paper, the unique characteristics of time, space, population distribution and transmissibility of SARS for the epidemic were discussed in detail. Methods: We adopted sliding average method to process the number of reported cases per day. An SEIAR transmission dynamics model, which was the first to take asymptomatic group into consideration and applied indicators of R 0, Reff, Rt to evaluate the transmissibility of SARS, and further illustrated the control effectiveness of interventions for SARS in 8 Chinese cities. Results: The R 0 for SARS in descending order was: Tianjin city (R 0 = 8.249), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shanxi Province, Hebei Province, Beijing City, Guangdong Province, Taiwan Province, and Hong Kong. R 0 of the SARS epidemic was generally higher in Mainland China than in Hong Kong and Taiwan Province (Mainland China: R 0 = 6.058 ± 1.703, Hong Kong: R 0 = 2.159, Taiwan: R 0 = 3.223). All cities included in this study controlled the epidemic successfully (Reff<1) with differences in duration. Rt in all regions showed a downward trend, but there were significant fluctuations in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong and Taiwan Province compared to other areas. Conclusion: The SARS epidemic in China showed a trend of spreading from south to north, i.e., Guangdong Province and Beijing City being the central regions, respectively, and from there to the surrounding areas. In contrast, the SARS epidemic in the central region did not stir a large-scale transmission. There were also significant differences in transmissibility among eight regions, with R0 significantly higher in the northern region than that in the southern region. Different regions were able to control the outbreak successfully in differences time.

Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990-2021.

Background: The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China. Methods: The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering, and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model (APC). Results: Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females. In addition, the results of the APC model showed that the age, period, and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV, and the incidence was higher in males than in females. The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years (mean: 21.76/100,000), especially in males (mean: 31.53/100,000) than in females (mean:11.67/100,000). Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age (mean: 21.40/100,000), especially males (mean: 31.17/100,000) than females (mean: 11.63/100,000). The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population. Conclusions: The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend, but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females. The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age. More targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented for males and the elderly.

Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches. METHODS: A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination. RESULTS: The median value of effective reproduction number (Reff) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82-5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95-3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [C] and q) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10-8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor (Cq) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%. CONCLUSIONS: Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.