[Effect of non-diabetic postoperative hyperglycemia on complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy].

Objective: To examine the association of hyperglycemia and postoperative complications in non-diabetic patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD). Methods: The clinical data of 209 non-diabetic patients who underwent PD from January 2012 to June 2018 at Department of Pancreatic and Biliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University and met the inclusion criteria were retrospectively analyzed. According to the diagnostic criteria of postoperative hyperglycemia, the patients were divided into postoperative hyperglycemia group (167 cases, 79.9%) and control group(42 cases, 20.1%). The propensity score matching(PSM) method was used to eliminate the difference between groups(caliper value=0.02; 38 cases in control group including 30 males and 8 females with age of 59.0 years;38 cases in postoperative hyperglycemia group including 32 males and 6 females with age of 61.0 years;37 cases of pancreatic head carcinoma,30 cases of periampullary carcinoma and 9 cases of benign diseases). A comparative analysis was applied for preoperative data, surgical related indicators and postoperative complication rates.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used to calculate the area under the curve(AUC) of blood glucose values on postoperative day 1,3 and 5(POD1, POD3, POD5), to determine the high-risk blood glucose cutoff value of complications and to evaluate its sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of postoperative complications. Results: Univariate analysis showed that the differences in gender, body mass index, preoperative blood glucose, and serum urea nitrogen levels were statistically significant before PSM.There was no significant difference in the preoperative data between the two groups after PSM. Compared with the control group, the incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (31.6% vs. 5.3%), abdominal infection(29.0% vs. 7.9%) and Clavien-Dindo Ⅲ-Ⅴ complications(31.6% vs.7.9%) were statistically different(χ(2)=7.092,P=0.008; χ(2)=4.290,P=0.038; χ(2)=5.316,P=0.021), respectively. According to the AUC on POD3,the blood glucose value ≥8.860 mmol/L was an independent risk factor for pancreatic fistula with sensitivity of 58.3% and specificity of 76.9%,the blood glucose value ≥9.130 mmol/L was an independent risk factor for abdominal infection with sensitivity of 54.5% and specificity of 81.5% and the blood glucose value ≥7.685 mmol/L was independent risk factor of Clavien-Dindo Ⅲ-Ⅴ complications with sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 57.7%. Conclusions: Postoperative hyperglycemia in non-diabetic patients is associated with postoperative pancreatic fistula, abdominal infection, and Clavien-Dindo Ⅲ-Ⅴ complications.According to the early postoperative blood glucose value,the occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula, abdominal infection and Clavien-Dindo Ⅲ- Ⅴ complications can be effectively predicted.

[Establishment of multiple predictor models of severe acute pancreatitis in elderly patients].

Objective: To investigate the prognostic factors related to the severity of acute pancreatitis and to establish the multiple predictor models of severe acute pancreatitis(SAP) in elderly patients. Methods: Clinical data of 146 consecutive elderly patients who met the inclusion criteria between January 2014 and May 2017 at Department of Pancreatic and Biliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University were retrospectively collected and analyzed, wherein 88 cases were mild acute pancreatitis, 29 cases were moderately severe acute pancreatitis and 29 cases were SAP. The patients data were subjected to univariate analysis and multiple classified Logistic regression analysis for independent prognostic factors of the severity of acute pancreatitis in elderly patients. Unweighted predictive score(unwScore) and weighted predictive score(wScore)for SAP in elderly patients were established according which the receiver-operating characteristic(ROC) curves of independent prognostic factors and predictor models were produced. The cutoff values of independeut prognostic factors and predictor models were determined. The area under the curve, the sensitivity, the specificity, the positive predictive value and the negative predictive value to verify the predictive efficiency of the independent prognostic factors and predictor models were calculated. Results: Procalcitonin(PCT)(Z=10.564, P=0.000), blood urea nitrogen(BUN)(Z=22.231, P=0.003), serum creatinine(Scr)(Z=14.151, P=0.030), serum calcium(Z=34.979, P=0.032) and pleural effusion(χ(2)=28.463, P=0.015) were independent prognostic factors of the severity of acute pancreatitis by univariate analysis and multiple classified Logistic regression analysis in elderly patients. Respectively, the area under the curve of PCT, BUN, Scr, serum calcium and pleural effusion were 0.908, 0.737, 0.701, 0.753, 0.712, the sensitivity were 0.828, 0.621, 0.552, 0.690, 0.517, the specificity were 0.915, 0.786, 0.846, 0.966, 0.906, the positive predictive value were 70.6%, 41.9%, 47.1%, 83.3%, 57.7%, the negative predictive value were 95.5%, 89.3%, 88.4%, 92.6%, 88.3%. Respectively, the area under the curve of unwScore and wScore were 0.915 and 0.953, the sensitivity were 0.759 and 0.931, the specificity were 0.889 and 0.915, the positive predictive value were 62.9% and 73.0%, the negative predictive value were 93.7% and 98.2%. Conclusions: PCT, BUN, Scr, serum calcium and pleural effusion were independent prognostic factors of the severity of acute pancreatitis in elderly patients. The multiple predictor models of SAP in elderly patients have a good predictive efficiency, which may provide valuable clinical reference for prediction and treatment.