Interplay between polygenic risk score and solar insolation: Implication for systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis and pathogenesis.

OBJECTIVES: This research elucidates the correlation between solar radiation insolation, polygenic risk score (PRS), and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) diagnosis, utilizing genomic, environmental, and clinical data. METHODS: We included 1,800 SLE participants and 1,800 controls from the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative, genotyped via the Affymetrix Genome-Wide TWB 2.0 SNP Array. The study employed a SLE-PRS tailored for individuals of Taiwanese ancestry, comprising 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). QGIS computed solar radiation insolation from participants' residences. We employed logistic regression to investigate the associations between SLE-PRS, solar insolation susceptibility, and SLE. Additive and multiplicative interactions were utilized to assess the interactions between solar insolation and SLE-PRS regarding the risk of SLE. RESULTS: SLE patients showed decreased solar insolation (p < 0.001). The highest decile of SLE-PRS exhibited a statistically significant lower solar insolation 1, 3, 6, and 12 months prior to diagnosis as compared to the lowest decile. Specifically, there were significant differences observed at 1 and 12 months (p = 0.025 and p = 0.004, respectively). It suggests that higher SLE-PRS correlated with reduced solar insolation tolerance. We observed an increase in SLE risk across ascending SLE-PRS percentiles exclusively in the high solar insolation group, not in the low solar insolation group. However, the interaction effect of SLE-PRS and solar insolation on SLE risk is not statistically significant. Compared to the lowest decile, the highest SLE-PRS decile showed a 10.98-fold increase in SLE risk (95 % CI, 3.773-31.952, p < 0.001). High SLE-PRS scores in conjunction with high solar insolation contribute to SLE incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our study unveils the intertwined nature of UV insolation and polygenic risks in SLE. Future studies should explore the preventative potential of robust solar radiation protection for high-risk individuals before the disease onset.

A quick comparison model on optimizing the efficiency of photovoltaic panels in collecting solar radiation.

Few scholars study light efficiency of solar-cell arrays in theory, while it is difficult to experimentally determine the maximum capacity of a photovoltaic panel to collect solar radiation. This paper proposes a solar energy comparison model (SECM), considering the sunshine duration changes every day to optimize the solar radiation collection model in an ideal state for a whole year, which is easy to use, and can quickly obtain the optimal tilt angle of photovoltaic panels and the solar radiation collecting efficiency enhancement of intelligent light tracking photovoltaic panels. The results show that the sunshine duration is an important factor affecting the solar radiation received by photovoltaic panels. In regions from 66°34'N to 66°34'S, intelligent light tracking photovoltaic panels can increase the collected solar radiation by at least 63.55%, up to 122.51% compared to stationary photovoltaic panels during the effective light time, which is much higher than what most people generally thought. And the advantage of intelligent light tracking photovoltaic panels is more obvious in high latitudes, with a longer and more variable sunshine duration. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the solar radiation collection and photovoltaic panels.

Experimental analysis of dust's impact on solar photovoltaic system efficiency in arid environments: a case study in Southern Algeria.

The purpose of this study is to explore the effects of accumulated dust and weather conditions on the energy generated by solar photovoltaic panels in Ouargla, Algeria, between May 3 and August 3, 2023. For this experiment, two monocrystalline panels with a power output of 390 W manufactured by Zergoune Green Energy Company, as well as data-logging equipment, were used. The first panel was perfectly cleaned before starting every test and the second panel remained uncleaned. On day 90, the cleaned panel maintained an average power of 193 W, while the dusty panel exhibited a lower average power of 139 W. The greatest average reduction in efficiency, approximately 36.32%, occurred after 3 months of exposure to weather conditions. The scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis demonstrates the existence of microscopic dust particles which prevent part of solar radiation away instead of being absorbed by the photovoltaic cells, leading to a drop in the efficiency of the PV module. The primary chemical elements found in dust are oxygen, silicon, aluminum, and magnesium.

Environmental conditions in equine indoor arenas: A descriptive study.

Indoor arenas do not always include mechanical ventilation or stirring fans and occupancy by horses and humans can be sporadic and inconsistent, which creates a challenging space for understanding and predicting variations in temperature, moisture, and airflow. To understand the interior environment within indoor arenas, monitoring was conducted at 15 facilities within 200 kilometres of Lexington, KY. Environmental monitoring of dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, air speeds, and solar radiation took place over 7 days in the winter and summer to examine temporal variability. Environmental data was collected every 5 minutes using the HOBO RX3000 Remote Monitoring Station with the HOBOnet Temp/RH Sensor, HOBOnet Solar Radiation (Silicon Pyranometer) Sensor, and HOBOnet Ultrasonic Wind Speed and Direction Sensor. Clear seasonal differences and diurnal patterns were evident in all environmental conditions, but the relative humidity. The relative humidity and dew point temperatures indicated moisture could be an issue in many of the indoor arenas. High relative humidity and excess moisture can negatively impact horse and human health as well as the lifespan of the facility. Similar results to previous spatial variability indoor arena characterizations were observed during the environmental monitoring with air speeds being below the threshold for still air in livestock facilities (0.51 m s-1). Sensor technology and implementation provides a better understanding of the interior environment and how indoor arena design can impact it.

Enhancement of effluent degradation by zinc oxide, carbon nitride, and carbon xerogel trifecta on brass monoliths.

In recent years, heterogeneous photocatalysis has emerged as a promising alternative for the treatment of organic pollutants. This technique offers several advantages, such as low cost and ease of operation. However, finding a semiconductor material that is both operationally viable and highly active under solar irradiation remains a challenge, often requiring materials of nanometric size. Furthermore, in many processes, photocatalysts are suspended in the solution, requiring additional steps to remove them. This can render the technique economically unviable, especially for nanosized catalysts. This work demonstrated the feasibility of using a structured photocatalyst (ZnO, g-C3N4, and carbon xerogel) optimized for this photodegradation process. The synthesized materials were characterized by nitrogen adsorption and desorption, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS). Adhesion testing demonstrated the efficiency of the deposition technique, with film adhesion exceeding 90%. The photocatalytic evaluation was performed using a mixture of three textile dyes in a recycle photoreactor, varying pH (4.7 and 10), recycle flow rate (2, 4, and 6 L h-1), immobilized mass (1, 2, and 3 mg cm-2), monolith height (1.5, 3.0, and 4.5 cm), and type of radiation (solar and visible artificials; and natural solar). The structured photocatalyst degraded over 99% of the dye mixture under artificial radiation. The solar energy results are highly promising, achieving a degradation efficiency of approximately 74%. Furthermore, it was possible to regenerate the structured photocatalyst up to seven consecutive times using exclusively natural solar light and maintain a degradation rate of around 70%. These results reinforce the feasibility and potential application of this system in photocatalytic reactions, highlighting its effectiveness and sustainability.

Multi-omics analysis to evaluate the effects of solar exposure and a broad-spectrum SPF50+ sunscreen on markers of skin barrier function in a skin ecosystem model.

Sun exposure induces major skin alterations, but its effects on skin metabolites and lipids remain largely unknown. Using an original reconstructed human epidermis (RHE) model colonized with human microbiota and supplemented with human sebum, we previously showed that a single dose of simulated solar radiation (SSR) significantly impacted the skin metabolome and microbiota. In this article, we further analyzed SSR-induced changes on skin metabolites and lipids in the same RHE model. Among the significantly altered metabolites (log2-fold changes with p ≤ 0.05), we found several natural moisturizing factors (NMFs): amino acids, lactate, glycerol, urocanic acid, pyrrolidone carboxylic acid and derivatives. Analyses of the stratum corneum lipids also showed that SSR induced lower levels of free fatty acids and higher levels of ceramides, cholesterols and its derivatives. An imbalance in NMFs and ceramides combined to an increase of proinflammatory lipids may participate in skin permeability barrier impairment, dehydration and inflammatory reaction to the sun. Our skin model also allowed the evaluation of an innovative ultraviolet/blue light (UV/BL) broad-spectrum sunscreen with a high sun protection factor (SPF50+). We found that using this sunscreen prior to SSR exposure could in part prevent SSR-induced alterations in NMFs and lipids in the skin ecosystem RHE model.

Effects of Foliar Protector Application and Shading Treatments on the Physiology and Development of Common Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.).

High solar radiation, combined with high temperature, causes losses in plant production. The application of foliar protector in plants is associated with improvements in photosynthesis, reduction in leaf temperature and, consequently, improved productivity. Two experiments were conducted. The first aimed to assess the efficacy of foliar protector versus artificial shading in mitigating the negative impacts of excessive radiation and temperature on the physiology, growth, and yield of common bean plants. The second experiment focused on comparing the timing in cycle plants (phenological phases) of foliar protector application in two different bean cultivars (BRS Fc 104 and BRS MG Realce) under field conditions. Artificial shading provided better results for photosynthesis, transpiration, growth and production compared to the application of foliar protector. In the field conditions experiment, the application timing of the foliar protector at different phenological phases did not increase productivity in the cultivars. The application of foliar protector under the conditions studied was not effective in mitigating the negative impacts of high solar radiation and temperature on common bean cultivation. However, it is opportune to evaluate the application of foliar protector in bean plants grown under conditions with water deficit, high solar radiation and high temperature.

Phytoplankton Assemblage over a 14-Year Period in the Adriatic Sea: Patterns and Trends.

Considering the role of phytoplankton in the functioning and health of marine systems, it is important to characterize its responses to a changing environment. The central Adriatic Sea, as a generally oligotrophic area, is a suitable environment to distinguish between regular fluctuations in phytoplankton and those caused by anthropogenic or climatic influences. This study provides a long-term perspective of phytoplankton assemblage in the central eastern Adriatic Sea, with 14 years of continuous time series data collected at two coastal and two offshore stations. The predominant phytoplankton groups were diatoms and phytoflagellates, but their proportion varied depending on the vicinity of the coast, as evidenced also by the distribution of chlorophyll a. In the coastal environment, the phytoplankton biomass was substantially higher, with a higher proportion of microphytoplankton, while small phytoplankton accounted for the majority of biomass in the offshore area. In addition, a decreasing trend in diatom abundance was observed in the coastal waters, while such trend was not so evident in the offshore area. Using a neural gas algorithm, five clusters were defined based on the contribution of the major groups. The observed increase in diversity, especially in dinoflagellates, which outnumber diatom taxa, could be a possible adaptation of dinoflagellates to the increased natural solar radiation in summer and the increased sea surface temperature.

Assessment of solar geoengineering impact on precipitation and temperature extremes in the Muda River Basin, Malaysia using CMIP6 SSP and GeoMIP6 G6 simulations.

The concept of solar geoengineering remains a topic of debate, yet it may be an effective way for cooling the Earth's temperature. Nevertheless, the impact of solar geoengineering on regional or local climate patterns is an active area of research. This study aims to evaluate the impact of solar geoengineering on precipitation and temperature extremes of the Muda River Basin (MRB), a very important agricultural basin situated in the northern Peninsular Malaysia. The analysis utilized the multi-model ensemble mean generated by four models that contributed to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP6). These models were configured to simulate the solar irradiance reduction (G6solar) and stratospheric sulfate aerosols (G6sulfur) strategies as well as the moderate (SSP245) and high emission (SSP585) experiments. Prior to the computation of extreme indices, a linear scaling approach was employed to bias correct the daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. The findings show that the G6solar and G6sulfur experiments, particularly the latter, could be effective in holding the increases in both annual and monthly mean precipitation totals and temperature extremes close to the increases projected under SSP245. For example, both G6solar and G6sulfur experiments project increases of temperature over the basin of 2 °C at the end of the 21st century as compared to 3.5 °C under SSP585. The G6solar and G6sulfur experiments also demonstrate some reliability in modulating the increases in precipitation extreme indices associated with flooding to match those under SSP245. However, the G6sulfur experiment may exacerbate dry conditions in the basin, as monthly precipitation is projected to decrease during the dry months from January to May and consecutives dry days are expected to increase, particularly during the 2045-2064 and 2065-2084 periods. Increases dry spells could indirectly affect agricultural and freshwater supplies, and pose considerable challenges to farmers.

Effects of solar radiations on stratum corneum hydration: Part II, protective action of solar filters.

The skin surface lipids (SSLs) film, composed of sebum and keratinocyte membrane lipids, is crucial to the barrier function of the stratum corneum (SC). The first part of this study investigated the impact of solar radiation on the SC based on a novel hydration and dehydration approach using Raman spectroscopy. The SSLs were found to absorb solar light, and thus participate to the protection of the skin surface. However, the protective function of the SSLs may be limited and is dependent to the heterogenous distribution of SSLs over the body surface. To ensure comprehensive protection, synergistic measures such as the application of solar filters are necessary. In this second part of the study, we have evaluated the limits of the protection capacity of SSLs and explored the protective action of a solar filters on both SSLs composition and the water hydration and dehydration kinetics in the SC.

A Coordinating Small Organic Molecule with Tunable Lower Critical Solution Temperature for Efficient Management of Solar Radiation.

Structurally well-defined small molecules with lower critical solution temperature (LCST) behavior offer enormous prospects for fine-tuning their phase transition properties to be "on-demand" applied in the specific scene but are still underexplored. Herein, a novel amphiphilic small LCST molecule is rationally designed and synthesized. The molecule, namely TG, features a conjugation of multiple short ethylene glycol (EG) chains with the functional coordinating terpyridine (Tpy) moiety. The molecule TG demonstrates excellent LCST behavior down to 0.05 × 10-3 m in a water solution. And a cloud point Tcp = 30.9 °C with a very short thermal hysteresis ΔT = 0.2 °C and good reversibility can be achieved when c = 0.1 × 10-3 m. The excellent LCST properties of TG have enabled its successful performance as the smart window for solar radiation management with the ∆Tlum, ∆TIR, and ∆Tsol being 83.6%, 49.1%, and 67.2%, respectively. Moreover, the presence of Tpy moiety in TG enables its coordination with Ru3+ and the resulting complex also exhibits modulated LCST behavior with different concentration-dependent Tcp. These studies would provide novel small-molecule-based scaffolds for constructing better solar radiation management systems as well as other thermal-responsive smart materials.

Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems.

Wildfire activity is increasing globally. The resulting smoke plumes can travel hundreds to thousands of kilometers, reflecting or scattering sunlight and depositing particles within ecosystems. Several key physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes are controlled by factors affected by smoke. The spatial and temporal scales of lake exposure to smoke are extensive and under-recognized. We introduce the concept of the lake smoke-day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke-day exposure in North America from 2019 to 2021. Because smoke can be transported at continental to intercontinental scales, even regions that may not typically experience direct burning of landscapes by wildfire are at risk of smoke exposure. We found that 99.3% of North America was covered by smoke, affecting a total of 1,333,687 lakes ≥10 ha. An incredible 98.9% of lakes experienced at least 10 smoke-days a year, with 89.6% of lakes receiving over 30 lake smoke-days, and lakes in some regions experiencing up to 4 months of cumulative smoke-days. Herein we review the mechanisms through which smoke and ash can affect lakes by altering the amount and spectral composition of incoming solar radiation and depositing carbon, nutrients, or toxic compounds that could alter chemical conditions and impact biota. We develop a conceptual framework that synthesizes known and theoretical impacts of smoke on lakes to guide future research. Finally, we identify emerging research priorities that can help us better understand how lakes will be affected by smoke as wildfire activity increases due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities.

Association between solar radiation and mood disorders among Gulf Coast residents.

BACKGROUND: Climate factors such as solar radiation could contribute to mood disorders, but evidence of associations between exposure to solar radiation and mood disorders is mixed and varies by region. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of solar radiation with depression and distress among residents living in U.S. Gulf states. METHODS: We enrolled home-visit participants in the Gulf Long-Term Follow-up Study who completed validated screening questionnaires for depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9, N = 10,217) and distress (Kessler Psychological Distress Questionnaire, N = 8,765) for the previous 2 weeks. Solar radiation estimates from the Daymet database (1-km grid) were linked to residential addresses. Average solar radiation exposures in the seven (SRAD7), 14 (SRAD14), and 30 days (SRAD30) before the home visit were calculated and categorized into quartiles (Q1-Q4). We used generalized linear mixed models to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between solar radiation and depression/distress. RESULTS: Higher levels of SRAD7 were non-monotonically inversely associated with depression [PRVs.Q1 (95%CI): Q2 = 0.81 (0.68, 0.97), Q3 = 0.80 (0.65, 0.99), Q4 = 0.88 (0.69, 1.15)] and distress [PRVs.Q1 (95%CI): Q2 = 0.76 (0.58, 0.99), Q3 = 0.77 (0.57, 1.06), Q4 = 0.84 (0.58, 1.22)]. Elevated SRAD14 and SRAD30 appeared to be associated with decreasing PRs of distress. For example, for SRAD14, PRs were 0.86 (0.63-1.19), 0.80 (0.55-1.18), and 0.75 (0.48-1.17) for Q2-4 versus Q1. Associations with SRAD7 varied somewhat, though not significantly, by season with increasing PRs of distress in spring and summer and decreasing PRs of depression and distress in fall. IMPACT STATEMENT: Previous research suffered from exposure misclassification, which impacts the validity of their conclusions. By leveraging high-resolution datasets and Gulf Long-term Follow-up Cohort, our findings support an association between increased solar radiation and fewer symptoms of mood disorders.

Prediction of daily global solar radiation in different climatic conditions using metaheuristic search algorithms: a case study from Türkiye.

Today's many giant sectors including energy, industry, tourism, and agriculture should closely track the variation trends of solar radiation to take more benefit from the sun. However, the scarcity of solar radiation measuring stations represents a significant obstacle. This has prompted research into the estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) for various regions using existing climatic and atmospheric parameters. While prediction methods cannot supplant the precision of direct measurements, they are invaluable for studying and utilizing solar energy on a global scale. From this point of view, this paper has focused on predicting daily GSR data in three provinces (Afyonkarahisar, Rize, and Agri) which exhibit disparate solar radiation distributions in Türkiye. In this context, Gradient-Based Optimizer (GBO), Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO), Barnacles Mating Optimizer (BMO), Sine Cosine Algorithm (SCA), and Henry Gas Solubility Optimization (HGSO) have been employed to model the daily GSR data. The algorithms were calibrated with daily historical data of five input variables including sunshine duration, actual pressure, moisture, wind speed, and ambient temperature between 2010 and 2017 years. Then, they were tested with daily data for the 2018 year. In the study, a series of statistical metrics (R2, MABE, RMSE, and MBE) were employed to elucidate the algorithm that predicts solar radiation data with higher accuracy. The prediction results demonstrated that all algorithms achieved the highest R2 value in Rize province. It has been found that SCA (MABE of 0.7023 MJ/m2, RMSE of 0.9121 MJ/m2, and MBE of 0.2430 MJ/m2) for Afyonkarahisar province and GBO (RMSE of 0.8432 MJ/m2, MABE of 0.6703 MJ/m2, and R2 of 0.8810) for Agri province are the most effective algorithms for estimating GSR data. The findings indicate that each of the metaheuristic algorithms tested in this paper has the potential to predict daily GSR data within a satisfactory error range. However, the GBO and SCA algorithms provided the most accurate predictions of daily GSR data.

Analytical and experimental analysis of concrete temperature and energy considering open-air environmental variations.

Longwave radiation is an important open-air environmental factor that can significantly affect the temperature of concrete, but it has often been ignored in the temperature analysis of open-air concrete structures. In this article, an improved analytical model of concrete temperature was proposed by considering solar radiation, thermal convection, thermal conduction and especially longwave radiation. Temperature monitoring of an open-air concrete block was carried out to verify the proposed model and analyze the heat energy characteristics of open-air concrete. As demonstrated by the open-air experiment, under the influence of longwave radiation, the temperature at the top of the concrete block could decrease rapidly at night and even become lower than the minimum temperature at its bottom. Compared with the analytical model that ignores longwave radiation, the improved model that includes it better matches the measured temperature. According to the energy analysis, although solar radiation controls the transient variation in heat energy, the heat exchange caused by longwave radiation were more than that caused by convection on sunlit surfaces, which indicates the importance of considering longwave radiation.

Rain, rain, go away, come again another day: do climate variations enhance the spread of COVID-19?

The spread of infectious diseases was further promoted due to busy cities, increased travel, and climate change, which led to outbreaks, epidemics, and even pandemics. The world experienced the severity of the 125 nm virus called the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019. Many investigations revealed a strong correlation between humidity and temperature relative to the kinetics of the virus's spread into the hosts. This study aimed to solve the riddle of the correlation between environmental factors and COVID-19 by applying RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) with the designed research question. Five temperature and humidity-related themes were deduced via the review processes, namely 1) The link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks, 2) Regional area, 3) Climate and weather, 4) Relationship between temperature and humidity, and 5) the Governmental disinfection actions and guidelines. A significant relationship between solar activities and pandemic outbreaks was reported throughout the review of past studies. The grand solar minima (1450-1830) and solar minima (1975-2020) coincided with the global pandemic. Meanwhile, the cooler, lower humidity, and low wind movement environment reported higher severity of cases. Moreover, COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases were higher in countries located within the Northern Hemisphere. The Blackbox of COVID-19 was revealed through the work conducted in this paper that the virus thrives in cooler and low-humidity environments, with emphasis on potential treatments and government measures relative to temperature and humidity. HIGHLIGHTS: • The coronavirus disease 2019 (COIVD-19) is spreading faster in low temperatures and humid area. • Weather and climate serve as environmental drivers in propagating COVID-19. • Solar radiation influences the spreading of COVID-19. • The correlation between weather and population as the factor in spreading of COVID-19.

Exploring the impact of solar radiation on skin microbiome to develop improved photoprotection strategies.

The skin microbiome undergoes constant exposure to solar radiation (SR), with its effects on health well-documented. However, understanding SR's influence on host-associated skin commensals remains nascent. This review surveys existing knowledge on SR's impact on the skin microbiome and proposes innovative sun protection methods that safeguard both skin integrity and microbiome balance. A team of skin photodamage specialists conducted a comprehensive review of 122 articles sourced from PubMed and Research Gateway. Key terms included skin microbiome, photoprotection, photodamage, skin cancer, ultraviolet radiation, solar radiation, skin commensals, skin protection, and pre/probiotics. Experts offered insights into novel sun protection products designed not only to shield the skin but also to mitigate SR's effects on the skin microbiome. Existing literature on SR's influence on the skin microbiome is limited. SR exposure can alter microbiome composition, potentially leading to dysbiosis, compromised skin barrier function, and immune system activation. Current sun protection methods generally overlook microbiome considerations. Tailored sun protection products that prioritize both skin and microbiome health may offer enhanced defense against SR-induced skin conditions. By safeguarding both skin and microbiota, these specialized products could mitigate dysbiosis risks associated with SR exposure, bolstering skin defense mechanisms and reducing the likelihood of SR-mediated skin issues.

Changes in wet bulb globe temperature and risk to heat-related hazards in Bangladesh.

The rise in temperatures and changes in other meteorological variables have exposed millions of people to health risks in Bangladesh, a densely populated, hot, and humid country. To better assess the threats climate change poses to human health, the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is an important indicator of human heat stress. This study utilized high-resolution reanalysis data from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ERA5) to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in outdoor WBGT across Bangladesh from 1979 to 2021, employing Liljegren's model. The study revealed an increase in the annual average WBGT by 0.08-0.5 °C per decade throughout the country, with a more pronounced rise in the southeast and northeast regions. Additionally, the number of days with WBGT levels associated with high and extreme risks of heat-related illnesses has shown an upward trend. Specifically, during the monsoon period (June to September), there has been an increase of 2-4 days per decade, and during the pre-monsoon period (March to May), an increase of 1-3 days per decade from 1979 to 2021. Furthermore, the results indicated that the escalation in WBGT has led to a five-fold increase in affected areas and a three-fold increase in days of high and extreme heat stress during the monsoon season in recent years compared to the earlier period. Trend and relative importance analyses of various meteorological variables demonstrated that air temperature is the primary driver behind Bangladesh's rising WBGT and related health risks, followed by specific humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.

Bloom dynamics under the effects of periodic driving forces.

Phytoplankton bloom received considerable attention for many decades. Different approaches have been used to explain the bloom phenomena. In this paper, we study a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton (NPZ) model consisting of a periodic driving force in the growth rate of phytoplankton due to solar radiation and analyse the dynamics of the corresponding autonomous and non-autonomous systems in different parametric regions. Then we introduce a novel aspect to extend the model by incorporating another periodic driving force into the growth term of the phytoplankton due to sea surface temperature (SST), a key point of innovation. Temperature dependency of the maximum growth rate (µmax) of the phytoplankton is modelled by the well-known Q10 formulation: [Formula: see text] , where µ0 is maximum growth at 0oC. Stability conditions for all three equilibrium points are expressed in terms of the new parameter ρ2, which appears due to the incorporation of periodic driving forces. System dynamics is explored through a detailed bifurcation analysis, both mathematically and numerically, with respect to the light and temperature dependent phytoplankton growth response. Bloom phenomenon is explained by the saddle point bloom mechanism even when the co-existing equilibrium point does not exist for some values of ρ2. Solar radiation and SST are modelled using sinusoidal functions constructed from satellite data. Our results of the proposed model describe the initiation of the phytoplankton bloom better than an existing model for the region 25-35° W, 40-45° N of the North Atlantic Ocean. An improvement of 14 days (approximately) is observed in the bloom initiation time. The rate of change method (ROC) is applied to predict the bloom initiation.