Comparative analysis and evolution of civilian versus combatant mortality ratios in Israel-Gaza conflicts, 2008-2023.

Background: There is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised. Results: The model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6-66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1-54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7-15.4%) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51-0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82-1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50-9.29) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008-2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict. Conclusion: Findings imply a progressive shift in Israel's rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.

Leaving no one behind in armed conflict-affected settings of Africa: is universal health coverage a possibility or mirage?

The world is off track six years to the 2030 deadline for attaining the sustainable development goals and universal health coverage. This is particularly evident in Africa's armed conflict-affected and humanitarian settings, where pervasively weak health systems, extreme poverty and inequitable access to the social dimensions and other determinants of health continue to pose significant challenges to universal health coverage. In this article, we review the key issues and main barriers to universal health coverage in such settings. While our review shows that the current health service delivery and financing models in Africa's armed conflict-affected settings provide some opportunities to leapfrog progress, others are threats which could hinder the attainment of universal health coverage. We propose four key approaches focused on addressing the barriers to the three pillars of universal health coverage, strengthening public disaster risk management, bridging the humanitarian-development divide, and using health as an enabler of peace and sustainable development as panacea to addressing the universal health coverage challenge in these settings. The principles of health system strengthening, primary health care, equity, the right to health, and gender mainstreaming should underscore the implementation of these approaches. Moving forward, we call for more advocacy, dialogue, and research to better define and adapt these approaches into a realistic package of interventions for attaining universal health coverage in Africa's armed conflict-affected settings.

Damage to the public health system caused by war-related looting or vandalism in the Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia.

Background: The war that started on November 4, 2020, in the Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia severely affected the health sector. However, there is no available evidence to suggest the economic damage caused to the public health system because of war-related looting or vandalism. This study was aimed at estimating the cost of war-related looting or vandalism in Tigray's public health system in Northern Ethiopia in 2021. Methods: A provider perspective, a mixed costing method, a retrospective cross-sectional approach, a 50% inflation rate, and a 50 Ethiopian birr equivalent to one United States dollar ($) for the money value were used. The data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel, taking into consideration the Sendai framework indicators. Results: The total economic cost of the war-related looting or vandalism in monetary terms was more than $3.78 billion, and the damage to the economic value in monetary terms was more than $2.31 billion. Meanwhile, the direct economic loss to the health system in monetary terms was more than $511 million. According to this assessment, 514 (80.6%) health posts, 153 (73.6%) health centers, 16 (80%) primary hospitals, 10 (83.3%) general hospitals, and 2 (100%) specialized hospitals were damaged and/or vandalized either fully or partially due to the war. Conclusion: This war seriously affected the public health sector in the Tigray region. The Federal Government of Ethiopia, the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia, the Tigrayan Government, the Tigray Regional Health Bureau, and the international community must make efforts to find resources for the revitalization of the damaged, plundered, and vandalized healthcare system.

Inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected areas and the Colombian peace agreement: an oaxaca-blinder change decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: The present study analyzes inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected regions of Meta, Colombia and socioeconomic factors contributing to the existence and changes in catastrophic expenditures before and after the sign of Colombian Peace Agreement with FARC-EP guerilla group in 2016. METHODS: The study uses the results of the survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) conducted in 1309 households of Meta, Colombia, a territory historically impacted by armed conflict, for the years 2014 and 2018. We define catastrophic expenditures as health expenditures above 20% of the capacity to pay of a household. We disaggregate the changes in inequalities in catastrophic expenditures through the Oaxaca-Blinder change decomposition method. RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic expenditures slightly increased between 2014 to 2018, from 29.3 to 30.7%. Inequalities in catastrophic expenditures, measured through concentration indexes (CI), also increased from 2014 (CI: -0.152) to 2018 (CI: -0.232). Results show that differences in catastrophic expenditures between socioeconomic groups are mostly attributed to an increased influence of specific sociodemographic variables such as living in rural zones, being a middle-aged person, living in conflict-affected territories, or presenting any type of mental and physical disability. CONCLUSIONS: Conflict-deescalation and the peace agreement may have facilitated lower-income groups to have access to health services, especially in territories highly impacted by conflict. This, consequently, may have led to higher levels of out-of-pocket expenditures and, therefore, to higher chances of experiencing catastrophic expenditures for lower-income groups in comparison to higher-income groups. Therefore, results indicate the importance of designing policies that guarantee access to health services for people in conflict -affected regions but also, that minimize health care inequalities in out-of-pocket payments that may arouse between people at different socioeconomic groups.

Prevalence of clinical malaria and household characteristics of patients in tribal districts of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, disproportionately affects poor people more than any other disease of public health concern in developing countries. In resource-constrained environments, monitoring the occurrence of malaria is essential for the success of national malaria control programs. Militancy and military conflicts have been a major challenge in monitoring the incidence and controlling malaria and other emerging infectious diseases. The conflicts and instability in Afghanistan have resulted in the migration of refugees into the war-torn tribal districts of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province and the possible introduction of many contagious epidemics. Although malaria is very common in all tribal districts, molecular, clinical and epidemiological data are scarce in these high-burden districts. Therefore, for the proper surveillance, detection, and control of malaria, obtaining and analyzing reliable data in these districts is essential. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All 1,127 malaria-suspected patients were sampled within the transmission season in the tribal districts of KPK province between March 2016 to December 2018. After a detailed demographic and clinical investigation of malaria-suspected patients, the data were recorded. The data of the control group was collected simultaneously at the same site. They were considered as uncomplicated cases for statistical analyses. Blood samples were collected from malaria-suspected patients for the detection of Plasmodium species using microscopy and nested PCR (nPCR). Microscopy and nPCR examination detected 78% (n = 882) and 38% (n = 429) Plasmodium-positive patients, respectively. Among1,127 of 429nPCR detected cases with both species of malaria, the frequency of complications was as follows: anemia (n = 71; 16.5%), decompensated shock (n = 40; 9%), hyperpyrexia (n = 117; 27%), hyperparasitaemia (n = 49; 11%) hypoglycemia (n = 45; 10.5%), jaundice (n = 54; 13%), multiple convulsions (n = 37; 9%), and petechia (n = 16; 4%). We observed that 37% (n = 157 out of 429) of those patients infected by both Plasmodium species were children between the ages of 1 and 15 years old. The results revealed that Bajaur (24%), Kurram (20%), and Khyber (18%) districtshada higher proportion of P. vivax than P. falciparum cases. Most of the malaria cases were males (74%). Patients infected by both Plasmodium species tended to less commonly have received formal education and ownership of wealth indicators (e.g., fridge, TV set) was lower. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria in tribal districts of the KPK province largely affects young males. P. vivax is a major contributor to the spread of malaria in the area, including severe malaria. We observed a high prevalence of P. vivax in the Bajaur district. Children were the susceptible population to malaria infections whereas they were the least expected to use satisfactory prevention strategies. A higher level of education, a possession of TV sets, the use of bed nets, the use of repellent fluids, and fridges were all associated with protection from malaria. An increased investment in socio-economic development, a strong health infrastructure, and malaria education are key interventions to reduce malaria in the tribal districts.

Global Burden of Violence.

This article documents the increasing numbers of children impacted annually by 1 or more types of violence against children and describes the range of types of injuries and their immediate and long-term impacts on child outcomes. The article describes the growing number of international collaborations to decrease the numbers of children impacted by violence and to mitigate the consequences thereof, with a particular emphasis on children living in war zones.

The effects of armed conflict on the health of women and children.

Women and children bear substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of armed conflicts. This Series paper focuses on the direct (due to violence) and indirect health effects of armed conflict on women and children (including adolescents) worldwide. We estimate that nearly 36 million children and 16 million women were displaced in 2017, on the basis of international databases of refugees and internally displaced populations. From geospatial analyses we estimate that the number of non-displaced women and children living dangerously close to armed conflict (within 50 km) increased from 185 million women and 250 million children in 2000, to 265 million women and 368 million children in 2017. Women's and children's mortality risk from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict, with more intense and more chronic conflicts leading to greater mortality increases. More than 10 million deaths in children younger than 5 years can be attributed to conflict between 1995 and 2015 globally. Women of reproductive ages living near high intensity conflicts have three times higher mortality than do women in peaceful settings. Current research provides fragmentary evidence about how armed conflict indirectly affects the survival chances of women and children through malnutrition, physical injuries, infectious diseases, poor mental health, and poor sexual and reproductive health, but major systematic evidence is sparse, hampering the design and implementation of essential interventions for mitigating the harms of armed conflicts.

Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes.

BACKGROUND: Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response time. METHODS: We compiled a list of cholera outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states from 2008 to 2019. We searched for peer-reviewed articles and epidemiological reports. We evaluated delays from the dates of symptom onset of the primary case, and the earliest dates of outbreak detection, investigation, response, and confirmation. Information on how the outbreak was alerted was summarized. A branching process model was used to estimate epidemic size at each delay. Regression models were used to investigate the association between predictors and delays to response. RESULTS: Seventy-six outbreaks from 34 countries were included. Median delays spanned 1-2 weeks: from symptom onset of the primary case to presentation at the health facility (5 days, IQR 5-5), detection (5 days, IQR 5-6), investigation (7 days, IQR 5.8-13.3), response (10 days, IQR 7-18), and confirmation (11 days, IQR 7-16). In the model simulation, the median delay to response (10 days) with 3 seed cases led to a median epidemic size of 12 cases (upper range, 47) and 8% of outbreaks ≥ 20 cases (increasing to 32% with a 30-day delay to response). Increased outbreak size at detection (10 seed cases) and a 10-day median delay to response resulted in an epidemic size of 34 cases (upper range 67 cases) and < 1% of outbreaks < 20 cases. We estimated an annual global decrease in delay to response of 5.2% (95% CI 0.5-9.6, p = 0.03). Outbreaks signaled by immediate alerts were associated with a reduction in delay to response of 39.3% (95% CI 5.7-61.0, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: From 2008 to 2019, median delays from symptom onset of the primary case to case presentation and to response were 5 days and 10 days, respectively. Our model simulations suggest that depending on the outbreak size (3 versus 10 seed cases), in 8 to 99% of scenarios, a 10-day delay to response would result in large clusters that would be difficult to contain. Improving the delay to response involves rethinking the integration at local levels of event-based detection, rapid diagnostic testing for cluster validation, and integrated alert, investigation, and response.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Users of rehabilitation services in 14 countries and territories affected by conflict, 1988-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the demographic and clinical characteristics of people attending physical rehabilitation centres run or supported by the International Committee of the Red Cross in countries and territories affected by conflict. METHODS: Of 150 such rehabilitation centres worldwide, 38 use an electronic patient management system. We invited all 38 centres to participate. We extracted de-identified data from 1988 to 2018 and categorized them by sex, age, country or territory and reason for using rehabilitation services. FINDINGS: Thirty-one of the 38 rehabilitation centres in 14 countries and territories participated. We included data for 287 274 individuals. Of people using rehabilitation services, 61.6% (176 949/287 274) were in Afghanistan, followed by 15.7% (44 959/287 274) in Cambodia. Seven places had over 9000 service users each (Afghanistan, Cambodia, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Myanmar, Somalia and Sudan). Overall, 72.6% (208 515/287 274) of service users were male. In eight countries, more than half of the users were of working age (18-59 years). Amputation was the most common reason for using rehabilitation services; 33.3% (95 574/287 274) of users were people with amputations, followed by 13.7% (39 446/287 274) with cerebral palsy. The male predominance was greater in the population aged 18-34 years (83.1%; 71 441/85 997) and in people with amputations (88.6%; 84 717/95 574) but was evident across all places, age groups and health conditions. CONCLUSION: The considerably lower attendance of females at the rehabilitation centres highlights the need to understand the factors that affect the accessibility and acceptability of rehabilitation for women and girls in conflict settings.