BACKGROUND AND AIM: More insight into the incidence of and factors associated with progression following a first episode of acute pancreatitis (AP) would offer opportunities for improvements in disease management and patient counseling. METHODS: A long-term post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort of patients with AP (2008-2015) was performed. Primary endpoints were recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP), chronic pancreatitis (CP), and pancreatic cancer. Cumulative incidence calculations and risk analyses were performed. RESULTS: Overall, 1184 patients with a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR: 7-11) were included. RAP and CP occurred in 301 patients (25%) and 72 patients (6%), with the highest incidences observed for alcoholic pancreatitis (40% and 22%). Pancreatic cancer was diagnosed in 14 patients (1%). Predictive factors for RAP were alcoholic and idiopathic pancreatitis (OR 2.70, 95% CI 1.51-4.82 and OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.40-3.02), and no pancreatic interventions (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.10-3.01). Non-biliary etiology (alcohol: OR 5.24, 95% CI 1.94-14.16, idiopathic: OR 4.57, 95% CI 2.05-10.16, and other: OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.11-7.94), RAP (OR 4.93, 95% CI 2.84-8.58), prior pancreatic interventions (OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.20-8.02), smoking (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.14-4.78), and male sex (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.05-4.05) were independently associated with CP. CONCLUSION: Disease progression was observed in a quarter of pancreatitis patients. We identified several risk factors that may be helpful to devise personalized strategies with the intention to reduce the impact of disease progression in patients with AP.
Pancreatic Diseases , Pancreatic Neoplasms , Pancreatitis, Chronic , Humans , Male , Acute Disease , Disease Progression , Follow-Up Studies , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/complications , Pancreatic Diseases/complications , Pancreatic Neoplasms/etiology , Pancreatic Neoplasms/complications , Pancreatitis, Chronic/complications , Pancreatitis, Chronic/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Recurrence , Risk Factors
BACKGROUND: Refractory coeliac disease type II (RCDII) frequently transforms into an enteropathy-associated T-cell lymphoma (EATL) and therefore requires intensive treatment. Current evaluated treatment strategies for RCDII include cladribine (2-CdA) and autologous stem cell transplantation (auSCT). OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term survival and define clear prognostic criteria for EATL development comparing two treatment strategies. METHODS: A total of 45 patients were retrospectively analysed. All patients received 2-CdA, after which they were either closely monitored (monotherapy, n = 30) or a step-up approach was used including auSCT (step-up therapy, n = 15). RESULTS: Ten patients (22%) ultimately developed EATL; nine of these had received monotherapy. Absence of histological remission after monotherapy was associated with EATL development (p = 0.010). Overall, 20 patients (44%) died with a median survival of 84 months. Overall survival (OS) within the monotherapy group was significantly worse in those without histological remission compared to those with complete histological remission(p = 0.030). The monotherapy group who achieved complete histological remission showed comparable EATL occurrence and OS as compared to the step-up therapy group (p = 0.80 and p = 0.14 respectively). CONCLUSION: Histological response is an accurate parameter to evaluate the effect of 2-CdA therapy and this parameter should be leading in the decisions whether or not to perform a step-up treatment approach in RCDII.
