When does obesity exert its effect in conferring risk of developing RA: a large study in cohorts of symptomatic persons at risk.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a known risk factor for developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, it is unclear whether obesity exerts its risk effect during the asymptomatic or the symptomatic clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) phase of risk. To improve understanding of the effect of obesity on RA development, we aimed to (1) compare body mass index (BMI) at CSA onset to BMI of the general population and (2) study within CSA patients if obesity increases the risk for progression to RA. METHODS: 1107 symptomatic persons at risk for RA from four cohorts (CSA Leiden, CSA Rotterdam, SONAR and TREAT EARLIER placebo arm) were studied. For the first aim, baseline BMI was compared with age-matched/sex-matched BMI of the general population. Patients were stratified for anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) status. Regarding the second aim, the association between BMI and inflammatory arthritis (IA) development during 2 years was studied with Cox regression analysis within each cohort and via meta-analysis in all cohorts. RESULTS: CSA patients of all cohorts were more often obese than the general population (respectively 21.9% vs 14.0%, 25.7% vs 14.5%, 26.7% vs 14.5% and 33.3% vs 14.9%, in CSA Leiden, CSA Rotterdam, SONAR, TREAT EARLIER placebo arm). Both ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative CSA patients had a higher frequency of obesity. Within CSA, obesity was not associated with IA development compared to normal weight (pooled effect in meta-analysis of four cohorts HR 1.01 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.08)). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is not associated with RA development within CSA patients but BMI has already increased in CSA compared to the general population. Obesity, therefore, presumably exerts its risk effect at an early asymptomatic phase of RA development, rather than being associated with the disease processes that ultimately result in clinical arthritis.

Improving our understanding of the paradoxical protective effect of obesity on radiographic damage: a large magnetic resonance imaging-study in early arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity conveys a risk for RA development, while paradoxically, associating with less radiographic progression after RA diagnosis. Using MRI we can study this surprising association in detail from MRI-detected synovitis and osteitis to MRI-detected erosive progression, which precedes radiographic progression. Previous research suggested obesity associates with less osteitis and synovitis. We therefore aimed to (i) validate the previously suggested association between BMI and MRI-detected osteitis/synovitis; (ii) study whether this is specific for ACPA-positive or ACPA-negative RA or also present in other arthritides; (iii) study whether MRI-detected osteitis associates with MRI-detected erosive progression; and (iv) study whether obesity associates with MRI-detected erosive progression. METHODS: We studied 1029 early arthritis patients (454 RA, 575 other arthritides), consecutively included in Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic. At baseline patients underwent hand-and-foot MRI that were RAMRIS-scored, and 149 RA patients underwent follow-up MRIs. We studied associations between baseline BMI and MRI-detected osteitis/synovitis (using linear regression), and erosive progression (using Poisson mixed models). RESULTS: In RA, higher BMI associated with less osteitis at disease onset (ß = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) but not with synovitis. Higher BMI associated with less osteitis in ACPA-positive RA (ß = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.97), ACPA-negative RA (ß = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95, 0.99) and other arthritides (ß = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 0.99). Over 2 years, overweight and obesity associated with less MRI-detected erosive progression (P = 0.02 and 0.03, respectively). Osteitis also associated with erosive progression over 2 years (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High BMI relates to less osteitis at disease onset, which is not confined to RA. Within RA, high BMI and less osteitis associated with less MRI-detected erosive progression. This suggests that the protective effect of obesity on radiographic progression is exerted via a path of less osteitis and subsequently fewer MRI-detected erosions.

Rheumatoid arthritis prevention in arthralgia: fantasy or reality?

The concept of a 'window of opportunity' in treating a disease assumes the existence of a time frame during which the trajectory of the disease can be effectively and permanently modified. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), optimal timing of this period is presumed to be during the phase before arthritis is clinically apparent and disease is diagnosed. Several proof-of-concept trials of treatment during the 'arthralgia' phase of RA have been completed in the past 4 years, with the underlying notion that temporary treatment at this stage could prevent the development of RA or induce a sustained reduction in the burden of disease. This Review summarizes the results of these trials and reflects on the outcomes in relation to the patients' perspectives. Overall, the majority of symptomatic at-risk individuals could benefit from a fixed period treatment, even if RA does not develop. Various factors must be taken into consideration when translating these findings into clinical practice. More evidence is needed to target the individuals at highest risk, and additional tools are needed to monitor treatment and guide decisions about whether treatment can be discontinued. Without these tools, there is a paradoxical risk of seemingly increasing the incidence of the disease and prolonging disease duration, which is the opposite of what the concept of intervening in the window of opportunity entails.

The Natural Sequence in Which Subclinical Inflamed Joint Tissues Subside or Progress to Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Study of Serial MRIs in the TREAT EARLIER Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The natural trajectory of clinical arthritis progression at the tissue level remains elusive. We hypothesized that subclinical inflammation in different joint tissues (synovitis, tenosynovitis, osteitis) increases in a distinct temporal order in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) who develop rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and subsides in a different sequence when CSA spontaneously resolves. METHODS: We studied 185 serial magnetic resonance images (MRIs) from CSA patients with subclinical joint inflammation from the placebo arm of the TREAT EARLIER trial: 52 MRIs from 21 RA progressors (MRIs conducted at 1 year before, at 4 months before, and upon RA development), and 133 MRIs from 35 patients with spontaneous resolution of pain (MRIs conducted at baseline and at 4, 12, and 24 months). MRIs were scored for osteitis, synovitis, and tenosynovitis. We used cross-lagged models to evaluate 2 types of time patterns between pairs of inflamed tissues: a simultaneous pattern (coinciding changes) and a subsequent pattern (inflammatory changes in 1 tissue preceding changes in another tissue). RESULTS: In patients who developed RA, synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis increased simultaneously. Increasing osteitis occurred in the final 4 months before RA diagnosis, following incremental tenosynovitis and synovitis changes during the 1 year to 4 months before diagnosis (P < 0.01). In anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative patients who progressed to RA, osteitis increased just before RA development. In patients with pain resolution, simultaneous decreases in synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis occurred, with tenosynovitis decreasing in the first 4 months after CSA onset preceding decreasing synovitis and osteitis during 4-12 months (P = 0.02 and P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: We identified natural sequences of subclinical inflammation in different joint tissues, which deepens our understanding of clinical arthritis and RA development. During RA progression, increasing osteitis followed previous increases in tenosynovitis and synovitis. During pain resolution, tenosynovitis decreased first, followed by decreasing synovitis and osteitis.

Interosseous tendon inflammation in the hands of patients with clinically suspect arthralgia: analysis of MRI data from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation around the tendons of interosseous muscles of the hand (interosseous tendon inflammation) was recently observed with MRI for the first time in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and in at-risk individuals with detectable anti-citrullinated protein antibodies, generating the hypothesis that interosseous tendon inflammation precedes clinical arthritis. To better understand the role of interosseous tendon inflammation during the development of rheumatoid arthritis, we studied the frequency of interosseous tendon inflammation in healthy individuals and in those with arthralgia that was suspected of progressing to rheumatoid arthritis (ie, clinically suspect arthralgia) and the association of interosseous tendon inflammation with other symptoms of inflamed joint tissues and with clinical arthritis development. METHODS: Adult (age ≥18 years) patients who presented with clinically suspect arthralgia and symptom-free (control) individuals underwent contrast-enhanced hand MRI. MRIs were evaluated for interosseous tendon inflammation on the radial and ulnar sides of the second to fifth metacarpophalangeal joints, and for synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis using the rheumatoid arthritis MRI scoring system. Patients with clinically suspect arthralgia were followed up for clinical arthritis development. The presence of local tenosynovium was examined using immunohistochemistry for anti-CD55 and anti-CD68 on tissue from the hands of three embalmed bodies donated for scientific research. The primary outcome for the cross-sectional part of the study was the presence of interosseous tendon inflammation on MRI. The primary outcome for the longitudinal part of the study was development of clinical arthritis. FINDINGS: Between April 3, 2012, and May 20, 2020, 667 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (mean age 44 years [SD 13], 504 [76%] were women and 163 [24%] were men) underwent contrast-enhanced hand MRI. Between Nov 1, 2013, and Nov 30, 2014, 193 symptom-free controls were recruited (mean age 50 years [SD 16], 136 [70%] were women and 57 [30%] were men). Two (1%) of 193 symptom-free controls had interosseous tendon inflammation. Immunohistochemistry of cadaveric hand tissues showed no tenosynovium surrounding interosseous tendons. At inclusion, 67 (10%) of 667 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia had interosseous tendon inflammation (p<0·0001 vs symptom-free controls). Interosseous tendon inflammation occurred more frequently if synovitis (odds ratio [OR] 2·2 [95% CI 1·2-4·2]), or tenosynovitis (OR 9·7 [5·5-17·0]), was present at metacarpophalangeal joints. A three-dimensional MRI reconstruction suggested confluency of interosseous tendon inflammation with metacarpophalangeal-flexor-tenosynovitis. 91 (16%) of 558 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia developed clinical arthritis during follow-up (median total follow-up 25·3 months [95% CI 25·1-25·5]). Patients with clinically suspect arthralgia with interosseous tendon inflammation had a higher risk of developing clinical arthritis (hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [2·8-7·2]), which was attenuated but still significant after adjusting for concomitant synovitis, tenosynovitis, or osteitis (HR 1·7 [1·02-2·8]). INTERPRETATION: Interosseous tendon inflammation is almost absent in symptom-free individuals but occurs in people with clinically suspect arthralgia, in whom it correlates with symptoms and is associated with the development of clinical arthritis. The absence of local tenosynovium suggests that interosseous tendon inflammation arises from expanding local subclinical inflammation in the pre-arthritis phase of rheumatoid arthritis. FUNDING: European Research Council and the Dutch Arthritis Society.

The value of inquiring about functional impairments for early identification of inflammatory arthritis: a large cross-sectional derivation and validation study from the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: Healthcare professionals other than rheumatologists experience difficulties in detecting early inflammatory arthritis (IA) by joint examination. Self-reported symptoms are increasingly considered as helpful and could be incorporated in online tools to assist healthcare professionals, but first their discriminative ability must be assessed. As part of this effort, we evaluated whether inquiring about functional impairments could aid early IA identification. DESIGN: Cross-sectional derivation and validation study. SETTING: Data from two Early Arthritis Recognition Clinics (EARC) in the Netherlands were studied, which are easy access outpatient rheumatology clinics intermediary between primary and secondary care for patients in whom general practitioners suspect but are unsure about IA presence. PARTICIPANTS: Between 2010 and 2014, 997 patients consecutively visited the Leiden-EARC (derivation cohort). Patients consecutively visiting the Groningen EARC (2010-2014, n=506) and Leiden-EARC (2015-2018, n=557) served as validation cohorts. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Physical functioning was assessed with the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability-Index (HAQ); IA presence by physical joint examination by rheumatologists. HAQ questions were studied individually regarding discriminative ability for IA presence. For the best discriminating question, ORs and positive predictive values (PPVs) for IA presence were determined. RESULTS: IA was ascertained in 43% (derivation cohort), 53% and 35% (validation cohorts). In the derivation cohort, IA presence associated with higher mean HAQ scores (0.84 vs 0.73, p=0.003). One question on difficulties with dressing equalled discriminative ability of the total HAQ score. 'Difficulties with dressing' yielded ORs for IA presence of 1.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.4) in the derivation cohort; 2.0 (1.4 to 2.9) and 2.1 (1.5 to 3.1) in the validation cohorts. After adjustments for clinical characteristics these were 1.7 (1.3 to 2.3), 1.6 (1.1 to 2.5) and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.9). PPVs (probabilities of IA for positive answers) ranged 42%-60% and negative predictive values (probabilities of no IA for negative answers) ranged 57%-74%. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-reported difficulties with dressing in patients with suspected IA associated with actual IA presence. Although further validation is required, for example, in primary care, this simple question could be of help in future early IA detection tools for healthcare professionals with limited experience in joint examination.

Improvement of symptoms in clinically suspect arthralgia and resolution of subclinical joint inflammation: a longitudinal study in patients that did not progress to clinical arthritis.

INTRODUCTION: Arthralgia and MRI-detected subclinical inflammation can precede the development of clinically evident rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, part of the patients presenting with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) do not progress to RA. In these 'non-progressors', we aimed to study the frequencies of spontaneous improvement of arthralgia and its relation with the course of subclinical inflammation. METHODS: Between April 2012 and April 2015, 241 patients were considered at risk for RA based on the clinical presentation and included in the CSA cohort. One hundred fifty-two patients with complete data on clinical follow-up did not develop clinical arthritis, of which 98 underwent serial 1.5T MRI scans (wrist, MCP2-5, and MTP1-5 joints) at baseline and after 2 years. MRI scans were scored for synovitis, tenosynovitis, and bone marrow oedema (summed: MRI inflammation score). MRI scores were compared to scores of symptom-free persons. RESULTS: After a 2-year follow-up, 33% of the 'non-progressors' had complete resolution of symptoms; 67% had no symptom resolution and were diagnosed as persistent CSA (44%), osteoarthritis (10%), and tendinomuscular complaints (13%). With symptom-free controls as a reference, patients without resolution did not have increased MRI scores at any time point. However, patients achieving resolution of symptoms had increased MRI inflammation scores at baseline (4.0 vs. 2.6, p = 0.037), but not after 2 years (3.0 vs. 2.6; p = 0.57), and during follow-up, their MRI inflammation score decreased significantly (p = 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: A subgroup of CSA patients that did not progress to RA had spontaneous improvement of symptoms and resolution of subclinical joint inflammation. This time relationship suggests that symptoms and inflammation were causally related in these patients. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying the resolution of inflammation.

Development and validation of a clinical rule for recognition of early inflammatory arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: National and international guidelines recommend prompt referral of patients presenting with inflammatory arthritis (IA), but general practitioners (GPs) feel uncertain in their proficiency to detect synovitis through joint examination, the method of choice to identify IA. Our objective was to develop and validate a rule composed of clinical characteristics to assist GPs and other physicians in identifying IA when in doubt. DESIGN: Split-sample derivation and validation study. SETTING: The Leiden Early Arthritis Recognition Clinic (EARC), a screening clinic for patients in whom GPs suspected but were unsure of the presence of IA. PARTICIPANTS: 1288 consecutive patients visiting the EARC. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations of clinical characteristics with presence of IA were determined using logistic regression in 644 patients, while validating the results in the other 644 patients (split-sample validation). To facilitate application in clinical practice, a simplified rule (with scores ranging from 0 to 7.5) was derived and validated. RESULTS: IA was identified by a rheumatologist in 41% of patients. In univariable analysis, male gender, age ≥60 years, symptom duration <6 weeks, morning stiffness >60 min, a low number of painful joints (1-3 joints), presence of patient-reported joint swelling and difficulty with making a fist were associated with IA in the derivation data set. Using multivariable analysis, a simplified rule consisting of these seven items was derived and validated, yielding an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.78) in the derivation data set. Validation yielded an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.75). Finally, the model was repeated to study predicted probabilities with a lower prevalence of inflammatory arthritis to simulate performance in primary care settings. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule, composed of clinical parameters, had reasonable discriminative ability for IA and could assist physicians in decision-making in patients with suspected IA, increasing appropriateness of healthcare utilisation.

Development of clinically apparent synovitis: a longitudinal study at the joint level during progression to inflammatory arthritis.

INTRODUCTION: Subclinical inflammation, detected by MRI, in patients with arthralgia is predictive for development of inflammatory arthritis (IA). However, within patients that develop IA, the course of inflammation at the joint level during this transition is unknown. This longitudinal study assessed progression of inflammation at the joint level. METHODS: 350 joints (unilateral metacarpophalangeals (MCPs), wrist, metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints) of 35 patients presenting with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) that progressed to IA were studied at presentation with CSA and subsequently when clinical synovitis was first identified at joint examination (median time interval 17 weeks). At both time points, subclinical inflammation (bone marrow oedema, synovitis, tenosynovitis) was evaluated with MRI and joint examination was performed. RESULTS: At presentation with CSA, 71 joints showed subclinical inflammation. During progression to IA, 20% of these joints had resolution of inflammation, 60% had persistent inflammation and 20% progressed to clinical synovitis. Of all joints that had developed clinical synovitis (n = 45), no prior subclinical inflammation was detected in 69%. Similar results were observed for anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: This longitudinal study demonstrated moderate correlations between joints with subclinical inflammation and joints that developed clinical synovitis. These data imply that IA development is a more systemic rather than a locally outgrowing process.

Does information on novel identified autoantibodies contribute to predicting the progression from undifferentiated arthritis to rheumatoid arthritis: a study on anti-CarP antibodies as an example.

BACKGROUND: The presence of autoantibodies is considered an important characteristic of rheumatoid arthritis (RA); therefore, both anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) and rheumatoid factor (RF) are included in the 2010 classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, a considerable number of RA patients lack both these autoantibodies. Recently, several novel autoantibodies have been identified but their value for the classification of RA patients is unclear. Therefore, we studied the value of novel autoantibodies using the presence of anticarbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies as an example for predicting RA development in patients with undifferentiated arthritis (UA). METHODS: There were 1352 UA patients included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (EAC) cohort according to the 1987 criteria. When the 2010 criteria were used, there were 838 UA patients. Of these, we evaluated whether they fulfilled the 1987 or 2010 criteria after 1 year, respectively. Logistic regression analyses were performed with RA as outcome and ACPA, RF, and anti-CarP antibodies as predictors. Analyses were repeated after stratification for ACPA and RF. RESULTS: Thirty-three percent of the 1987-UA patients and 6% of the 2010-UA patients progressed to RA during the first year of follow-up. For the 1987-UA patients, anti-CarP antibodies were associated with progression to RA, an association which remained when a correction was made for the presence of ACPA and RF (odds ratio (OR) 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.4). After stratification for ACPA and RF, anti-CarP antibodies were associated with progression to RA only for ACPA- and RF-negative patients (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.7). For the 2010-UA patients, anti-CarP antibodies were associated with progression to RA; however, they were not when a correction was made for the presence of ACPA and RF (OR 0.8, 95% CI 0.3-2.1). CONCLUSIONS: Our finding that anti-CarP antibodies have no additional value when RA is defined according to the 2010 criteria might be inherent to the composition of the 2010 criteria and therefore might also apply to other novel autoantibodies. Potentially it would be interesting to evaluate other, non-autoantibody biomarkers.

Are MRI-detected erosions specific for RA? A large explorative cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: MRI is recommended in the diagnostic process of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to detect joint damage early. MRI-detected erosions are also present in symptom-free controls, especially at older age. It is unclear if RA-specific MRI-detected erosions can be distinguished from 'physiological' erosions in symptom-free individuals. This study compared MRI-detected erosions of patients with RA with healthy controls and with other arthritides. METHODS: 589 newly presenting patients with early arthritis (238 RA, 351 other arthritides) and 193 symptom-free controls underwent contrast-enhanced 1.5T MRI of unilateral metacarpophalangeal and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints. Total erosion score (according to the Rheumatoid Arthritis MRI Scoring System), number, severity, location of erosions and simultaneous presence of MRI-detected inflammation (synovitis and/or bone marrow oedema) were compared; participants were categorised in three age groups (<40, 40-59, ≥60). RESULTS: Patients with RA had statistically significant higher total erosion scores than controls but scores of individual persons largely overlapped. Grade ≥2 erosions and MTP5 erosions were specific for RA (specificity 98%-100% and 90%-98% for different age groups). MTP1 erosions were only specific if aged <40 (specificity 98%) and erosions with inflammation if aged <60 (specificity 91%-100%). ≥1 of the mentioned erosion characteristics were present in 29% of patients with RA. Comparing patients with RA with other arthritides revealed that grade ≥2 erosions and MTP5 erosions remained specific for RA (specificity ≥89%) as well as MTP1 erosions if aged <40 (specificity 93%), in contrast to erosions combined with inflammation (specificity 49%-85%). CONCLUSIONS: Total erosion scores of individual persons were largely overlapping. Erosion characteristics specific for RA were identified, but were infrequently present. Caution is needed not to overestimate the value of MRI erosions in the diagnostic process.

Moderate use of alcohol is associated with lower levels of C reactive protein but not with less severe joint inflammation: a cross-sectional study in early RA and healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVES: Moderate alcohol consumption is protective against rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development and associated with lower levels of systemic inflammation in RA and in the general population. We therefore hypothesised that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with less severe local inflammation in joints in RA, detected by MRI. Since asymptomatic persons can have low-grade MRI-detected inflammation, we also hypothesised that alcohol consumption is associated with the extent of MRI inflammation in asymptomatic volunteers. METHODS: 188 newly presenting patients with RA and 192 asymptomatic volunteers underwent a unilateral contrast-enhanced 1.5T MRI of metacarpophalangeal, wrist and metatarsophalangeal joints. The MRIs were scored on synovitis, bone marrow oedema and tenosynovitis; the sum of these yielded the MRI inflammation score. MRI data were evaluated in relation to current alcohol consumption, categorised as non-drinkers, consuming 1-7 drinks/week, 8-14 drinks/week and >14 drinks/week. Association between C reactive protein (CRP) level and alcohol was studied in 1070 newly presenting patients with RA. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption was not associated with the severity of MRI-detected inflammation in hand and foot joints of patients with RA (P=0.55) and asymptomatic volunteers (P=0.33). A J-shaped curve was observed in the association between alcohol consumption and CRP level, with the lowest levels in patients consuming 1-7 drinks/week (P=0.037). CONCLUSION: Despite the fact that moderate alcohol consumption has been shown protective against RA, and our data confirm a J-shaped association of alcohol consumption with CRP levels in RA, alcohol was not associated with the severity of joint inflammation. The present data suggest that the pathophysiological mechanism underlying the effect of alcohol consists of a systemic effect that might not involve the joints.

Preventing progression from arthralgia to arthritis: targeting the right patients.

Early treatment is associated with improved outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), suggesting that a 'window of opportunity', in which the disease is most susceptible to disease-modifying treatment, exists. Autoantibodies and markers of systemic inflammation can be present long before clinical arthritis, and maturation of the immune response seems to coincide with the development of RA. The pre-arthritis phase associated with symptoms such as as joint pain without clinical arthritis (athralgia) is now hypothesized to fall within the aforementioned window of opportunity. Consequently, disease modulation in this phase might prevent the occurrence of clinically apparent arthritis, which would result in a persistent disease course if untreated. Several ongoing proof-of-concept trials are now testing this hypothesis. This Review highlights the importance of adequate risk prediction for the correct design, execution and interpretation of results of these prevention trials, as well as considerations when translating these findings into clinical practice. The patients' perspectives are discussed, and the accuracy with which RA development can be predicted in patients presenting with arthralgia is evaluated. Currently, the best starting position for preventive studies is proposed to be the inclusion of patients with an increased risk of RA, such as those identified as fulfilling the EULAR definition of 'arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA'.

Validation of the EULAR definition of arthralgia suspicious for progression to rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives: Recently a EULAR-taskforce defined arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA, in order to allow inclusion of homogeneous sets of arthralgia patients in clinical studies. This longitudinal study aimed (i) to validate this definition in arthralgia patients in whom rheumatologists felt that imminent RA was more likely than other arthralgias [clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA)], that is, the target population fulfilling the entry criterion, and (ii) to explore the performance in arthralgia patients who were referred to secondary care prior to rheumatological evaluation, hence ignoring the entry criterion. Methods: The definition was assessed in 241 Dutch patients identified with CSA by rheumatologists and 113 patients referred to the Umeå university hospital with recent-onset arthralgia in small joints. The external reference was arthritis development <2 years' follow-up. Results: CSA patients with a positive definition (⩾3/7 parameters present) had an increased risk for developing arthritis compared with definition-negative CSA patients (hazard ratio = 2.1, 95% CI: 0.9, 4.7). The sensitivity was 84% and the positive predictive value 30%. In arthralgia patients in whom the definition was applied before rheumatological evaluation, a positive definition was neither sensitive (10%) nor predictive (positive predictive value 3%). Conclusion: The EULAR definition of arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA is sensitive when used to support the rheumatologist's opinion on imminent RA. This validation study shows that the definition, when used as designed, further homogenizes patients that rheumatologists consider at risk for RA. To arrive at a high specificity, the clinical definition needs to be combined with biomarkers.

The risk of individual autoantibodies, autoantibody combinations and levels for arthritis development in clinically suspect arthralgia.

Objectives: Autoantibody testing is helpful for predicting the risk of progression to clinical arthritis in subjects at risk. Previous longitudinal studies have mainly selected autoantibody-positive arthralgia patients, and consequently the predictive values of autoantibodies were evaluated relative to one another. This study assessed the risks for arthritis development of ACPA, RF and/or anti-carbamylated protein antibodies (anti-CarP) in arthralgia patients considered at risk for RA by rheumatologists, based on clinical characteristics (clinically suspect arthralgia, CSA). Methods: The baseline ACPA, RF and anti-CarP autoantibody status of 241 patients, consecutively included in the CSA cohort, was studied for risk of developing clinical arthritis during a median follow-up of 103 (interquartile range: 81-114) weeks. Results: Univariable associations for arthritis development were observed for ACPA, RF and anti-CarP antibodies; hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 8.5 (4.7-15.5), 5.1 (2.8-9.3) and 3.9 (1.9-7.7), respectively. In multivariable analysis, only ACPA was independently associated (HR = 5.1; 2.0-13.2). Relative to autoantibody-negative CSA patients, ACPA-negative/RF-positive patients had HRs of 2.6 (1.04-6.6), ACPA-positive/RF-negative patients 8.0 (2.4-27.4) and ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients 10.5 (5.4-20.6). Positive predictive values for development of clinical arthritis within 2 years were: 38% for ACPA-negative/RF-positive, 50% for ACPA-positive/RF-negative and 67% for ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients. Higher ACPA levels were not significantly associated with increased progression to clinical arthritis, in contrast to higher RF levels. Autoantibody levels were stable during follow-up. Conclusion: ACPA conferred the highest risk for arthritis development and had an additive value to RF. However, >30% of ACPA-positive/RF-positive CSA patients did not develop arthritis during the 2-year follow-up. Thus, CSA and information on autoantibodies is insufficient for accurately identifying imminent autoantibody-positive RA.

Using a reference when defining an abnormal MRI reduces false-positive MRI results-a longitudinal study in two cohorts at risk for rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives: The use of hand and foot MRI in the diagnostic process of RA has been advocated. Recent studies showed that MRI is helpful in predicting progression from clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) to clinical arthritis, and from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to RA. Symptom-free persons can also show inflammation on MRI. This study aimed to evaluate if MRI findings in symptom-free volunteers are relevant when defining a positive MRI. Methods: Two hundred and twenty-five CSA patients and two hundred and one UA patients underwent MRI of MCP, wrist and MTP joints at baseline and were followed for 1 year on progression to arthritis and RA, respectively, as reported previously. MRI was considered positive if ⩾ 1 joint showed inflammation (called uncorrected definition), or if ⩾ 1 joint had inflammation that was present in < 5% of persons of the same age category at the same location (called 5% corrected definition). Test characteristics were compared for both definitions. Results: By using MRI data of symptom-free volunteers as reference, specificity of MRI-detected inflammation increased from 22 to 56% in CSA patients, and from 10 to 36% in UA patients. The sensitivity was not affected; it was 88 and 85% in CSA patients and 93 and 93% in UA patients. The accuracy also increased, from 32 to 60% in CSA patients and 22 to 44% in UA patients. Conclusion: The use of a reference population resulted in a substantial reduction of false-positive results, without influencing the sensitivity. Although common for other tests in medicine, this phenomenon is novel for MRI in the early detection of RA.

Functional limitations in the phase of clinically suspect arthralgia are as serious as in early clinical arthritis; a longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: A phase of arthralgia may precede the emergence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Although several studies have focused on biomarkers, the relevance of this phase for patients is less studied. It is unknown if patients already have functional limitations and if this is correlated to the extent of subclinical inflammation. Therefore, we assessed functional disability in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA), its association with MRI-detected subclinical inflammation and its course during progression to clinical arthritis. METHODS: From April 2012 to March 2015, 241 patients had arthralgia for <1 year and were, based on clinical presentation, considered at risk for RA by their rheumatologists. At baseline, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores were determined and unilateral 1.5 T MRI of metacarpophalangeal, wrist and metatarsophalangeal joints were made. Presence of MRI-detected subclinical inflammation was assessed by summing synovitis, tenosynovitis and bone marrow oedema scores (range 0-189). Patients were followed on arthritis development and HAQ scores were repeated when clinical arthritis had developed. RESULTS: The median HAQ score at presentation with CSA was 0.50. Higher MRI-inflammation scores were associated with higher HAQ scores (ß=0.017, 95% CI=0.004 to 0.030). During median 103 weeks follow-up, 44 patients progressed to clinical arthritis. HAQ scores ≥1.0 were associated with arthritis development (HR=2.50, 95% CI=1.03 to 6.10). Within converters, median HAQ scores did not increase from presentation with CSA to arthritis development (0.88 and 0.75, p=0.36). CONCLUSIONS: HAQ scores ≥1.0 at presentation were associated with the development of clinical arthritis. Functional limitations in the prearthritis phase of CSA were as serious as in the early clinical phase, demonstrating the relevance of CSA from patients' perspectives.

Differences in the symptomatic phase preceding ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA: a longitudinal study in arthralgia during progression to clinical arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Although anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have different aetiopathology, the clinical presentation at the time of diagnosis is similar. This study evaluated whether there are phenotypic differences in the symptomatic pre-RA phase. METHODS: Patients with arthralgia included in the Leiden clinically suspect arthralgia cohort who developed arthritis during follow-up were studied (n=67). Symptoms at symptom onset, symptoms and signs at presentation with arthralgia and time to arthritis development were compared between ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients. RESULTS: In ACPA-negative patients (n=37), the location of initial symptoms less often included the lower extremities (22% vs 50%, p=0.014). At presentation with arthralgia, ACPA-positive patients had a longer symptom duration (median 22 vs 14 weeks, p=0.005), less tender joints (mean 5 vs 9, p=0.007) and less difficulty making a fist (11% vs 43%, p=0.004). However, after presentation with arthralgia, ACPA-positive patients developed arthritis more quickly (median 6 vs 18 weeks, p=0.015). A partial least squares regression analysis showed clustering of ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients based on the above-mentioned clinical variables. CONCLUSION: This study is the first showing that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients have clinical differences in the symptomatic phase preceding clinical arthritis. This contributes to the notion that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA develop differently.

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of hand and foot MRI for early Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Objectives: To assess the diagnostic value of MRI for early RA. In some RA patients, a classifiable diagnosis cannot be made at first presentation; these patients present with unclassified arthritis (UA). The use of MRI for early diagnosis of RA is recommended, yet the evidence for its reliability is limited. Methods: MRI of hand and foot was performed in 589 early arthritis patients included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (229 presented with RA, 159 with other arthritides and 201 with UA). Symptom-free controls provided a reference for defining an abnormal MRI. In preliminary investigations, MRI of patients who presented with RA was compared with MRI of symptom-free controls and of patients with other arthritides. Thereafter, the value of MRI in early RA diagnosis was determined in UA patients using the 1-year follow-up on fulfilling the 1987 RA criteria and start of disease-modifying drugs as outcomes. Results: Preliminary investigations were promising. Of the UA patients, 14% developed RA and 37% started disease-modifying treatment. MRI-detected tenosynovitis was associated with RA development independent of other types of MRI-detected inflammation [odds ratio (OR) = 7.5, 95% CI: 2.4, 23] and also independent of age and other inflammatory measures (swollen joints, CRP) (OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 1.4, 12.9). Within UA patients, the negative predictive value of abnormal tenosynovitis was 95% (95% CI: 89%, 98%) and the positive predictive value 25% (95% CI: 17%, 35%). The performance was best in the subgroup of UA patients presenting with oligoarthritis (18% developed RA): the positive predictive value was 36% (95% CI: 23%, 52%), the negative predictive value was 98% (95% CI: 88%, 100%), the sensitivity was 93% (95% CI: 70%, 99%) and the specificity was 63% (95% CI: 51%, 74%). Conclusion: MRI contributes to the identification of UA patients who will develop RA, mostly in UA patients presenting with oligoarthritis.